Category Archives: Brexit

Rishi Sunak would take a softer approach in crunch talks with the European Union if he succeeded Boris Johnson next year, according to a commentator.

Mujtaba Rahman, the head of Eurasia Groups Europe practice, highlighted how the Prime Minister is facing a backlash over alleged rule-breaking Christmas parties, as well as a rebellion over new Covid restrictions, while Labour has taken a lead in polls.

Mr Rahman said next May's local elections could be the final straw for Mr Johnson and spark a vote of no confidence if they do not go well for the Tories.

Writing for Politico, Mr Rahman said: "But what if Johnson doesnt make it?

"As it stands, the two front-runners to succeed him next year are Chancellor Rishi Sunak and Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, who are both already on discreet manoeuvres given Johnsons troubles.

"Although Sunak probably wouldnt want to risk alienating Tory members by advertising it in advance, as prime minister, he would likely adopt a more pragmatic approach to EU relations than Johnson or Truss.

"His approach would be driven by economic realities rather than ideology, and he would be more likely than Truss to actually 'move on' from Brexit and eventually reset relations with the EU."

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Brexit LIVE: Frost's 'sneaky play' to twist EU into backing down over hated deal unveiled - Daily Express

A senior Conservative MP has warned Brexit is destroying British agriculture, as he condemned a government minister for failing to act.

A furious Neil Parish laid into Kevin Foster, the immigration minister, for ignoring a recommendation to make it easier to bring in EU butchers and other workers leading to a huge shortage.

The chair of the Commons Environment Committee warned that planting of vegetables was down 25 per cent and poultry production by 12.5 per cent, since Brexit.

We are seeing our industry slowly being destroyed, Mr Parish told the minister demanding to know why the migration advisory committees call for farm workers to be placed on the shortage list was rejected.

I thought Brexit was about encouraging production in this country, not discouraging it. This is down to labour shortages.

Mr Parish accused the minister of claiming its no problem, it wasnt our problem adding: It is, Im sorry minister.

But Mr Foster hit back, arguing there was a problem with uptake and blaming employers for failing to sign up to a visa scheme to bring in workers.

Warnings of farm labour shortages have raged for months, after Brexit slammed the door on the ability of EU nationals to move to the UK andworkfreely.

In October, ministers performed a U-turn by allowing 800 butchers and 5,500 poultry workers to enter the UK on short-term visas having rejected putting them on the shortage list, to ease entry.

But Mr Foster admitted the number of butchers actually in place is under 100 after the farm industry protested at the cost and bureaucracy of the visa system.

He criticised companies that have failed to apply to sponsor visas, telling the committee: They could be used immediately if people wanted to do so.

But Sheryll Murray, a fellow Tory committee member, told the minister: We are seeing pigs slaughtered on the farm because of your slow process.

The criticism came as a coalition of agriculture groups attacked short-term fixes that were failing to find a long-term solution to the supply crisis.

Dr Zoe Davies, chief executive of the National Pig Association (NPA), said: The UK pig sector is still in meltdown as worker shortages continue to impact our ability to process the number of pigs we already have on farms.

The National Farmers Union (NFU) demanded a commitment to avoid Britains self-sufficiency in food production falling from the current 60 per cent.

Britains farmers are world-leaders in producing climate friendly food and, over the past 18 months, have been working hard to keep shelves and fridges full despite many being impacted by severe supply chain issues, particularly worker shortages, said Minette Batters, the NFU president.

Government has tried to paper over the cracks with short-term fixes but, if we want to avoid this crisis continuing, long-term solutions are urgently needed.

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Senior Tory MP warns Brexit destroying British agriculture and condemns government failure to act - The Independent

Nearly a third of British companies that import goods from the EU are not at all prepared for full post-Brexit customs checks, according to a survey of business leaders, sparking fears of increased congestion at ports and worsening supply chain disruption.

From 1 January 2022, companies that import goods will no longer be able to take advantage of a temporary six-month grace period allowing them to delay making customs declarations to HMRC and paying any tariffs due. They will from that date have to do so immediately.

