Category Archives: Brexit

No matter which side of the divide you stand on, there can be few doubts that the Brexit vote from 52:48 decision to today has been a blight on the health of the UK automotive industry, subsequent currency swings robbing many operators of profits and buyers of lower-cost car deals, as well as hitting consumer confidence.

It has also coincided with a collapse in investment in UK automotive, although Brexit is just one of many pressures at play. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, which exists to promote the interests of the industry but can be relied on to tread a numerically factual path, estimates that an average of 4 billion a year was being invested in the sector from 2012 to 2015, but only 1.1bn from 2016 to 2019.

The announcement of the closure of Hondas Swindon plant and a U-turn by Nissan on investment in Sunderland also stand out as further lows albeit with both firms doing all they could to avoid the B-word. However, common sense surely suggests that car makers looking to make long-term investments will prefer to do so in countries that guarantee stability and certainty.

Then there are the costs of planning for regulatory changes from 1 January, the crucial details of which are still to be ironed out. To date, the bill stands at more than 500m, the SMMT says.

Nor is there positive news on the horizon. The frustrating reality for much of the industry is that even the best possible deal will only replicate what it had within the EU, albeit with hoped-for wiggle room to strike its own deals in future, while the worst-case no-deal scenario throws up the likelihood of two-way tariffs and red tape. The SMMT estimates no deal would cost the industry about 90bn through to 2025.

Why, then, do some still talk up the industrys post-Brexit prospects?

Typically, they divide two ways. There are free marketeers, who argue that working to the UKs own agenda will be to its benefit in the long term, as its relative prosperity will mean that other nations will want to work with it to be able to sell their good and services in, as well as export ours out.

Then there are those who hope for biases to play out in the UK industrys favour following the break. This is particularly true for firms developing early-stage R&D projects, which currently struggle to get adequate funding from the UK government as EU rules preclude such favouritism.

The question is when or if the costs of leaving will ever be recouped, the scale of that challenge unknown until negotiations are concluded. Even then, the waters may prove to be too muddied for anyone to ever know the answer.

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The Swindon factory closure: how Honda got Europe so wrong

Nissan Sunderland plant unsustainable without a Brexit deal

Nissan and Toyota to seek compensation from UK in no-deal Brexit

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Inside the industry: How long will Brexit blight the car world? - Autocar

Will French residents travelling with pet dogs to the UK next year have to obtain a rabies titration test for their pet?

A spokesman for the UKs Defra ministry confirmed that it intends to maintain the status quo with regard to pet travel from EU countries once Brexit applies fully next year. It will still recognise EU pet passports, as now, whether the EU passport was issued before or after January 1, 2021.

These EU pet passports will therefore remain valid documents for coming into the UK, as will British EU pet passports issued before December 31, 2021 (the UK will not be able to issue these after this date).

This will be sufficient for entry and so it will not be necessary to also obtain a rabies titration test to go to the UK (an antibody blood test to show that the animals rabies jab is working).

You will still however have to comply with the usual UK requirement of a tapeworm treatment, no less than 24 hours and no more than 120 hours before travel, and as usual, the animal must be microchipped (or have a readable tattoo done before July 3, 2011).

However an issue may arise for returning to the EU, ie. France, and this will depend on whether or not the UK is deemed a listed country, under part 1 or part 2 of EU regulation 577/2013's annexe on pet travel.

The rules for pet travel from listed countries are simpler than those for unlisted, and are simplest if the country is placed on list 1. How a country is designated depends on agreement by the EU authorities.

The UK has made a request to be listed under part 1, but it is waiting for a decision by the European Commission. A commission spokesman was unable to provide any information on the progress of this but said "the process is ongoing".

Note firstly that a British-issued EU pet passport will not, in any case, be considered a valid document for entering France with a pet from January 1, 2021, so if you are using a British document you may wish to change if for a French-issued one to minimise potential paperwork complications on return.

Secondly, all pets entering the EU from unlisted countries, even if they are returning having previously left from the EU, must have had a rabies titration blood test.

If this test was done in the UK then it needs to be done at least three months before the animal comes into France, so it may be practical to have it done in France before you travel.

