Category Archives: Brexit

Indeed, assuming Bank staff are doing the same maths as me, the continued overshoot of inflation could make a half point hike in interest rates more likely when the MPCs latest decision is announced on Thursday. The markets only expect a quarter-point increase, but there is a strong case for a bolder move.

Second, many will fear that inflation will rise even further in October when the Ofgem cap is next due to change. Forecasts that CPI inflation will still be 10pc or more at the end of the year will be increasingly common.

For now, I still expect April to be the peak. But this relies on some optimistic assumptions about geopolitical risks and global energy prices, and on better policy choices by both the Government and the central bank.

Third, UK inflation is about to climb above the European Union average (the first estimate for the euro area in April was 7.5pc). The usual suspects will inevitably blame this on Brexit.

There have already been many strong claims in the last few days, including that Brexit explains 80pc of the UKs inflation problem, and that it has added 6pc to UK food prices.

Lets unpick some of this. Brexit has probably added to cost and price pressures in several ways, including disruption to international trade and supply chains, additional labour shortages, and lower business investment. None the less, there is little evidence the prices are behaving significantly differently in Britain as a result.

UK consumer price inflation has not deviated far from the average in the euro area, and for most of the last year it has actually been lower. Assuming this changed in April, the main factor is not Brexit, but government policy on energy prices.

The Government is allowing more of the increase in wholesale energy costs to feed through to final prices (like in Belgium, where consumer price inflation was 9.3pc in April, or the Netherlands, at 11.2pc).

This contrasts with countries which have intervened more aggressively to keep prices down (notably France, at 5.4pc). Instead, the UK has focused on providing more support via the tax and benefit system.

Some academic studies have attempted to isolate the effects of Brexit on inflation in specific sectors. For example, research published last week by UK in a Changing Europe has suggested that the increase in UK-EU trade barriers led to a 6pc increase in food prices in the UK between the end of 2019 and September 2021.

However, this is hard to square with the actual data, which also show that UK food price inflation has remained relatively low. It is possible that the gap in favour of the UK would have been even bigger without Brexit (this has been a period of sterling strength against the euro, which will have kept import prices down), but a 6pc premium is still a big stretch.

Research in this area has become increasingly dependent on complex methods and models. Sometimes it pays just to step back and look at the underlying data to gauge the plausibility of the results. These appear to fail the sniff test.

Some of the commentary here also relies heavily on predictions, instead of hard facts. In particular Adam Posen, the respected US economist and a former member of the Bank of Englands rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee, has been widely reported as saying that Brexit is 80pc of the reason for the UKs inflation problem.

Clearly this makes no sense at all if applied to the current rates of inflation. But Posen was actually referring to International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts for 2023, when the UK is expected to suffer the highest inflation in the G7.

This is just speculation. Citing IMF projections as evidence here is also circular: the IMF expects UK inflation to remain high because of Brexit and so this is what it is forecasting. But it has been spectacularly wrong on the UK economy for many years.

In short, it is plausible that the departure from the EU has added, a little, to the upward pressures on UK prices. This underlines the importance of efforts to ease trade frictions, reduce uncertainty, and exploit new Brexit opportunities to offset these additional costs. However, any Brexit impact on inflation has been dwarfed by other factors and this is likely to continue.

Julian Jessop is an independent economist. He tweets @julianhjessop

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Brexit is not to blame for the surge in inflation and soaring food prices - The Telegraph

British Ehics (European Health Insurance Cards) issued since the end of the Brexit transition period at the end of 2021 now feature the letters CRA - leading some people to wonder about the significance of this.

Ehics are used for necessary healthcare (that cannot wait for you to return home) during visits to countries in the EU.

CRA stands for Citizens Rights Agreement and relates to the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement (WA), which was signed between the UK and EU on January 24, 2020.

Despite the word European which remains in the cards name, it was agreed in the WA that the UK would be able to continue to issue Ehic cards to people with rights under the WA.

This was in the general spirit of the agreement, that people who had been exercising their free movement rights before Brexit, including Britons in the EU and EU citizens in the UK, should be able to go on largely living their lives as before.

Until the second Brexit treaty, the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) was signed on December 30, 2020, it was unclear if the UK would be able to continue to issue any other Ehics, or an equivalent, to people not covered by the WA, as the Ehic scheme is in principle an EU scheme, allowing mutual cooperation across the union for essential travel healthcare needs.

As the Brexit transition period neared its end in late 2020, the UK invited those concerned to apply for new CRA Ehics, saying that old EU British Ehics may cease to be valid after the transition period.

These have the CRA lettering on them and no EU stars.

CRA Ehics are aimed at groups covered by the WA including:

However, once the TCA treaty was signed and ratified it was clarified that the UK could continue to issue its own version of the Ehic, called the Ghic (Global Health Insurance Card), as similar cooperation on healthcare was agreed in the TCA as had existed when the UK was part of the EU.

