Category Archives: Brexit

TheConservative MP for Great Grimsby Lia Nicitold Express.co.uk thatthe major countries in the European Union such as Germany and France must understand that other nations within the trading bloc want to be more involved. Ms Nici added that many European countries will be looking at how Brexit works for the United Kingdom.

The Conservative MP said: "I think if the EU is going to survive the major countries like Germany and France need to understand that other countries want to be more involved and they want to be equal partners.

"That is really what us leaving the EU is all about.

"You dont stay a member of a club when the club doesnt work for you anymore.

"We know that there will be many countries across Europe that will be looking to see how Brexit works for us.

READ MORE:Brexit bombshell: Chance of no deal 'higher than ever'

"I wouldnt be surprised if we werent the only country to make the choice we have done in the future."

During the same interview with Express.co.uk Ms Lici told Michel Barnierto "wind his neck in" and get on with sensible negotiations over a post-Brexit trade deal.

TheConservative MP stated thatMr Barnier is full of bluster and threats regarding Britain's fishing waters.

Ms Nici also warned the EU's chief Brexit negotiator that the UK holds the cards during the trade talks.

The Conservative MP said: "Mr Barnier is full of bluster and threats.

"We have the cards, we are a sovereign nation and we have our fishing waters.

"At this point the EU fishing vessels are able to fish in our waters but that doesnt have to continue if we cant get on with a sensible deal.

"In my Grimsby words, Mr Barnier needs to wind his neck in and get on with some sensible negotiations."

DON'T MISSNicola Sturgeon told to honour Brexit 'promise' to Scottish fishermen[INSIGHT]British fisherman dismisses EU fears as he demands UK seize water[VIDEO]Remainers dealt crushing blow as expert warns Brexit extension trouble[VIDEO]

In June 2016 the UK voted to leave the European Union.

The UK officially left the European Union at the end of January this year.

Britain is currently in a transition period until the end of 2020 with the EU while the government negotiates a free trade deal with the bloc.

The transition will come to an end at the end of 2020. Boris Johnson has ruled out extending the transition period, despite the ongoing coronavirus crisis.

Here is the original post:

Germany and France must do THIS for EU survival or other nations will follow Brexit - Express.co.uk

Arsene Wenger has warned that Brexit could kill the Premier League and leave English football playing second fiddle to its continental rivals.

The former Arsenal manager believes that, as the UK Government continues its plans to leave the EU at the end of 2021, football in the country will suffer if imposed restrictions are too severe.

Wenger, who spent 22 years at the helm in North London, has warned that if the Premier Leagues worldwide exposure is diminished in any way, then the best players will depart.

And if that happens, then the best coaches wont be far behind.

Wenger, speaking on the first day of the Golden Coach Congress to Mirror Sports John Cross, said: Certainly, subconsciously maybe for some people, it [ Brexit ] was to regain some sovereignty of their own destiny. And football is completely the reverse.

When I arrived, English football belonged to English people. Today, the English Premier League belongs to foreign people.

How will that change? That will depend now on how Brexit will be applied to football.

"I've asked many people, nobody knows. Will people inside Europe be considered as foreign players who cannot play in the English Premier League? I don't know.

But if the rules are restrictive, they will kill the superiority of the Premier League.

Because today the Premier League depends on worldwide exposure, with the best players and worldwide ownership with multi-billion owners from around the world.

Last season English clubs dominated in Europe.

Both the Champions League and Europa League finals were all-English affairs, as Liverpool faced Spurs in Madrid and Arsenal met Chelsea in Baku.

Wenger insists that English football has benefited from its balance of foreign and local talent.

But he believes that, should restrictions be pushed upon the Premier League and subsequently enforced, it could see English football fall behind its rivals, in a manner not dissimilar to that which saw our top sides playing catch-up in the early-mid 1990s, following the ban on English clubs from continental competition in the late 80s.

When England was suspended from Europe (late 80s), when they came back, they were far behind, added Wenger, now working for FIFA.

But before they were excluded, they were dominating it.

So that shows you, that if you have no different influences, you drop slowly back.

In recent years English football has become a destination for the planets best coaches, with the likes of Jose Mourinho, Antonio Conte, Jurgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola raising the bar at their respective clubs.

Certainly, the money on offer has played its part, but Wenger insists that the main desire for the best coaches, is simply to work with the best players; provided the latter remain, so too will the former.

Asked whether foreign coaches could be put off coming to England in future, Wenger pondered: Not if you keep the best players.