Once you have had it done once, the test does not have to be redone for the animals life as long as rabies booster jabs are kept up to date.

Should I change UK pet passport to French version?

How will British pet owners be affected by Brexit?

For more on pet travel next year and other important matters about how Brexit will affect Britons living in or visiting France, see our Help Guide onBrexit and Britons in France.It is in a digital format and updates automatically assignificant new informationis released and we updatethe guide.

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Brexit: Will pet need rabies antibody test to go to UK? - The Connexion

The staggering cost of a NO DEAL BREXIT for Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel has been revealed by a new report.

A new report reveals that France and Germany are set for a whopping 11.98 billion (10.7 billion) bill unless the European Union can secure a Brexit deal with Britain.

The blocs two largest economies would have to shoulder the burden of a 33.6 billion (30 billion) loss in trade with the UK in a no-deal scenario according to the new report. German insurance giants Allianz have revealed potential slumps in business for car-makers, chemical producers and other manufacturers across the bloc if chief negotiator Michel Barnier refuses to budge in the wrangling over a post-Brexit trade deal.

The report urges EU leaders, such as Germanys Angela Merkel and Frances Emmanuel Macron, to agree to a compromise to prevent a loss of 33.6 billion (30 billion) in the blocs exports to the UK because of the introduction of trade tariffs. It seems like Boris Johnsons delay tactics seem to be working- the UK could indeed come out on top after all. TW

Thank you for taking the time to read this news article Revealed- The Staggering Cost of a NO DEAL BREXIT for France and Germany. For more UK daily news, Spanish daily news and Global news stories, visit the Euro Weekly News home page.

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Revealed- The Staggering Cost of a NO DEAL BREXIT for France and Germany - Euro Weekly News

Many US expats living in the UK are caught between a rock and a hard place.

They are wondering if they should stick it out in Brexit Britain, or go home and brave a second Trump term.

Americans will be heading to the polls on the 3rd of November to decide if Donald Trump or Joe Biden will win the top job.

Supporters of both candidates feel this election could change their home country for good, leading some to consider jumping ship.

The London based accountancy firm, Bambridge Accountants, found that 5,816 Americans gave up their citizenship in the first six months of 2020, up an enormous 1,210% from the previous year.

While some renounce their citizenship because of onerous tax returns requirements, the firm also found that for many, the pandemic has motivated [them] to cut ties and avoid the current political climate.

Jamie Mac, 39, who is originally from Denver, Colorado but now lives in Edinburgh, is one such expat who is considering her future with the US.

I think the election will influence our decision to return...in this pandemic the cracks that were already there in the US have just widened even more, He said.

This isnt just a Republican versus Democrat, this is literally democracy versus the Trump administration.

He added: If Biden is elected I would lean more towards being ok going back, however Biden has four years and a lot of the things which need to be fixed in the US, like gun control and healthcare are going to take a lot longer than four years to fix.

Safety and healthcare are pressing issues for many US expats in the UK. Heather Bee, 46, who lives in York but is originally from Connecticut, is planning on voting for the Democrats in the upcoming election.

She said: Over recent years conservatism has become more extreme and religion seems to be interfering in government policy.

At this point the only chance the US has for recovery is stopping Trump. It would be irresponsible as a human being to not vote for Joe Biden.

But she said she is likely to stay in the UK regardless of the result.

Its a better life for our daughter, she said.

She doesnt ever have to have active shooter drills at school. If she gets hurt I dont have to stop and worry about whether I have enough money in the bank.

Theres a lot more security in her life here.

Lucius Reibel, 22, moved to the UK from Massachusetts to study at The University of St Andrews. Like Jamie and Heather, he sees a Trump defeat as essential for Americas future.

He said: I was a strong supporter of Bernie Sanders in the primaries, but I recognise how important it is to elect Biden and remove Trump from office. This country is coming apart at the seams after only four years; another four would lead us even further down this dark path."

But he believes that if Trump wins, the better option is to go back to the US and resist Trumpism.

I think abandoning my country in a time of crisis would be a cowards move. It would be an admission that this is Trumps country now, and that I didnt think it was worth trying to save, he said.

