Category Archives: Brexit

Analysis

09:27

by Alan Wager and Anand Menon

Down and out in North Shropshire. Credit: Getty

Four out of five Tory MPs in Parliament have majorities smaller than the almost 23,000 votes wiped out in the Shropshire by-election last night. The constituency had been held by the Conservatives, in one form or another, for over century. The loss is a dramatic escalation of the crisis Boris Johnson is facing.

The post-Brexit rules of the political game supposedly decreed that North Shropshire is a Conservative shoo-in. The constituency is calculated to have voted 60% leave the EU in June 2016. North Shropshire is about as blue as it can be.

It is only two years since the Prime Minister achieved a personal political triumph, leading his party to an 80 seat majority. The authors of a definitive guide to that election put his victory down to a simple equation: BBC Brexit, Boris and Corbyn. Of these, the most significant was Brexit.

The Prime Minister was backed by 75% of Leave voters in December 2019. He has privately spoken of the idea that Keep Brexit Done could form part of his bid for re-election. The logic was clear. Brexit plays well with the Tory base but divides Labour. Starmer could be attacked as someone whose only ambition was to rejoin the EU. Maintaining a certain degree of tension with the EU made good political sense.

Yet that tension appears to have subsided. Noises from Downing Street about ripping up the deal signed two years ago can no longer be heard. The Governments approach to talks over the Northern Ireland protocol appears to have softened dramatically, and this morning slipping under the radar there looks to be agreement with the EU on a continued role for the ECJ in managing the protocol. Brexit, it would seem, is no longer Mr Johnsons safe place.

It is little remarked upon, but Starmer has managed to free himself of the label of Remainer in chief. Just one in four Remain voters believe that the UK re-joining the EU in the next ten years is at all likely. For a leader whose biggest problem when first running for leader was his association with Remain, it is a remarkable fact that only one in five Leave voters think that Keir Starmers Labour Party want the UK to rejoin.

Labour are even beginning to weaponise Brexit. Starmers new line, debuted last month, is Make Brexit work. As time passes and the pandemic (hopefully) recedes, the UKs continued stuttering economic performance will be harder to blame on lockdown.

Our research has found that, so far, voters believe Covid-19 to have been a bigger economic hit. Yet over a third of Leave voters now feel that the cost of living has been negatively affected by leaving the EU. If these problems get more acute over a winter expected to be dominated by a cost of living crisis even before Omicron hit, a public fight over the Northern Ireland Protocol may not have the intended rallying effect for the coalition the Prime Minister built in December 2019.

Reframing Brexit as a question of economic management rather than a cultural totem works well for Labour but not so well for the Prime Minister. Perhaps the biggest problem as John Curtice has put it is evidence that voters view Brexit and Covid as two sides of the same coin. As Brexit becomes an issue of competence like any other, it loses its value as a get out of jail free card for the Prime Minister. In turn, it becomes harder for the Government to palm off questions about the economic cost of Brexit with formulaic odes to sovereignty and happy fish.

You might be tempted to think, even if its not a cure-all for his leadership, that re-upping Brexit could reinforce Boris Johnson among the electors he has perhaps most to worry about in the immediate-term this morning: his backbenches. Yet, even there, a panglossian Brexit appeal is problematic. Our survey of Members of Parliament found that while they no doubt still believe in the overall project when asked about sectors such as haulage and the creative industries, Conservative MPs are aware that the impact has not been universally positive for their constituents.

All this is growing evidence that, just as Labours acquiescence on Brexit aged badly from 2017 to 2019, Boris Johnsons Brexit boosterism is more difficult to pull off now than it was in December 2019. Appeals to simple Brexit divisions tempting as they might become for a beleaguered Prime Minister are increasingly likely to feel as if they come from a different era of British politics.

Go here to read the rest:

Brexit can no longer save Boris - The Post - UnHerd

Van drivers will be required to get new international operating licences if they want to travel back and forth to the EU from May next year, the government has announced.

The additional red tape will come into force next year alongside a series of further checks at Dover and other ports that were delayed three times in 2021 because of lack of preparation for Brexit in Great Britain.

According to updates on the gov.uk website, anyone driving a van, a light commercial vehicle or any car towing a trailer will be required to have a goods vehicle operator licence to enter the EU, Iceland, Norway, Liechtenstein or Switzerland from May.

The licence will cost van drivers up to 1,100, a significant burden for solo operators, industry leaders said.

Drivers will have to fork out 257 in an application fee and a further 401 for the licence. Another 401 continuation fee will be payable every five years to retain the licence, according to gov.uk.