They will want to go where the best players are. So overall, that will depend on the decisions made.

But I believe youre intelligent enough in England and love football enough not to destroy what is basically a diamond today.

Sign up to the Mirror Football email here for the latest news and transfer gossip.

See original here:

Arsene Wenger warns Brexit restrictions could kill Premier League and its global appeal - Mirror Online

Published: 13 Jun 2020 13:49

Minister tells UK Government that urgent support needed within days.

The double threat of coronavirus (COVID-19) and the potential loss of access to EU funding programmes could result in long-term damage to Scottish university research, unless the UK Government provides immediate financial support, according to Higher Education Minister Richard Lochhead.

The Scottish Funding Councils recent analysis suggests the countrys universities will lose around 72 million in academic year 2019-20 alone as a result of COVID-19. An operating deficit of between 384 million and 651 million in academic year 2020-21 is expected, due largely to the likely dramatic reduction in the number of international students, a major source of income for research. Those reductions do not take account of the potential loss of EU funding.

As Scotlands university courts prepare to meet to discuss their financial predicament, Mr Lochhead has this weekend written to the UK Science MinisterAmanda Solloway, insisting she urgently delivers a comprehensive package of funding for research to counter those twin threats, taking into account the particular interests of Scotlands universities.

Mr Lochhead has been participating in a UK taskforce co-chaired by Ms Solloway and the UK universities Minister Michelle Donelan - to consider some of the financial and logistical challenges facing university research as a result of the pandemic, such as an expected loss in international tuition fee income, the potential loss of early career and experienced research talent, a reduction in business and charity funding, and delays in crucial research projects.

Mr Lochhead said:

Its vital both for Scotlands economic recovery and to protect the nations global reputation for science and research excellence that the UK Treasury signals substantial support for our universities in the coming days. The UK has aspirations of being considered a science superpower - but the institutions that can deliver on that are facing their biggest ever financial crisis. As well as several being seriously affected by COVID-19, they face potentially losing EU funding and talent as a result of a Brexit that the scientific community has said spells bad news for the sector.

Many universities are, right now, having to make difficult strategic financial decisions about their future. In the current emergency, the continued lack of clarity over funding could very soon result in the direct loss of research talent, a reduction in our research capacity and the halting or cancelation of major capital projects, with a ripple effect on the wider economy and our future global research reputation and competitiveness.

Scotland has already put together an emergency COVID-19 support package worth an additional 75 million for our university research sector. But this direct Scottish Government commitment - which has already been allocated - must be urgently complemented by a substantial UK element to ensure appropriate fiscal support is made available to Scottish universities.

In addition, detailed arrangements following the end of the Brexit transition period are still unknown, such as whether the UK will associate to the hugely prestigious Horizon Europe research funding programme. The current programme Horizon 2020 has provided more than 536 million to Scottish institutions since 2014.

The Office of Budget Responsibility highlighted in April that universities could be the sector of the economy worst hit by the pandemic so its now more critical than ever to announce as a matter of urgency a UK-backed stabilisation package for Scottish university research - a sector which most recently has been making such a vital contribution to our efforts to fight COVID-19, and our economic and social recovery from it.

BACKGROUND

Participation in Horizon 2020 has been incredibly valuable to Scotland, supporting growth by investing in research and innovation. Since 2014, over 711 million of funding in research and innovation has been competitively won by Scottish organisations, with universities securing almost 75% (over 536 million) of this. The funding won by Scottish organisations since Horizon 2020 began is around 11% of the UKs Horizon 2020 funding (over 6.6 billion). Scottish universities receive an average of 8% of their total research funding from the EC around 100 million per year mostly from Horizon 2020.

View original post here:

Scottish research facing twin threats of COVID and Brexit - gov.scot - Scottish Government News

Brexit Party Chairman and former MEP Richard Tice claimed there were many benefits of Brexit for Britain that the EU is petrified of. During an interview with Express.co.uk, Mr Tice said if Britain becomes a success story it could spell trouble for the European Union. He said other countries will look at Britain as an example and may question whether they want to remain a member of the bloc.

Mr Tice said: "The EU has always been afraid of the UK not only surviving but thriving outside of the European Union.

"As we would basically be free to make our own judgements and decisions.

"With our interests in mind, we would be able to do free trade deals around the world, be able to use state aid to our advantage.

"There are loads of benefits from Brexit that the EU are petrified that we will do.

