Category Archives: Brexit

Former minister David Gauke speaking to the media in London, 24 September 2019 | Alamy

4 min read18 January

David Gauke, Conservative (May 2005 - Sept 2019) and Independent (Sept - Dec 2019) MP for South West Hertfordshire

I can definitely be described as a Centrist Dad figure these days, former Conservative cabinet minister David Gauke says. In many respects, I still consider myself a conservative, even if Im not a member, or particularly an enthusiast for the modern Conservative Party.

Since losing the Conservative whip in September 2019, then running as an independent candidate in his South West Hertfordshire constituency that December (he came second with 26 per cent of the vote), Gauke has been publicly critical of Johnsonian-style Toryism and the government, believing the party is drifting towards populism and nationalism.

He has found himself politically homeless. Although he believes the Liberal Democrats should be aiming for voters like him, he is not yet fully comfortable with Sir Ed Daveys party either, saying it should be stronger on pro-business messaging and relationships with the European Union. Where the Liberal Democrats are happiest is when they are a none of the above protest party. But voters like me, and many others who genuinely voted Conservative, want to vote for a party of government. They dont want to vote for a protest party, he says.

Probably a lot of ex-ministers felt they just wanted to be able to do something

Now writing regular columns in the New Statesman and ConservativeHome, working as head of policy at his former law firm Macfarlanes and a day a week advising PR firm Instinctif Partners, Gauke is still involved in the world of politics. However, there are many things he misses about Parliament including the jerk chicken in the Debate canteen. Having been a minister for nine of his 14 years in Westminster, he found himself particularly missing government when Covid hit. People would say, I bet youre glad to be out of it. That was actually the point where I most wanted to be back in the middle of things, because thats the point where you think you can make a difference, where your experience and skills can be of most use, and where things really matter. Probably a lot of ex-ministers felt they just wanted to be able to do something.

Gaukes proudest moments are from his seven years in the Treasury, even if they were terribly prosaic, and low-profile. There were some reforms to the way that the PAYE system operated, bringing in real time information. You cant be more technocratic and unglamorous than that; but for those reforms, which I certainly drove, we wouldnt have been able to introduce the furlough scheme the way we have. I wasnt introducing [them] for that reason, but they were good and valuable reforms that have enabled others to go on and implement a very good policy.

As a minister, Gauke was known for his calm and steady media performances so what does he make of the phrase uncork the Gauke?

I quite liked it. Sometimes people said oh George [Osborne] was so unfair to you, he dropped you into all these difficult situations. It couldnt be further from the truth. If youre a junior minister wanting to make an impression, the opportunity to go out, especially when things are difficult, and acquire a reputation of being able to deal with difficult interviews or a rowdy House of Commons is a real feather in your cap and so I always took it as a compliment. Ive heard a lot worse.

While he isnt necessarily proud of the action that effectively ended his political career being one of 21 Tory MPs who lost the whip for backing the Benn Act during the Brexit battles in September 2019 he went into it with his eyes wide open. I think had 21 of us not taken action in September 2019 we would have ended up with a no deal Brexit at that point. [The country] would have been plunged into a huge crisis. Although the outcome weve got to is far from good, it could have been much worse. Taking that action at that point was the right decision.

PoliticsHome Newsletters

Get the inside track on what MPs and Peers are talking about. Sign up to The House's morning email for the latest insight and reaction from Parliamentarians, policy-makers and organisations.

More:

Where Are They Now? Former Conservative Brexit Rebel MP David Gauke - PoliticsHome

Introduction

It is just over five and a half years since the Brexit referendum delivered a surprise 52/48 verdict in favour of the UK departing the European Union.

It has been a period of intense political upheaval in the UK resulting in the departure of two successive Prime Ministers and two general elections, all against the backdrop of fraught negotiations to agree with the EU a Withdrawal Agreement (WA), setting out the terms of the departure, and a new Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), designed to frame the new relationship.

The WA was concluded in December 2019. The UK exited the EU on January 31, 2020, but nothing changed until the expiry of a transition phase at the end of that year, by which point the TCA was also agreed.

The dust has still not fully settled on the definitive shape of EU-UK relations as there are several as yet unresolved issues due to certain grace periods (the UK is only this year beginning fully to implement checks on EU imports) and some unfinished business (defining the modalities of the vexed arrangements for Northern Ireland). However, the general direction of travel is clear. The UK has opted for the most severe form of exit, seeking to cut most ties with the EU and aiming to achieve the maximum degree of regulatory independence.

The economic and social dislocation caused by the pandemic has made it difficult sometimes to distinguish between the impact of Brexit only versus that of COVID 19. However, this article seeks to describe, as far as possible, how Brexit has affected the business and regulatory environment across the full range of areas covered by Steptoe and Johnson practices so far, and to identify issues of potential future concern for companies.