Things could get a lot worse in the US, but they could also get much better. I would like to believe that by staying [in the US], I can help make a better outcome more likely.

Not every US expat in the UK supports the Democrats.

Spencer Shia, 20, from Illinois, who studies at UCL, identifies as a moderate Republican with hints of libertarianism.

He is planning on voting for Joe Biden in the upcoming election, but for Republicans in the gubernatorial and congressional races also happening on election day.

He said: Good conservative policy like deregulation and tax cuts only matter so long as we are actually able to get them through, and I think Trump and his messaging has been quite alienating.

Trump makes them toxic ideas with the rhetoric and the language he uses.

America is more diverse and socially liberal than its ever been. Wait two or three election cycles and were not going to be winning elections anymore.

Like Lucius, regardless of the election result, he thinks it is better to return to the US.

I want to enter public service for the US, as corny as this sounds, I do want to serve my country, he added.

Lucas de Carvalho, 21, is from Maryland and now lives in Fife. He is a registered Republican but says he doesnt identify with the party as much anymore. Like Spencer, he will likely vote for Biden, and Republicans down the ballot.

Its hard to look at Trumps presidency as successful, he said.

Referring to coronavirus, he said: You dont have to be a doctor to know that the US has been a disaster in terms of the response, not just in terms of cases but how the economy has done.

He says that if Trump wins a second term he would be more likely to stay in the UK.

You lose confidence in the national project if you give a second term to somebody who seems to have bungled the coronavirus response so greatly.

Dom Toni, 70, is also a Republican who is unlikely to return home, but for very different reasons to Lucas.

He likes Trump because of his honesty and straight shooting with the facts. Hes not a politician.

Although he dislikes that UK gun laws are more restrictive, if Trump loses he will stay in the UK.

I don't want to live in a progressive left-wing society that will destroy all that is good about the US.

All you have to do is look at states and cities run by the left wing socialists. All broke, corrupt, high taxes, high crime.

Another Trump supporter wished to remain anonymous as he works in education, and he feels schools and agencies are extremely biased against Americans and Trump.

I like how hes direct and he gets things done.

He has been a man of action despite the fact hes had two different parties in control of congress.

The Democrats like to steamroll things and not be collegial.

He plans to stay in the UK for the foreseeable future.

Im scared of the unrest, I dont think I want to go back, referring to the riots that have broken out in major US cities in response to the killing of George Floyd in May.

Its going to get worse before it gets better.

Originally posted here:

US expats wonder whether to stay in Brexit Britain or brave second Trump term - Mirror Online

With Brexit kicking in on January 1, deals being seemingly renegaded on and of course the uncertainties surrounding Covid-19 and a possible recession looming, it does not look great for the regions manufacturers.

According to Make UK/BDO Manufacturing Outlook Q3 survey, investment intentions fell by a balance of -31% in the last quarter of the year.

The average SME in South West has lost 38% of their income as a result of Covid-19. Many SMEs in Devon and Cornwall are reporting significant losses due to Covid-19, with 32% seeing a decrease of more than 70% of their income. Meanwhile 14% of SMEs in the region have said the health of their business has already been damaged long-term.

While not reaching the levels of cutbacks seen during the financial crisis as yet, the trend downwards is following a similar pattern to that seen at the time and reflects the difficult picture for the aerospace sector in particular which accounts for a fifth of regional output.

Looking forward, given the impact on the sector, Make UK is now forecasting that manufacturing output will fall by almost 11% (10.9%) this year while it has downgraded its forecast for recovery in 2021 by more than a full percentage point from 6.2% to 5.1%. GDP is forecast to fall by -8.5% this year before recovering by +10.1% in 2021.

However, the national manufacturers body has warned that given the uncertainty surrounding the Brexit negotiations and the very real possibility of no deal, the combination of that outcome with the continued impact of the pandemic could cause further damage to investment prospects in the latter part of the year.

Jim Davison, region director for Make UK in the South West, said: Manufacturing has begun to climb away from the abyss that it stared into earlier in the year. But, make no mistake it is going to be a long haul back towards normal trading conditions, with talk of a V shaped recovery nothing more than fanciful.

