Category Archives: Brexit

French vineyards wont have to worry about cheaper Aussie merlots squeezing them off the shelves at Carrefour. Italian mozzarella makers wont have to fret about southern hemisphere rivals. After years of talks, a bid to agree a free-trade deal between the EU and Australia has collapsed.

I came to Osaka with the intention to finalise a free-trade agreement, said the Australian trade minister Don Farrell. Unfortunately we have not been able to make progress.

There was just too wide a gulf between the two sides on agricultural exports and the EU was unwilling to lower the steep tariffs it puts on Australian food. There is little chance of talks reopening again. Australia and Europe will still trade with each other, but there will be cumbersome tariffs and quotas in the way.

Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Get 6 issues free

Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter

Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter

The contrast with the UK could hardly be more clear. After leaving the EU, we negotiated a free-trade deal with Australia fairly quickly, and it came into force in May this year. A few farmers and hardcore Remainers complained that we gave away too much. But the UK stopped trying to protect its farming industry in the 1840s. Cheaper Australian food and wine will be phased in over several years, which will help many families cope with the cost-of-living crisis. It was a win-win for both sides.

Why the EU cant do trade deals The bigger point is that the EU is no longer able to do trade deals. An agreement with the Mercosur group made up of Brazil, Argentina and a host of other South American countries has been in the works for 20 years, but still hasnt been signed off. A deal with the US, Europes largest trade partner, was put on hold indefinitely back in 2019. Even a deal with Morocco, eight miles from the EUs mainland border, was frozen by the European Court last year. It managed to get a deal with tiny New Zealand over the line. But that is about it. Nothing else is on the horizon.

It is not hard to work out why. First, under French influence, and with the British out of the way, the EU is getting more and more protectionist. We can see that in the constant demands for huge industrial subsidies, for secure supply chains, and for making sure that domestic production is prioritised over any other consideration. An EU-Australia trade deal was meant to allow farmers greater access to European markets, in exchange for French and German firms having easier access to Australian minerals. Any deal involves compromises, but the EU is no longer willing to make any. Incapable of any sustained growth, the EU is shrinking all the time as a percentage of global GDP. It is down to 15%, half the level of 30 years ago, and getting smaller.

Small economies can do deals, as the UK has shown. But they have to be willing to open, and the EU refuses to do that. Its regulatory systems are becoming more and more cumbersome. From the GDPR data rules to new laws on artificial intelligence, gene editing and carbon emissions, a deal with the EU involves taking on board a vast number of new laws over which you have no say. It is no longer worth the bother for other countries.

Why the UK is better off outside the EU During the long process of leaving the EU, we kept being told that it was a far more effective trade negotiator than the UK could ever hope to be on its own. Its sheer size, and the formidable skills of its officials, meant that it could conclude many more deals, and on far better terms, than the UK ever could by itself.

It hasnt turned out that way. We managed to get a pretty good deal with Australia and have joined the CPTPP trade pact that covers most of the emerging Asian nations as well as Canada and Mexico, which the EU is still not a part of. We should soon have a trade deal with India, the fifth largest economy in the world and heading for the top three.

Membership of the EU has become a barrier to trading globally. Remainers, and the leadership of the Labour Party, can carry on insisting that getting closer to Brussels would be better for British trade if they want to. The reality is that the UK is better off out of it.

This article was first published in MoneyWeek's magazine. Enjoy exclusive early access to news, opinion and analysis from our team of financial experts with a MoneyWeek subscription.

Read more:

Britain was right to Brexit | MoneyWeek - MoneyWeek

John Curtice unpacks the recent drop in support for re-joining the EU, highlighting a swing among those who do not think Brexit has made much difference to Britains economy or its control over its own affairs.

UK in a Changing Europes Redfield & Wilton Brexit tracker polls can be foundhere, and the data tables can be downloaded here.

The latest poll from Redfield and Wilton Strategies for UK in a Changing Europe shows something of a drop in support for re-joining the EU. Once those who say dont know or indicate that they would not vote are left aside, 56% now say they would vote to re-join, while 44% state they would back staying out. That represents a three-point swing in favour of staying out as compared with the previous poll in October and indeed as much as a five-point switch since that undertaken in August.

On its own this movement might be thought somewhat inconsequential. Perhaps it could be no more than the product of the random variation to which all polls and surveys are subject. However, it is not an isolated finding. Most other polls have recorded a fall in support for re-joining in recent weeks.

In their last two polls, Omnisis/WeThink, who ask people every week how they would vote in another Brexit ballot, have put support for re-join at 57-58%. In contrast, four of the five readings they took in November put the figure at 60%. Deltapoll, who also poll on the subject every week, now suggest that only 52-53% would vote to re-join. In November their average was 57%. Meanwhile, in their latest monthly reading BMG put staying out narrowly ahead, by 51% to 49%. This represented a swing of three points against re-joining and was the first poll since May 2022 to put staying out ahead.

Are there, then, any clues in the finer details provided by the Redfield & Wilton poll as to why re-joining may have become somewhat less popular?

The swing appears to have occurred irrespective of how people voted in 2016. Table 1 shows the relationship between how people voted (or did not vote) in 2016 both in October and in our latest poll. As compared with two months ago, those who voted Remain in 2016 are now three points more likely to say they would vote to stay out. Equally, those who backed Leave are three points less likely to state they would vote to re-join. Meanwhile, support for staying out has increased by as much as eight points among those who did not vote seven years ago.

Table 1: Current EU preference by 2016 referendum vote, October and December 2023

Note: Data not weighted by reported likelihood of voting.