"Our economy will grow faster and we will have even more jobs and higher-skilled jobs."

DON'T MISS:Brussels panic: Michael Gove challenges EU with Brexit pressure tactic

Mr Tice also explained why he believed the EU was scared of the UK's progress and what it would mean for the bloc.

He said: "The EU simply can't have that sort of success story basically outside their front door.

"If we succeed then there will be other countries who are saying, hang on, I rather like what the UK has got."

The Brexit Party chairman reflected on the EU's attitudes towards the UK during the talks and argued the reasons why it has been difficult.

He continued: "They have always felt they have had to stamp down on us and bully us into submission.

"They were able to do that with the negotiating weakness and feebleness of Olly Robbins and Theresa May.

"But it is a completely new game now as we have got a determined Government and a chief negotiator in David Frost who actually believes what he is fighting for.

"I would say that is a pretty good starting point in my opinion."

READ MORE:

German memo showing secret slide towards super-state revealed[INSIGHT]Corbyn insider reveals why ex-Labour leader COULDN'T support Brexit[REVEALED]Corbyn insider launches attack against 'out of touch' Labour Party[EXCLUSIVE]

Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Michael Gove and Brexit negotiator David Frost are expected to put more pressure on the bloc in the next round of Brexit trade deal talks.

Cabinet Office Minister Penny Mordaunt explained to the House of Commons on Tuesday the pair would be working hard to ensure the UK succeeds in the next round of talks.

She explained the UK will emphasise Britain will not be agreeing to a transition period extension and will hold the EU accountable for upholding their commitments set out in the terms of the agreement.

Excerpt from:

'Petrified' EU facing crisis as Brexit success threatens to spell END of bloc, Tice warns - Express.co.uk

The downfall in UK output and Brexit issues suggest sterling may extend its slump while some troubles are brewing in America, Yohay Elam, an analyst at FXStreet, reports.

Read: UK GDP shrinks -20.4% MoM in April vs. -18.4% expected, GBP/USD unfazed

The UK economy contracted by 20.4% in April, worse than expected, and a horrible figure in absolute terms. Manufacturing output collapsed by 24.3%, a considerable miss in comparison to around 15% projected. The GDP figures have weighed on sterling and may have a longer effect as forecasts are downgraded for the second quarter and the full year.

The pound has been pounded by Brexit. While both sides agreed to intensify talks, London will formally tell Brussels that it is unwilling to extend the transition period beyond year-end. If negotiations are not fruitful, Britain will fall back to unfavorable World Trade Organization terms in 2021. Mutual accusations about the gridlock have been weighing on sterling.

Markets have finally taken note of a second wave of coronavirus as an official in Houston said the city is on the precipice of disaster and as a football stadium is being readied for use as a makeshift hospital. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the US will not lock down the economy and claimed testing and tracing capacity has improved.

COVID-19 concerns come on top of pessimism from the Federal Reserve, which sees a return to pre-pandemic output not before 2022. Investors seem unconvinced by the bank's unequivocal commitment to support the economy.

See the original post:

GBP/USD: Horrible UK GDP and Brexit hassles pounds the pound - FXStreet

The Covid-19 pandemic is absorbing all of us but we must not take our eye off the Brexit ball.

So much resource is being taken up with fighting the pandemic that it is unlikely a comprehensive trade deal between UK and EU can be concluded before the end of 2020, and impossible for UK governments to develop robust contingency plans for an inevitable no-deal crash out of the European Union.

It is, therefore, essential the UK Government agrees a two-year extension to the transition period with the EU. Crofters will then be able to plan for 2021 and 2022 whereas, at the moment, we have no idea what rules will be in place for next year. This is too important to be rushed to meet a self-imposed and arbitrary deadline.

Exports to the EU underpin the market for many crofters so it is vital these continue tariff-free for both beef and lamb.

We currently have exemplary high animal welfare, traceability and environmental standards. This is not only good for consumer, animal and planet, but is our main selling point. We should not reduce these standards or allow imports that do not conform to our standards.

The implications of these conditions are that we should continue to shadow EU standards if they change in the future. The UK should agree a trade deal with the EU before negotiating with the USA or other countries as the latter is likely to put pressure on our standards.

Similarly, we would not want to see tariffs reduced for imports of lamb or beef which would undercut our high-quality local produce.

A number of areas crucial to the Scottish rural economy rely on temporary and permanent immigration and this has to be able to continue after the transition period.