Having emerged from three years of political uncertainty at the end of last year, increasing talk of a final no deal exit from the EU would be a final nail in the coffin for many companies.

If we are to avoid this and, the avalanche of job losses that would follow in already hard hit areas and sectors, it is essential that the first step towards a fuller recovery is provided by a comprehensive trade agreement with the EU.

Businesses however have welcomed the announcement by the Chancellor Rishi Sunak in his Winter Economy Plan at the end of September, which aims to find an alternative to the furlough scheme that was due to come and an end in October.

The new Job Support Scheme, starting in November, will mean the government will pay part of workers' wages who have lost hours while a VAT cut to 5% will remain in place until next Easter, a

The cut in VAT to 5% for the hospitality and tourism sector will be extended until 31 March and that too has been welcome to promote demand and help business rebuild their cash reserves through the tough winter months.

Kim Conchie, chief executive of Cornwall Chamber of Commerce, said the future ways to doing business will suit Cornwall better than the old 20th century model and while we are going through tough times now, there is hope for future growth too.

Eric Nicholls, the chairman of the Cornwall Manufacturing Group, said it has been a mixed picture for its members with manufacturers supplying the aeronautic and automotive industries suffering the most when those supplying the health and hospital sectors working flat out.

He said 80% of the members had made use of the furlough scheme and would do so again if it is proposed in another form by the Chancellor of the Exchequer.

However he admitted that it had been tough and 60% of members had made redundancies with one in 10 jobs lost in the sector in Cornwall since the start of pandemic.

Mr Nicholls said: It has been a challenging year but not as bad as some sectors like tourism, leisure or hospitality. Our members are saying they have reduced order books and thats a concern. Any furlough 2.0 scheme will be helpful in retaining staff even on a part-time basis so order books can be fulfilled.

I think going into next year could be tough especially its impact supply chains. As for Brexit, a lot of the details are still missing but most firms are prepared as much as they can by now so it shouldnt be the problem we thought it would be a year ago.

For Mr Conchie added: We are looking better in Cornwall than the national average. Cornish businesses are naturally resilient and used to run on thin margins rather than fat cats. Our SMEs are well embedded in their communities and will do what they can to avoid redundancies.

People have been looking at innovative and creative ways to work differently or even create new businesses to avoid any recession. I think if our local businesses can hold their nerves until next spring we should be OK.

Some businesses have been forced to operate at 60% or 70% capacity because of social distancing regulations while others have still not reopened.

One such business to have seen production stop overnight was Bott in Bude which specialises in workplace storage solutions. On March 24, production was shut down and only gradually reopened in May.

CEO Nick Smith said: We are a family company with a resilient balance sheet. When we announced the shut-down, we decided to top up the furlough payment until the end of May.

Unfortunately, with the clear volume reduction, we had to right size the business and sadly we will have lost 41 employees.

At the start of the lockdown, furlough clearly helped, but we took the difficult action early. I do fear for those zombie businesses who have used furlough to drag out the inevitable.

Mr Conchie believes businesses need to remain confident which may be easier said than done in view of the situation with the pandemic and faltering Brexit negotiations.

He said: We are at an unprecedented moment in history when after giving our word we show some cavalier attitude to a deal with have signed. Our standing in the world could be damaged by this and that doesnt fill businesses with confidence.

Some precision manufacturers in the Duchy who export all over Europe are worried about the implications of Brexit especially if it leads to countries like France or Italy deciding to do their own.

If Covid-19 is kept under control I think the tourism industry could see a bumper year next year which is good for Cornwall. Brexit may actually help on that front as people will look to staycations again.

I have no doubt that the hospitality industry will once again push the boat out to offer a first class service to visitors next year.

He said the service sector had also shown signs of having adapted remarkably well to the new normal and seemed unaffected with estate agents for example enjoying a boom time.

He added: Im not expecting a cliff edge at the end of October when a third of people will lose their jobs. But I think the furlough scheme needs to be applied with greater agility.