The current situation is that:

The aim of the CRA lettering is to clarify that these are UK Ehics with ongoing validity, for people covered by the Withdrawal Agreement rights, as opposed to people who would otherwise be issued with a Ghic under the TCA.

Practically-speaking, there is no difference in the health entitlements conferred by one or the other card, however while both cards can be used in EU states and Switzerland, CRA Ehics can also be used in Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein, whereas Ghics cannot.

It is possible this could change in future due to bilateral negotiations, and it is already possible for UK nationals to access necessary healthcare during visits to Norway using their UK passport, until such a time as a new agreement is in place.

For UK S1 holders living in the EU, the CRA Ehic or Ghic is not intended for healthcare on visits to the UK, however whereas UK state pensioners living in France with a registered UK-issued S1 before 2021 can access free healthcare in the UK, UK state pensioners moving to France after January 1, 2021 may be charged for certain services.

However, in the UK no one is charged for primary care such as GP visits, or treatment as an outpatient in A&E.

Ehics: What is needed for French residents to access NHS on UK trips?

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Post-Brexit travel healthcare: What is a UK 'CRA' Ehic card? - The Connexion

THE gap between Yes and No voters in Scotland is now much narrower thanks toBrexit, a top pollster has said.

Professor John Curtice was asked for his assessment of what would happen if indyref2 was held tomorrow and what the outcome would be.

He pointed to stagnated polling which over the past year has shown No fluctuating between a percentage point or two ahead of Yes.

READ MORE:Sinn Fein set to become biggest party in Northern Ireland for the first time

However, he added that the starting position of both sides is now much closer together than it was in 2014, when No had an advantage.

It came as SNP MP Drew Hendry and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar clashed over indyref2 during a debate on the issue on Politics Live on Wednesday.

Journalist Jo Coburn asked Curtice (below) what he thinks would happen if a second independence referendum was held tomorrow.

He said: The honest truth is that we don't know and thats the problem that faces both Nicola Sturgeon and Boris Johnson.

This morning's poll is Yes 49, No 51, and that's pretty typical.

The polls have now, certainly over the last year or so, have typically been having No very slightly ahead of Yes, but certainly the position in Scotland is now much narrower between those two camps than it was at the time of the 2014 referendum and in truth, this is one of the pieces of paradoxical damage from Brexit.

Curtice pointed out that voters in Scotland strongly backed Remain, by almost two to one.

READ MORE:George Eustice tells struggling families to shop for 'value' deals

He added that while most peoples attention in 2019 was in the House of Commons when the Brexit withdrawal bill was being debated and the resignation of Theresa May, in Scotland this was pushing voters towards the Yes case.

He explained: In Scotland, what was happening was that those people who voted remain were beginning to shift in decisive numbers towards Yes, not enough to produce a route necessarily majority for Yes, but certainly to take Yes to a 50-50 situation.

So therefore, basically, we just don't know what would happen and that therefore holding a referendum or any point in the near future is a very substantial risk both for the Scottish Government and for the UK.

Later in the programme Hendry (below), SNP MP for Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey, was probed on the topic.

He said that unlike Brexit, which had no more than a single-sided A4 paper with a couple of lines written on it, the Scottish Government are set to publish white papers on what an independent Scotland could look like.

We previously told how numerous civil servants have been assigned to the task, and that the First Minister has conducted high-level meetings with officials to discuss the details and what to include in the blueprints.

Coburn asked Hendry how far into preparation the Scottish Government was.

He replied: I'm not in the Scottish Government so I'm not in a position to tell you the stage of that work at the moment.

READ MORE:Scottish council elections: Nicola Sturgeon on indyref2 progress and coalition with Labour

What I can tell you is that work is now going on. It's been completed very thoroughly so that the prospectus as it was in 2014 can be put very clearly to the Scottish people.

In 2014 there was a book that was put forward in terms of the white paper which was very detailed

Coburn interrupted to ask if the case for independence was more complicated now because of Brexit.

Hendry said: In many ways it's less complicated now post Brexit because you're really rejoining the largest market on our doorstep

To which Coburn pointed out that the EU would have to accept an independent Scotlands application.

Hendry replied: I think anyone who's been listening to the mood and news across the EU will understand that it's going to be looked on very warmly by the European Union members. They are about expanding the EU and Scotland is a perfect candidate given its natural resources...

Hendry later clashed with Labour leader Sarwar (above) when the unionist leader was asked to give his view.

Sarwar said that the referendum bid is a game the SNP have been playing for eight years to keep the membership believing that the referendum on independence is around the corner, just to keep hold of power and also not have to do things in government to change peoples minds.

