Category Archives: Brexit

Ministers have been advised to consider tariffs on imports of lower-standard food and farm produce from overseas, in order to protect the UKs high standards of food safety and animal welfare.

The recommendation, by an independent commission advising the government, was greeted with dismay by some farmers and food campaigners, who wanted an outright ban and regulations to prevent lower-standard imports in trade deals after Brexit.

George Dunn, the chief executive of the Tenant Farmers Association, said: Seeking to protect environmental and animal welfare considerations by using tariff policy alone will not provide the long-term guarantees we need. Tariffs can be easily renegotiated, reduced or removed altogether, unlike clear, statutory standards.

Kath Dalmeny, the chair of the Future British Standards Coalition, also said tariffs were inferior to an outright ban on lower-standard imports. We have been clear that tariffs are no substitute for clear blanket bans and that tariffs could be easily reduced or phased out over time, thus breaking the governments promise of no compromise on food standards, she said.

The recommendations of the trade and agriculture commission were published on Tuesday, and will be considered by ministers for possible incorporation into guidelines for future trade deals. The commission was set up to reassure farmers and the public after ministers rejected calls for parliament to be allowed to scrutinise trade deals before they are signed, despite widespread fears that UK food and farming standards could be at risk in trade deals.

Dalmeny also warned that the recommendations by the trade and agricultural commission would allow imports without tariffs on products that were judged equivalent to the UK in terms of standards, or aligned with core global standards.

In many cases global standards are lower than the UKs. Big questions remain over who would decide what was equivalent, and how, she said.

However, the governments food tsar, Henry Dimbleby, said the recommendations would protect British consumers. This report far exceeds my expectations and is very ambitious, he said.

It sets clear intent for the UK about what we see as the future global trading system, which should be not just about GDP but about governments working together to protect the environment and animal welfare, and reduce carbon emissions.

He rejected the idea that tariffs alone were not enough to protect the UKs consumers and farmers from lower-standard food produced abroad. Tariffs are effective bans, he said, as importers would be priced out of the market by tariffs.

The guidelines from the trade and agriculture commission call for liberalised trade in food and agriculture with other countries, but say this should be balanced with a commitment to international leadership by the UK on climate, environment, animal welfare and ethical trade.

Tim Smith, the former chief executive of the Food Standards Agency and Tesco group quality director, who chaired the commission, said its recommendations should reassure the public.

We will not see a backsliding on standards. We are recommending very solidly that our standards remain, he said before the publication of the report. We need to balance the need to be open to liberalised trade with the importance of long-established UK standards.

The question of food standards has been one of the most controversial issues raised by Brexit. Many of the countries with which the government wants to do trade deals have much lower food safety and farming standards than the EU, and many products from these countries were previously banned from the UK under EU rules.

The government will be under pressure in trade deal negotiations to allow such imports. That has raised fears among farmers that a flood of lower-standard imports could undercut British produce, while they must maintain high standards to be able to export to the EU. Food campaigners have warned that consumers could be subjected to unsafe or lower-standard products that would promote intensive farming, damage animal welfare and boost diseases such as superbugs that are associated with the overuse of antibiotics in farming.

Sue Davies, the head of consumer protection and food policy at Which?, said the government must not allow any weakening of UK food and farming standards. The government must hold firm to its commitments to uphold food standards and listen to the voices of consumers, she said. They have told us clearly they are not prepared to sacrifice high food standards and do not want a two-tier system where only those who are wealthier can be assured that the food on their table meets the standards that consumers currently expect.

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Use tariffs to protect food safety and animal welfare in post-Brexit deals, ministers told - The Guardian

Britains manufacturers suffered from mounting supply chain disruption in February as Brexit and the third Covid lockdown weighed down growth in factory production, according to a survey.

In a reflection of continuing border disruption since leaving the EU, the latest snapshot from IHS Markit and the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply revealed the third biggest increase in supplier delivery times on records dating back to 1992.

Industrial output rose at the weakest pace in nine consecutive months of growth, as the manufacturing sectors rebound from the pandemic was held back by worsening supply-chain disruption and rising cost pressures.

According to the survey of 600 manufacturing firms, which is closely watched by the government and the Bank of England for early warning signals from the UK economy, business optimism rose to a 77-month high in February amid expectations for a sharp recovery as Covid restrictions are relaxed.

The reading on the IHS Markit/CIPs purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to 55.1 in February, up from 54.1 a month earlier, on a scale where anything above 50 separates economic growth from contraction.