Three in 10 of the leaders of firms that import from the EU polled by the Institute of Directors (IoD) said they were not at all prepared for the change, with 37% of small businesses and nearly a quarter of large ones saying they were not ready.

Kitty Ussher, chief economist at the IoD, said: In just three weeks time, significant changes to our customs arrangements are going to be introduced, for which a large portion of businesses are either unprepared or simply unaware.

This will exacerbate existing supply chain problems, leading to further congestion at ports, as well as extra costs from accidental non-compliance for many businesses. Government needs to ramp up an awareness and advertising campaign around these changes, simplifying the guidance, so that all importing businesses feel confident they know how to keep supplies flowing into the new year.

Amanda Barnes, chief executive of media and events business Faversham House, said the upcoming changes were already causing problems. Our issue with import controls is more from the perspective of how it is affecting our overseas and UK exhibitors who are trying to bring pieces of equipment and machinery into the UK to exhibit at our shows, she said.

There is loads of confusion out there and the costs of temporarily importing goods to show at exhibitions has become so prohibitive that some of our exhibitors are downsizing their stands or trying to cancel.

The paperwork too is putting them off. I think it will be a real barrier to trade in the short term at least.

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The IoD surveyed 580 of its members and after removing those firms that said the EU import rule changes were not applicable to them, the results were based on the responses of the remaining 250 business leaders. Members were also asked what they would most like to see improved about the business environment they face.

The UKs new trading relationship with the EU was the number one issue, with 16% of votes, with skills shortages second at 15% and the UKs economic situation third with 12%.

A government spokesperson said: Overall trader readiness for the introduction of import controls is strong. The government is also on track to deliver new systems, infrastructure and resourcing needed for these controls.

We have been running a targeted campaign across print, radio and online to signpost businesses to the relevant information and officials across government are leading a series of sector-based webinars to help traders and hauliers get ready.

Recognising that the global pandemic has affected supply chains in the UK and across Europe, we announced earlier this year that we will be introducing import controls in phases throughout 2022 in order to give businesses more time to prepare.

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A third of UK importers not ready for full Brexit customs checks survey - The Guardian

Mujtaba Rahman, the head of Eurasia Groups Europe practice, highlighted how the Prime Minister is facing a backlash over alleged rule-breaking Christmas parties, as well as a rebellion over new Covid restrictions, while Labour has taken a lead in polls. Mr Rahman said next May's local elections could be the final straw for Mr Johnson and spark a vote of no confidence if they do not go well for the Tories.

The expert added that the Chancellor and Foreign Secretary Liz Truss are favourites to replace the Prime Minister.

But Mr Rahman said Mr Sunak is likely to take a less bullish approach to Brussels than Mr Johnson.

It comes as the two sides are wrangling over the Northern Ireland Protocol.

Writing for Politico, Mr Rahman said: "But what if Johnson doesnt make it?

"As it stands, the two front-runners to succeed him next year are Chancellor Rishi Sunak and Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, who are both already on discreet manoeuvres given Johnsons troubles.

"Although Sunak probably wouldnt want to risk alienating Tory members by advertising it in advance, as prime minister, he would likely adopt a more pragmatic approach to EU relations than Johnson or Truss.

"His approach would be driven by economic realities rather than ideology, and he would be more likely than Truss to actually 'move on' from Brexit and eventually reset relations with the EU.

"Truss, however, would likely stick to Johnsons hardball approach.

READ MORE:Lord Frost's 'softer tone' causing 'alarm'

Both sides are trying to reach an agreement that would reduce customs paperwork and the number of checks required on goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland, with the EU making a number of concessions to ease trade frictions.

But a dispute around the role of the European Court of Justice continues to be a major stumbling block.

Brexit minister Lord Frost has been having weekly meetings with his EU counterpart Maros Sefcovic in a bid to break the deadlock.

Reports have suggested that the UK has watered down its demand that the role of the ECJ must be removed from the protocol.

Meanwhile, tensions have also been flaring between the UK and France over post-Brexit fishing arrangements.

With outstanding issues on the protocol and fishing, Brexit is expected to spark contention into 2022.