The rules will hit small traders such as couriers or importers of wine or vintage and antique goods, the Road Haulage Association said.

Rod McKenzie, the managing director of policy and public affairs at the RHA, said: This is just more bureaucracy. Its been flagged for some time but could be a problem for the one-man bands or small operators who are simply too busy running their business day to day to have noticed this.

Drivers will also need to assign a staff member or themselves as transport manager a named individual to ensure the driver follows industry regulations and tax payments in the EU after Brexit.

The person will either have to demonstrate they have managed fleets of vehicles for at least 10 years or will have to complete a course to qualify for a transport manager qualification.

A slew of other rules in the UK will hit hauliers of all sizes from 1 January when EU exporters need to register for a goods vehicle movement service (GVMS) as full customs controls will apply to all goods moving in both directions between the EU and Great Britain.

Hauliers who do not have the paperwork will not be allowed to board a ferry or shuttle.

The new checks on EU imports have been delayed three times but will be phased in over 2022. David Frost, the Brexit minister, announced they would continue to be delayed for importers from Ireland.

From 1 January exporters of agrifoods from the EU will also have to notify authorities in advance in Great Britain of their exports with physical checks on fresh food, products of animal origin, and plants including cut flowers from the Netherlands from July.

A new site at Bastion Point in Dover has just been agreed for these sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) checks.

A second border control post is being added to the existing HMRC facility in Sevington in Ashford to deal with SPS checks on plants and wood products, high-risk foods not of animal origin, horses and livestock.

A third site in Kent is being identified, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs said.

McKenzie said: Brexit was challenging initially for hauliers with loads delayed and lots of frustration but as ever with logistics, people have found their way. The big challenge for 2022 is how ready our EU counterparts will be for entry into GB.

Read more:

Van drivers in UK will need new operating licences to enter EU from May - The Guardian

Research by Ludovic Phalippou of the University of Oxford and Betty H.T. Wu of the University of Glasgow appears to show a direct correlation between Brexit-voting districts of the UK and those that have the highest rate of fatalities from COVID-19. According to the research, the boroughs of Boston, Great Yarmouth, South Holland, and Hartlepool, for example, have the fourth highest fatalities from the virus in the UK and the biggest share of the vote for Brexit, with all four districts voting more than 75 percent for Leave in 2016.

By contrast, the 20 boroughs with the lowest death rates all voted heavily for Remain.

Speaking to Express.co.uk about the findings, Conservative MP David Jones described the study as "a very odd exercise to do in the first place", questioning, "why would they do this?"

The MP for Clwyd West, who is also Deputy Chairman of the European Research Group, said: "I think that further study is required before we can draw any conclusions from it.

"It's a very odd exercise to do in the first place.

"Someone must have sat down and thought, 'I'll see whether people who voted Brexit are more likely to catch Covid'.

"Why would they do this? It would never have occurred to most people."

The authors of the study claimed that those who were swayed by the arguments for Brexit were also more likely to reject Covid safety measures, such as vaccination or mask-wearing.

Speaking to Euronews, one author, Mr Phalippou said: "There is a group of people in the population who just rejects any official advice, any mainstream advice, any expert advice."

READ MORE:Fury as Anti-Brexit group say Leave areas have more Covid deaths

"It may well be that further studies are required - if people really think its a good idea to do such a study."

Matt Warman, Conservative MP for Boston and Skegness, told Euronews that the high death toll in his district was likely due to a range of factors, including its relatively large elderly population.

The Sun's Political Editor Harry Cole also hit out at the research, calling it "bottom feeder analysis".

Responding to the study on Twitter, the journalist wrote: "Bottom feeder analysis.

"They are driven so mad by Brexit they cant see how grim and stupid this looks/is.

"Once credible people associated with BFB (Best for Britain) should cut ties from this clown school."

Meanwhile, other Twitter users agreed, with one, Dylan, writing: "My God you've dropped the ball on this one folks. Lordy..."

Another, Seoirse Duffy wrote: "We have known that the virus has been disproportionately killing the elderly and the poor for a while but thanks for putting a nice Brexit-y filter on it, didn't know I needed it."

A third, Ganesh, wrote: "Definitely a correlation between people who make posts like this and being an absolute bore.

"FYI and this really has no relevance at all five years after the vote - I voted Remain."

Continued here:

'Why would they do that?' Outrage as study links Covid deaths and Brexit voters - Daily Express

President of EU commission is 'showing claws' says expert

Announcing the EU Commissions new measures, Vice-President for Values and Transparency Vera Jourov said: We have seen too many examples of the risks stemming from the digital realm like the Brexit referendum."