However, analysts said the index was being artificially boosted by Brexit and Covid border disruption. Unlike normal, when longer production lead times would reflect strong economic growth as firms battle to meet demand, pushing up the index, the cause this time around is negative for companies.

About 58% of companies reported longer delivery times from suppliers, while only 2% saw an improvement, as international shipping delays, worldwide demand for raw materials and Brexit-related trade issues weighed on activity.

Rob Dobson, a director at IHS Markit, said: Look past the headline PMI and the survey reveals near stagnant production, widespread shipping and port delays and confusion following the end of the Brexit transition period.

In the two months since leaving the EU on terms his government agreed with Brussels, Boris Johnson has admitted there are teething problems affecting cross-border trade. In acknowledgment, ministers promised 20m of financial support to help small firms prepare for further customs checks still to be put in place.

But rather than early issues that will fade as firms adapt, company bosses say higher costs and delays are an endemic feature of Brexit and stand as a permanently higher cost of doing business with the EU.

James Brougham, a senior economist at Make UK, the manufacturing industry trade body, said over the short term these barriers were limiting the sectors ability to fight back from the Covid recession.

The compound effects of continued Covid-19 related disruption now exacerbated by manufacturers cautious navigation of the new UK-EU trading arrangement has created a scenario in which logistical and supply-side challenges are limiting the rate of economic recovery for the sector, he said.

Separate figures from the Bank of England showed British households paid back 2.4bn of borrowing on credit cards, personal loans and overdrafts in January, in a reflection of weaker consumer spending during the third lockdown.

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Although a smaller net repayment than during the first wave last spring, when more than 7bn was repaid in April 2020, the annual consumer credit growth rate plunged to -8.9% in January, the lowest level since records began in 1994.

The total amount outstanding on credit cards and loans shrank to 199.4bn, falling below 200bn for the first time since April 2017.

The mortgage market remained strong despite the latest lockdown and deadline for the stamp duty holiday at the end of March, with 99,000 new loans approved in January. While down from 102,800 in December, mortgage approvals an indicator of future lending volumes remained well above the pre-pandemic monthly average of 67,900.

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UK factory production slows amid Brexit and Covid disruption - The Guardian

The end of the Brexit transition period on 31 December 2021 marked a period of momentous change in the field of private international law, with the UK departing from long standing regimes covering the allocation of jurisdiction, the enforcement of judgments and governing law.

On jurisdiction, from 1 January 2021 the UK Is no longer bound by the Brussels Recast Regulation and the Lugano Convention. This means that, save in legacy cases, English jurisdiction clauses and English judgments will no longer benefit from near automatic recognition under these longstanding regimes in EU Member States, Switzerland, Iceland and Norway.

Also, on 1 January 2021 the UK re-joined the 2005 Hague Convention on Choice of Court Agreements (the Hague Convention) as an independent sovereign state. Under this international treaty, English exclusive jurisdiction clauses within scope and resulting English judgments will be recognised in other contracting states: currently this includes all EU Member States, Singapore, Mexico and Montenegro.

As a result, we may see some shift in the approach to disputes clauses over the coming months. It is widely considered that only mutually exclusive English jurisdiction clauses fall within the scope of the Hague Convention and so financial parties may consider adapting their asymmetric jurisdiction clauses on new deals to include mutually exclusive English jurisdiction clauses so as to benefit from enforcement under the Hague Convention where a borrower has assets in those EU member states (or other Hague jurisdictions) where enforcement might otherwise be problematic.

The UK Government has applied to re-join the Lugano Convention as an independent sovereign state. This application is pending, with Switzerland, Iceland and Norway indicating their consent. The EUs position however remains unclear and re-accession requires unanimity. If there is positive movement on the UKs pending application in the short term, any market shift away from asymmetric jurisdiction clauses may be less pronounced. Finance parties may be content to rely upon the recognition and enforcement regime under the Lugano Convention (which covers a wider range of jurisdiction clauses than the Hague Convention, as well as other jurisdictional grounds). Pending re-accession, where enforcement is a priority, and the borrower has assets in a non-Hague jurisdiction, finance parties may consider a pure arbitration clause to be a more suitable disputes clause.

On governing law, the position from 1 January 2021 can be described as business as usual; with the UK transposing Rome I and Rome II into UK domestic law, with only minor amendments. These codified regimes on the applicable law for contractual and non contractual obligations will continue to be applied by English courts and English law will continued to be respected as the chosen law in commercial contracts by EU Member State courts on essentially the same basis as previously.