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Brexit betrayal: Sunak tipped to twist knife into Boris and fold to EU in crunch talks - Daily Express

During the closing stages of Margaret Thatchers premiership, I said to the Conservative MP John Biffen: I think Mrs Thatcher must be suffering.

This was surprising, coming from such a long-term critic of Thatcherism as myself, but so was the reply from Biffen, a former member of her cabinet and also, for years, her leader of the Commons. Yes, he replied, but is she suffering enough?

Biffen was strongly opposed to the poll tax a proposal for local authority taxation which would apply the same rate to rich and poor general opposition to which eventually contributed to Thatchers fall from power in 1990.

Biffen was also MP for the Oswestry constituency, which later became North Shropshire. North Shropshire is in the news. A solid Conservative seat where there is going to be a byelection on Thursday as a result of the sleaze-enforced, if reluctant, resignation of Owen Paterson, but one which, according to the latest odds, the Liberal Democrats might win, given the way the public finally seems to be catching up with what an appalling government Boris Johnson has landed them with Johnson, of course, being in the lead when it comes to the debasement of modern British political standards.

Now, I did not get where I am today by making political forecasts, let alone following the betting. Nevertheless, byelections can spring surprises. There was an interesting one way back in 1985, when my then colleague Adam Raphael was covering the Brecon and Radnor byelection, which Neil Kinnock, then leader of the Labour party, had obviously hoped his candidate would win. Neil and Adam had a 10 bet on the result. But Labours support was dented by an incendiary speech by the National Union of Mineworkers leader, Arthur Scargill, and the seat went by a narrow margin to the Liberals.

Neil paid up with a 10 cheque, which Adam did not cash, but instead framed for posterity. Alas, it turns out that the writing on the cheque has completely faded away. Posterity will have to take their word for it.

If the North Shropshire byelection does produce an upset, this might well be the final nail in the coffin of Johnsons troubled premiership. But whether this might benefit Labour is an open question. Kinnock and his deputy Roy Hattersley had reasonable hopes they would defeat Thatcher in a general election, but by ruthlessly dispensing with her in favour of John Major, the Tories got themselves a new lease of life.

The good news is that Labours present leader, Sir Keir Starmer, has also had a new lease of life with his forensic assault on this frightful government. But we must wait to see whether he and Labour can turn up the heat on the disaster of Brexit.

I was disappointed to read an article by Lionel Barber, former editor of the Financial Times, in which he said that he and some distinguished colleagues on the new Independent Commission on UK-EU Relations were united in the view that there can be no question of refighting the Brexit referendum or reopening the question of EU membership. The war is over, the Leavers won.

This is desperately defeatist. They acknowledge that Brexit isnt working then say the task of the commission is to help fix it.

But Brexit cant be fixed. As Kinnock recently observed: You cannot mend a burst tyre. Day by day the news gets worse: our so-called Brexit negotiator Lord Frost has alarmed the Biden administration with what his renegotiation of the Northern Ireland protocol might portend for peace in Northern Ireland, and he unashamedly wants to abandon the European social model to which the UK, by way of having previously championed the single market, has made a major contribution.

Frost and his colleagues fantasise about a trade deal with the US which is simply not on the cards. Trump-era tariffs on US imports of steel and aluminium? Down for members of the EU, but not for the UK. Pig farmers? Sheep farmers? Thousands of small and medium-sized British businesses? All suffering from the absurdity of Brexit.

It is more than five years since 37% of the electorate voted for Brexit, in response to a number of grossly misleading promises. As I wrote recently, I ask many people I encounter what they think of Brexit, and the response is decidedly negative. As for the younger generation the many people who have become eligible to vote since 2016 my strong impression is that they are overwhelmingly in favour of rejoining. Labour should go for it!

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Fighting byelections or Brexit, the rule is the same: dont give up - The Guardian

UK consumers could be eating Australian beef linked to deforestation on the back of a new post-Brexit free trade deal signed in the summer, an investigation has found.

Satellite analysis has identified an area of deforestation over the past three years that is more than twice the size of Manhattan across farms in Queensland, the largest beef-producing state in Australia.