Continuing support payments at a UK level have been signalled for the life of this parliament this is vital and Scotland must get its fair share. There will be need for a UK framework across the four constituent countries and this must be agreed between all four countries, not imposed by Westminster.

Scotland can then develop its own support systems to fit its own needs within the agreed framework, which will include a replacement for the Less Favoured Area Support Scheme (LFASS) based on Areas of Natural Constraint (ANC) principles. This, you will recall, is the European scheme developed to target support to those areas facing natural constraints.

We had the option to join but the Scottish Government decided to opt out. This was partly under pressure from the farmers who benefit unjustly from LFASS and partly due to reluctance to disturb the shaky IT system support payments are still being lent as advances as the IT system cannot cope. The penalty for not joining ANC is that LFASS will be reduced to 40% next year.

The rest is here:

'Crofters must not take their eye off Brexit' - Press and Journal

Ive just seen a new report (from Best for Britain and the Social Market Foundation) on the double impact of Brexit and Coronavirus, and feel like Ive spotted an iceberg on the horizon that everyone else is ignoring.

The report shows that any change to our trade relationship with Europe during the Covid-19 recession will hurt the UK economy.

All regions of the UK including ours in the South East would face a severe impact should we leave the Brexit transition period without any kind of deal. Brexit is being forced on us, but we must protect our jobs, our services and our local businesses.

However, our communities are already stretched to breaking point by the coronavirus pandemic and we desperately need time to deal with that before we can turn our focus to our changing relationship with the EU.

Terry Enga, address withheld

Carers Week

Monday 8th June marks the start of Carers Week 2020, a week dedicated to raising awareness of the extraordinary efforts and many challenges faced by carers every day around the United Kingdom, made only harder by the current Coronavirus pandemic.

Around 6.5 million people in the UK are carers, and many are solely responsible for the wellbeing of a disabled person who may rely on them completely, sometimes 24/7, and during the crisis many of these carers have had no access to a respite break for nearly three months. I work for Revitalise, an amazing national charity that usually creates holidays for disabled people and carers at three accessible respite centres in Chigwell in Essex, Southampton and Southport. However, during the current COVID-19 crisis, our team is offering their facilities at Revitalise Sandpipers and Netley Waterside House as a place to stay safe either short or long term, for disabled people no longer able to get the care they need at home. Anybody who is worried about whether their care support at home can continue, should contact Revitalise, who are able to offer long or short stays with full care support in place.

Devon Prosser

http://www.revitalise.org.uk

More here:

Bracknell readers send in their letters this week - Bracknell News

LONDON The coronavirus epidemic in Britain has killed more than 40,000 people, sickened hundreds of thousands more, including Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and paralyzed the economy. Now it may claim another casualty: a trade agreement between Britain and the European Union.

On Friday, the two sides announced that they had made little headway in their efforts to strike a post-Brexit trade deal. With a deadline at the end of the year, and the last chance to ask for an extension looming this month, Mr. Johnsons government argues that it would rather walk away without a deal than prolong the talks.

While that may be posturing and, indeed, Britain now says it wants to step up the pace of negotiations next month, the pandemic has scrambled the governments economic and political calculations. A no-deal outcome, which once seemed all but impossible, now seems entirely plausible.

Far from pressuring Mr. Johnson to plead for more time, the pandemic is reordering the global economy in ways that have led some to question whether an agreement with Europe even makes sense for Britain anymore. With Mr. Johnson under fire for his chaotic handling of the virus, the compromises he would have to make with Brussels might be too great for his embattled government.

Covid-19, in the eyes of the government, has further reduced the value of a deal, said Mujtaba Rahman, a former European Commission economist now at the political risk consulting firm, Eurasia Group. The economy after the crisis is going to look fundamentally different than before the crisis, and the government wants a freer hand in reshaping that economy.

Britain formally left the European Union at the end of January, but it is staying under the blocs rules until the end of the year, as the two sides try to hammer out permanent arrangements on everything from fisheries to finance.

Mr. Rahman once argued that an extension to this transition period was likely. But he now predicts a slightly better-than-even chance that the negotiators will fail to come to terms, meaning that Britain would default to trading with the European Union on World Trade Organization terms in 2021 what is commonly called a no-deal Brexit.

Such an outcome would shock the British economy analysts have revived scenarios of trucks lined up for miles at the English Channel that loomed over previous rounds of Brexit brinkmanship but others argue that the disruption would be washed away in the epochal upheaval of the pandemic.