The selection of English law is therefore likely to continue to be a popular choice for commercial parties for this reason (as well as for reasons of legal certainty, commerciality, availability of precedents and flexibility).

Commercial parties will no doubt continue to watch developments in this area closely over coming months.

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Brexit and dispute resolution clauses: the options for finance parties - JD Supra

GUEST BLOG: In this contributed blog post,Anastasia Laska, vice president partner alliances and business development, Revionics, an Aptos company, explains how employing tech that helps them roll with the punches will be key for retailers in 2021 as the current crises leads to upheaval.

Just over a quarter of all food supplied to the UK comes from EU states according to DEFRA so some disruption to business as usual is inevitable. And this comes at a time when Covid-19 has already changed the way grocers operate and the way their customers behave in terms of basket make-up, size and ordering. This has all led to higher costs for the grocers, at the same time as competition from discounters and digital channels grows and shoppers become more price-sensitive than ever.

Deal or no deal, Brexit, even allowing for a business as usual transitional period, makes the chances of retail getting back to normal quickly very unlikely, particularly for those businesses that have not seen the Christmas sales boost they were expecting as lockdowns were eased.

When rising Brexit-driven costs begin to make their way through the supply chain, along with an unsustainable squeeze on margins and profits, how can grocers implement a more strategic approach to pricing that keeps the focus on value and customer loyalty while delivering sustainable results?

There are predictions that Brexit might bring more long-term damage and losses to UK retailers than Covid-19, so how can they prepare to keep pace with these changes, both seen and unforeseen?

Firstly, retailers must be agile in their response to market developments. Grocers in particular need to start monitoring competitive price changes and shopper buying behaviours in real time, making sure they have automated pricing workflows to enable them to adapt strategy and execute price changes with speed, precision, confidence AND without margin leakage. Prices set incorrectly at the beginning of a month, will see revenue and margin erosion as soon as the products hit the shelves and last right through the month.

Secondly, by setting performance based on key value item (KVI) and price elasticity analysis can give retailers insight into the items where price truly matters to shoppers, as opposed to items that can help recover margins. Understanding the respective roles of own-label and branded items in price image also sharpens focus. Market basket analysis can pinpoint item affinities so grocers can craft promotions that increase shopper traffic and drive top and bottom-line results.

Rising costs may create pressure to raise prices at the same time that competitive actions cause a kneejerk, cost-cutting response. Progressive retailers conduct on-demand what-if scenario analysis to understand the impact a potential price change will have on units, margins and profits before implementing any changes.

Finally, retailers have to be willing to adapt and evolve their pricing strategy. The value of more sophisticated, AI and data-driven pricing approaches and workflows is to bring price strategy to life at the shelf. Retailers should continually assess the need to adjust the relative emphasis on revenues vs margins vs competitiveness at the item, category, department, location or banner level.

The demand is out there; it is just a question of knowing how to tap into it. UK shoppers have changed their behaviours dramatically, in terms of how much more they will pay for certain items that bring them cheer during lockdowns. At the same time, worried about their jobs and finances, they will search doggedly the find the very best deals for staple items. The result is that they may change these behaviours short-term or possibly even permanently.

Being able to respond to these changes and further impacts after Brexit is the key to all retailers KPIs on revenue, margin, market share and brand equity with their customers.

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Taking back control in the face of Covid-19 and Brexit - ComputerWeekly.com

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain said on Friday it would offer a fast-track visa scheme for jobs at high-growth companies after a government-backed review warned that financial technology firms will struggle with Brexit and tougher competition for global talent.

FILE PHOTO: Commuters walk through Canary Wharf, as the number of coronavirus cases grow around the world, in London, Britain March 16, 2020. REUTERS/Dylan Martinez

Finance minister Rishi Sunak said that now Britain has left the European Union, it wants to make sure its immigration system helps businesses attract the best hires.

This new fast-track scale-up stream will make it easier for fintech firms to recruit innovators and job creators, who will help them grow, Sunak said in a statement.

Over 40% of fintech staff in Britain come from overseas, and the new visa scheme, open to migrants with job offers at high-growth firms that are scaling up, will start in March 2022.

Brexit cut fintechs access to the EU single market and made it far harder to employ staff from the bloc, leaving Britain less attractive for the industry.

The review published on Friday and headed by Ron Kalifa, former CEO of payments fintech Worldpay, set out a strategy and delivery model that also includes a new 1 billion pound ($1.39 billion) start-up fund.