The deforestation includes the habitats of threatened species such as koalas, flying foxes, quolls, and several endangered species of bird and frog.

Millions of native animals, including Australias iconic koala are killed or left homeless when bulldozes destroy their habitat, said Gemma Plesman, Queensland campaign manager for the Wilderness Society, who carried out the satellite analysis with Unearthed, the investigative arm of Greenpeace. .

Australia is the only country in the developed world in WWFs list of global deforestation hotspots. About 3% of the forest area in eastern Australia, which includes Queensland, was lost between 2004 and 2017.

Under the terms of the trade deal signed this year, Australias beef producers will be given tariff-free access to the UK market. But campaigners argue that beef is the number one driver of the countrys deforestation crisis, and particularly in Queensland.

The Queensland government introduced new laws aimed at curbing deforestation in 2018, yet the analysis says loopholes are allowing clearing to continue.

The analysis found more than 13,500 hectares (33,359 acres) of deforestation across 57 properties, with more than half of the cleared area (56%) across 54 beef properties categorised as where habitats for threatened species are likely to occur.

The loophole identified by Unearthed exempts vast tracts of hectares of forests that have previously been cleared even if they are over 15 years old and supposed to be classified as high-value regrowth.

More than two-thirds of the deforestation identified in the analysis is forest or woodland mapped as exempt from all clearing restrictions despite being over 15 years old and having grown back to maturity.

Regrowth forests can often be vital habitats for threatened species. A Queensland civil servant who has worked on the subject, speaking on condition of anonymity, said they can represent a significant fraction of the remaining extent of endangered ecosystems.

Dr April Reside, a lecturer in wildlife science at the University of Queensland, said the level of clearing identified by the study was really substantial, adding that deforestation risked fragmenting and degrading species habitats, leaving them exposed to invasive species.

Among the 82 species found to be losing habitat was the Southern black-throated finch, an endangered bird which was found to be losing 364 ha.

Reside said: Thats definitely something to be concerned about theyve already lost 88% of their original extent. So theyve got a very small proportion of habitat left, and what they do have left is highly degraded and is not about finch conservation. And its still being cleared.

There are ways of growing beef that dont destroy the environment. Broad-scale land clearing is just lazy you dont have to clear habitats and drive species to extinction in order to get your food, said Prof Brendan Wintle, a conservation ecologist at the University of Melbourne.

The environment bill which became law last month tackles only deforestation in the supply chain that is illegal under local laws.

Nobody wants to be responsible for deforestation, said Dustin Benton, policy director for thinktank Green Alliance. If the rules cant guarantee that, or we cant even get a rider in the UK-Australia trade deal, then they simply dont work.

The National Farmers Union said: The NFU has been clear about its concerns over the agreement in principle with Australia, which could see increased imports of Australian goods, produced at much lower costs and at vast scales of production. There has also been no clarity about how the deal works in tandem with the UKs environmental and climate ambitions.

We believe that the UKs trade policy should champion the climate-friendly food we produce in this country, where we make the most of our maritime climate. Food produced in this way is a far cry from food produced in areas of deforestation or suffering from extreme drought.

A spokesperson for the Queensland Department of Resources said the 2018 laws provided greater protection to high-value remnant and regrowth vegetation and important habitats, including essential habitat for near-threatened wildlife.

Our responsible vegetation management laws continue protect our valuable environment, habitats and the Great Barrier Reef while allowing landholders to manage and grow farm operations that are fundamental to jobs and our economic recovery post-Covid.

Australias Red Meat Advisory Council, the Cattle Council of Australia, AgForce Queensland were all approached for comment.

A spokesperson for the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs said: With our world-leading Environment Act now law, the UK is committed to go further than ever before to clamp down on illegal deforestation and protect forests. Following the COP26 summit, we will maintain the trajectory set by the Glasgow Leaders Declaration and the Forest, Agriculture and Commodity Trade Dialogue on halting and reversing forest loss and greening global supply chains.