As high as the economic stakes are, the politics are even more important for Mr. Johnson, after three months in which he has faced a drumbeat of criticism over his handling of the pandemic.

By contrast, Mr. Johnson is back in his comfort zone when rehearsing the arguments that he used to win the referendum on leaving the European Union in 2016 and an election three years later.

Mr. Johnsons overriding objective, analysts said, is to be seen to take a much tougher negotiating position than his predecessor, Theresa May. Some key differences with the European Union are on points of principle ones that British officials doubt would be resolved with extra negotiating time. And staying in Europes trading regime for longer would mean paying it billions of pounds more, a politically poisonous outcome for Mr. Johnson.

Mr. Johnsons government escalated tensions with the European Union over the last month through the exchange of antagonistic letters, though on Friday, it took a more modulated tone.

The U.K.s ultimate red line is to be able to say We have beaten up the European Union, regardless of what is in any trade deal, said David Henig, director of the U.K. Trade Policy Project at the European Center for International Political Economy, a research institute in Brussels, who added this was achieved by the sharp exchange of letters.

While Mr. Henig said Mr. Johnson would probably prefer a deal and indeed used similar brinkmanship to retain Brexit hard-liners support in the previous phase of negotiations some around him would be happier without one. The decisions about whether, or how much, to compromise have yet to be made. With crunchtime approaching, political considerations are pulling Mr. Johnson toward obduracy rather than flexibility.

Inside his Conservative Party, Brexit remains a touchstone issue. Some of the critics of Mr. Johnsons coronavirus response, including his cautious relaxation of lockdown and belated plans to quarantine arriving travelers for 14 days, also happen to be hard-line Brexit supporters. For Mr. Johnson, it makes little sense to alienate them now by compromising over post-Brexit trade arrangements.

Much of the governments Brexit rhetoric seems directed more at a British audience than a continental European one, said Joachim Fritz-Vannahme, a senior adviser at the Bertelsmann Foundation in Germany. It is clear that there is infighting among Brexiteers and among the Conservatives in general, he said.

On the European side, the likelihood of failure has grown, too, simply because the trade talks have fallen down the list of priorities, dwarfed by the ramifications of Europes response to the pandemic.

The focus has completely changed, Mr. Fritz-Vannahme said. There are only 24 hours in a day, and leaders are already negotiating almost permanently, so I could imagine them saying, This is a minor problem in comparison to the coming recession and the pandemic.

Although the working-level negotiations have proceeded relatively smoothly by teleconference, David Frost, the chief British negotiator, said, we are close to the limits of what we can achieve in that format. British officials are seeking face-to-face negotiations in July but say they do not want uncertainty for business to linger into the fall.

The European Unions chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, said, I dont think we can go on like this forever. If anything, his tone was harsher than Mr. Frosts. He accused Mr. Johnson of reneging on commitments he made in the political declaration that set the stage for Britains exit.

Updated June 5, 2020

The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nations job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.

Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.

Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid, says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. When you havent been exercising, you lose muscle mass. Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.

States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you arent being told to stay at home, its still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.

Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus whether its surface transmission or close human contact is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.

Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.

If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)

The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people dont need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks dont replace hand washing and social distancing.

If youve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.

Moreover, there are tensions over new checks on trade with Northern Ireland, a part of the United Kingdom that shares a border with Ireland, which remains in the European Union.

For now, European political leaders show little sign of wanting to get involved in the talks. The next critical discussion for which no date has been set yet will be between Mr. Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, the European Unions executive body.

Some analysts argue that the pandemic will drive Britain and other countries to bring manufacturing home to reduce their dependence on global supply chains. That, in turn, will lessen the need for an agreement with Brussels.

But while Brexit supporters argue that the effects of leaving without a trade deal could be buried beneath the economic losses wrought by the coronavirus, analysts think there would be visible damage.

Ports could clog and supply chains may seize up. The Japanese carmaker Nissan said this week that its factory in Sunderland, in the depressed northeast of England, would not be economically viable without a tariff-free trade agreement.

For companies already reeling under a collapse of demand and furloughed employees because of the pandemic, the prospect of another shock in January could be too much to bear, according to business lobbyists.

If youre in new levels of debt as a result of coronavirus, you cannot afford to deal with Brexit, Nicole Sykes, head of European Union negotiations at the Confederation of British Industry, wrote on Twitter. Just because the house is on fire doesnt mean also setting fire to the shed is chill.