Its about underpinning financial services and our place in the world, and bringing innovation into mainstream banking, Kalifa told Reuters.

Britain has a 10% share of the global fintech market, generating 11 billion pounds ($15.6 billion) in revenue.

The review said Brexit, heavy investment in fintech by Australia, Canada and Singapore, and the need to be nimbler as COVID-19 accelerates digitalisation of finance, all mean the sectors future in Britain is not assured.

It also recommends more flexible listing rules for fintechs to catch up with New York.

We recognise the need to make the UK attractive a more attractive location for IPOs, said Britains financial services minister John Glen, adding that a separate review on listings rules would be published shortly.

Those findings, along with Rons report today, should provide an excellent evidence base for further reform.

Britain pioneered sandboxes to allow fintechs to test products on real consumers under supervision, and the review says regulators should move to the next stage and set up scale-boxes to help fintechs navigate red tape to grow.

Its a question of knowing who to call when theres a problem, said Kay Swinburne, vice chair of financial services at consultants KPMG and a contributor to the review.

A UK fintech wanting to serve EU clients would have to open a hub in the bloc, an expensive undertaking for a start-up.

Leaving the EU and access to the single market going away is a big deal, so the UK has to do something significant to make fintechs stay here, Swinburne said.

The review seeks to join the dots on fintech policy across government departments and regulators, and marshal private sector efforts under a new Centre for Finance, Innovation and Technology (CFIT).

There is no framework but bits of individual policies, and nowhere does it come together, said Rachel Kent, a lawyer at Hogan Lovells and contributor to the review.

($1 = 0.7064 pounds)

Reporting by Huw Jones; editing by Jane Merriman and John Stonestreet

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Britain to offer fast-track visas to bolster fintechs after Brexit - Reuters

We are starting to see British businesses crumble as a result of Brexit. Now I want an apology from Piers Morgan, from Nick Ferrari, from Julia Hartley-Brewer, from Andrew Pierce and from every journalist and politician who called people Remoaners for questioning Brexit over the past four years.

For it was they who made a joke out of the suffering people are now experiencing. Boris Johnson and Grant Shapps even shared a giggle when asked about the deal in December.

I dont want them to apologise to me. Brexit was never going to hurt me. During the four years I campaigned to stop it, I was never speaking for myself. I was speaking for people who did not have a platform like mine. The fisheries workers who drove their lorries to Westminster because Brexit red tape was crippling their exports; the small businesses which simply cannot afford the extra bureaucracy and tariffs; the people in Northern Ireland seeing scarily familiar tensions bubble to the surface.

These people did not have hundreds of thousands of social media followers. They didnt have radio stations, TV panel shows, or columns in national newspapers. Their views could only be amplified through other peoples voices.

And how did Brexiteer journalists and politicians respond to those voices? They called us Remoaners, Remainiacs and sore losers. They spent four years using their platforms to ridicule and degrade us as we desperately advocated against the suffering that ordinary people are starting to experience right now. When Morgan and Hartley-Brewer were making fun of me, they were really making fun of them.

Im talking about Tim Heard, who had been catching shellfish for 50 years but whose income has completely stopped since January. On Saturday, I used my voice on his behalf when speaking to former Brexit Party MEP Alex Phillips on Talk Radio. I relayed Heards words: There are people here that have turned to drink because of the strength of this. Not only did the presenter try to make a joke about it, but Phillips was grinning from ear to ear. So even with the damage now ruining peoples lives, the politicians who told us Brexit would save the fishing industry still think its all a game.

The Road Haulage Association noted a 68 per cent drop in exports to the EU since January, and its mainly small businesses struggling with the extra costs. So Id love it if Piers Morgan would apologise to Danny Hodgson for telling me all Remoaners are demented in 2019. Danny founded Rivet & Hide, a mens retailer, and his sales have almost halved since January.

Or maybe Julia Hartley-Brewer could apologise to Emily Blendell (Bluebella, lingerie company) or Richard Staite (Shiner, sporting goods). Hartley-Brewer called Labour MEP Tulip Siddiq an insane Remoaner for delaying her C-section to attend a Brexit vote. Siddiq did so to make sure Richard and Emily wouldnt have to move part of their business across the Channel.

As for Northern Ireland, former Labour MP Kate Hoey accused Labour peer Peter Hain of scaremongering for suggesting Brexit would threaten peace. Since January, she has been warning about sectarian violence as a result of Brexit. It would be nice if she could apologise to the people of Northern Ireland.