Mr Smith believes supporting the British manufacturing, innovation and continued investment, will be key in the coming months especially as we head into further unknown with Brexit.

He said: Backing British manufacturing is definitely a strong message for all our stakeholders, particularly with Brexit looming. We will block and tackle those things outside of our control, but we are accelerating our efforts for the things we can control.

I would like to think by the end of 2021, we start to get back to 90% of pre-covid volumes. One thing is for sure, the strong teams in Bott will continue to adapt and innovate!

Matthew Sewell, Head of Manufacturing at BDO in the South West echoed the sentiment, adding: Other countries do provide good examples of consistent long term support to their manufacturing sectors. The UK should look to adopt a similar approach.

Deborah Fraser, CBI South West Director, said without an agreement with the EU, UK firms could face tariffs of up to 16.4%, burdening them with extra costs and paperwork.

This will divert company resources from investment planning and spending from for growth to managing and mitigating red tape.

She said: Getting a good Brexit deal would be an immediate boost to confidence in the South West. It will help protect tens of thousands of businesses across the region already under huge pressure from the pandemic, not least in industries like advanced engineering and manufacturing, green technology and digital and cyber technologies.

Getting a deal requires political leadership and compromise from both sides, which is needed urgently in the coming weeks.

This article has been produced for the Annual Business Guide Top 150, sponsored by PKF Francis Clark.The guide profiles the biggest firms in Devon and Cornwall and takes a comprehensive look at the sectors that dominate the regional economy.We examine how they have been affected this year and chart the Covid-19 bounceback.See the full list of Top 150 businesses here and in print in the Western Morning News.

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How will South West manufacturers weather 'perfect storm' of Brexit and Covid-19 uncertainty? - Business Live

BRUSSELS/LONDON (Reuters) - The head of the European Commission said on Wednesday the chances of reaching a trade deal with Britain were fading by the day as the British government pushes ahead with moves that would breach their divorce treaty.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson holds a cabinet meeting at the Foreign Office in London, Britain September 15, 2020. Jonathan Buckmaster/Pool via REUTERS

The British government announced draft legislation last week which it acknowledges would violate its international legal obligations and undercut parts of the divorce deal it signed before Britain formally left the European Union in January.

Brussels wants Prime Minister Boris Johnson to scrap what is known as the Internal Market Bill, saying it could sink talks on future trade arrangements before Britain finally leaves the EUs orbit when a status quo transition period ends in December.

Johnson has refused.

With every day that passes, the chances of a timely agreement do start to fade, said Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, the EU executive.

In a speech to the European Parliament, she said the divorce agreement cannot be unilaterally changed, disregarded or dis-applied.

This is a matter of law, trust and good faith ... Trust is the foundation of any strong partnership, she said.

The EU fears a disorderly Brexit if the terms of the trade relationship are not agreed, and former British prime ministers have said breaking the law is a step too far that undermines the countrys reputation.

Johnson has said the bill was essential to counter absurd threats from Brussels including that London be required to put up trade barriers between Britain and its province of Northern Ireland and that the EU would impose a food blockade. Such steps, he said, would threaten the unity of the United Kingdom.

Asked on Wednesday if the EU was negotiating in good faith, Johnson said: I dont believe they are.

Perhaps they will prove my suspicions wrong, Johnson said.

Johnsons Internal Market Bill has been criticised by senior members of his governing Conservative Party and the previous five prime ministers have also expressed concern at the damage it might do to Britains international standing.

However, he appeared to have averted a rebellion by Conservative lawmakers which might have derailed it altogether after agreeing to a compromise with them on Wednesday.[L8N2GD4RA]

It is agreed that the parliamentary procedure suggested by some colleagues provides a clearer, more explicit democratic mandate for the use of these powers, and also provides more legal certainty, the government and two of the rebel lawmakers said in a joint statement.

It will mean parliament will have to give its approval before ministers can use the powers which override the Brexit divorce deal.

Earlier, Britains Northern Ireland minister Brandon Lewis told parliament he stood by remarks he made last week that the bill would break international law in a very specific and limited way.