READ MORE:Labour ahead of Tories in new poll as Rishi Sunak's popularity plummets

He continued: Drew wants to tell everybody that Brexit was really really hard, which it was, Brexit was really really tough, which it was, but somehow independence is going to be

Sarwar angrily responded to Hendry who had tried to speak over the Labour leader as both were contributing to the programme via video call.

He added: Drew were not in some kind of childhood debating chamber now, so if you could let me finish my point that would be good.

This idea that somehow independence is really really easy. It's a light switch moment and there's no consequences, no dangers? Brexit was a mess. It's caused years of chaos. Why do you want that chaos right now in Scotland?

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Starting gap between Yes and No 'narrower' thanks to Brexit, says pollster - The National

It seems like every few months brings news of another defeat for the UK government in the courts. And there may well be more to come the latest policy in the sights of lawyers and activists is the plan to process certain asylum seekers whove arrived on Britains shores in Rwanda in east Africa.

The policy was met with justified outrage from progressives and the left. Specialists also predicted that it would run afoul of international law and human rights legislation. But what if this was part of the plan all along? The Times columnist Clare Foges, writing under the headline Rwanda wont work: but it will for Boris Johnson, wondered if the real purpose of the plan was not to actually reduce perilous journeys across the Channel, as the government claimed, but to draw progressives into extended court battles and lawsuits. This would force them to act as an explicit blockade on post-Brexit migration policies, frustrating the peoples will ratified by the 2019 election, and thereby galvanising Tory activists and potential voters.

This poses an uncomfortable question for the left: what if its increasing embrace of the justice system is not just a sign of political weakness, but rather a gift to the right?

Johnson is hardly alone with this tactic. In Brazil, Jair Bolsonaros term as president has been marked by a recognisable pattern of improbable initiatives followed by protracted leftwing resistance in courts. In Belgium, Flemish nationalists such as Theo Francken, the former secretary of state for asylum, have repeatedly attacked judges who have thwarted plans to deport asylum seekers. By forcing opponents to lawyer up instead of building movements and pursuing state power, the right can pose as the defenders of an assailed, disfranchised majority.

This leftwing embracing of the courts makes sense on one level. In the face of rightwing attempts to restrict basic human rights, the justice system has some of the more powerful tools. Immigration policy is not unique in this regard. Over the past decade, green activists have begun pressing claims against a variety of state actors to hold them accountable for climate inaction. Given the issues urgency, it is understandable that ecologists would examine a wide repertoire of tactics.

Context matters, however. Historically, courts were usually the lefts last resort. They offered a pivot when all other routes had been exhausted or political circumstances were simply too hostile. The left relied on a densely organised civil society of unions, parties and councils which could fight opponents on their own terrain. These parties and unions could run in elections, strike or rewrite constitutions. Yet they were always sceptical of the idea that progress could be achieved through the courts alone, or that judges were the most reliable guardians of popular power.

In the past 40 years, as these bastions of worker power have atrophied or died out, the left has become isolated and weak, populated by a small caste of professionals many of them lawyers and academics who only have a tenuous connection to an organised constituency.

In this sense, the embrace of judicial power is itself the expression of political weakness. In the 1990s, the third democratic wave elevated the ideal of independent courts, together with market economics, to a sacred criterion for membership in the global democratic community. In the 2010s, however, disillusionment with courts became endemic across young and old democracies, from the Polish governments decision to handpick judges to the controversies around the German constitutional court and its queasiness about looser EU budgetary rules.

The US provides a helpful example of the drawbacks with trying to secure progressive gains through the courts. The country is somewhat unique in that its abortion rights were achieved through supreme court action rather than directly elected majorities. In several European countries, parties that supported abortion rights had to run in elections across the 1970s and 1980s, thereby facing a direct, democratic test from voters. Once these parties won office, it was easier to get anti-abortion activists to acquiesce to the new regime. There had been a fair contest, and the losers had to accept the result. In the US, by contrast, conservatives repeatedly felt as if abortion rights were imposed by judicial coup. This encouraged political backlash, and allowed anti-abortion activists to claim a fresh democratic mandate.

This does not imply that conservatives are strangers to the opportunistic usage of courts. Many of the authoritarian threats of the 2010s came from ideologically driven judges. The right in Latin American is especially keen on lawfare.

A variety of trends may well decrease the vote share of rightwing parties in the near and distant future. In Britain, persistently low wages and a cost of living crisis do not make for great electoral prospects. Faced with these demographic and economic trends, the Conservative party (and other rightwing outfits) could increasingly prefer its opponents to fight them on the terrain of courts and judges. This is an easy option: it allows rightwing parties to pose as the representatives of a frustrated majority, while camouflaging their own anti-democratic plans to gerrymander voting districts, for instance, or even to introduce tests at the voting booth.