Former Brexit Minister David Jones MP, commenting on the proposals to Express.co.uk, said: It is quite clear that the outcome of the referendum - the biggest and most successful democratic exercise in British history - has come as a severe shock to Brussels, which obviously regards it as a threat to the integrity of the EU.

Ms Jourovs statement was part of the Commissions announcement of a series of new legal proposals which will affect political campaigning across the bloc - both online and in the print media.

The new rules may also severely affect the ability of UK campaigning organisations and politicians to support independence movements in EU member countries, starting from Spring 2023.

In commenting on the Brexit referendum and other events such as the Capitol Hill demonstrations following the US elections in which Donald Trump was defeated, EU Commissioner Jourov described the package as a reaction to these events and also to loopholes identified in our systems".

The new measures relate mostly to political advertising but encompass promotional activities by politicians and campaign groups where any funding is involved.

The most innovative piece of this package is referred to by the EU as the political adverts regulation.

Ms Jourova said: It has never been done before. Our aim is to put order in the world of political advertising, especially online.

The main measures set out in the proposed regulation were outlined in an EU Commission communication.

This said: Political ads will cover ads by, for, or on behalf of a political actor as well as so-called issue-based ads which are liable to influence the outcome of an election or referendum, a legislative or regulatory process or voting behaviour.

In its explanatory notes, the Commission defines political advertising' as meaning the preparation, placement, promotion, publication or dissemination by any means, of a message".

Everyone involved in political campaigning - whether a PR company or an online platform - will have to abide by the new rules. This will also cover actors outside of the production chain, including politicians, political parties and campaign organisations.

The Commission, led by Ursula von der Leyen, goes on to say: Since advertisements by, for, or on behalf of a political actor cannot be detached from their activity in their role as political actor, they will be presumed to be liable to influence the political debate.

The new regulations contain elements that are unlikely to be contentious when they come before the EU Parliament, as they relate to the transparency of political donations.

However, some parts of the proposed new laws and directives may be contested by the Eurosceptic parties.

READ MORE: EU news LIVE: Furious rebels to hit out TODAY as they ignore rules

The Commissions new laws will not prohibit the public from seeing messages in the future, but they will make it more difficult for any campaigning groups such as the Eurosceptic movements across the bloc to promote their messages to the public.

Mr Jones added to Express.co.uk: While it is certainly legitimate to seek to ensure transparency in online campaigning, it is perturbing to see the Commission admit that these onerous new regulations are prompted by the experience of the Brexit referendum in the UK.

It is quite clear that the outcome of the referendum - the biggest and most successful democratic exercise in British history - has come as a severe shock to Brussels, which obviously regards it as a threat to the integrity of the EU.

The new rules are calculated to act as a deterrent to campaigners, particularly smaller groups, which will not have the resources to deal with them.

This overbearing approach serves only to highlight the nervousness of the EU in the face of popular democracy.

DON'T MISS:EU's top court chief issues ominous warning on survival of blocMacron now says borders and sovereignty are his top prioritiesBrexit groups appeal to help remove 700,000 pages of EU red tape

The Commission stipulates onerous conditions, with a long list of information to be recorded for every political message.

Finally the Commission says: Publishers of political adverts will need to ensure that this additional information about the targeting of political advertising they publish is included in the transparency notices they make available with the political advertisement.

Fines will be applied by member countries where political messaging is deemed to have contravened the new regulations, says the EU Commission.

The proposals will now be discussed by the European Parliament and the Council before they become law.

The Commission says their aim is for the new rules to enter into force and be fully implemented by member states by spring 2023, i.e. one year before the [next EU Parliament] elections".

Read the rest here:

Never again! EU makes move to stop another Brexit-style referendum in bloc - Express

A

majority of Britons believe the Government has done a bad job on a string of key policies including Brexit, levelling-up, immigration, crime and improving the NHS, a new poll has revealed.

The Ipsos MORI survey for The Standard found only one area where most of the public believe ministers have performed well - getting people jabbed as quickly as possible.

But the polls other findings are a damning verdict on Boris Johnsons Government since the December 2019 General Election:

Gideon Skinner, head of Political Research at Ipsos MORI, said: Its not just stories of Christmas parties that should give the Conservatives concern, but also perceptions of delivery on substantive policy areas, as our latest public scorecard on Government performance shows.