Trade, Customs, and the Level Playing Field

Customs and Supply Chain Issues

2021 was a year characterised by supply chain issues. Not just in the EU or the UK, but globally. While trade was down in the first half of 2020 due to the global pandemic, 2021 saw a complete reversal with global ports being highly congested. This issue was felt differently in the EU as compared to the UK, however. Euro-area exports of goods in October 2021 were close to pre-pandemic levels, being only 2,34% down from October 2019.In the UK, on the other hand, exports of goods were 9,6% lower in October 2021 than in October 2018, the most recent stable period in the UK.

A key reason why customs and supply chain issues were more acute in the UK as compared to the EU appears to be Brexit. UK companies have so far experienced more difficulties in trading under the new customs arrangements following Brexit than EU companies.Indeed, the EU has been applying full customs checks to imports from the UK since January 1, 2021, while the UK has repeatedly delayed similar checks on imports from the EU. However, as of January 1, 2022, the UK has introduced full customs checks on goods imported from the EU to Great Britain, with exceptions regarding Ireland and Northern Ireland.UK importers are likely to face significant disruptions, at least in the short term, as they get used to the additional red tape due to the application of full customs checks. This could have an important impact on EU export volumes to the UK, similar to the disruptions caused to UK exports to the EU when the EU started applying full customs checks on imports from the UK.

The Level Playing Field

Ensuring a post-Brexit level playing field was a key issue during the Brexit negotiations. A key fear of Brussels was that having left the strict rules of the EU, the UK would turn into an economy with limited regulations and uncontrolled subsidies while retaining duty free access to the Single Market. The TCA ended up including a number of components related to the level playing field, with key parts being related to subsidies and state-aid. The outcome of this on the UK side has been the UK Subsidy Control Bill 2021,which seeks to strike a balance between the UKs obligations under the TCA, while at the same time allowing the UK with sufficient flexibility to provide subsidies where it deems fit. In its current form, its principles regarding subsidy control largely mirror those of the TCA, although there does seem to be room for interpretation and it remains to be seen whether the EU will consider the implementation thereof to be in line with the TCA.

In parallel, the EU is in the process of adopting a new regime to address distortions caused in the EU market by foreign subsidies.This would give the European Commission the power to investigate foreign subsidies granted to any company active in the EU and impose regressive measures to counteract any distortive effects (see our blog post describing this proposed regime here). While this proposed legislation is not specifically related to Brexit, it could have implications for UK companies active in the EU which have received UK subsidies.

The Northern Ireland Protocol

While Brexit happened on February 1, 2020, and the Brexit transition period ended on January 1, 2021, there are still many unresolved issues under negotiation. Throughout 2021 the EU and the UK have been engaged by intense negotiations regarding the Northern Ireland Protocol, which has in effect resulted in Northern Ireland remaining in the EU Single market for goods. This has, however, resulted in several disruptions in trade between the rest of the UK and Northern Ireland, with several customs checks on goods, and severe disruptions on agri-food products, due to the absence of a veterinary agreement.

These disruptions are despite the fact that all the checks under the Protocol have not yet been fully implemented, while the UK has continued to extend the grace period during which lesser checks apply.

Towards the end of 2021, the situation got very tense, with the UK threatening to unilaterally suspend part of the Protocol over continued trade disruptions caused by the Protocol. Although at the time of writing the situation seems to have somewhat settled down, UK red lines remain, and the UK remains prepared to suspend part of the Protocol should the parties not come to an agreement.

Should the UK suspend (part of) the Protocol, the EU has indicated that it may initiate dispute settlement proceedings and/or take retaliatory measures. There is even the potential that the EU may renounce the TCA in its entirety if the UK suspends the Protocol, although this appears less likely. It is clear, however, that a UK suspension of the Protocol would have significant consequences for EU-UK relations; not only in terms of trade but also other issues dealt with in the agreement.

Regulatory landscape

Competition

Since the end of the transition period, EU competition law ceased to apply to the UK and EU competition law is no longer applied by UK enforcement authorities. Although they must have regard to EU guidance and future EU case law, they are not bound by future EU law and may depart where appropriate.

The UKs competition authority, the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) is no longer party to the EEA's cooperation network, nor does it benefit from the 60+ cooperation agreements between the EU and third countries. The TCA envisaged such an agreement and under discussion are provisions to share information, attend each other's interviews (M&A and infringements), and request the other to conduct raids. However, it has yet to be concluded.

EU block exemptions (which define certain types of agreements that are allowed under the EUs competition rules) have been retained as part of the UK's domestic law. The EU has been conducting public consultations on some Block Exemptions which will expire soon, including those concerning vertical agreements. The CMA is in the process of preparing its own version. The two are likely to diverge, not least because the EU's Single Market imperative is not relevant in the UK context, save as between the UK nations (where the UK now has its own UK Internal Markets Act).