Yet there is little sign of any marked change in voters evaluations of the consequences of Brexit. Table 2 shows, for the three key issues in the 2016 Brexit debate, the economy, sovereignty, and immigration, how voters regard those consequences now and two months ago. Also included is how voters view Brexits impact on the handling of the pandemic, an issue which we have previously shown has some influence on Leave voters current Brexit preferences.

The figures for the two months are very similar to each other. There is certainly no consistent evidence that the consequences of Brexit have come to be regarded more favourably in recent weeks. Voters are still inclined to believe that, thanks to Brexit, immigration is higher and that the economy has suffered, while they are divided on whether or not it has given Britain more control over its own affairs.

Table 2: Evaluations of the consequences of Brexit, October and December 2023

Note that in the case of immigration, higher has been classified as worse.

If how people would vote in another referendum has changed but evaluations of the consequences of Brexit have not, there must have been a change in the relationship between peoples evaluations of Brexit and how they would vote in another referendum.

We have previously reported that, for 2016 Leave voters, statistical analysis reveals that their current Brexit preference is most strongly related to their perceived impact of Brexit on (i) Britains economy and (ii) how much control Britain has over its own affairs. In fact, the equivalent analysis among those who voted Remain in 2016 reveals that these two evaluations are the ones most strongly related to their current Brexit preference too. Meanwhile, the economy also appears to be the central issue for those who did not vote in 2016.

Table 3 therefore looks more closely at the relationship between peoples evaluations of the economic consequences of Brexit and how they would vote in another referendum.

Table 3: Current Brexit preference by 2016 EU referendum vote by evaluations of the economic consequences of Brexit, October and December 2023

One striking pattern stands out. Among all three groups of voters, the swing in favour of staying out of the EU since October has been most marked among those who think the economy is in much the same state as it would have been if Brexit had not happened. In the case of 2016 Remain voters there has been a nine-point increase in support for staying out among those of that view, while among Leave supporters and non-voters the equivalent figures are 11 and 15 points respectively.

Table 4 undertakes the equivalent analysis of peoples evaluations of the impact of Brexit on Britains ability to control its own affairs. Here too, among 2016 Leave voters and non-voters at least, there has been a marked increase (of seven and twelve points respectively) among those who think Brexit has not made much difference, though in the case of Leave voters those who think Britain has less control are also especially less likely to say now that they would vote to re-join the EU.

Table 4: Current Brexit preference by 2016 EU referendum vote by evaluations of the impact of Brexit on Britains control of its own affairs, October and December 2023

Two implications follow.

First, it is far from certain that another referendum would produce a majority for re-joining. Despite widespread doubts about the benefits of Brexit, the anti-Brexit lead in the polls is not that large, differs between polling companies, and is far from invulnerable.

Second, much might rest in any referendum on the preferences of those who reckon Brexit has not made much difference. Seemingly many of them could yet decide it would be better for Britain to make the best of the bed it has now made for itself rather than pursuing the uncertain prospect of trying to reclaim its old one.

ByJohn Curtice, Senior Fellow, UK in a Changing Europe, Senior Research Fellow, National Centre for Social Research, and Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde.

This post also appears on the What UK Thinks website.

The December data tables can be downloaded here.

Continue reading here:

Have voters cooled on the prospect of re-joining the EU? - UK in a Changing Europe

Wednesday 08 November 2023 6:00 am

The government is tackling out-of-date UK regulations by amending several post-Brexit retained EU laws ensuring those like working time rules are fit for purpose to further jobs growth.

A reduction of time-consuming reporting requirements and simplified calculations for annual leave and holiday pay under the Working Time Regulations are part of the reforms, as well as streamlining the regulations that come with new-owner business transfers.

Business Minister, Kevin Hollinrake said: These reforms ensure our employment regulations are fit for purpose while maintaining our strong record on workers rights, which are some of the highest in the world.

Seizing these benefits of Brexit, including a saving of 1 billion for businesses, will support the private sector and workers alike and are vital to stimulating economic growth, innovation and job creation.

The proposals arent meant to disrupt UK workers rights, rather than instead remove operational bureaucracy to benefit from post-Brexit freedoms.

FSB National Chair Martin McTague said: We welcome these sensible changes, striking a balance for workers while offering clarity for employers. Its good to see the Government cutting through excessive burdens without losing the benefits of regulations.

Were eager to see a system thats clear-cut, cost-effective and easy for small businesses to roll out, so these announcements are a crucial step forward.

In a statement last month, business secretary Kemi Badenoch said the government would kick off an in-depth review of how regulators work in the UK.

These reforms further the governments bid to strip back red tape and find post-Brexit regulatory advantages.

See the original post:

UK ditches company working time rules in further post-Brexit red tape cuts - City A.M.

John Curtice explores whether sovereignty, the economy and immigration are still key to Leave voters attitudes towards whether the UK should be in the EU. UK in a Changing Europes Redfield & Wilton Brexit tracker polls can be found here and the data tables can be downloaded here.

Brexit emerges as a little less unpopular in the latest poll by Redfield & Wilton for UK in a Changing Europe. Once those who say dont know are set aside, 59% say they would vote to re-join the EU, while 41% indicate that they would vote to stay out. That represents a swing of 3% from re-join to stay out since our previous poll in August. Indeed, it is the first time this year that the percentage who say they would vote to re-join has been below 60%. This trend is consistent with the findings of other polls, which in recent weeks have typically been recording slightly lower levels of support for re-joining the EU.