Some analysts said the consequences of a disruptive break with the European Union would become more obvious after the summer, and that these arguments about burying Brexit in the pandemic would evaporate.

Its quite foolhardy to say that because the economic impact of coronavirus will be large that no one will notice the difference, said Sam Lowe, a trade expert at the Center for European Reform in London. Its a sophistic argument that because weve been thrown to the floor, we wont feel another kick.

Originally posted here:

How the Coronavirus Makes a No-Deal Brexit More Likely - The New York Times

The European Union fears that the UK government is deliberately stalling on Brexit trade-deal negotiations and may secretly be aiming to exit European trade arrangements without first agreeing to a new deal.

The UK is due to exit Europe's trade and customs arrangements at the end of 2020 despite growing pressure from business groups and opposition political parties to extend the Brexit transition period.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government insists the country will leave regardless of whether a new trade deal is negotiated.

The hardline stance, in which few concessions are being offered to the EU, has led some in Brussels to wonder whether the UK government even wants to sign a new trade deal before 2021.

"The chasm is both broad and deep," an EU source close to negotiations told Business Insider.

"Increasing numbers here" in Brussels "wonder if the British government wants a deal at all."

This chasm was illustrated recently by a novel exchange of letters between the UK's chief negotiator, David Frost, and his EU counterpart, Michel Barnier.

Frost, chosen by Johnson to lead the UK side, said that the UK was "perplexed" by the EU's approach, which he recently branded "ideological," and Brussels was offering an unfair trade deal.

Barnier over the weekend told the Sunday Times newspaper that the UK needed to show "more realism" in talks, and he accused Johnson of rowing back on commitments he signed up to during the Article 50 negotiations.

"There is a big gap on level playing field, governance, and fisheries, and the talks are not going awfully well," Hilary Benn, the chair of the House of Commons' Future Relationship with the EU committee, told Business Insider.

Anand Menon, the director at the UK in a Changing Europe think tank, said he didn't think there would be a breakthrough during this week's talks, despite it being the last full round scheduled before a crunch meeting later this month, where both sides are to take stock of progress.

"Neither side is ready to give concessions this week," he told Business Insider. "Both sides are reconciled to a 'meh' sort of summit where everyone is unhappy, but nobody wants to walk."

Raoul Ruparel, who served as chief Europe adviser to Johnson's predecessor, Theresa May, said a failure to make significant progress by the end of this week's round of talks could put the entire negotiation in jeopardy.

"It looks like we're heading to some sort of bust-up over the big issues," he told Business Insider.

"And the question is, what is the path back to the table and getting things back on track?

"If there is a falling out, the path back looks quite challenging."

This standoff is fueling concerns that the UK is set to walk away without a deal when the transition period ends in December, creating more chaos for supply chains and businesses being pushed to the limit by the COVID-19 outbreak.

UK opposition parties have urged Johnson to avoid this outcome by extending the transition period, which is scheduled to end December 31. The deadline for doing so is just a few weeks away, on June 31. The two sides can jointly agree to extend transition by up to two years, under the terms of the withdrawal agreement.

Major business groups have issued the same plea. The logistics industry has warned the UK government that British hauliers cannot prepare for January while dealing with the effects of the novel coronavirus. Other business groups are waiting for the outcome of this month's crunch meeting before deciding whether to also go public.

Yet despite warnings about the damage a crashing out on January 1 would do, the UK government is insistent that it will neither request nor accept an extension to the transition period and this message has been heard loud and clear in EU capitals. Johnson's government says extending the transition would only create more uncertainty for business and delay the UK's sovereign decision to detach itself from the EU's core institutions.

The UK's hardline opposition to extending the transition period has created suspicion in Brussels that Johnson's government is actually aiming to leave without a deal.

Phil Hogan, the EU's trade chief, last month said the UK was not approaching negotiations seriously and planned to blame the economic woe caused by leaving the EU without a trade deal on the devastating impact of COVID-19.

One member of Johnson's Cabinet recently told The Spectator that "the costs of an Australian-style deal have dropped massively" because the pandemic had already done massive damage to UK businesses and supply chains.

Menon said he believed that while Johnson would prefer a deal he was not averse to leaving without one.

"There's no doubt they are serious about their red lines," he said. "They are absolutely serious about not being under EU law. The UK is perfectly willing not to have a deal, but they're preference is to have a deal."

He said part of the UK's thinking was that there would be significant disruption for businesses whatever happens, given Johnson is not seeking a close relationship with the EU of the sort pursued by his predecessor, May.