These politicians and journalists watched millions scream in panic for four years, terrified about the damage were only now starting to see. But they went out of their way to insult them on a daily basis.

These big Brexiteers will never show regret, but is a little compassion too much to ask for? They know the majority voted for parties committed to avoiding this in 2019and they can see businesses and lives being ruined. But I havent heard a single sorry so Im demanding one now.

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Its time for an apology from those who dismissed us as Remoaners - The Independent

Luke Selvey manoeuvred the beam trawler Emilia Jayne into Brixham harbour with a hold packed with fish after three and a half days at sea. He gave a toothy grin. Weve got cuttlefish, Dover sole, brill, turbot, monks ... all sorts, the skipper said. The fishing is the best weve seen for years.

But Selvey stopped smiling when he considered how much he and his crew would make out of their trip. The problem weve got is that the price of the fish is terrible. Its making things really, really difficult for us. Were having to work much harder to try to make a buck.

The Covid crisis is partly to blame, but fishers like Selvey believe a much more fundamental factor is the Brexit deal. Almost three-quarters of the fish landed at this historic Devon port is exported to mainland Europe and extra bureaucracy and confusion over the new system has led to consignments being delayed or rejected. Buyers in France, Spain and Italy have refused to pay top whack for fish that is not as fresh as they would like, and the price of the catch landed in Brixham has dropped.

Selvey and his crew receive a share of the profit their fish fetches at market. If the prices of fish plunges, their wages follow. It means were going out in all conditions for maybe half the wages we we were making last year, he said.

They call going out to sea in harsh conditions pushing weather. Its dangerous for us in the fishing community to have to push more weather, said Selvey. The hazards of fishing are keenly felt here at the moment. Close to where Selvey spoke, there is a makeshift shrine to a local fisher, Adam Harper, 26, one of two men who died when the boat the Joanna C sank 3 miles (5km) out to sea this winter.

But we have families to look after, mortgages to pay, boats to be paid for, said Selvey. I shouldnt be out there in southerly gales but my family needs to be fed, watered and clothed. The fleet as a whole has caught more fish this year but the money is probably down by a third. Its depressing.

On the harbourside, the boats owner, Mike Sharp, went through the figures. This boat made 16,000 last week. For the amount of fish it had caught it should have been 25,000 or 26,000, he said.

The main catch at this time of year is cuttlefish, the vast majority of which ends up in mainland Europe. Usually it would fetch about 4.50 a kg but this year the price has been as low as 1.80. Dover sole has dropped from about 15 to 7, and plaice from 3 to 1.10. All in all, Sharp believes his business is down a third from where he was this time last year.

Everyone is paddling around trying to make money, he said. This is the time of year you make your money. Its always a bit leaner in April and May when the fish are breeding. Now is when we need to make money to survive. Exporting is a nightmare. The government has called it teething problems but its not that. Its disheartening to be working the same hours or more, catching the same fish and getting a third of the return.

In his office overlooking the harbour, a fish merchant, Ian Perkes, was trying to arrange deliveries to customers on mainland Europe. Its getting horrendous, he said.

His sales for January 2020 totalled 375,000. This January they were down to 74,000. Ive built this business up over 44 years. But we wonder now how long we can go on before pulling the plug.

Perkes sent off his first consignment of fish five different species worth a total of 5,000 with a degree of optimism. An official noticed that the commodity code for the skate wings did not seem right, though Perkes staff had used the one they were given by the UK authorities. The whole consignment was brought back. We froze some, sold some, but it was a disaster, most was lost.

Perkes reeled off other examples of consignments being rejected or delayed. He heard that one trucker had to relabel thousands of boxes of frozen fish because they were marked as being from the UK rather than Great Britain. Before Brexit a consignment required perhaps three documents; now it is around 40.

Its going to get worse after the lockdown. At the moment the routes to France are empty. When every man and his caravan is back on the road its going to be even worse.

The government said it was listening to the fishing industry. A spokesperson said: We recognise the issues businesses involved in the export of highly perishable fresh and live seafood are facing, and as such are working closely with the fishing industry and authorities in EU member states to ensure that goods can continue to flow smoothly to market.

We recently announced that the 23m fisheries support fund is being expanded to offer support to a wider range of businesses. We will be offering funding to help fishermen meet their fixed costs as businesses adjust to the new arrangements.

The government said it was holding weekly meetings with industry groups and working with Dutch, French and Irish officials to resolve issues with documentation.