Scepticism about judicial power should not make progressives cynical about what can be achieved through the law. There are important battles that should be fought in courts. Yet if progressives are serious about offering a real political alternative, they will be better off focusing on the (re)building of durable institutions, rather than appealing to the moral conscience of high judges. Courts will not always be their best friend sometimes, they might even be an enemy.

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The Tories biggest trick is making their opponents fight post-Brexit policies in the courts - The Guardian

More Irish passports than British passports are being issued in Northern Ireland for the first time, new figures show.

48,555 people in Northern Ireland applied for a UK passport in 2020 around 350 fewer than the 48,911 opting for an Irish passport the same year.

The figures, obtained by freedom of information request and first reported by Irish Times reports, do not include Irish passports issued by all channels meaning the gap could be even wider.

It comes ahead of Northern Ireland assembly elections on Thursday where Sinn Fein is expected to become the biggest party in Northern Ireland for the first time.

Polls have the left-wing republicans solidly ahead of the DUP, after the latter party's support collapsed and splintered to other groups.

Such a result would see Sinn Fein hold the first minister position in the Northern Ireland executive, if one can be formed the first time a unionist has not held the role.

Yet the increase in Irish passports being issued may have less to do with changing demographics or support for Republicanism and more to do with pragmatism and utility.

Under the Good Friday Agreement, people born in Northern Ireland can identify as either Irish, British or both and carry either or both Irish and UK passports.

Alex Kelly from Eden Architectural Conservation cleans a gargoyle on the north doorway at Rosslyn Chapel in Roslin, Midlothian, as part of conservation maintenance

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People enjoy theme park rides at a funfair at Small Heath Park in Birmingham, as the holy month of Ramadan comes to an end and Muslims celebrate Eid al-Fitr

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Englands Ronnie OSullivan in action against Englands Judd Trump during day sixteen of the Betfred World Snooker Championship at The Crucible, Sheffield

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Visitors record images amongst azalea and rhododendron blossom in Richmond Park, London

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A giant puppet, controlled by four people, called Gnomus, the Caretaker of the Earth, performs at Stonehenge, near Amesbury, Wiltshire

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The Prince of Wales and the Duchess of Cornwall in a TV studio during a visit to the BBC World Service at BBC Broadcasting House, London, to mark it's 90th year and to thank staff and learn how they are continuing their operations across Ukraine, Russia and Afghanistan

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Trafalgar Square in central London is covered in plants and flowers at the launch of an initiative to rewild and protect 2 million hectares of land. The temporary installation, which is made up of over 6000 plants, flowers, and trees, aims to raise awareness of the importance of biodiversity in urban spaces, with visitors to the site invited to pick up and rehome one of the plants

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One of the Liverbirds that sits atop of the Royal Liver Building in Liverpool, is illuminated just before the sun rises over the city

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Prime Minister Boris Johnson paints over the white line of the centre circle during a visit to Bury FC at their Gigg Lane ground in Bury, Greater Manchester

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A lone Grenadier Guard during the Dawn Service commemorating Anzac Day at the New Zealand Memorial at Hyde Park Corner, London

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Killy Cavendish during St George's Day celebrations in London's Trafalgar Square

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A demonstrator holds a pink smoke flare billowing over members of Extinction Rebellion staging a protest against the use of and investment in fossil fuel, outside offices of Vanguard Asset Management on Earth Day in the City of London

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The Honourable Artillery Company (HAC), the City of London's Reserve Army Regiment, fire a 62 Gun Royal Salute at the Tower of London to mark the 96th birthday of Queen Elizabeth II

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Stella Morris the wife of Julian Assange talks to the media outside Westminster Magistrates' Court in London, after Wikileaks founder Julian Assange was formally issued with an order for extradition to the US to face espionage charges

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Sunrise behind the Bass Rock off the East Lothian coast near North Berwick

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Riders dressed as knights take part in the International Jousting Tournament, held at the Royal Armouries Museum in Leeds, northern England

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Cyclists take part in MacAvalanche, a mass start mountain bike race through the snow, descending over 900m from the summit of Aonach Mor in the Nevis Range near Fort William

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Zara Tindall riding Classicals Euro Star takes part in the Barefoot Retreats Burnham Market International Horse Trials in Norfolk

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People on the beach in Bournemouth. Good Friday is set to be the hottest day of the year so far, experts have predicted, ahead of "very pleasant" spring conditions over the Easter weekend

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Migrants arrive at Dover port after being picked up in the channel by the border force

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A demonstrator is carried away by police outside the Department for Business in London after protesting against oil and gas production

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Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (left) arrive for a meeting at Young Peoples Futures, a charity investing in the future of Scotlands young people, as part of a campaign visit in Glasgow