The poll also showed that 52 per cent expect the economy to get worse over the next 12 months, double the 25 per cent who think it will improve, giving an Economic Optimism Index score of -27, almost unchanged on the -26 of last month.

* Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative sample of 1,005 British adults 18+ by telephone 3rd 10th December 2021. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. Full details at http://www.ipsos-mori.com

Original post:

Brexit, crime, immigration - majority think Government has done a bad job, poll shows - Evening Standard

Boris Johnson's determination to get Brexit done led to lives being lost to coronavirus, the SNP has claimed.

The Nationalists slammed the Prime Minister after a report found many civil servants were focusing on the UK's departure from the EU in 2019 at the expense of other contingency plans.

The National Audit Office (NAO) found preparations for Brexit took up "a significant amount of time and resources across the civil service" department experts shifted away from their usual roles.

At one department - the Civil Contingencies Secretariat - 56 of its 94 full-time staff were working on no deal Brexit planning in March 2019 - limiting the resources it could devote to planning for other emergencies.

The NAO said preparations for leaving the EU enhanced some departments crisis capabilities, but also took up significant resources - meaning the UK Government had to pause or postpone some planning work for a potential flu pandemic.

UK ministers have faced huge criticism for the speed of their initial response to the coronavirus pandemic, which saw the NHS and care homes struggling to acquire enough supplies of personal protection equipment (PPE).

Philippa Whitford, the SNP's health spokeswoman at Westminster, claimed the report showed civil servants had been distracted by Brexit in the year leading up to the first lockdown in March 2020.

The SNP MP for Central Ayrshire said: "These findings are utterly damning but they are not surprising.

"the threat of a pandemic has been at the top of the UK risk register since 2009 - but everyone knows the Westminster Government took its eye off the ball to prepare for a possible no deal Brexit.

"When diligent and capable civil servants should have been ensuring the PPE stockpile was maintained and planning the response to any major health emergency, their Tory bosses diverted them to focus instead on their Brexit obsession.

"Sadly, it is difficult to come to any other conclusion than that this obsession ultimately led to lives being lost to Covid, including those healthcare staff who could not access PPE."

Whitford continued: "Had the Tories not been so consumed by their damaging Brexit folly, lessons could have been learned and preparations would have been in place to better combat the pandemic that has left so many families grieving.

"Political decisions have consequences. On top of a decade of austerity, which had weakened healthcare provision, Brexit was a Tory choice for which many people have paid dearly.

It is as unforgivable as it was avoidable. The Tories refused our calls, and offers from the EU, to suspend the Brexit process and steamed ahead with the end of the transition with cavalier disregard for the consequences."

A spokeswoman for the UK Government said: We have always said there are lessons to be learnt from the pandemic and have committed to a full public inquiry in spring.

We prepare for a range of scenarios and while there were extensive arrangements in place, this is an unprecedented pandemic that has challenged health systems around the world.

Thanks to our collective national effort and our preparations for flu, we have saved lives, vaccinated tens of millions of people and prevented the NHS from being overwhelmed.

To sign up to the Daily Record Politics newsletter, click here.

Originally posted here:

Boris Johnson's Brexit obsession 'cost lives to covid' claims SNP in wake of damning report - Daily Record

Uncertainties driven by the UKs vote to leave the European Union (EU) saw numerous intermediaries establish offices in the EU and according to Elizabeth Grima, Senior Executive Manager of New Dawn Risk (Europe), 2022 will see an expansion of European specialty MGAs to the detriment of the London market.

As part of New Dawn Risks 2022 prediction series, Grima recently discussed the long-term impact of the UKs Brexit vote on the European insurance market.

She explains that while initial predictions claimed that little would change as a result of the UKs withdrawal, the fact is that this has not entirely been the case.

As our readers will be aware, a fair number of London-based carriers have had to reconsider their European business models post-Brexit, and this includes whether to continue writing business in some countries at all.

As such, Grima notes that jurisdiction and country of domicile has become increasingly recognised as an issue for service providers globally.

As a result, a number of intermediaries, whether managing general agents (MGAs) or intermediary facilities, have set up office in the EU to preserve or to grow their business in Europe. The choice of legal jurisdiction for these offices has varied in reason but generally is linked to a calculation based on proximity, relationship, regulatory constraints, fiscal and speed-to-market incentives, said Grima.

Adding that while this is a natural development, theres an undertow which is ultimately negative for Londons reputation as an insurance hub.

Much has been made of the growth of the MGA model over the last couple of years, and it is generally agreed that this is an area of the market where creativity and new ideas flourish with innovations on pricing and customer service being particularly successful, said Grima. It is much to the detriment of the London Market if we begin to see MGAs being established in Europe at the expense of London.