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Australian beef linked to deforestation could end up part of post-Brexit trade deal - The Guardian

The European Commissions plans to protect people in precarious jobs in the gig economy could be the most ambitious extension of workers rights from Brussels since Britain left the EU.

If adopted, the plans would mean that gig economy companies, such as Uber and Deliveroo, would have to treat workers as employees with minimum wages (where they exist), sick pay, holidays and better accident insurance, unless they could prove that drivers and couriers were genuinely self-employed.

Workers would also get greater protection against management by algorithm, which would mean they cannot be denied work or fired by a machine whose code is wrapped in secrecy.

The British government will have no hand in making these rules, nor any obligation to apply them. That, after all, was the point of Brexit. Yet British policymakers and firms operating in the UK may find it hard to avoid the gravitational pull from Brussels.

EU law applies only to 450 million people in 27 member states, but its effects can be felt far more widely, as global companies adopt EU rules across their business to cut costs or avoid complexity. The so-called Brussels effect can be seen in the reach of the EUs data protection rules, as well as standards on chemicals, cars and food safety.

Nicolas Schmit, the EU commissioner for jobs, suggested the same effect could apply with the latest gig economy plan. This standard will influence not only the 27 member states and the platforms operating in the 27 member states, this will probably also become some kind of a standard which will apply to other countries or even parts in the world, he told the Guardian.

That judgement might be too soon to call. An estimated 500 gig economy companies are active in the EU. They will probably respond in different ways to the EU legislation, which still has to be agreed in complex, months-long negotiations between EU ministers and MEPs.

Some firms could choose to treat gig workers as employees, as Dutch company Just Eat does, or follow Danish cleaning company Hilfr, which offers employee status to those who have worked more than 100 hours on its platform. Others may seek to adapt their business model, or quit a country altogether if they see no way to be profitable.

In the UK gig economy, companies are having to respond to rulings from courts rather than new legislation. A landmark ruling from the supreme court earlier this year defined Uber drivers as workers who are entitled to the minimum wage and holiday pay. The category of worker, as distinct from employee and the self-employed, was set out in the 1996 Employment Rights Act.

George Maier, an expert on the gig economy at the London School of Economics, said companies had sought to take advantage of ambiguities in a law written for the pre-internet age. At the moment it feels like gig workers, often coming from some of the most disadvantaged backgrounds, have been left to bear the costs associated with fighting for their basic rights in court. This shouldnt have to happen.

Boris Johnson was elected in 2019 on a manifesto promise to introduce measures to protect those in low-paid work and the gig economy, an idea expanded in the Queens speech that year with a pledge to bring forward an employment bill that would protect and enhance workers rights as the UK leaves the EU, making Britain the best place in the world to work.

Nearly two years after that speech, no employment bill has been published by the government.

While the pandemic has knocked many plans off course, there is also an unsettled debate about what Brexit really means. When trying to get his EU withdrawal bill through the Commons in October 2019, the prime minister voiced his commitment to the highest possible standards on workers rights, saying whatever the EU comes up with, we can match it and pass it into the law of this country.

The sentiment he voiced on that day is far from shared across the government. In a little-noticed speech to the Centre for Policy Studies last month, the Brexit minister, David Frost, threw his weight behind a low-tax, light-touch regulation economy on a different path from the EU. If after Brexit all we do is import the European social model, we will not succeed, he said.

The latest EU proposal will add pressure on the government to meet its promise for stronger employment rights, following a pandemic that exposed dependency on low-paid workers in care homes, supermarkets, in delivery vans and on bikes.

The EU proposals will undoubtedly help to inform and inspire unions in the UK, said Tim Sharp at the Trades Union Congress. This is a government that came to office following Brexit saying they would protect and enhance workers rights. I think if workers in the European Union are seen to be gaining rights and having power, then workers here would expect the same.

A spokesperson at the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial strategy said: The UK has one of the best records on workers rights in the world going further than the EU in many areas and we believe the UKs current employment status framework strikes the right balance between the flexibility our economy needs and protections for workers.

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Brexit would be better for UK workers, Boris Johnson promised. But will it? - The Guardian

EVIDENCE of the hugely detrimental impact of Brexit on UK exporters and the countrys economy is continuing to pile up but there is no sign the hidebound Boris Johnson administration cares one whit.