As regards merger control, the UK regime is voluntary and the thresholds are unchanged. It is envisaged that mandatory notification may be introduced in the digital markets. The UK has now also adopted, in line with other major jurisdictions, a foreign direct investment (FDI) screening regime the National Security and Investment Act (NSIA). Under the NSIA, there is currently mandatory notification of transactions required in 17 key sensitive sectors, including notably telecommunication, technology, and defence. The CMA has issued new Market Assessment Guidelines which, for example, broaden the CMA's approach to when it will claim jurisdiction over a transaction. The CMA closely monitors the market and has significantly increased the review of transactions and called in completed transactions for investigation.

Sanctions

During Brexit negotiations, the EU and UK stated their desire to coordinate as much as possible on sanctions policy post-Brexit without agreeing on a formal framework to do so. The past year has seen several examples of continuing cooperation when EU and UK political priorities align, including announcing coordinated measures under their respective Belarus, Global Human Rights and Myanmar sanctions regimes. Yet, the decoupling brought about by Brexit has resulted in a degree of divergence between EU and UK sanctions priorities, designations and implementation.

The UKs establishment of an autonomous Global Anti-Corruption sanctions regime in April 2021 underlines the UKs efforts to develop a more agile autonomous sanctions regime that is capable of swift action. The move brought the UK more into line with the scope of the Magnitsky regimes adopted in the US and Canada, which unlike the EUs Global Human Rights Sanctions Regime also apply to corruption offences. It also emphasized the UKs commitment to expanding the roster of like-minded international partners with which it will collaborate post-Brexit.

The decision to not directly transpose existing EU sanctions regimes into the UKs new legal framework for sanctions already has resulted in divergence in designations and the implementation of sanctions policy, bringing with it the potential to create sanctions compliance difficulties for companies that are subject to both regimes. For example, the legal tests for designation are different in the EU and UK, which has resulted in disparities between EU and UK sanctions lists. It is likely that, over time, these differences will expand further in response to the refinement of designation thresholds and shifting political priorities. The UK also has introduced new tools, such as general licences, to enable companies that meet certain conditions to undertake otherwise prohibited activities under specified sanctions regimes. Such tools are absent from the EUs sanctions architecture. This could potentially complicate the navigation of sanctions exemptions and licensing derogations for companies operating across Europe.

Insurance

In preparation for Brexit, many insurers rationalised their business so that UK business was handled by entities in the UK and EU business was handled by entities in the EU. Numerous books of business were transferred using portfolio transfers (almost half of those from the UK were to Ireland or Luxembourg). In other cases, insurers simply discontinued their UK or EU business.

The TCA, concluded at the last moment, largely excluded financial services.

Following Brexit, the right under EU law for insurers to passport from the UK into the EU, and vice versa, ended. However, the UK permitted EU insurers to carry on business as usual in the UK for a limited period, under a temporary permissions regime (TPR), the intention being to allow such insurers to become UK-authorised if they wished to do so. Fewer insurers than expected opted into the TPR. The EU did not offer any comparable arrangement, and most EU Member States now prohibit UK insurers from conducting new business and have stringent rules concerning the run-off of existing business.

During the Brexit negotiations, the possibility of the EU recognizing the UK as an equivalent regime under the EUs insurance legislation was a key topic. Although the UK has granted equivalence to the EU, the EU has not done so with the UKs regime. The EU and the UK regimes concerning solvency may diverge in the near future due to the ongoing reviews of an applicable framework on both sides of the Channel, which further reduces the likelihood of the EU recognizing the UK as equivalent.

UK and EU re-insurers have adjusted their operations to reflect the restricted market access rights, including by establishing local licensed entities and setting up appropriate outsourcing arrangements for the most efficient allocation of group resources.

Chemicals

Those campaigning for Brexit often cited the benefits of a more flexible, targeted, UK-centric approach to environmental regulation as one of the prizes, and in 2021 the UK government wasted no time in seeking reform. However, of all the environmental issues, the regulation of chemicals stands out as creating some of the biggest Brexit challenges.

The issue stems from the European approach of no data, no market, which requires companies to submit data on hazard properties through a registration process to obtain market access. The UK failed to reach an agreement with the EU on the existing database, so the independent regimes for the UK market require companies to populate new databases, at a cost estimated at over a billion euros.

In response to industry concerns about timescales and costs, in December 2021 the UK announced a review to explore a new model for data packages, with longer timescales for submitting data and a greater focus on use and exposure, allowing more targeted regulatory action. Also, in December 2021, the UK announced its approach to identifying substances of very high concern, setting a different process to the EU list. The moves generated an immediate reaction from NGOs who claim the UK is not upholding the terms of the TCA on ensuring a level playing field, and urging the EU to step in.

The arguments are likely to intensify in 2022, when the EU pushes forward with its legislative agenda to deliver the Chemicals Strategy for Sustainability, with some significant changes predicted. In 2022 we also anticipate the UKs own chemicals strategy, first promised in its 25 Year Environment Plan back in January 2018. With chemicals underpinning so much of the economy, this is an agenda with implications far beyond the chemicals sector itself, and international companies should monitor this closely. You can read more in our briefing.