The London insurance market is the oldest in the world and Grima states that it will always be a global hub for insurance business.

However, recent regulatory changes have created a slow but inevitable move away from the traditional market with greater opportunities for innovation occurring in the MGA and delegated authority space.

Watch out for this trend bringing increased critical mass to European markets, to the disappointment of London in 2022 and beyond, she said.

Original post:

Brexit to drive expansion of European specialty MGAs: New Dawn Risk's Grima - Reinsurance News

BREXIT MEANS BREXIT, but it hasnt meant getting a swift exit.

In fact, the whole process of the UK leaving the European Union has been tortuously slow, with years of debates in the House of Commons, intense talks on technicalities and numerous 11th-hour deals. Of course, it hasnt even been finished yet and its not clear that the British economy has even benefitted from the exit.

The UK isnt the only country that isnt a fan of being an EU member there are still prominent anti-EU figures across member states. But has that been dampened down by all that Brexit drama, or has Brexit shown Eurosceptics that it can be done even if it is a bit messy?

Thats what well be focusing on in this episode of the Explainer podcast. The latest The Good Information Project cycle on The Journal has been looking at the post-Brexit relationships between Ireland, the UK and the EU, and project manager of TGIP, Brian Whelan, tells us more on this weeks episode.

But well also be joined byEuroNews Europe Correspondent Shona Murray, who talks us through what Euroscepticism is, where it stands right now, and what the future for the EU looks like.

#Open journalism No news is bad news Support The Journal

Your contributions will help us continue to deliver the stories that are important to you

Source: The Explainer/SoundCloud

This episode was put together by presenters Michelle Hennessy and Grinne N Aodha, and producers Aoife Barry and Nicky Ryan.

Go here to see the original:

The Explainer: Is Euroscepticism stronger or weaker after Brexit? - TheJournal.ie

Thursday 16 December 2021 4:52 pm

The government has today confirmed it will cut the Brexit red tape that costs wine importers coming into the UK some 130m a year.

The new legislation will come into effect at the beginning of next year and will ease trading between the UK and the European Union which accounts for half of the countrys wine imports.

The sector had been calling for the move for some time, and has left Wine and Spirit Trade Association boss Miles Beale overjoyed with the result.

This week marks the final hurdle in a two-year battle to remove unnecessary and costly inherited EU red tape on wine imports, he said.

It is an historic moment for the UKs world-leading wine trade and will be cause for celebration for wine producers across the world.

In stripping VI-1 certificates from the trading process, businesses are in a better position to navigate a tough winter, said food and drink minister Victoria Prentis as pandemic guidance leaves hospitality in the cold.

By removing this pointless red tape, our businesses are in a stronger and more competitive position than before, she said.

Ending the requirement for import certificates is an important measure in supporting this vital industry, and a clear benefit of our now having the freedom to determine our own rules.

See the original post:

No more reason to wine: Government cuts Brexit red tape on wine imports - City A.M.

Olaf Scholz, 63, only succeeded Angela Merkel, 67, as Chancellor last week after Germany spent 16-years being governed by the nations first-ever female leader.

However, the ex-general secretary of the SDP has already left his mark on the top German job after deploying some characteristically vague and formulaic responses to journalists during a press conference with Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, 53.

During his joint appearance with Mr Morawiecki on Sunday, Mr Scholz was unable to clarify Berlins position on the controversial pipeline between Russia and Germany, known as Nord Stream 2.

Instead Mr Scholz is reported to have claimed Germany will no longer be using gas as an energy resource in 25-years time.

However, Warsaw has come out in opposition to the move and called on its partner in the European Union to stifle the pipeline plan.

But this wasnt Mr Scholzs first official visit as Chancellor.

He had already made the trip to the EUs main capital Brussels and to nearby Paris.

The 63-year-old was greeted in Paris by French President Emmanuel Macron, 43, on Saturday with a fist bump.

During his meeting with Mr Macron, who is himself up for re-election next year, the pair were asked about reports Russia could invade Ukraine and whether they would be ready to review Maastrichts criteria on inflation.

But while the French President spent three minutes answering the questions, Mr Scholz said: One thing is very clear right now: we have to cooperate, we have to act, and put effort into this in Europe.

But that requires that our borders hold firm, and we are working to de-escalate conflict.

And we want to make sure that the future is open to everyone.

Read more from the original source:

Anxious EU keen to settle key sticking point of hated Brexit deal, Coveney admits - Daily Express