The Centre for European Reform think-tank estimated on Monday that, in October, UK goods trade was 15.7 per cent, or 12.6 billion, lower than it would have been if the country had stayed in the European single market and customs union.

The think-tank, which is focused on making the European Union work better and strengthening the blocs role in the world, bases its estimates in this context on a sophisticated model using a doppelgnger UK. This is a group of countries whose trade and other economic data closely matched that of the UK between the 2016 Brexit referendum and December 2019.

In a general sense, much has been difficult to discern amid the economic fog created by the fall-out from the coronavirus pandemic.

However, the Brexit effects have shone through clearly, and are increasingly apparent for anyone who cares to take an objective look and acknowledge them.

And what the Centre for European Reforms analysis does, by examining the trading performance of the doppelgnger UK, is strip out the impact of the pandemic to shine a light on what the UKs hard Brexit has done to trade.

READ MORE:Ian McConnell:Brexit could have taken many forms. Cheshire Cat Boris Johnson chose this one

The Centre for European Reform notes: The doppelgnger is a subset of countries selected from a larger group of 22 advanced economies by an algorithm. The algorithm finds the countries that, when combined, create a doppelgnger UK that has the smallest possible deviation from the real UK data until December 2019, before the pandemic struck. The data includes goods trade, GDP growth, population, inflation, industrial production as a share of output, as well as some other measures.

The impact of Brexit on the UKs international trade was inevitably going to be huge, given the EU is as a bloc by far the countrys biggest export market. And there has been plenty of evidence at sectoral and company level of huge woes for exporters following the UKs exit from the European single market at the end of last year.

However, the Centre for European Reforms analysis is nevertheless both eye-catching and alarming.

READ MORE:Brexit: Never mind the horizon, Brexit brigade cannot gaze past navel: Ian McConnell

Notably, the Confederation of British Industry, in its latest UK economic forecast published last week, warned that recovery in exports isexpected to be lacklustre, following disappointing growth over this year so far. The CBI also highlighted its expectation that UK business investment will continue to lag other advanced economies.

These astute and entirely credible observations seem to contrast starkly with the hot air emanating from the Johnson administration, which has often appeared at pains to portray the UK as a resurgent colossus now strutting the global stage, free to do as it pleases because of Brexit.

CBI chief economist Rain Newton-Smith said: Let us be candid: UK exports are being outpaced by our global peers which, if allowed to continue, will negatively impact our economy in the long term.

And she declared: Lets not forget the importance of normalising relations with the EU our biggest and nearest trading partner which will aid cooperation in a host of other areas.

The CBI revised down its projection of UK growth this year from 8.2% to 6.9%. And it reduced its forecast of expansion in 2022 from 6.1% to 5.1%.

It noted: Short-term headwinds including rising costs and shortages have grown since the...previous forecast in June.

Responding to news of the CBIs downgrading of its growth forecasts for this year and 2022, Labour MP Hilary Benn, who chairs the cross-party, independent UK Trade and Business Commission which also includes leading business figures, said: While Covid-19 continues to affect the economy, many businesses have told us that the new barriers created by the Governments Brexit deal [have] also damaged growth particularly in exporting.

READ MORE:Brexit: Why does this Tory Government build barriers to growth?

He added: Unless the Government improves their threadbare deal with the EU, UK businesses will face a much greater challenge recovering from this pandemic relative to their overseas counterparts, potentially meaning supply problems and fewer opportunities long into the new year.

The UKs Office for Budget Responsibility also highlighted again the major impact of Brexit on UK exports and imports on October 27, the day on which Chancellor Rishi Sunak presented his latest Budget.

It said: Since our first post-EU referendum EFO (economic and fiscal outlook) in November 2016, our forecasts have assumed that total UK imports and exports will eventually both be 15% lower than had we stayed in the EU. This reduction in trade intensity drives the 4% reduction in long-run potential productivity we assume will eventually result from our departure from the EU.