Data protection

Brexit left a question mark over the flow of personal data between the UK and the EEA. That question was not resolved until June 2021 when the European Commission issued its decision confirming that the UK does ensure an adequate level of protection. While that outcome was highly political, it was difficult for the Commission to come to any other decision given that the UK had implemented the EUs data protection legislation into national law and, to date, applied the case law of the European Court of Justice. However, the adequacy decision is not permanent. It may be revoked by the Commission if the UK no longer provides that requisite protection and will be reviewed in 2024. If that review does not result in an extension, the decision will expire on June 27, 2025.

Notwithstanding the above, the UK has flagged its intention to deviate from the EUs privacy strategy by adopting a supposedly more business-friendly approach. In particular, the UK is likely to adopt its own set of adequacy decisions, develop domestic data transfer mechanisms and has stated its intention to overhaul the regulation of website cookies. In addition, the UK will not be a party to the upcoming changes in the EU to the regulation of cybersecurity, AI, and more.

How quickly and how far the UK deviates from the EUs data protection legislation is yet to be seen. Whatever the possible deviations, the key question will be how far the EU is prepared to tolerate such divergence and still grant adequacy.

Criminal Investigations

The WA and the TCA have significant implications for cross-border cooperation in criminal matters in the UK and EU.

In relation to financial crime enforcement, the key provisions in the WA are contained in Title V on Ongoing Police and Judicial Cooperation in Criminal Matters. In relation to investigations and proceedings commenced before the end of the implementation period, requests or judicial orders received by the appropriate authority in the UK or EU prior to the end of the implementation period remain enforceable. For requests or orders issued after that time (including European Investigation Orders (EIOs)) mutual legal assistance arrangements will need to be relied upon instead. These arrangements can be administratively burdensome and time consuming. There are also exceptions that allow members states to refuse to comply with a request, including where a matter has already been adjudicated on in another state, that state may refuse to comply with a request.

Part 3 of the TA concerns Law Enforcement and Judicial Cooperation in Criminal Matters, and covers a number of areas including exchanges of operational information, cooperation with Europol and Eurojust, surrender, mutual legal assistance, anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing, and freezing and confiscation orders. Most significantly, the UK ceased being a member of Europol and Eurojust, with its influence and involvement being significantly reduced as a result. The availability of the European Arrest Warrant (EAW) in the UK also came to an end, and was replaced by a new regime known as surrender. In essence, surrender is based on the mutual recognition of arrest warrants issued by another state. In contrast to an EAW, states can elect to refuse to comply with a request for surrender on the basis that the underlying offence is political, and may also elect to refuse to surrender their own nationals or attach conditions to the surrender of their own nationals.

The TCA also expressly provides for Joint Investigation Teams (JITs) between UK and EU member state investigating authorities, although it is largely silent on the detail. It is envisaged that changing political moods and relationships have the potential to affect the willingness and ability of authorities to cooperate with each other.

Conclusion

While some of the impacts of the UKs departure from the EU are becoming increasingly clear, much of the detail remains to be defined. The politics of Brexit are likely to remain fraught, both around the Northern Ireland Protocol and other areas such as fisheries, data privacy, chemicals, and financial services. Companies will need to follow very closely both the fine-tuning of existing arrangements as well as the way potential new arrangements will evolve. Steptoe and Johnson can offer detailed and informed commentary and advice on all the areas covered in this article.

Read more:

Brexit one year on - Lexology

Monday 17 January 2022 12:18 pm

Brexit could reduce the UKs exports to the EU by -7.73 per cent by 2025, according to new analysis shared with City A.M. this morning.

This is largely because smaller EU countries are benefitting from Britains departure from the European Union, according to the report by City broker IG Group, which evaluated export data to determine theimpact of Brexit on international trade and to show areas of potential growth.

The top three countries that benefitted from Brexit were Finland, Luxembourg, and Portugal.

Other countries that benefited from the vacuum left by the UK after Brexit included Ireland, Croatia, Greece, Lithuania, and Cyprus. The highest proportional increases occur in locations where trade was smaller to begin with, the firm found.

For example, in Finland, exports of aircraft, spacecraft and parts thereof beat estimates by 11,715.28 per cent, at 102.71m instead of its predicted 0.87m.

Meanwhile, Luxembourgs actual figures for exports show an increase of 2017.99 per cent above estimates, at 16.38m instead of 0.77m.

The firms City analysts gathered export data from the UK, countries from the EU, and some additional selected countries, to identify trends stemming from the impact of various factors that occurred during 2020.

The team evaluated the UKs main exports prior to Brexit, such as precious metals, vehicles, and pharmaceutical products, alongside the top exporters of the same products in the EU and Singapore to understand which countries were able to increase exports.

City-based Chris Beauchamp, IGs chief market analyst at IG Group, said this morning that the UKs vote to leave the EU in 2016 represented a huge leap into the unknown and Covid also created an additional layer of complexity to international trade and cross border investments.