This swing away from re-joining has been accompanied by a range of slight improvements since August in voters perceptions of the consequences of Brexit. For example, 21% now think that the economy is stronger than it would have been otherwise, compared with 19% in our previous poll. Similarly, 34% now feel that Brexit has given Britain more control over its own affairs, up from 32% in August. The proportion who think EU immigration has fallen as a result of Brexit has edged up from 18% to 20%, though, at the same time, the proportion who believe that illegal immigration has increased now stands at 48%, its highest level since we first started asking the question in February.

But which, if any, of these evaluations matter for Leave voters current preferences for being inside or outside the EU? Are their minds still focused on the three issues sovereignty, the economy, and immigration that research suggests were central to the choice voters made in 2016? In particular, are these the issues that help us understand why some Leave voters now have a different attitude towards EU membership than the one they expressed seven years ago?

Table 1 shows how those who voted Leave in 2016 now evaluate the consequences of Brexit for the three key issues in the 2016 referendum. In each case respondents were asked whether, with the UK outside the EU, the position now is better/higher/more than it would have been otherwise, worse/lower/less, or similar to what would otherwise have happened.

Table 1 Evaluations of the impact of Brexit on sovereignty, the economy and immigration, Leave Voters, October 2023

Note that in the case of immigration higher has been classified as worse.

Leave voters have very different views across the three issues. They are inclined to believe Brexit has enabled Britain to have more control over its own affairs, a sentiment that might be thought central to sovereignty, although they are less certain that Britain has more influence outside its borders. On the economy, optimists and pessimists largely balance each other, albeit there is some uncertainty about the impact of Brexit on companies ability to sell goods abroad. However, whatever hopes they might once have had that immigration would fall appear to have disappeared. Around half think that immigration from both the EU and from outside has increased.

This would seem to suggest that the main reason why some Leave voters have changed their mind about Brexit is the perception (and, indeed, the reality) that immigration has increased. However, this is to assume that Leave voters views of what has happened to immigration are related to the probability of them changing their mind about Brexit. That proves not to be the case.

Table 2 Current Brexit preference by perception of impact of Brexit on sovereignty, the economy and immigration, Leave Voters 2016

Those saying they do not know how they would vote or that they would not vote now shown but included in the denominator.

In Table 2 we show how those who voted for Brexit in 2016 say they would vote in a referendum on re-joining versus staying out of the EU broken down by their perception of the impact of Brexit across the three main issues of the referendum campaign. The perceived impact of Brexit on the level of control is clearly related to whether Leave voters would now vote to stay out of the EU or to re-join. No less than 87% of those who think Britain now has more control would vote to stay out, compared with just 38% of those who feel we have less control.

Much the same picture is true of perceptions of the economy. Among those Leave voters who think the economy is stronger, 84% would vote to stay out, compared with just 49% of those who think the economy is now weaker. However, how Leave voters would vote in a referendum is largely unrelated to their perception of whether immigration from the EU is higher or lower. Among those who think that immigration is lower 76% would vote to stay out, little different from the 68% level among those who think that immigration is higher. Analysis of the impact of Leave voters evaluations of the impact of Brexit on non-EU immigration or, indeed, of illegal immigration produces much the same result.

We might wonder how important our three issues are compared with the range of other ways in which Brexit might be thought to have made a difference, on which our poll also collected a great deal of evidence. In fact, a statistical analysis in which we ask the computer to pick out the evaluations that are significantly related to how Leave voters would vote now reveals that perceptions of control followed by the economy are, indeed, the two most important influences. Immigration does not feature at all.

Just one other perception plays any kind of role at all the perceived impact of Brexit on Britains response to the coronavirus pandemic. On this Leave voters are inclined to feel Brexit has been beneficial 44% believe that Britains response was better as a result of Brexit, while only 18% feel that it was worse. Meanwhile, as many as 85% of those Leave voters who think that the response has been better would vote to stay out, compared with just 44% of those who feel it was worse. The government certainly argued, albeit the claim was disputed, that Brexit enabled it to implement a vaccine programme earlier than the EU.

Leave voters are then inclined to the view that Brexit has enabled Britain to take back control and that perception has particularly helped ensure that as many as 70% of Leave voters would still vote to stay outside the EU. However, rather more Leave voters believe the economy has suffered as a result of Brexit, and only around one in two of those who express that view would now vote to be outside the EU. It is that pattern that helps us understand why as many as 22% of 2016 Leave voters would now opt to re-join the EU.

Meanwhile, although Leave voters might regret the failure of Brexit to lower immigration, it seems it is a fact of life to which they are now largely resigned.

ByJohn Curtice, Senior Fellow, UK in a Changing Europe, Senior Research Fellow, National Centre for Social Research, and Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde.

This blog is also published on the What UK Thinkswebsite.

You can download the October 2023 Brexit tracker data tables in full here.

Read more:

Sovereignty, economy, immigration: still the three pillars of the Brexit ... - UK in a Changing Europe

Ahead of a major conference on UK-EU relations in the Sunak era, Simon Usherwood takes stock of the relationship and how it is now being managed.

Brexit is not what it used to be. Cast your mind back to 2018 and 2019 and it seemed that everyday brought a new crisis in either the negotiations between the EU and UK or (more often) in Westminster itself.

However, with the conclusion of the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) and the Trade & Cooperation Agreement (TCA) in 2020 a substantial amount of heat went out of the debate, even if the question marks over the Johnson governments commitment to its treaty obligations did provide periodic clashes, domestically and with the EU.