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Studio supervisor Emma Meehan adds the final touches to a waxwork of US drag queen RuPaul at the unveiling at Madame Tussauds of the latest waxwork in Blackpool

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People take part in a protest outside Downing Street in London, over transgender people not being included in plans to ban conversion therapy

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Eventual winner Noble Yeats ridden by jockey Sam Waley-Cohen take the water-jump during the Grand National Steeple Chase on the final day of the Grand National at Aintree Racecourse in Liverpoo

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Police officers work to remove activists from Extinction Rebellion who were hanging from suspension cords beside a giant banner that reads End fossil fuels now, as they stage a protest on Tower Bridge, east London, which has been closed to traffic

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Lorries queued in Operation Brock on the M20 near Ashford in Kent as freight delays continue at the Port of Dover, in Kent, where P&O ferry services remain suspended after the company sacked 800 workers without notice

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Performer Martti Peltonen stands beneath a chocolate easter egg as it is shattered by a crossbow bolt during a photocall for Circus Vegas in Old Deer Park, Richmond, at the start of their first British tour in over four years

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New street art which has appeared in Leith, Edinburgh, in response to Russias invasion of Ukraine. The mural features a Nightingale, the official national bird of Ukraine, against the countrys flag

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Ai-Da, an ultra-realistic robot named after Ada Lovelace, the first computer programmer, paints an image during a photocall in London

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Cambridge womens team celebrate after winning the 76th Womens Boat Race on the River Thames in London

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People protest against the rising cost of living outside Downing Street in London

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Freight and passenger queues waiting to check in at the Port of Dover, Kent, as some ferry services remain suspended at the Port of Dover following P&O Ferries sacking of 800 seafarers without notice

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A soldier of the Household Cavalry Mounted Regiment falls off a horse during a practice to participate in the state ceremonial surrounding this year's Platinum Jubilee celebrations at Hyde Park in London

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Sheep in snow on Shetland

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Queen Elizabeth II and the Duke of York arrive at a Service of Thanksgiving for the life of the Duke of Edinburgh, at Westminster Abbey in London

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Performers including dancers from Ukraine rehearse the finale as Blackpool Tower Circus prepares to reopen following 1 Million renovation

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Re-enactors in the grounds of Bolton Castle near to Leyburn in North Yorkshire, watch as re-enactors bring alive the story of the Battle of Towton, which took place on March 29th, 1461 at a small village near to York called Towton

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Early morning swimmers play with a ball in the sea at Cullercoats Bay on the north east coast of England

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A view of lorries queued on the A20 near Dover in Kent as freight delays continue at the Port of Dover where P&O ferry services remain suspended after the company sacked 800 workers without notice last week

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A group of people thought to be migrants are are guided up the beach after being brought in to Dungeness, Kent, onboard the RNLI Lifeboat following a small boat incident in the Channel

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John Shipton, father of WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, walks with his sons partner Stella Moris as they leave from Belmarsh Prison in London where Moris was set to marry Julian Assange

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A pedestrian looks at cherry blossom trees in Battersea Park, in London

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People walk by daffodils and flowering cherry blossom in War Memorial Park in Coventry

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The Druid Order Spring Equinox ceremony held at Tower Hill Terrace in London. The druids hold a ceremony celebrating the rise of the light. Ceridwen, the earth mother, brings token seeds which are symbolically sown around a circle. The concern of The Druid Order is with the evolution of humanity in harmony with the universe and to teach through open meetings, ceremonies, meditation and ritual

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People take part in the Stand up to Racism march in central London to mark UN Anti-Racism Day

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Brexit: More Irish passports than UK passports issued in Northern Ireland for first time - The Independent

Journalist and author Tony Parsons, who voted for the UK to leave the European Union in 2016, spoke to Mark Dolan on GB News about the inevitability of Britain losing Northern Ireland, noting that it is not inevitable but the disputes with the Northern Ireland Protocol could be driving the Emerald Isle towards unification. Mr Parsons stated: I think its not inevitable. Ireland was united throughout most of its history, its a relatively recent development, partition, but I think the fact that theres a customs union down the middle of the Irish Sea now, certainly takes Northern Ireland further away from Great Britain, makes the United Kingdom less united.

He added: I think Brexit has certainly weakened the UK it's indisputable, theyre being treated differently from the rest of us.

According to the latest poll for the Belfast Telegraph conducted by LucidTalk, support for the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) is at 20 percent while support for Sinn Fein stands at a six-point lead at 26 percent.

If this poll is reflected in the results of the election on May 5, the nationalists will be able to nominate Vice President Michelle ONeill as Ulster's First Minister.

Ms ONeill stated that Brexit has led to many questioning Northern Irelands place in the UK, as she said: I think a lot of people are now considering the constitutional position because Brexit has pulled us out of the EU, stolen our EU citizenship from us.