However in a sign of continuing unease with the plans, Scotlands top law adviser to the British government, Richard Keen, quit his role, saying he could not reconcile his legal obligations with the governments policy intentions.

His resignation comes after the head of the British governments legal department quit last week over the issue.

EU diplomatic sources told Reuters that if the bill was passed in its current form, Brussels felt it could not deal with London.

Additional reporting by Kate Holton, William James, Andy Bruce, Michael Holden and Alistair Smout, Editing by Timothy Heritage, Kevin Liffey and Alexandra Hudson

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Chances of Brexit deal fading every day, EU Commission chief says - Reuters

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson returns to Downing Street.

Leon Neal | Getty Images News | Getty Images

LONDON Theblow to theU.K. of failing to reach a trade deal with the European Union would be more costly than dealing with the coronavirus, Goldman Sachs economists have warned.

In fact, the investment bank said the fallout of a no-deal outcome was likely to be "two to three times larger" than that of "the worst pandemic witnessed in post-war history."

The U.K. government has over the last weekchallengedprevious commitments with the European Union, increasing the odds that both sides will not manage to put a trade agreement together before the end of the year. This "no-deal" outcome would result in higher costs for exporters on both sides.

Some analysts have suggested that these costs would blend in with the hit to the U.K. economy from the global pandemic, making it difficult to determine what will be the real source of economic pain in the years to come. However, Goldman Sachs economists disagree.

"We are sceptical of the argument that the sheer scale of the economic fallout from Covid-19 will obscure the economic impact from a breakdown in Brexit negotiations," they said in a research note Monday.

The investment bank argued that the industries hit hardest by the coronavirus such as recreational, food and drink, and wholesale businesses are different from the sectors mostly likely to be punished by the U.K.'s departure from the European Union, which include chemicals, textiles and electrical equipment businesses.

I'm afraid that next year (the performance of the U.K. economy) is going to be even worse.

Anatole Kaletsky

founder and co-chairman of Gavekal Research

However, they added that when considered together, "from an aggregate perspective, the present value of the long-run impact of failing to reach an EU-U.K. free trade agreement is likely to be two to three times larger (on reasonable assumptions) than the present value of the cyclical damage wrought by the coronavirus crisis."

The U.K. economy grew by 6.6% in July the third consecutive monthly rise, according to data from the Office for National Statistics released last week. However, the public body warned that the U.K. "has still only recovered just over half of the lost output caused by the coronavirus."

In addition, the unemployment rate increased to 4.1% in the three months to July 0.3 percentage points above the rate seen a year ago, according to data out Tuesday.

"The world's worst performing major currency, stock market and economy have all been located in Britain since Boris Johnson was re-elected last December," Anatole Kaletsky, founder and co-chairman of Gavekal Research, said in a note Monday.

Speaking to CNBC on Tuesday, he added that he was "very worried about the performance of the U.K. economy going forward.

"I'm afraid that next year is going to be even worse because of this combination of Covid, which is still very much out of control, and this additional blow from actually almost anything that comes out of these Brexit negotiations," he said.

The EU and the U.K. have said they remain in close contact and their plans to have another round of trade talks at the end of the month are still on the table.

However, the EU has made it clear that it cannot sign new trade arrangements if the U.K. violates previous already-legislated commitments.

On Monday, U.K. legislators cleared the first legal hurdle in implementing the so-called Internal Market Bill a set of new laws that, if cleared in both chambers of the U.K. parliament, would breach international law. The EU has asked the U.K. to amend the bill as soon as possible and no later than until the end of the month if it fails to do so, the EU will likely challenge the U.K. government in court.

Both sides have given themselves until October to put together an agreement that can then be ratified before the end of the year, but analysts are growing increasing skeptical that this is going to happen.

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A no-deal Brexit would be more costly for the UK than coronavirus, Goldman says - CNBC

A no-deal Brexit could cost up to 5,000 jobs in Irelands fisheries, but its not just access to the UKs coastal waters that the country is hoping to hold on to in any post-Brexit arrangement. Perhaps more important to Ireland is the UKs motorway network.