The signing of the Windsor Framework in early 2023 seemed to underline this shift, with the fifth post-referendum Prime Minister Rishi Sunak looking to remove those question marks, draw a line under the previous seven years and develop more of a working relationship.

But what can we say about this new stage in the Brexit process? How different is it from what came before, if at all? And what might it tell us about where the relationship is heading?

The framework of relations

The most useful starting point is with an appreciation of the differences between the WA and the TCA themselves.

The Withdrawal Agreement focused on management of issues related to the UK leaving the EU. That meant focusing on specific policy areas, largely time-bound (the Protocol on Northern Ireland notwithstanding), with a consequent need to get substantive content agreed within the text. The EU was focused on making sure that this first treaty would pin down as much as possible before the UK left.

By contrast, the TCA deals with the future relationship and so is a much more open-ended text, setting up spaces for work down the line and often noting topics that might be resolved later. The very brief period available for negotiating the treaty in 2020 further reinforced this pattern.

As a result, the TCA is driven much less than the WA by a need to secure effective implementation of commitments, since it deals with matters that are nice to have rather than essentials.

This is reflected by the shifting patterns of UK-EU meetings under both treaties. As can been seen in our tracker of meetings since 2020 (see figures), once the initial flurry of sub-committees in the WA had passed reflecting the need to provide further operationalisation to treaty commitments we have settled into a much slower rhythm of interactions. The TCAs governance framework was particularly slow to get started, especially its advisory bodies, suggesting that substantive negotiations through this framework have been limited.

Figure 1: Meetings of the bodies of the Withdrawal Agreement. For a PDF version click here.

Figure 2: Meetings of the bodies of the Trade & Cooperation Agreement. For a PDF version click here.

Managing relations

Just as the treaty context has changed, so too has the internal management of relations on both sides.

Under Boris Johnson, more or less all aspects of Brexit policy management were centralised in the Cabinet Office under Lord Frost. This included not only direct interactions under the WA and TCA, but also implementation of the new arrangements for all of the UKs border and the maximisation of Brexit opportunities across government.

Currently, only the border implementation work remains in the Cabinet Office, with the Department for Business and Trade picking up what still exists of the Brexit Opportunities Unit. If there is a central coordinating body, then it is now the Foreign Office, which has built up capacity to triage WA/TCA activity across Whitehall, while also being the contact point for direct relations. This relocation to the Foreign Office highlights how EU relations are now seen as been comparable to those with every other part of the world, rather than a special case.

On the EU side too, there has been change.

The groups established after the 2016 referendum in the Council, the Commission and the European Parliament were all characterised by their proximity and access to the highest levels of decision-makers and by very close interactions with each other.

Following the entry into force of the TCA in 2021, these groups were reconstituted into more technical bodies, broadly akin to those that exist for other third-country relations, albeit while remaining the responsibility of more senior officials. While the Commissions Service for the EU-UK Agreements, the Councils Working Party on the UK and the Parliaments UK Contact Group all still provide an institutional focus within the EU, it appears that they have moved on from the highly politicised work of 2016-20.

What this all means

It is that fall in politicisation across the board that is perhaps the key feature of this new period in relations.

To a considerable extent, Brexit has moved from being Chefsache to something managed by multiple individuals at the next level down in seniority. The original framing of Brexit as an upheaval of the political order (on the British side) and as an existential challenge (for the EU) necessarily pushed the matter up to the very highest levels of political decision-making. But with the immediate critical questions tied off in the WA, and with the belated British acceptance of these via Windsor, the need to mobilise and engage so much resource appears much less.

One consequence of this is that there is arguably less gatekeeping on either side of the relationship too. The shift from basic choices over what type of relationship to have into more minor and technical questions of how to make the WA/TCA system work is seen in the new management systems on both sides, each of which give more opportunity for other interested parties to articulate their needs and interests.

This also means that ever more of the substance of Brexit is becoming internalised into other policy domains. As the UK continues to work through its choices post-membership, so UK Departments and Commission Directorates-General are drawn into technical discussions about what to do and how to do it.

All of this change suggests that there will be more scope for technical and technocratic fixes to address emergent issues between the parties, e.g. batteries for electric vehicles. The trade-off is that the TCA framework itself becomes more baked-in and the emphasis will be more on making the most of the opportunities and options therein than on making big shifts in arrangements.

By Professor Simon Usherwood, Senior Fellow, UK in a Changing Europe.

Link:

Just because Brexit isnt on the frontpages, doesnt mean its settled - UK in a Changing Europe

Regulators will initially take a qualitative approach when assessing how much euro derivatives activity European Union firms must push through central counterparties based within the bloc, a representative for the European Parliament told an ISDA conference on Tuesday, in a move that represents a softening in the EU's stance on post-Brexit derivatives clearing.

Proposed requirements to bring more euro derivatives clearing within the EU's shores have faced widespread criticism from the finance industry and provoked disagreement among EU member states. Critics have focused on the design of the EU's active account requirement, or AAR, which will dictate how much activity local firms will have to clear at EU-based CCPs.

Nicolo Bertoncello, economic policy adviser at the European Parliament, told the ISDA conference there was a need to be "cautious" in the rollout of AAR. He said the European Parliament is in agreement that a qualitative approach should be slowly phased in first, where regulators would have discretion over what constitutes an "active account" at an EU-based CCP. A "quantitative" approach will then be adopted further down the line, which would force firms to direct more clearing to EU CCPs.

"We are focusing on a phased-in approach where the introduction of this requirement depends on a number of conditions," said Bertoncello. "Before we get to a quantitative requirement, we're trying to create some breathing space [and are] currently talking about two to three years."