It was good to see SNP MP Angus MacNeil last month highlight to Secretary of State for International Trade Anne-Marie Trevelyan the huge economic damage from Brexit and the virtually non-existent or imperceptible overall benefit of the New Zealand free trade agreement sealed with great noise in October by the Johnson administration.

Mr MacNeil was chairing a session of the International Trade Committee, at which Ms Trevelyan claimed there isnt a downside to the UK-New Zealand deal. She made this assertion in spite of dire warnings about the likely impact on UK farmers and food producers.

Ms Trevelyan did not try to dispute the major detrimental effect of Brexit on UK gross domestic product, which Mr MacNeil noted was estimated to be at least 4%. And she was not able to come up with figures showing any kind of significant boost to UK GDP from the New Zealand trade deal.

This was no surprise. We might still be waiting for the Department for International Trade to come up with detailed figures on the precise impact of the deal now concluded with New Zealand.

However, the general picture is already crystal clear.

A document published by the Johnson administration last year entitled UK-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement/ The UKs Strategic Approach, declared: A trade agreement with New Zealand is estimated to have limited effects on headline gross domestic product (GDP) in the long run, with the estimated impact on GDP being 0.00% under both scenarios.

Thats zero, to two decimal places.

Figures published by the Theresa May government in November 2018 showed Brexit would, with an average free trade deal with the EU, result in UK GDP in 15 years time being 4.9% lower than if the country had stayed in the bloc if there were no change to migration arrangements. Or 6.7% worse on the basis of zero net inflow of workers from European Economic Area countries. The Tories have, sadly, clamped down on immigration, to the detriment of the UK economy and living standards.

It is the myriad numbers highlighting the damage of leaving the EU, European single market and customs union which tell the real, sorry tale of Brexit. In contrast, the bold mighty-Blighty-style pronouncements of a UK Government which must surely know the actuality of Brexit but refuses to act to mitigate the damage are of no value in assessing the reality.

See the article here:

Ian McConnell: No sign UK Government cares one whit on Brexit woe - HeraldScotland

COVID-19 is killing a high proportion of people in regions of the UK that voted for Brexit in the 2016 referendum, a new report has claimed.

Research by Ludovic Phalippou of the University of Oxford and Betty H.T. Wu of the University of Glasgow has claimed to have found a direct correlation between Brexit-voting districts of the UK and those that have the highest rate of fatalities from COVID-19.

It reveals that the boroughs of Boston, Great Yarmouth, South Holland, and Hartlepool, for example, have the fourth highest fatalities from the virus in the UK and the biggest share of the vote for Brexit, with all four districts voting more than 75% for leave in 2016. By contrast, the 20 boroughs with the lowest death rates all voted heavily for Remain.

For the authors, the results suggest that the same people who were swayed by the arguments in favour of Brexit -- which was defined by a distrust of political and financial elites and populist rhetoric shared via social media -- are also those that resist getting vaccinated against COVID-19 and have been hostile to lockdown measures including curfews and mask-wearing.

"There is a group of people in the population who just rejects any official advice, any mainstream advice, any expert advice, Phalippou told Euronews.

"The question then becomes for researchers, how do you capture these people? How do you have a proxy for these people? Which areas have more of these people?"

Phalippou and Wu said that the result should have "very important consequences for policy and called into question initiatives such as mandatory vaccination, which was recently imposed in Austria.

Many of those that do not want to get vaccinated distrust both pharmaceutical companies and politicians already - and not entirely without reason, Phalippou said.

"There is actually a big academic literature showing how corrupt the process of approving medication is. So there is some underlying truth [to some of these beliefs], he said.

"We need to take them seriously, we need to understand what they say, how they feel, and how we can counter them and their mindset.

Jonathan Berman, author of Anti-vaxxers: How to Challenge a Misinformed Movement, told Euronews the correlation made some sense and found echoes in other areas of the world where populist movements, such as Brexit, had success in recent years.

Recent work in the US, for example, had found a similar crossover between Donald Trump voters and COVID-19 deaths.

Brexit was a very different vote from [Trump, but] the thread I would draw between the two is that both campaigns were populist causes, which by definition are framed as regular people opposed to the elite, Berman said.