"The gap between deal and no deal is thinner than it's ever been before," Menon said. "They have the argument that businesses are going to have to adapt anyway, so they might as well adapt to all the changes at once."

Labour MP Hilary Benn, who has chaired the Brexit committee since 2017, agreed with Menon, pointing to what he said was a relatively relaxed UK government approach to securing a new trading relationship with the UK's biggest trading partner.

"It's extraordinary that the government has not done an updated economic assessment of the kind of deal it's looking for with the EU, whereas on the US trade deal there were 50 to 60 pages of assessment," Benn told Business Insider.

"I cannot for the life of me understand why our most important relationship is treated in that way."

A detailed new report by the Social Market Foundation for the Best For Britain campaign group says that the combined impact of COVID-19 and leaving the transition period without a trade deal would create pockets of economic damage nationwide, with the northwest and the West Midlands being the most severely affected.

The UK's chief negotiator, David Frost. REUTERS/Francois Lenoir/File Photo

While the prospects of this week's talks producing a breakthrough appear remote, some observers point out that neither side is likely to make key concessions until later in the year anyway.

"The UK and EU only expect real movement towards the end of summer and beginning of autumn," Georgina Wright of the Institute for Government think tank told Business Insider.

"It's completely normal at the start of negotiations for there to be little movement and for both sides sticking rigidly to their positions. They want to get a sense of the full spectrum and what trade-offs are possible."

Wright said a likely outcome of this week's talks was "both sides saying there hasn't been sufficient progress, but they are confident that there will be in the coming weeks," paving the way for talks to continue over the summer.

Menon agreed. "The breakthrough probably won't be until September or October. It'll be late in the day," he said.

Johnson has previously threatened to walk away from negotiations and prepare the UK to trade with the EU on costly World Trade Organization rules if there isn't enough progress in talks by the crunch meeting in June.

Both sides are expected to continue negotiating into the summer, however, even if there is a bust-up this week.

Wright said that while recent exchanges between London and Brussels had been frosty, the UK's decision to publish its draft negotiating text could be key to unlocking negotiations if, as expected, they continued beyond this month.

"That's possibly the best way to try to get the EU member states to move from their position," she said.

"Now member states can reflect on the UK's text, and get a better sense of where the UK is coming from."

If a breakthrough does eventually arrive, what could it look like?

The former UK government official Ruparel said it would "involve a bit of give-and-take on both sides," with the EU making concessions on the emotive issue of fisheries and the UK on what the EU calls the level playing field a set of rules meant to prevent businesses in the UK from undercutting the EU and vice versa.

"In most areas there is a landing zone that would seem reasonable to both sides," Ruparel told Business Insider.

Nicolas Economou/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Ruparel warned, however, that the toughest issue to resolve would be state aid, on which "the gap is huge."

"The area I find hardest to see a landing zone is state aid," he said. "It's politically and technically complex."

Even if UK and EU negotiators do overcome their differences and reach an agreement, the December deadline for implementation is much tighter than in normal trade negotiations.

"The problem here is we don't have the luxury of time," the Institute for Government's Wright told Business Insider. "You can't take the talks to the wire in December in the same way you did with the Article 50 negotiations."

Compared with talks over the Brexit withdrawal agreement, which concluded late last year, the EU's process for ratifying a trade deal is more complex and will require several weeks before December 31.

This means, in reality, the two sides have just a few months to strike a deal. In total, UK and EU negotiators have less than a year to negotiate a free-trade agreement, while most deals take a few years to be thrashed out and put into law.

"If there is a breakthrough, it can begin to move quite quickly, potentially," Ruparel told Business Insider. "If there is a big breakthrough, the rest can fall into place. But the absolute latest would have to be the end of October or start of November. That's when you'd have to get things pushed towards ratification."

The Institute for Government on Saturday released a paper setting out other ways both sides could create more time for talks while extending transition remains off the table. Both the UK and the EU have already ruled out one option, which is attaching to a trade deal an implementation period for businesses to prepare for new trading arrangements.

The UK in a Changing Europe's Menon said that while a major breakthrough in negotiations was more likely in the autumn, so was Johnson taking the nuclear option and deciding to walk away from talks altogether.

"Politically, a lot of it is about the blame game," Menon said.

"I don't think politically it makes much sense for the UK to walk away now. It makes more sense to continue to negotiate, to look reasonable, and then turn around in the autumn and say, 'Well, look the EU screwed us.'"