Speaking on the Trevor Phillips on Sunday show, she said: I certainly think we are closer than we have ever been previously [to Irish unification], and now is the time to plan.

DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson aimed to quash the results of the poll by stating: I think the polls are not reflective of what I find on the doors Im not bothered by polls, and I think the political pundits who stake their reputation on the results of polls might get a surprise on May 5.

READ MORE:Ukraine defence forces bring down Alligator helicopter - VIDEO

Mr Parsons concluded by saying: I dont think [reunification is] inevitable, but I do think that Northern Ireland has been cut adrift by Westminster and cut adrift by this country.

The Northern Ireland Protocol hasnt been addressed enough, wasnt thought through enough and we havent really stood by the people of Northern Ireland the way we shouldve done.

Mr Parsons added: Its one of the great sadnesss I think about Brexit that its definitely weakened the United Kingdom.

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'Brexit weakens UK!' GB News guest warns leaving EU has increased chance of united Ireland - Express

Prime Minister Boris Johnson will be hoping the Conservative Party can come out of the local elections this week relatively unscathed, following mounting pressure over Partygate scandals and the Governments handling of the cost of living crisis. A new survey conducted by Electoral Calculus has predicted this week that the Conservatives are on track to lose nearly 550 seats in the local elections in the worst performance since Sir Tony Blair led Labour in the 1990s. Labour will hold 3,500 council seats a gain of more than 800 whilst the Tories will retain just under 980, a fall of 548, according to the survey of 1,749 adults in the 201 councils going to the polls on Thursday.

Tory candidates have pushed hard on the line that the UK's support for Ukraine and tough sanctions on Russia should be enough to see them continue in power, with the hopes this will help limit the damage in the vote on Thursday.

The Prime Minister has repeatedly said he plans to get on with the job in the wake of the Partygate scandal, and has implied that the instability of a new Government would be detrimental to the UK at such a precarious time for Europe, with war raging on the continent for the first time since World War 2.

However, Mr Johnson and his Conservative Party colleagues were accused of turning a blind eye to Russian interference when it came to the Brexit referendum in 2016.

The claims came in a report from Parliaments intelligence and security committee titled the 'Russia Report'.

It said the Government had not seen or sought evidence of successful interference in UK democratic processes at the time, and it made clear that no serious effort was made to do so.

Stewart Hosie, a Scottish National Party (SNP) MP who sat on the cross-party committee, said: The report reveals that no one in Government knew if Russia interfered in or sought to influence the referendum because they did not want to know.

The UK Government have actively avoided looking for evidence that Russia interfered. We were told that they hadnt seen any evidence, but that is meaningless if they hadnt looked for it.

The committee, which scrutinises the work of Britains spy agencies, said: We have not been provided with any post-referendum assessment of Russian attempts at interference."

Contrasting with the how the US looked into Russian interference in its own democratic votes, the report added: This situation is in stark contrast to the US handling of allegations of Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election, where an intelligence community assessment was produced within two months of the vote, with an unclassified summary being made public.

The Committee members stressed that they cannot conclusively say whether Russia had or had not interfered in the referendum on the UK's EU membership.

READ MORE:'Cancer-ridden' Putin facing COUP as inner circle prepares to axe him

The report continued: Even if the conclusion of any such assessment were that there was minimal interference, this would nonetheless represent a helpful reassurance to the public that the UKs democratic processes had remained relatively safe."

An official UK government response said at the time: We have seen no evidence of successful interference in the EU referendum.

Given this long-standing approach, a retrospective assessment of the EU referendum is not necessary."

As reported by the Guardian at the time, the committee observed that the UK has become a favourable destination for Russian oligarchs and their money.

The extent of Russian money in the UK became apparent last month when the BBC reported that a dozen sanctioned Russians are linked to an estimated 800million worth of property in Britain.

Multi-million-pound country manors in the south of England and luxury flats in London's most expensive areas are among the homes which have been snapped up by figures linked to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

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Transparency, an anti-corruption group, explained to the broadcaster why Russian money in the UK has been so hard to track.

They said: "Because of the system of secrecy here in the UK and in relation to the Overseas Dependencies it's really easy for people to hide their assets and their funds in the UK and not even the police necessarily have sight of where those assets are."

In March, after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the UK Government announced it would impose sanctions on 370 more Russian individuals, including more than 50 oligarchs and their families with a combined net worth of 100billion.

The foreign secretary, Liz Truss, said: We are going further and faster than ever in hitting those closest to Putin from major oligarchs, to his prime minister, and the propagandists who peddle his lies and disinformation.

"We are holding them to account for their complicity in Russias crimes in Ukraine.