The location of euro derivatives clearing has been a major sticking point across financial services regulation following the UK's exit from the bloc in 2020. While more credit default swap clearing activity has moved to Paris after ICE shut its London-based CDS clearinghouse this year, the EU has so far struggled to engineer a mass migration of euro-denominated interest rate swaps clearing out of LCH in London.

About 51trn of euro-denominated interest rate swaps were cleared at LCH in 2022 compared with the 3.4trn that was cleared at Germany's Eurex, according to analytics firm ClarusFT. LCH is part of LSEG, which also owns IFR. EU derivatives users are able to clear euro-denominated trades through non-EU CCPs until mid-2025.

The EU hopes that AAR will lead to a permanent reduction in the volume of euro derivatives cleared offshore in what it says is a necessary development to enhance financial stability. But critics have dismissed the EU's incoming clearing rules as a post-Brexit land-grab that would increase costs and risks for EU derivatives users.

"The [AAR] is not worth it in the sense that it would result in clients having to split their portfolios and their books", which would have a negative impact on margining efficiencies, said Sachin Dehra, EMEA head of trading legal at BlackRock, who was also speaking at the ISDA conference.

Finance trade bodies have criticised the European Commission, the EU's executive branch, for failing to produce a "robust" cost-benefit analysis of how AAR would impact EU market participants. "The fact that costs are difficult to quantify does not mean these costs will not materialise," according to an ISDA paper in February in response to the AAR.

Bertoncello said that the impact of AAR "has not been proven or even assessed" and that the first qualitative phase of the rule would allow for "better data collection and a better assessment of the effect of a possible quantitative requirement".

"Some groups [in Parliament] were proposing a 40% threshold on the proportion of clearing that should be cleared at a European CCP [within a quantitative approach], while others wanted to start at 50%," said Bertoncello. "At this point, it's not beneficial to talk about numbers as we're lacking clear data and material evidence to base these numbers upon."

While it remains to be seen what quantitative clearing thresholds are enforced under AAR in a secondary phase, ISDA chairman Eric Litvack cautioned against the introduction of robust, high clearing thresholds.

"Ultimately, that would act as a distortion of competition and would work against EU market participants," said Litvack, noting that three-quarters of euro interest rate derivatives trading activity doesn't involve an EU firm. "The more you pressure EU actors to relocate, the more you're effectively forcing them out of the market," he told the conference.

Here is the original post:

Post-Brexit EU clearing rules set for more relaxed approach - International Financing Review

Stock-out is a new phrase for me, but the meaning is obvious it is just supermarket shorthand for being out of stock. And when a supermarket is out of stock, the result is empty or partially empty shelves.

These are being seen once again in UK supermarkets, and images of them are being shared on social media. And it is worth stating once again that there is a simple reason why stock-outs happen more than they used to: Brexit. Leaving the EU has seriously stymied the UKs food importation and distribution sector.

Shane Brennan is head of the Cold Chain Federation, the industry that transports and stores perishable foods across the country. As he told me: One of the reasons why you see stock-outs on supermarket shelves is that supermarkets have tended to operate on a day one for day two system. So, the store manager will make an order for their goods the night before, for the next day.

But that has been changed by Brexit, so now supermarket managers have to make predictions about what they are going to need not for tomorrow but for two or three days ahead. Youre going to make more predictions around what youre going to sell or youre not going to sell. And actually, you end up having to be more risk-averse in what you order, to avoid wasting stuff, says Brennan. So, you end up tolerating more stock-outs. Thats essentially what happens.

Simple geography means that the UK is a messier, more complicated market to supply than many in Europe it is overseas from lots of its suppliers and therefore it is at the end of the supply chain. But that has always been the case, and it all worked perfectly well before Brexit.

Since then, however, foreign suppliers have decided that they dont really need the red tape and added expense associated with supplying the UK. There are easier and closer markets without any hard borders to navigate. As a result, the added delays, bother and cost of Brexit just make ordering what supermarkets need for tomorrow more difficult. They have to plan further ahead and that means they are far more likely to get things wrong. The result? Stock-outs and empty shelves

Of course, the government wont say the B-word when discussing this. It is trying to blame stock-outs on bad weather in Spain, the weird supermarket culture in the UK and anything else that comes to mind. But the fact is the shelves in continental supermarkets are groaning under the weight of fresh fruit and veg and ours arent.

If supply problems were just a matter of a slight shortage of cucumbers in December we might just be able to laugh this off. But remember the UK has yet to introduce its checks on food and food products entering the UK. The EU managed to introduce tests on our produce and food exports on day one of Brexit, a move that stopped 30% of UK food firms exporting at all.

It seems safe to assume that when the UK finally gets round to introducing the long and repeatedly delayed checks next year the consequences will be much the same for goods coming into the UK. Many continental firms will be put off by the costs of veterinary inspections, government fees and checks causing delays.

The problem will be especially bad for smaller firms which might only put one or two pallets on a lorry that carries produce for a dozen other firms; the red tape and delays will strangle the business, as just one mistake on one form for one pallet will mean the whole lorryload is rejected. The result of all of this will be higher inflation, less choice, more delays and more stock-outs.

This should hardly come as a surprise, Professor Michael Gasiorek is head of the UK Trade Observatory at Sussex University, and co-director of the Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy. As he points out, the collapse in trade between the UK and the EU post-Brexit was not mainly on exports by the UK to the continent but the other way round; it was UK imports from the EU that have collapsed.