Meanwhile, any British businesses may give up importing as a result of new strict rules that came into force on 1 January, a former senior civil servant in charge of Brexit planning warned recently.

Philip Rycroft, who was permanent secretary at the Department for Exiting the European Union (DExEU) between 2017 and 2019, said the changes that came into play on January 1 will cause teething problems, with some sectors hit harder than others.

With the introduction of new barriers to trade with the bloc, Rycroft said businesses may decide it is simply not worth the hassle

The changes mean that importers must make a full customs declaration on goods entering the UK from the EU or other countries. Traders are no longer able to delay completing full import customs declarations for up to 175 days, a measure that was introduced to cope with the disruption of Brexit.

There are separate provisions in place for trade with the island of Ireland.

Rycroft told BBC Radio 4s PM programme the new rules might be too much for some companies.

The Federation of Small Businesses reckon that only about a quarter of their members are ready for this, which is a bit surprising in a way because theyd obviously had a lot of notice that this is coming, he said.

Lets not forget, theyve had a pretty torrid year, most businesses, with Covid and everything else, so a lot of businesses wont be ready.

There will be teething problems but the big question is, how many businesses ultimately think: Do you know what? This is just too much hassle, and give up importing? Just as some businesses have already given up exporting because its not worth it.

He added: Businesses exporting to the EU from the UK have already faced these rules, obviously, for the best part of a year. So its now going to be those businesses in the UK that import from the EU (that) have got to deal with this, essentially, new Brexit bureaucracy.

Rules on country of origin documents have also become marginally stricter, with declarations needing to be made when goods arrive here.

Rycroft said this will be really complicated for certain products that contain lots of different bits or ingredients.

Asked if the country is likely to see rising prices or empty shelves, he said: I wouldnt overdramatise it. I think at the margins there are new costs, which will ultimately have to be borne by the consumers.

So HMRC reckon that the total cost of these new systems will be something like 13bn a year thats a lot of money by any token spread across a big population like the UK, of course, thats modest increases in costs through the supply chain.

But at the margins also therell be some businesses, as I said previously, (who) think: Do you know what? This isnt worth the hassle. So there will at the margins be a reduction in choice as well.

This is why the Office (for) Budget Responsibility reckons that the net impact of this deal on our wealth as a country will be to reduce it by about 4% in the medium term. Thats because trade between the UK and the EU will be a lot less free than it was when we were in the single market.

The DExEU closed in January 2020, with Brexit negotiations now handled by the Foreign Office.

See more here:

UK exports to EU may drop by another 8 per cent as Finland, Luxembourg, Portugal and Greece benefit from Brexit - City A.M.

In recent days it was confirmed two of the largest fishing vessels in the world (the Afrika' and the Zeeland') were both spotted fishing just 15 miles off the coast of Cornwall.

Both are registered in the Netherlands, and for some obscure reason, have been given licences to fish in UK waters.

They are both well over 100 yards long and use nets which can be the size of six football pitches.

Such large vessels indiscriminately catch huge numbers of fish at one time, whatever their species and size, with no regard for the damage this must do to the fish stocks of this country as well as the general biodiversity of UK waters.

Despite this serious threat to the United Kingdoms fishing industry, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), headed by George Eustice, gave permission for both these vessels to fish here, as well as seven other so-called Supertrawlers registered in the European Union, as part of the rollover of more than 1,500 fishing licences for EU vessels to operate in UK waters.

READ MORE: /comment/expresscomment/1551170/brexit-latest-news-british-fishing-supertrawlers-george-eustice-common-fisheries-policy

View post:

Brexit LIVE: 'Never happen!' Remoaners' 100k City exodus myth SMASHED jobs surge 100%+ - Daily Express

Michael Fabricant is MP for Lichfield.

Last week, I spent considerable time on the media defending Boris Johnson (as I will perhaps do this week too). Why did I do so?

Am I after a promotion?No.Do I want to get into the Prime Ministers good books? No.

Its because I despise bullying and injustice.Whether it was my challenging John Bercow never a wise move to argue with a Speaker who can switch you off mid-sentence or a Minister who was bullying a subordinate in his department, they all have to be called out.

At the beginning of last week, the media were trying to portray Downing Street operations as bacchanalia flourishing in the face of a national lockdown.And little riles the British public more than hypocrisy by those in power setting rules for others which they themselves then ignore.

So I thought it important to explain that the Downing Street garden is not a public place like a park from which we were all banned except for taking exercise.Far from it.I also sought to explain that it is not just a few grand rooms, but 100 plus pokey little offices in three buildings over 300 years old, all knocked together.It was no surprise to me when Covid ripped through numbers 10, 11, and 12, with Johnson himself being rushed to hospital.

At the time of the garden party in May 2020, I have pointed out that many staff had been working 18 hour days, and were exhausted.So meeting in the fresh air, in a secure environment patrolled by armed police so no outsiders could mix in, was not going to increase the risk of spreading Covid.