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PM accused of IGNORING possible Russian interference in Brexit 'didn't want to know' - Express

Britains central bank policymakers are duty bound when they meet this week to push the UK into recession to cap rising inflation, a former Bank of England (BoE) official has said.

Adam Posen, who runs Washington-based thinktank the Peterson Institute, said that while the Bank of England would not want workers to lose their jobs, it should hike interest rates now to squeeze out inflationary pressures made worse by Brexit trade and immigration restrictions.

The BoEs monetary policy committee (MPC) meets on Thursday and is expected to increase interest rates by 0.25%, taking the central banks base rate to 1% its highest level since early 2009. Inflation in March peaked at 7% its highest level for 30 years.

Posen, who was a member of the MPC from 2009 to 2012, said the central bank needed to take more drastic action after Brexit reduced the UKs labour supply and limited the flexibility of the workforce. Without a U-turn by the government on trade restrictions and immigration policy, the BoE must shrink the economy.

The central bank has no choice but to cause a recession when a broad range of prices are rising at such a strong pace, he said.

It is duty bound to bring inflation down after more than a year when it has been more than 2 percentage points above its 2% target level during a period of full employment.

He said wages were increasing due to shortages of workers and this was likely to add to inflationary pressures over several years unless further interest rate hikes were imposed. He added that if wages failed to keep pace with inflation over the rest of the year, it showed that the wage bargaining power of workers was weak and there was even more reason to put the brakes on rising prices.

There is a greater risk of inflation persisting without further action in the UK compared with other major economies. The US is going through a period of high inflation that monetary policy will arrest. Euro area countries dont really have much inflation other than the spike in energy and food prices caused by the Ukraine war.

The UK, on the other hand, has Brexit, which is going to restrict the supply of labour over the longer term, and trade restrictions that will keep prices higher than they would otherwise be, he said.

Opinion is divided among academics and City analysts over the next steps by the central bank, with some, including Posens predecessor on the MPC, the labour market economist Danny Blanchflower, arguing that rates need to remain low to protect an economy already heading for recession.

Blanchflower, a professor at the Ivy League university Dartmouth College, said several recent indicators showed the UK was already heading into recession and it would be irresponsible for the BoE to give it an extra push.

But those calling for a succession of interest rate increases this year argue the faster pace of wage increases and strong levels of savings among middle and higher income groups will mean demand outstrips supply, generating even higher inflation. They say firms lack the skilled workers and raw materials needed to meet demand, and are likely to respond by increasing prices further.

Shortages of workers pushed vacancy rates to a fresh record in the latest labour market figures covering the three months to February. The worst affected industries IT, manufacturing, construction and hospitality were those that relied most on foreign-born workers, mostly from the EU, Posen said.

He added the UK was far more open to trade and immigration, and attractive for foreign investment before the 2016 Brexit vote.

Ken Rogoff, a Harvard professor and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, said: A recession in Europe is almost inevitable if the war in Ukraine escalates, and the Chinese economy may already be in recession.

Writing on the Project Syndicate website, he added: And with US consumer prices currently increasing at their fastest rate in 40 years, prospects for a soft landing for prices without a big hit to growth look increasingly remote.

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Last week the Brexit opportunities minister, Jacob Rees-Mogg, said Britain would postpone physical checks on fresh food imported from the EU for a fourth time, citing the likelihood they would cost UK firms 1bn in red tape.

A report last week by researchers at the LSE Centre for Economic Performance said that the introduction of new post-Brexit trading rules last year caused a major shock to UK-EU trade.

The research found UK imports from the EU fell by 25% relative to those from elsewhere in 2021.

Its authors suggested new rules had also caused many smaller businesses to terminate relationships with suppliers based in the EU and stop exporting to the 27-member trading bloc.

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Bank of England duty bound to trigger recession to curb inflation - The Guardian

Reflecting on the depressing economic prospects facing this country and many parts of the world, I am reminded of a line in PG Wodehouses Much Obliged, Jeeves.

The narrator that Boris Johnson-like figure Bertie Wooster sinks back in his chair, face buried in hands. It is always my policy to look on the bright side, he says, but in order to do this you have to have a bright side to look on

Well, in my view, the result of last weekends French presidential election offers a peep of a bright side. The concerns about the rise of the extreme right have been well aired, and there has been plenty of commentary about the fractured nature of the French polity and the mountain of problems confronting a re-elected Emmanuel Macron, who, it is to be hoped, has learned the lessons of his past mistakes.

But to read a lot of the commentary, a visitor from outer space could be forgiven for concluding that Macron had actually lost the election, instead of winning by a greater margin than had been predicted. As Francisco, one of the sentinels, says in the opening scene of Hamlet: For this relief much thanks.