Gasioreks explanation is simple: For many EU suppliers, the UK is not that important a market. And in the face of the uncertainty, the possible bureaucracy and all this, they have just decided its not worth it. We dont need to worry about trying to export to the UK, its not so important to us, we can export elsewhere. Whereas for many UK firms, thats not the case the EU was a very important destination, therefore, they needed to make sure they could continue to trade.

This is easy to understand if you look at the numbers. The UKs population of 66million is now, for EU exporters, a market behind trade barriers, the European Economic Areas 453million customers are a vital market for UK firms which must be supplied at any cost.

As a result, EU exports to the UK are down by 20-25% and seem unlikely to recover. Remember many of the foreign companies that set up in the UK did so because it had access to the EUs single market; now the UK has left they are far less likely to base themselves in the UK. Which helps explain the decline in inward investment into the UK, and also why supermarkets here are so less well supplied than the ones on the continent.

There is some hope that things might improve in the near future. Labour says that it will seek an agreement with the EU on food standards that will reduce, if not eliminate, the need for checks and red tape. Keir Starmer will not seek full alignment with all EU standards but would try to get an agreement on dairy and meat produce and products, which is, to be fair, the major stumbling block.

But Shane Brennan has his doubts about whether that would work. I would be sceptical about whether or not an incoming Labour government can deliver on that promise quickly and in a straightforward way, he told me. And there are several reasons for that scepticism.

First, Lord Frost tried the same thing during the original Brexit negotiations. He sought an equivalence agreement that is, British standards may differ over time from the EUs, but they are still deemed so good as to be equivalent.

The EU refused to allow this and insisted there could be no deal unless the UK agreed to full regulatory alignment. The UK would have to follow EU rules, no questions asked, to the letter, for ever. They seem very unlikely to change their minds now, after all their own supermarkets shelves are full.

Secondly, the EU is not interested in a deep re-opening of negotiations and if it did deign to do so, it most certainly does not want a pick and mix deal like the one it has with Switzerland, which is what the UK would be asking for. The EU basically sees its relationship with the Swiss as a pain in the neck and wishes it had never gone down the road of allowing the Swiss to negotiate a one-off deal; it is not about to start another such deal with a much larger neighbour.

Third, the UK has already signed trade deals with countries with lower food standards and renegotiating with the EU would endanger those deals

Finally, if Starmer makes it to No.10 he will have an agenda as long as his arm and solving the supermarkets supply chain problems will not be at the top of the list not unless we actually run out of food.

Brexit and the damage it does is increasingly being hard-wired into the British economy. Supermarkets, other stores, the catering industry and cold chain suppliers are just suffering under the added costs, delays and bureaucracy; things that can only get worse once the UK introduces checks on its food imports in 2024.

Meanwhile, a thousand other industries have either given up bothering to trade with the EU, have just decided to swallow or pass on the costs involved to their customers or have come up with a workaround which isnt perfect and isnt as good as the pre-Brexit arrangement but which they can live with. And even a future anti-Brexit government could shrug its shoulders, decide it has bigger fish to fry and just blame Boris Johnson for any problems.

This is Brexit writ large: Higher costs, more bother, less choice, more red tape, lasting damage, a less attractive place to do business. And for the residents, a place where they will just have to learn to live with stock-outs and empty shelves.

Go here to read the rest:

There's trouble in store for post-Brexit Britain - The New European

What is included in my trial?

During your trial you will have complete digital access to FT.com with everything in both of our Standard Digital and Premium Digital packages.

Standard Digital includes access to a wealth of global news, analysis and expert opinion. Premium Digital includes access to our premier business column, Lex, as well as 15 curated newsletters covering key business themes with original, in-depth reporting. For a full comparison of Standard and Premium Digital, click here.

Change the plan you will roll onto at any time during your trial by visiting the Settings & Account section.

If you do nothing, you will be auto-enrolled in our premium digital monthly subscription plan and retain complete access for $69 per month.

For cost savings, you can change your plan at any time online in the Settings & Account section. If youd like to retain your premium access and save 20%, you can opt to pay annually at the end of the trial.

You may also opt to downgrade to Standard Digital, a robust journalistic offering that fulfils many users needs. Compare Standard and Premium Digital here.

Any changes made can be done at any time and will become effective at the end of the trial period, allowing you to retain full access for 4 weeks, even if you downgrade or cancel.

You may change or cancel your subscription or trial at any time online. Simply log into Settings & Account and select "Cancel" on the right-hand side.

You can still enjoy your subscription until the end of your current billing period.

We support credit card, debit card and PayPal payments.

Visit link:

SMEs feel the squeeze from Brexit - Financial Times

Newswise The Windsor Framework has reduced the scale of opposition to Northern Irelands (NI) unique post-Brexit arrangements, but not its intensity.

Polling conducted at regular four-month intervals by LucidTalk for Queens University Belfast since early 2021 shows a clear pattern of division on the Protocol and Windsor Framework.

Although, in line with the results of the 2016 referendum, the majority in NI have consistently been of the view that Brexit is not a good thing for the United Kingdom (UK), voters were initially more evenly split over the Protocol the original UK-EU deal intended to mitigate the effects of Brexit on the region.

From late 2021, a pattern settled in NI public opinion that saw a very slight majority in support of the Protocol, with a substantial minority opposed. That opposition was predominantly coming from the unionist community.

The Windsor Framework was agreed by the UK and European Union (EU) to ease some of the impacts of the Protocol arrangements and make further concessions to NIs unique position. The three Queens University/LucidTalk polls conducted in the eight months since the Framework was announced indicate that opposition has indeed reduced in scale (from c.40% to c.35%).