Was it wise?Probably not.Was it illegal as it was not a public space? Well, Sue Gray will be the judge of that.And one of the Prime Ministers failings we all have them is that he empathises with staff who have been working long, unthanked hours for him and the nation.

However, we now find that there was a culture of meeting for drinks after work, as in so many other organisations.Again, no mixing with outsiders was permitted, so although it might be understandable from an epidemiological view, at a time of lockdown it was wrong.

And Johnson has apologised to the House of Commons and to the British public.When he found that a leaving party took place the night before the funeral of Prince Philip, he apologised to the Queen, even though he did not himself attend: at the time he was over 40 miles away at Chequers.

But the visceral loathing of the Prime Minister goes deeper than just the understandable fury of those who think its one rule for them and one rule for us.

Its one that defies logic and forgiveness. For it was Johnson who delivered Brexit and there are many who suffer from Long Brexit: they just cant get over it and will never forgive.And then there is an even stronger motive: the very fear that just as the magic of the Prime Minister delivered Brexit, so he could deliver another general election victory for the Conservatives, too.

Of course, MPs have been receiving Boris must go messages, and many of them are identical website click emails.In total, the number of messages I have received so far not all from my constituency because of my recent media profile are less than one-fifth of one percent of my electorate.

I do not doubt that people are very angry, and some of my colleagues in Parliament fear for their own seats or have always despised Johnsons approach.

I concede there is something wrong at the heart of Downing Street.But it isnt an arrogant detachment from the public as our opponents wish to portray.It is the very structure by which the organisation is run.The civil servants and advisors are all part of the Cabinet Office, which is based in a different building in Whitehall.

Tony Blair tried to establish a different department: an Office of Prime Minister. The idea makes eminent sense, but he failed. Johnson must not.A separate Office of Prime Minister with its own civil service management based in the building might well have prevented these gaffs from happening.

So where do we go from here? Gray is yet to report and if the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine are to be believed, Britain could soon be the first country in the northern hemisphere to escape the Covid pandemic.

Meanwhile, I will continue to try and explain these circumstances on tv until even the press tire of their relentless Johnson-bashing.

More here:

Michael Fabricant: Johnson's enemies will never forgive him for Brexit. They must not be allowed to oust him. - ConservativeHome

Divisions in the Conservative Party over the "partygate" scandal and Boris Johnson's future as leader are bursting into the open, with some taking up the cudgels for the Prime Minister and others claiming his position is now untenable. A fully fledged Tory Party civil war seems to have erupted, as anger over a series of leaks about alleged lockdown parties in Number 10 are engulfing Mr Johnson's premiership. But former adviser to Margaret Thatcher, Nile Gardiner, has explained what unseating Mr Johnson could mean for Brexit.

Speaking to GB News, Mr Gardiner said: "There's certainly a battle within the Conservative Party for the future of the party.

"There is a battle between more wet elements, and more Thatcherite elements, for the future of the party.

"There are many MPs who fear of course that if Boris Johnson goes then the whole Brexit project will be threatened.

"There are some who fear that an early general election could lead a far-left Government taking power in the UK that actually reverses Brexit.

READ MORE:Brexit LIVE: Liz Truss 'not backing down' to EU - but theres a catch

"It won't be part of their platform for the election of course but once in power, a Labour/SNP coalition could seek to fundamentally reverse the process and defy the will of the British people.

"There are major concerns here on so many levels across the board."

Six Conservative MPs have called for the Prime Minister to quit so far, arguing that a change of senior officials would not reverse the "terminal damage" done to Mr Johnson by the allegations.

Former children's minister Tim Loughton, in a post published on Facebook on Saturday, said: "It is not down to a simple Government policy change or a sacking of ministers or officials to put things right.

For a leadership contest to be triggered, 54 letters of no confidence in the Prime Minister have to be submitted by Tory MPs to Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee, asking for a vote on the Conservative leader's future.

Sir Graham does not publicly state how many letters he has received, but reports suggest about 20 might have been handed in.

While strong words about Mr Johnson have undoubtedly been said by his own faction, many Tories have come out to promptly and passionately defend him.

Veteran Tory MP Peter Bone told LBC he had found constituents in his Wellingborough seat were "clearly in support of the Prime Minister", while former trade secretary Dr Liam Fox - who was sacked by Mr Johnson - said it was the "wrong time" for a change of leader.

Go here to see the original:

'Brexit under threat!' Boris Johnson warned early election to spark reverse of EU ref - Daily Express

Julian Jessop took to Twitter after the Office For National Statistics published its latest economic statistics, relating to November 2021, which reveals GDP rose 0.9 percent, while the economy was 0.7 percent larger than in February 2020. Mr Jessop, who used the data to update his UK GDP forecasts, posted: UK economic growth in 2021 is likely to be just shy of 7.5 percent, one percent higher than assumed in the October Budget and three percent higher than the consensus at the start of last year.

This means that the UK was almost certainly the fastest-growing G7 economy in 2021.