But Perkes said all this would never be able to make up for the damage to his business. His customers were not going to put up with fish taking longer to reach them and would look for different ways to make sure they had a fresh product.

Perkes had been keen on Brexit, but now said: Boris Johnson came here and said we were going to get all our fish back and have free trade. Thats turned out to be nonsense.

Fishing communities are nothing if not practical and pragmatic. Sean Irvine, the owner of two Brixham boats, said his business was down by a third. He voted against Brexit but said he accepted the result and the industry now needed to find ways of improving the deal.

Irvine said he believed that if the UK government accepted more regulations from the EU which he argued the fishing industry followed anyway a softer border between the UK and mainland Europe for perishable goods could be possible, perhaps more like the system Northern Ireland had.

What weve got is a hard Brexit at the moment, no matter what anyone says. We need to look again at how perishable goods are moved. We should find a more common-sense way to keep fish, sheep, cows moving. If we had that, boom, wed be off again.

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'I shouldn't be out there in gales': Brixham fishers take Brexit hit - The Guardian

Just two months into Brexit, the EU-UK relationship is already facing a crossroads.Ahead lies either a relationship of perpetual tension, or a new and fruitful era of cooperation and friendship.

Since day one of Brexit the new era has been beset by problems:theNorthern Ireland Protocol, the ban on some UK shellfish, the row over the diplomatic status of the EU ambassador in London (and vice versa), the revelation that citizens from Bulgaria, Estonia, Lithuania, Romania and Slovenia would not be eligible for reduced fees when seeking a UK work visa.

Some of these issues could be attributed to the teething troubles befitting a relationship that was turned on its head, literally overnight.

Senior EU figures fear, however, that the Conservative government of Boris Johnson may be tempted to keep the kettle strategically on the boil, preferring the domestic electoral gains spun out of antagonism rather an equitable relationship.

There are plenty of icebergs on the horizon:theNorthern Ireland Assembly elections in May of next year, the prospect of a Scottish independence vote, the question of equivalence for the City of London and financial services.

Some within the UK government could see rolling conflict with the EU as a source of political adrenalin keeping the base, and pro-Tory newspapers, engaged.

As Guardian columnist Rafael Behr memorably put it this week: "For the true believers, a good Brexit is one that keeps the grievance alive; that makes foreigners the scapegoat for bad government; that continues to indulge the twin national myths of victimhood and heroic defiance."

London will argue that this is now a competitive relationship and its posture will be calibrated accordingly.Certainly, the appointment of David Frost to steer the relationship - just two days after Michael Gove was given the job - has been seen in that light.

"Initially people were a bit surprised," says one EU diplomat. "Gove had been announced as the interim co-chair of the Joint Partnership Council [the EU UK forum for managing the future relationship], and two days later he wasn't. So, people were a bit taken aback."

For now, officials are keeping an open mind. Frost took a confrontational approach during the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) negotiations, sanctifying British sovereignty over all else.

He has tended topatronisethe EU project in public, telling a House of Lords Committee in January: "The EU is still adjusting to the existence of a genuinely independent actor in theirneighbourhood."

On the other hand, as a cabinet minister with a civil service at his command, and a direct line to Boris Johnson, Frost will be in a good position to defend, and not denigrate, the treaty he negotiated.

"He signed this deal, both of them initiated it, so he knows it very well," says a senior EU source. "He knows how difficult it was, he presented it to the Prime Minister, to the leaders in the UK Parliament. So,I think he should be fighting for this deal to be properly implemented."

Frost is also replacing Gove as co-chair of the Joint Committee, set up to implement the 2019 Withdrawal Agreement, meaning he will be drivingPrime MinisterJohnson's policy on the Northern Ireland Protocol.

His attitude to a bilateral veterinary agreement as a way to alleviate Irish Sea barriers to GB food imports will be instructive. As a champion of UK sovereignty, he is unlikely to agree to anything that constrains Britains options when negotiating free trade agreements, simply to sweeten the Protocol.

Gove and Maro efovi had developed a good working relationship on the Joint Committee. How will the chemistry between Frost and efovi be?

Both men worked together on the EUs seven-year budget during the UK presidency of the EU under Tony Blair in 2005.Frost was a UK diplomat in Brussels and efovi was Slovakias ambassador to the EU.

But those were very different times.Frost subsequently embarked on hiseurosceptictrajectory, while efovi became a two-time European Commissioner.

If Frost believes that a characteristically confrontational approach is the way forward on the Northern Ireland Protocol issue, he will not be making life easy for his new opposite number.