Hardline opposition has remained, however. Almost a quarter of respondents (23%) in the latest poll (conducted from 20 - 23 October 2023, and using a weighted sample of 1,104 respondents) say they will only vote for candidates in a NI Assembly election who are in favour of scrapping the Protocol altogether. The clear majority of those opposed to the Protocol/Windsor Framework self-identify as strongly unionist.

Respondents are evenly split on whether the Windsor Framework is positive (39%) or negative (39%) for Northern Irelands place in the UK internal market. Almost two thirds (65%) believe it provides a unique set of post-Brexit economic opportunities which could benefit Northern Ireland.

A majority (55%) think the Protocol/Windsor Framework is having negative impacts on political stability in Northern Ireland and more think it is negative for NIs place in the UK (43%) than positive (29%). This is not necessarily due to the Protocol alone. 58% of respondents think Brexit makes a united Ireland more likely, including 30% of Leave voters.

The polling was conducted for a report produced by Professor David Phinnemore, Professor Katy Hayward, and Dr Lisa Claire Whitten. This is the ninth in a series of Testing the Temperature reports on NI voters views on Brexit and the Protocol produced by Queens researchers as part of a three-year project funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), part of UK Research and Innovation (UKRI).

Other key findings include:

Over two thirds of voters (64%) in NI agree that the Assembly and Executive should be restored and fully functioning now that the Windsor Framework has been adopted.

Fewer than one in ten voters (9%) in NI think that Brexit is delivering the benefits envisaged by the Leave campaign. This includes just 15% of Leave voters.

70% of Leave voters in NI believe that the promises of the 2016 Leave campaign have not been forthcoming, even though two thirds of them (67%) still believe that Brexit is a good thing for the UK and would not change how they voted in the 2016 referendum.

6 in 10 respondents (60%) agree that the Windsor Framework is the best available compromise for addressing the concerns of people in NI with the original Protocol; one third (33%) disagree.

A majority (69%) agree that the UK should pursue closer relations with the EU to reduce further the need for formalities, checks and controls on the movement of goods; 17% disagree.

Speaking about the latest findings, Principal Investigator, Professor David Phinnemore said: Views on the Protocol/Windsor Framework have become entrenched. While a majority generally viewthe Protocol/Windsor Framework favourably, the numbers have barely changed since early summer. Most voters are broadly acceptingor supportive of the Protocol/Windsor Framework arrangements; and the clear majority believe the Assembly and Executive should now be back up and running. However, opposition the Protocol/Windsor Framework arrangements persists, particularly among voters identifying as strongly unionist.And that opposition appears for many to be very much a matter of principle with very limited evidence that the position is likely to change.

Co-Investigator, Professor Katy Hayward commented: Three years of polling shows us that views on the Protocol/Windsor Framework and Brexit are, by and large, positions of principle. This affects peoples perceptions as to its impact too. So we see a clear pattern of division reflected in answer to questions about such things as to the impact of the Protocol on the availability of GB-produced meat products in NI supermarket or on the 1998 Agreement. Such divisions are, of course, the most difficult to resolve.

For the full report and findings, please visit:https://www.qub.ac.uk/sites/post-brexit-governance-ni/ProjectPublications/OpinionPolling/and follow on Twitter/X: @PostBrexitGovNI.

ENDS...

Here is the original post:

Three years of polling on the Protocol reveals the depth of the new ... - Newswise

Every publisher seeks a theme, one that mirrors a countrys soul or mood. This seasons publishing zeitgeist in Britain is UKatastrophe where politics and society in the country is measured, often to be found wanting.

The list of books is growing: former BBC presenter Gavin Eslers often angry polemic Britain Is Better than This; former Conservative minister Rory Stewarts Politics on the Edge; and radio host James OBriens How They Broke Britain.

Born to a single Irish mother and adopted, OBrien, with nearly 1 million listeners a week to his British commercial station LBC daily talkshow, has become the voice of those who hated Brexit, Boris Johnson, and much else about where power lies in todays UK.

Speaking this week as former No 10 Downing Street chief of staff Dominic Cummings laid bare the dysfunctionality inside the building during the height of the Covid crisis, OBrien says half-jokingly that the books alternative title was Why Is Everything So Shit?

Dominic Cummings leaves the UK's Covid-19 inquiry in London on Tuesday. Photograph: James Manning/PA Wire

OBrien believes this even more now than I did when I started writing the book, and more widely than I did when I finished it, because ever since he submitted the manuscript, everyone has been using the word.

I guess theres an argument about whos to blame, but I dont think theres much argument about how low weve been brought and how unnecessary it was, says the presenter of the three-hour-long The Whole Show.

OBrien does not lack confidence, as illustrated, perhaps, by the titles for his previous books, How to Be Right, and How Not to Be Wrong, and he is liked and loathed in equal measure.

As always, he is forthright. There are many to blame for the UKs current woes, he argues. It is a tale of loss and betrayal; of unbridled arrogance and unchallenged ignorance; of personal impunity, warped ideology and political incompetence, he writes.

If youre losing 30 million a year on a commercial project, youre probably not in it for the money

And the British media, TV and newspapers in what was once known as Fleet Street, is at the head of the queue, where politicians get away with declaring the demonstrably untrue by supine or sycophantic journalists.

Equally, he blames a slew of privately, often secretly funded think tanks that have over the last few decades largely seized control of the debate inside the Conservative Party, and won platforms to portray themselves as independent voices across British broadcasting.