Although Madame Le Pen had softened her anti-European stance for electoral reasons, there was much at stake. After Brexit, there had been a great deal of speculation about Frexit. And although the idea of France, a founding and pivotal member, leaving the EU had been formally dropped, it was obvious that Le Pens programme would have come pretty close to leaving the EU in all but name.

As more and more citizens of this country are realising, leaving the EU is not such a great idea. In common with other economies, this country is experiencing the inevitable and damaging losses to national and therefore individual income from a sharp deterioration in what economists call the terms of trade. This is the ratio of export to import prices, which is reflecting the sharp increase in the cost of imported energy, grain and other essentials as a result of the invasion of Ukraine.

On top of this we have Brexit; the thinktank UK in a Changing Europe calculates that the trade barriers we have imposed upon ourselves through the folly of leaving the EU have directly raised food prices in this country by 6%. Meanwhile, thanks to the arduous task of coping with all the red tape resulting from Brexit, the London School of Economics Centre for Economic Performance finds that trading relationships between UK and EU companies have declined by a third since the introduction of the EU-UK trade deal in January 2021. This largely reflects the blows to small- and medium-sized firms, which are supposed to be the lifeblood of the entrepreneurial economy to which this benighted government is supposed to aspire.

Moreover, having seen the difference between the promise and reality of Brexit, the public seems to be having a serious rethink. The campaign group European Movement UK has recently conducted a poll which suggests, in the words of its chair, Lord Adonis, that 98% do not want to leave the EU in its entirety.

The phrase in its entirety obviously leaves all sorts of scope for argument. There has been much discussion among those who were Remainers about what sort of relationship can be developed with our former partners. But do we really have to go back to the 1950s, when alternative relationships were experimented with as substitutes until it became obvious that the only sensible thing was to apply to join properly?

I was surprised to find my colleague, the estimable Rafael Behr, dismissing those who wish to rejoin the EU as only a fanatical minority. I can tell him that in my experience there is a growing number of these fanatics around, and they hardly constitute a minority. And I was especially struck by the remark of the novelist Julian Barnes, when in a recent interview he described himself firmly as a Rejoiner, not a Remainer.

Back to President Macron. He thinks Brexit is crazy and would surely be in favour of acknowledging the UKs historic mistake and inviting us back. The Ukraine crisis assuredly underlines the importance of his vision of a stronger and more united Europe.

It would help if the Tory party came to its senses, ejected Johnson and did not replace him with another Brexiter or at least chose a former Brexiter who had seen the error of his or her ways. In Guys and Dolls, the ensemble sings: But the passengers they knew right from wrong/For the people all said to Nicely-Nicely Johnson Sit down, sit down, youre rocking the boat.

In the case of the Johnson we have suffered for far too long, it is surely time to throw him overboard.

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France turned its back on the far right. Brexit Britain can too - The Guardian

Ukraines former president Petro Poroshenko has asked Boris Johnson not to compare the UKs Brexit vote to his countrys fight against Russia, saying zero citizens died because of the decision to leave the European Union.

Johnsons comparison, when he suggested British people backed Brexit with 52% of the vote because, like the Ukrainians, they choose freedom every time, was greeted with disbelief.

Downing Street has denied the prime minister was seeking to make a direct comparison between the devastation and loss of life in Ukraine and the UK vote to leave the EU.

Asked by ITV News about the comparison, Poroshenko, speaking in military uniform from the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, responded: How many citizens of United Kingdom died because of Brexit? Zero.

Can you imagine how many Ukrainians died [when] they met Putin aggression? Only today we have 150 children killed by Russian soldiers and by Russian artillery. Only during the last week 2,000 children from Mariupol were captured and delivered back to Russia.

Can I ask you how many houses were destroyed because of Brexit? We have whole cities that were completely erased with this situation please no comparison.

Delivering a speech to the Conservative spring conference at the weekend, Johnson said: I know that its the the instinct of the people of this country, like the people of Ukraine, to choose freedom every time.

I can give you a couple of famous recent examples. When the British people voted for Brexit in such large numbers, I dont believe it was remotely because they were remotely hostile to foreigners; it was because they wanted to be free.

The remark was heavily criticised, including by some in the Tory ranks, while Labour has called on Johnson to apologise to both Ukrainians and Britons.

Poroshenko, who was president of Ukraine from 2014 to 2019, called for British offers of support to be delivered faster and sooner.

He told ITV News: Your hypersonic anti-aircraft system, which Prime Minister Johnson just a few days ago promised us we will receive that will be the only possible way to stop Russian missile technology.

Please, you promised it one week ago, they need to be here now. Stop any bureaucratic war, stop any political blah blah blah.

He warned against trusting the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, or any of his promises and said Ukrainians did not need permission from him for their country to exist.

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Please dont compare Ukraine to Brexit, Petro Poroshenko ...