Many were likely to dismiss this as an inevitable minor recovery after the large fall in 2020, Mr Jessop, the former Chief Economist at the Institute for Economic Affairs (IEA), conceded.

However he added: The UK still did much better than expected, even taking account of this favourable base effect.

To illustrate his point, Mr Jessop share a chart comparing what he called two different vintages of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Developments forecasts for last year.

He said: In December 2020 the OECD expected the UK to grow by 4.2 percent in 2021, and to be outpaced by France and Italy.

This turned out to be the biggest forecast error for any G7 economy.

READ MORE:Booming Britain - EIGHT ways UK is better off outside EU

The economy is still much smaller than if it had continued to grow at its pre-Covid trend, and parts are still on life support.

But the UK recovery also ended 2021 with more positive momentum than many of its peers, with GDP rising about one percent in Q4.

So while UK GDP regained its pre-Covid level a little later than some (notably the US and France), it has a better chance of pushing on from here.

The first full-year estimates for 2021, which were also published on Friday, also suggested Germany was now the G7 laggard, Mr Jessop said.

He explained: German GDP fell by 0.5 percent to 1.0% q/q in Q4 and is still below its pre-Covid level, due to supply chain problems, soaring #inflation, and Omicron restriction.

Looking ahead to the rest of 2022, Mr Jessop expects UK GDP to risk by between 5.5 and six percent.

He said: The recovery probably stalled again in December and January, due to caution over #Omicron, and rising energy bills and tax hikes will add to the headwinds in 2022.

But there should be some powerful tailwinds too, including the strong #jobs market, a further easing of #Brexit uncertainty, a rebound in business #investment, and the fading threat from Covid.

The more timely business and consumer surveys are generally reassuring too.

He concluded: The UK economy should again beat expectations this year.

Obviously, there are big risks (in both directions), and the government may need to do more to help low-income households in particular.

But the consensus still looks too pessimistic, just as it was in 2021.

Continued here:

Brexit Britain roars back to outpace the EU as expert hails fastest growing G7 economy - Daily Express

Manufacturers in Northern Ireland have ranked the post-Brexit arrangements for trade in Northern Ireland as the least of the challenges facing their businesses, according to a quarterly industry survey, with 28% saying trade with the EU has increased over the last year.

The top concern was listed as labour shortages caused by the pandemic but also the end of freedom of movement that prevents EU citizens living in border counties in the republic of Ireland crossing into Northern Ireland for work.

The protocol was the least of their worries, said Stephen Kelly, chief executive of Manufacturing Northern Ireland (MNI), which conducted the survey. While we all get caught up in the political narrative, in business the bigger concerns are staff recruitment, productivity and then the pandemic itself.

It shows the narrative favoured by the DUP [Democratic Unionist party] and others that Northern Ireland is going to hell in a handcart because of the protocol is quite clearly not the case, quite the opposite, Kelly added.

He said there was a huge uptick in the number of firms accepting that the protocol is here to stay, but many want it to work better through simplifications of paperwork.

The survey reveals some businesses are now enjoying a Brexit dividend, with 28% saying they have experienced an increase in trade with the EU including the republic of Ireland. Two in five businesses also want the Northern Ireland executive, the equivalent of the governments cabinet, to seize the unique opportunities the country has to trade with both the UK and the single market.

The survey comes as the foreign secretary, Liz Truss, who took over Brexit negotiations after the resignation of Lord Frost before Christmas, holds a second day of talks with the European Commission over the protocol and wider relations with the EU. Truss is hosting the commissions vice-president, Maro efovi, at Chevening House in Kent.

Sources say that the UK will continue to press for further compromises on the checks on goods going from Great Britain to Northern Ireland.

Businesses surveyed by MNI show that while it may not be a priority concern, many are still experiencing a negative impact of the checks and customs controls on goods crossing from Great Britain to Northern Ireland. However, the portion expressing concern in the last quarter is just over 50% down from 77% in the first quarter.

Great Britains readiness for the customs paperwork that applies to goods remains the big issue as one in five report their GB suppliers are unwilling to send to Northern Ireland.

This has remained consistent throughout 2021, said Kelly.

Continued here:

Northern Ireland manufacturers say Brexit protocol least of worries survey - The Guardian

Fury has erupted after the Africa and the Zeeland - two of the largest fishing vessels in the world - were seen just 15 miles off the Cornwall coast on several days throughout last week. Jayne Adye, director of the pro-Brexit campaign group Get Britain Out, said: Both are registered in the Netherlands, and for some obscure reason, have been given licences to fish in UK waters. They are both well over 100 meters long and use nets which can be the size of six football pitches.

She added: Such large vessels indiscriminately catch huge numbers of fish at one time, whatever their species and size, with no regard for the damage this must do to the fish stocks of this country as well as the general biodiversity of UK waters."

The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), had given permission for both vessels to fish here, she claimed.

In addition, seven other supertrawlers registered in the EU were operating with the blessing of the UK Government.

A Defra spokesperson said: As an independent coastal state we can now review which vessels, including supertrawlers, can access and fish our waters.