Now the battle for hearts and minds has moved fully into TV, with the creation of GB News, fronted by a slew of Conservative MPs, including Jacob Rees-Mogg, and former Ukip leader Nigel Farage. They are soon to be joined by Boris Johnson.

James OBrien: 'I dont buy the idea that liberals are out of touch. I think people who think immigration is the source of their problems are the ones that are out of touch'

Curiously, OBrien argues that GB News can be both successful and a failure at one and the same time; unable, he says, with more than a touch of pride, to touch the kind of numbers that weve been doing for years.

However, he goes on, the real focus for those behind GB News, including hedge-fund chairman Paul Marshall, is not the ill-educated, the disgruntled or the impoverished, but rather to win disproportionate influence over the current and future path of the Conservatives.

If youre losing 30 million a year on a commercial project, youre probably not in it for the money, he says. Theyve bought themselves a seat if not at top table then certainly at a table where seats didnt used to be for sale.

I dont buy the idea that liberals are out of touch. I think people who think immigration is the source of their problems are the ones that are out of touch

The politically right-wing station has put on a cloak of respectability, latterly in the last month or two by getting rid of some particularly ridiculous characters but I suspect that theyll just keep banging the same drum, says OBrien.

Theyll be doing nativism. Theyll be going after refugees. Aneurin Bevan [postwar Labour minister who founded the NHS] put it best: the project has always been about persuading voters to use their power to protect wealth. For people with no wealth to protect those with wealth.

Theyre there to distract from the real reasons for inequality and unfairness and to focus peoples attention on well, in the case of GB News, everything from Covid vaccines to foreigners, that theyre the real reason why your life isnt going in the way that you want it to go.

Is all of this not just the typical argument one expects to hear from a left-leaning, London-based liberal, one untouched by issues that inflame debate?

OBrien rejects the point. Most people holding anti-immigrant feelings are not getting their ideas from interactions with immigrants: theyre getting their ideas from people like Nigel Farage telling them that immigrants are awful, he says.

[A proper f***ing lunch with Nigel Farage: I mustnt be sloshed this evening]

Opinion polling taken when British newspapers take their foot off the gas about immigration supports his contention, he argues, since the number of people citing immigration as their number one concern during such times plummets.

So no, I dont buy the idea that liberals are out of touch. I think people who think immigration is the source of their problems are the ones that are out of touch, but I have enormous sympathy for them because of the effort and epic expense put into convincing them of that.

Demographics will change opinions, he says. I mean, if you, or your mums care home is understaffed, you are going to have to ask yourself some fairly tough questions about why you spent the first two decades of this century calling for people to be sent back where they came from.

UK prime minister Rishi Sunak speaks to staff during a visit to Milton Keynes University Hospital. Photograph: Leon Neal/Pool/AFP via Getty

The National Health Service in the UK has 110,000 unfillable vacancies, while hospitality and other businesses are shy of workers because Brexit, driven by insularity and xenophobia, has created an environment into which a lot of people dont want to come, he says,

Despite the promises of Brexiteers, however, immigration into the UK has not fallen. Rather, the source of immigration has changed, with fewer people coming from eastern Europe and more from southeast Asia.

However, the UKs challenges on the issue of immigration could get worse if the same people that managed to inflame baseless racism against eastern Europeans decide to turn their attention to people whove come here from India, or Bangladesh or Pakistan to fill existing vacancies.

If they turn their demagoguery in that direction, things could get quite ugly again. Possibly uglier than weve seen in a while, he says, because this time the immigration debate would have the added ingredient of colour.

You cant turn up in someones life like a hand grenade and pull the pin out the back of your neck

OBrien has faith in the coming generation, one that perhaps has a greater understanding than earlier generations about the sins of the British empire, including an understanding about the countrys role in centuries of the slave trade.

I think that runs deep in our society deeper than I appreciated as a younger man that this belief, that this conflation of patriotism with a sense of superiority, underpins an awful lot of whats going on, he says.

Such attitudes lead some British people to be convinced that the reason why weve got stately homes is because we are a superior breed, its not because we, you know, went around the world robbing and pillaging, and then slaving, he says.

Now a proud Irish passport holder, OBrien enjoys programmes where people trace their family roots, but he has no desire to do the same, even though he knows that his birth mother is still alive, and where she is living.

He easily found his birth mothers name from documents his adopted parents had kept for him in the attic, unlike his friend, comedian Dara Briain, who was adopted in Ireland under much tougher disclosure rules and found the bureaucracy around his search unnecessarily hard.

A lot of women in Ireland in their 60s and 70s have raised families and married men who know nothing about the babies that they gave up. You cant turn up in someones life like a hand grenade and pull the pin out the back of your neck. Youve just not got that right, he says.

His Irish background, which he says he has always romanticised, is important to him, because he often wonders how life for the unadopted me growing up in a small town or village in Ireland would have been like during the 1970s. Not easy, I would suspect.

Ive always had a consciousness of the other me, the unadopted me, he says, saying that it affects his politics and his sense of justice and equality and attitude to privilege: Ive always been incredibly conscious of serendipity and good fortune in my life.

Would he, not because of anyones fault, have grown up less loved, or less privileged in Ireland, he wonders. So the question is not one of nationality, but rather of opportunity lost, or found? Yeah, I think so, its got more to do with the unadopted lad.

How They Broke Britain by James OBrien is published by Ebury

View post:

James O'Brien on post-Brexit Britain: 'This conflation of patriotism ... - The Irish Times