Every year, more than 150,000 trucks transport over 3 million tonnes of freight to and from Ireland to the rest of the single market across the UK land bridge an arrangement that involves Irish trucks using British motorways to reach the continent. One route involves goods being shipped from Dublin to Holyhead by ferry and then by road to Dover before being shipped to Calais.

Its difficult to overestimate the importance of this land bridge for Ireland. A 2017 study found that 40% of Irelands exports to the EU reached the continent via the UKs roads, with an estimated value of 18.2 billion (16.3 billion). Journey times to the EU market are less than 20 hours by the land bridge, but up to 40 to 60 hours by sea. Thats why its the preferred route for companies moving food, live animals and other high-value goods, such as heavy machinery and transport equipment.

A no-deal outcome could sever Irelands most important route to EU markets. But what might the loss of Irelands land bridge mean for the UK? Our research has found that it could entail substantial benefits for air quality and roads throughout the country.

From January 1 2021, British goods will be treated as third-country freight by the EU, meaning they will be subject to customs and regulatory controls at European ports. These ports arent yet able to differentiate between British and Irish freight, but once they are, a two-speed processing system would ensure Irish trucks are fast tracked through the system and UK trucks subject to regulatory delays. The Irish government is keen to ensure that the land bridge isnt considered a major negotiating point in UK-EU trade negotiations.

But for the UK, there is another dimension to the land bridge that has been completely overlooked. All the benefits that come from it accrue to Ireland and the EU, while all the negatives are borne by British citizens and companies.

The 150,000 truck journeys that Irelands imports and exports add to the UKs road network often cause local congestion. Lorries also cause more damage to road surfaces than most other vehicles, with one study calculating that a six-axle, 44-tonne truck is over 138,000 times more damaging to the foundations of a road than a small, one-tonne car with two axles. These extra costs are covered by the UK taxpayer.

For the UK, the land bridge means that a third country is directly contributing to national air pollution, with all the health consequences that entails. Exposure to nitrogen dioxide pollution can trigger and exacerbate asthma symptoms, and its also associated with heart disease and birth complications. Inhaling fine particulate matter (often called PM2.5, as these particles are smaller than 2.5 micrometres) is linked to a host of medical conditions, including lung cancer.

We calculated the quantities of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and PM2.5 produced from 150,000 heavy goods vehicle journeys from Holyhead to Felixstowe (329 miles, or 529 kilometres) and found that it results in an additional 34 tonnes of NOx and 0.7 tonnes of PM2.5 per year being emitted across Wales and England. The PM2.5 calculation is based on exhaust emissions only though, it excludes particulates shed from brakes and tyres. Total UK road transport NOx emissions in 2018 were 258,000 tonnes.

Read more: Environment Bill: a laudable but disappointing attempt to rewrite the law after Brexit

The Irish lorry fleet is also quite a lot older than the UKs. By 2020, 90% of UK lorries were at Euro VI standard and none were Euro III. In comparison, the latest data for the Irish fleet reveals that almost 20% is Euro III and only 22% Euro VI. This matters, as Euro III engines emit about 30 times more NOx than Euro VI.

Brexit has made visible a source of UK air pollution that is unrelated to the UK economy. The UK-EU trade negotiations should include air pollution and any agreement should include regulations that prevent highly polluting heavy goods vehicles from using the land bridge.

Perhaps one of the strangest outcomes of a no-deal Brexit may be that, for all the potential economic consequences for both Ireland and the UK, Britains air pollution problem might substantially improve.

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Brexit: Ireland's land bridge to the continent boosts air pollution in the UK - The Conversation UK

A controversial former lobbyist was reappointed to advise the British government on trade while continuing to work for undisclosed private clients, prompting concerns over conflict of interest.

Shanker Singham, who resigned from a similar role in 2018 after openDemocracy reported that he was also working for a commercial lobbying firm, was appointed to the Department for International Trades trade and agriculture commission in July.

Singham is reported to be in the running for all or part of a 200m government contract related to post-Brexit checks down the Irish Sea. Now evidence reviewed by openDemocracy and Source Material suggests that, as he returns to the Department for International Trade, he remains active as a lobbyist.