The new licensing framework within the Fisheries Act allows us to apply conditions to the activities of all fishing vessels in our waters - regardless of their nationality and will need to abide by UK rules around sustainability and access to our Blue Belt of protected waters.

But the latest triggered a furious response from Britons, who have launched a blistering attack against Mr Johnson and his Government.

Express.co.uk reader alanwalton raged: "This is one of many reasons he has to go, because he has been useless."

Fellow reader harrymc mocked the Prime Minister's repeated pledge the UK would take back control following Brexit.

READ MORE:Brexit LIVE: Rishi Sunak told 'fuel can be zero-rated instantly'

Gezzer said: "He keeps making mistake after mistake and doesn't learn from past lessons.

"This is just another one of them."

Express reader Liberated UK simply said: "He just needs to go now."

Elsewhere, Ireland's Foreign Minister Simon Coveney has ramped up the pressure on UK counterpart Liz Truss by saying he wants to see an agreement on the much-debated Northern Ireland Protocol reached by the end of February.

This comes after Ms Truss held her first meeting with European Commission vice-president Maros Sefcovic since taking over Brexit negotiations following the shock resignation of Lord Frost last month.

Mr Coveney acknowledged the meeting marked a "reset" in the relationship between the EU and UK negotiating teams, which is now "in a better place than we've seen for a while".

He said: "From my conversations with both sides, I think that process will be a very serious one.

"I think in people's minds, really, we would like to have, if possible, these issues resolved by the end of February so that the elections in Northern Ireland can move ahead without being dominated by the Protocol issues, right the way to polling day.

"Elections in the North are often polarising enough affairs without having the added complexity and tension around the Protocol and its implementation.

"So I think everybody is conscious of their responsibility in terms of trying to bring some stability and certainty to Northern Ireland in the context of Brexit, and the Northern Ireland Protocol."

Read the original post:

'Boris must go!' Britons rage at Brexit fishing move: 'Not done what he was elected to do' - Daily Express

Britons are charged with a five percent levy on energy bills, a policy introduced by the EU back in the Nineties. The Prime Minister promised that the UK could get rid of that policy after Brexit, back when he was running the referendum campaign. Back in 2016, Mr Johnson wrote in The Sun with Michael Gove: Fuel bills will be lower for everyone. In 1993, VAT on household energy bills was imposed.

This makes gas and electricity much more expensive When we Vote Leave, we will be able to scrap this unfair and damaging tax.

But now, at a time when energy bills are soaring, Mr Johnson has rejected the calls for this measure.

Mike Foster, head of Energy Utilities Alliance, toldExpress.co.uk: It is a clear betrayal of Brexit voters, who were promised that VAT on energy bills would be scrapped.

If the Prime Minister doesnt stay true to his word, they would be right to feel they have been lied to.

Whether he should have made that promise or not, without understanding the implications is irrelevant, he made that promise and he needs to deliver on it.

This is despite a national energy crisis, with the energy price cap expected to rise by 50 percent to 2,000 in April.

This is the maximum tariff an energy company can charge consumers.

And millions of Britons were already hit with a previous price cap rise back in October.

Mr Foster toldExpress.co.ukthat many of those impacted are Red Wall voters.

These are key seats that Mr Johnson was able to snatch from Labour in the 2019 election which consists largely of Brexiteers.

READ MORE:Archaeology: Shipwreck found in British waters 105 years after it sank

Mr Sunak posted Twitter: Ive been on a visit all day today continuing work on our #PlanForJobs as well as meeting MPs to discuss the energy situation."

Meanwhile, calls for Mr Johnson to resign have been coming in thick and fast.

Conservative MP William Wragg is chair of the public administration and constitutional affairs committee and a vice-chair of the backbenchConservative 1922 Committee executive.

He has demanded that Mr Johnson steps down after a series of scandals.

This includes a work party that broke Covid rules which Mr Johnson has admitted he attended.

Mr Wragg said: "Im particularly concerned, as a Conservative MP with interests of the country, my constituency and the Conservative party, that a series of unforced errors on matters of integrity are deeply damaging to the perception of my colleagues and the party.

"And that is deeply unfair to them.

"As colleagues are saying to one another and off the record, I sadly think that the prime ministers position is untenable."

"I dont believe it should be left to the findings of a civil servant to determine the future of the prime minister, and indeed who governs this country."

A union representing 100,000 health workers have also called for Mr Johnson to step down.

Unite national officer for health Colenzo Jarrett-Thorpe said: Health workers have toiled long and sacrificed much during the last two years of the pandemic.

They have taken huge personal risks caring for the public and day-after-day observed all the standing rules on Covid.

The Prime Minister has set these rules and yet he has flagrantly broken them. His position in office is now untenable."

A YouGov poll revealed that 56 percent of people believe Mr Johnson should resign.

See the original post:

Boris on brink: Clear betrayal of Brexit voters who feel 'lied to' could topple PM - Daily Express