Member states and the European Commission take an increasingly jaundiced view of the UKs position on the Protocol, believing that London deliberatelyinstrumentalisedthe Commissions ill-advised move to invoke Article 16 over vaccine exports from the EU, and some suspect a pattern.

"When it comes down to it, they will invoke some crisis," says one EU source. "They will put us under pressure as they did with the Internal Market Bill, or there will be something else. So,youll end up with rolling problems."

Within the European Commission there is growing resistance to more flexibility on the Protocol, not for ideological reasons but because, officials say, the internal market just does not function if it starts to resemble "Swiss cheese".

Officials in some parts of the Commission are said to have been deeply dismayed that efovi conceded to the UKs demand for no physical EU office in Belfast.Distrust has deepened over the UKs inability to implement the flexibilities and facilitations the Commission and member states did agree to in December.

"Everyone is saying, OK, hold it right here," says one source."As long as they are not even doing what they have committed to do we cannot dream of any more flexibility. We have already gone to the edge."

So,efovi is under pressure from all sides.

The flexibilities London is demanding of the EU on the Protocol relate to food safety and animal and plant health.UK officials insist they cannot see how importing Lincolnshire sausages to Northern Ireland, for example, can damage the internal market.

But food safety scandals haunt European politicians.Trading food across EU borders can only happen if it is safe, and member states all sign up to the same rules to keep it safe. The UK is no longer bound by those rules, yet still wants to send the same food into Northern Ireland, which is effectively part of the single market.

France and Germany are said to be taking a strong line on this. Other member states accept that there will have to be pragmatic solutions, but only if the UK abides by what it committed to in December.

"If the UK fully implements theProtocolwe are ready to examine technical solutions," says one diplomat. "But it is not possible to take risk for our internal market, in particular for the most sensitive products, which include food stuff and all the products that require [sanitary and phytosanitary] controls."

But there is no disentangling such arcane controls from the doggedly tribal politics of Northern Ireland.

The DUP has turned fully hostile towards the Protocol, joining other Unionist parties and some UK politicians in a legal bid to overturn it on the basis that it is contrary to the Act of Union (1800) and the Good Friday Agreement.

Michael Gove calmed speculation that the UK itself might trigger Article 16, or at least introduce legislation that might undermine the Protocol.But London has also aligned itself to the DUPs view that the EU is tending only to the north-south part of the Good Friday Agreement, and not the east-west part.

At its worst, according to London, the EU will end upprioritisingtechnical concerns over the matters of grave, constitutional sensitivity.

"While it's understandable the EU wants to protect the single market, theres a danger you start to focus solely on North-South, and forget about the other aspects of the Good Friday Agreement," says a UKsource.

"Taking the time to understand the needs of both communities in Northern Ireland, and the East-West dimension of the peace process, would help in finding pragmatic solutions to the issues were facing."

During the first full meeting of the Joint Committee on Wednesday night, Arlene Foster made what was described as a "powerful" intervention, accusing the EU of only caring about the north-south dimension, and insisting that the checks and controls carried out so far by EU and Northern Ireland veterinary officials at Belfast and Larne ports had shown that nothing at risk had got through to the single market.

In other words, the DUP now believesthatif there is no genuine risk to the single market, then the EU iswilfullyneglecting unionist sensitivities.

London therefore believes that the multiple apologies by the European Commission over the Article 16 affair still don't go far enough.

"The EU demonstrating that it understands the complexities of the different communities would be something," says a UK source. "While they might not get the DUP to suddenly applaud the Protocol, they might feel like they are at least being understood."

However, the EU does not share Fosters belief that things are fine at the ports. In his letter to Michael Gove on10February, Maro efovi complained that there were very few physical and identity checks, and that "all non-compliant consignments are accepted, even if destined for Ireland".

One Commission source says: "There is real anxiety about this. What happens if we get some unsafe product somewhere and it is traced to Northern Ireland, and we didn't do our job? Its not good for anyone: not for Northern Ireland, not for Ireland, not for the UK."

So,these are very difficult discussions.

Both sides are attempting to broaden the scope of the process, and that appears to be helping. efovi and Gove held virtual meetings with Northern Ireland business groups and the Ulster Farmers Union, as well as the Brexit Stakeholders Forum in Dublin.

"I don't say this lightly," says Aodhn Connolly, chief executive of the Northern Ireland Retail Consortium who attended the gathering, "but it was one of the first meetings with the EU and UK that I felt we were listened to and understood".