Singhams personal consultancy firm spent $20,000 on Democrat-aligned lobbyists in Washington to advocate for a US-UK free trade deal last year. The lobbyists helped broker a series of meetings in Washington for Singham and former Northern Irish first minister David Trimble, including with Congressman Richard Neal, head of the influential Ways and Means Committee that would greenlight a post-Brexit trade deal.

Neal is one of a number of Democrats who has voiced serious concerns about Boris Johnsons proposed changes to the protocol on the Northern Ireland border. On Wednesday, presidential nominee Joe Biden tweeted that any post-Brexit trade deal would be contingent on respecting the Good Friday Agreement.

Angus MacNeill, chairman of the parliamentary select committee on international trade, said of Singhams lobbying work: If hes been lobbying and there is money involved then all other commission members should know that. It shouldnt take journalists to dig up this information.

These relationships should be known and not hidden, the Scottish National Party MP added.

Singham is listed by the committee as representing Competere Ltd, the company he owns. Competere is not a lobbyist but a trade consultancy, he told SourceMaterial.

Singham said that his trip to Washington was a pro-bono mission paid for out of his own pocket. But David Trimble said he understood the trip to have been paid for by some conservatives, though he was unsure of the exact source of the money.

Dubbed the Brexiteers brain, Singham is a fellow at the Institute for Economic Affairs, a free-market think tank that takes money from undisclosed corporate clients. The charities regulator criticised Singhams previous work at the Legatum Institute for pro-Brexit bias.

In November, Singham and Trimble travelled to Washington for some jet-set diplomacy, aimed to smooth the path to a UK-US trade agreement by selling Boris Johnsons Brexit arrangements to wary US congressmen.

A key part of the DC charm offensive was making the case for the Northern Ireland protocol agreed between Johnson and the European Union which the prime minister himself is now rowing back on.

Singham has been one of the main advocates of the so-called alternative arrangements for the Irish border, a scheme backed by a number of Tory MPs and funded by a private company called Prosperity UK, owned by Brexit donor Paul Marshall.

In a single day in Washington, Singham and Trimble held almost a dozen meetings, mainly with Irish-American politicians on Capitol Hill. Smoothing the way was Transnational Strategy Group, a Washington DC-based lobbying firm that Singhams personal company paid $20,000 specifically to lobby for a US-UK Free Trade Agreement, according to documents filed in the US.

Among the meetings arranged by the US lobbyists - former Obama staffer Joel Rubin and Ari Mittelman, who had previously represented Libyan militias was one with Richard Neal, the Democrat chair of the Ways and Means Committee of the House of Representatives, which would oversee any US-UK trade deal.

Singham and Trimble also met veteran Republican congressman Pete King, who had spoken in favour of the Irish Republican Army during the Troubles in Northern Ireland. After the meeting King tweeted that while he and Trimble didnt always agree in the past, they were on same page now about a UK-US free- trade deal.

More:

Revealed: 'Alternative Irish border' Brexit lobbyist in fresh conflict of interest row - Open Democracy

Ireland is currently dealing with a severe public health crisis from Covid-19, which has substantially reduced social and economic activity. Prior to the onset of the pandemic, the most imminent risk to the strong performance of the Irish economy seemed likely to come from a hard Brexit. This paper looks at sectoral exposure to both the COVID-19 and Brexit shocks to assess if there is a risk that the impact of a hard Brexit on an economy weakened by dealing with COVID-19 could make the previously estimated effects of Brexit worse. Using a range of data sources, we assign an exposure rank to 57 sectors of the economy for each shock, from most severely affected sectors to those that are effectively unaffected. Overall, we find that there is limited overlap in the sectors exposed to the different shocks. We further examine the flow of goods and services between sectors affected by the two shocks to establish the extent of potential supply chain transmission of the shocks. Our main finding is that the sectors exposed to each shock are not particularly closely connected to those affected by the other shock. These results suggest that adding the Brexit shock to that of COVID-19 brings a wider range of sectors exposed to risk but that the impacts are not magnified by interaction effects.

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Examination of the sectoral overlap of COVID-19 and Brexit shocks - Gov.ie