The anti-vax movement, he said, appealed to those who were susceptible to populist ideas and who distrusted elites, and the politicians like Trump that have sought to capitalise on that.

Epidemiologists, health boards, and virologists are cast as the elite, he said.

Others suggest that while there may be a correlation between Brexit voters and regions that are suffering hardest from COVID-19, it is too simple to draw a direct line between leave supporters and vaccine scepticism - not least because even in the areas with the highest COVID-19 death rates, vaccination rates are above 60%, far higher than elsewhere in Europe.

In Boston and Skegness, for example, where only 18.9% of residents voted to remain in 2016 and where the death rate per thousand people is 3.1, double that of the remain-voting boroughs at the other end of the scale, more than 66% of people are now double-vaccinated.

Matt Warman, the Conservative MP for Boston and Skegness, told Euronews that the high death toll in his district was likely due to a range of factors, including its relatively large elderly population - who are more susceptible to the virus, generally.

As for the correlation between areas that voted Brexit and fatalities, he suggested it could be for a different reason.

Areas that voted Brexit in 2016 tend to have large numbers of people who were born in Eastern Europe, and we know that there are problems with vaccination rates within the Eastern European community in the UK, Warman, who has been MP since 2015, told Euronews.

This problem, he said, is exacerbated by misinformation being circulated online on social media, often originating in these individuals home countries, where vaccination rates are far lower than in the UK and anti-vax sentiment far more mainstream.

There has not been enough focus by social media companies on misinformation in other languages within the UK, he said.

Every weekday, Uncovering Europe brings you a European story that goes beyond the headlines. Download the Euronews app to get a daily alert for this and other breaking news notifications. It's available on Apple and Android devices.

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Brexit-voting areas of UK have highest COVID-19 death rate, study finds - Euronews

GBP/USD struggles to keep the bounce off the weekly bottom, easing to 1.3220 during Wednesdays Asian session.

While upbeat UK data and comments from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) favored the cable pairs bulls, fresh fears concerning the coronavirus and Brexit recall the bears on a key day.

With a reduction in the UKs Claimant Count Change and Unemployment Rate, not to forget firmer Average Earnings, odds of the Bank of Englands (BOE) hawkish performance on Thursday cant be ruled out. The IMF urged, per Reuters, the Bank of England on Tuesday to avoid an "inaction bias" when it comes to raising interest rates as it forecast British inflation would hit a 30-year high of around 5.5% next year.

It should be noted, however, that IMF Chief Kristalina Georgieva cited Brexit fears as a challenge to the UKs economy. Brexit dealt significant damage to trade with the European Union and there would be further difficulties when Britain implements customs checks on EU imports on Jan. 1, Georgieva said, per Reuters. Alternatively, the UK Express quotes Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney saying, The EU is anxious to move ahead unilaterally if the UK does not agree on medicine supply to Northern Ireland this month.

Elsewhere, the UKs National Health Service (NHS) told, per the UK Telegraph, to the Pharmacies that they cannot have any more extra rapid Covid tests - even though entire cities have run out. The UK policymakers are also warned over a flood of virus-led hospitalization as the cases jump. Reuters said, Infections from the Omicron variant of the coronavirus have risen in the United Kingdom with the number of new cases reaching 59,610 on Tuesday, the highest figure since early January.

The UK isnt the only one suffering from the virus variant as Omicron spreads across the board and challenges the policy hawks as the Fed braces for a crucial day, with faster tapering and rate hike clues eyed.

For now, the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November, expected 4.7% YoY versus 4.2% prior, will be the key for the GBP/USD traders.

Read:Fed Interest Rate Decision Preview: Can the FOMC satisfy and mollify the markets?

GBP/USD remains on the way to refresh yearly low of 1.3160 even if the weekly support line tests short-term sellers around 1.3200. Meanwhile, the 10-DMA level near 1.3245 guards immediate upside.

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GBP/USD retreats towards 1.3200 on coronavirus, Brexit fears, UK inflation, Fed in focus - FXStreet