Read more:

The EU is beginning to believe the UK actually wants the Brexit trade deal talks to fail - Business Insider - Business Insider

Most of us who have followed Brexit closely believed coronavirus would soften the governments stance in trade talks with Europe. The economic shock triggered by the pandemic, and the fact Whitehall is so overwhelmed managing it, made it more likely the government would extend the transition period, due to expire at the end of this year, or strike a deal. It turns out that the opposite is true. Rather than encouraging a more flexible and pragmatic approach, Covid-19 has instead reinforced the case for no deal at the very top of government.

Perhaps the most important driver is the belief among ministers that the UK economy will be permanently reshaped by the crisis, as companies create new supply chains and reshore production to provide greater resilience in the future, not least in case of another pandemic. The government wants a free hand to facilitate this change, one that it believes would be constrained by the EUs demand that the UK remain tied to its labour and environmental standards and state aid rules.

On the other side of the same coin, there are growing fears in cabinet that maintaining close EU ties would lock the UK into the EUs post-Covid-19 economic measures designed for its 27 member states, with little regard for the UKs interests.This is nonsense, as theEUs rescue package unveiled last Wednesday assumes no UK financial contribution. But it is a powerful argument on the Eurosceptic backbenches and has scared many in cabinet.

Anotherargument popular with backbench Brexiteers, but now more prominent among ministers, is the belief that coronavirus presents the government with an opportunity to bury theloss of growth from no trade deal under the cover of the much more dramatic drop in GDP caused by coronavirus.

The politics of this are very juicy for the Vote Leave team in the driving seat in government. Not least because it is only really a no deal that fully delivers on their substantive divergence agenda, while anyversion of a deal with the EU, no matter how distant, will ultimately tie the UK into EU rules and regulations in some way, an idea they hate and are loth to accept.No deal alsofacilitates a trade deal with the US, and the symbolism of Global Britain is key for ministers far more important than the limited economic benefit a UK-US trade pact would bring.

Time is also running out. Despite three rounds of talks so far, no progress has been made and negotiators on both sides are downbeat about the likelihood of a breakthrough this week.Big gaps remain in the UK over whether and how far to align to EU standards, the role of the European court of justice and the EUs demands to fish in UK waters. Butthe government wont extend the transition period. Boris Johnson believes he would struggle to sell to voters the extra 10bn in financial contributions and further spell of EU control of UK laws that this would bring.

A political intervention on both sides will therefore be needed to move beyond the current stage. There will l be an opportunity this month, when Johnson meets the European commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, virtually, around the time of a long-planned EU leaders session in June to review progress.But the EU is unlikely to change its mandate and absent progress, ministers plan to make a judgment in September so they can give business clarity about the trading arrangements from 1 January. They may switch to assuming and preparing for no deal then.

Finally, the survival of Dominic Cummings, Johnsons closest adviser, despite allegations he broke the lockdown rules, also enhances the prospect of no deal. One reason why Brexiteer ministers and aides rallied behind him is that he sees it as his personal mission to prevent Johnson extending the transition period in June, and delivering a version of Brexit that lets the UK take back control. It would be wrong to underestimate his impact on the outcome of these negotiations.

Of course, this could all be tactics and bluster. Johnsonand his cheerleaders on the backbenches have convinced themselves that such brinkmanship worked during the withdrawal agreement talks, so it is no real surprise they intend to repeat the trick now. Especially as they believe, wrongly, that coronavirus will make the EU more desperate to conclude a deal and buckle at the last moment. But Downing Street is right that December is the real deadline.

Germanys role will be key. I say this not as a naive Brit, believing that Angela Merkel will ride to Britains rescue, but as someone who has spent more than two decades studying and working on EU affairs. With Germany at the head of Europes rotating presidency, and Merkel in the final throes of her chancellorship, she will find it very hard to sign off on no deal. Of all of the EUs member states, Germany has been the most focused on the longer-term, geopolitical risk of no deal, and the necessity for the UK and EU to maintain constructive ties.

But even Merkel cant and wont save the UK from itself, and will not agree to a deal at any price.If the net effect of Covid-19 is that ministers see more benefit than cost from no deal, with the dominant view in cabinet now opposed to extending the transitional period, then that will indeed be the outcome at the end of this year.

Mujtaba Rahman is the managing director for Europe at Eurasia Group, a political risk research and consulting firm

View original post here:

The pandemic is being used as cover for a no-deal Brexit - The Guardian