More meetings will follow.

"We have to continue to gather business leaders from the different sectors, the ports, the operators, people working in the field of agriculture, the supermarkets - just to listen to them,"efovi told RTNews on Thursday.

For the moment the focus is on supermarkets: London is looking for a holistic solution whereby supermarkets and the retail sector in general - with financial support - would upgrade their own product surveillance systems to such a degree that they might obviate the need for EU customs and food safety formalities, including export health certificates.

The Northern Ireland Retail Consortium says an "auditable and certifiable" supply chain is what is required.There would be guarantees at the point of production (that goods are made to single market requirements), that customs regulations are adhered to, and that the receivers are "dead end hosts".

In other words, the system would be able to show that the goods will not be going anywhere else once they arrive at the destination supermarket.

"You have a warehousing place in GB," says Connolly, "the goods are sent on the ferry, they go to a distributioncentre, and theyre divided up and go to lots of different stores".

"We can trace how it came, but to do that we will need to prove that it is what it says it is."

So, the EU would need to agree all of this, and also to agree that the customs and SPS burdens are lightened so that such a system can actually work.

"We're not getting into a rolling period of extensions every six months or so"

Connolly says that in the beginning there could be more frequent and intelligence-led audits, with those audits happening initially, perhaps, twice a month, then quarterly, then six-monthly, then annually, and so on.

Such a system would mean a mixed load of food products moving across the Irish Sea, with perhaps 1,500 items in one container, would not need multiple export health certificates.

"Its trying to find a way of providing the reassurance required [by the Commission] but in a way that doesn't mean needing a cert that has a thousand different things that need to be signed off on," says one source familiar with discussions.

How is this idea being received in Brussels?

The first problem is that such a model was pushed by London last year, and in the end the EU was unconvinced.Instead, both sides agreed to a three-month grace period for SPS and customs formalities, during which the UK promised to remain aligned to EU food safety rules.

Following the Article 16 affair, Gove wrote to efovi demanding that the three-month grace period - and a second six-month period suspending the ban on sausages and other non-frozen meats - be extended until at least1January, 2023.

London is now linking an extension to the grace periods to doing the groundwork for thesupermarketsidea.In other words, give us until - say - the end of the year to have this new system in place.

EU officials have reservations, but are prepared to explore it on two conditions. One, that the UK implements what was agreed in December, and secondly, that London sets out clearly how the system would work.

"We can't rule [extensions] out, and we would not like to exclude anything a priori," says one EU source. "But this is very much conditional on being given some reassurances as to the use of the existing grace periods and flexibilities."

On Thursday, efovi told RTNews: "We need a very clear timetable [for the supermarkets proposal].What are the concrete steps? What are the milestones?"

However, if this is about a definitive fix, then it will attract interest. "If there were to be a further extension of grace periods it would have to be a bridge to the permanent settled state," says one EU diplomat. "We're not getting into a rolling period of extensions every six months or so.You get one extension and it's to a permanent state, and we have to agree that you will now move to that permanent state."

But there remains a lack of trust. Why should the EU extend the grace periods, if the UK has not lived up to its side of the December bargain? A bargain which, according to EU officials, would make the Protocol more palatable?

Brussels is concerned that, despite Arlene Fosters protestations to the contrary, checks and controls are not being done properly, that Border Control Posts are still not fully completed, that the EU still does not have real time access to the UKs customs IT system, that meat products are not being properly labelled, and that London has yet to produce simplified versions of the EUs export health certificates, all of which, officials say, the UK signed up to in December.

Furthermore, the grace period for export health certificates was granted on the basis that the UK would provide a "restricted" list of large suppliers of food to Northern supermarkets who could be trusted to ensure that food was safe and traceable.

Officials say the UK initially sent - without consulting Brussels - a list of nearly 2,000 suppliers.A reduced list has been promised, but still not received.

UK officials strongly contested these complaints at theSpecialisedCommittee meeting on Tuesday.British sources say they are making bestendeavoursto comply with Decembers agreement, and that - given time - they can produce an audit and traceability model that will satisfy the European Commission and member states.

However, Maro efovi has to convince increasinglyscepticalparts of the European Commission, as well as national capitals, that creativity and flexibility are worth it.

For that he will need London to produce a clear plan on supermarkets, with milestones andverifiables. Sources close to the Commission vice-president say without these he will not have the "political space" to win the argument with member states.

Officials speak of a potential "handshake" moment, involving Boris Johnson and EU leaders

If that political space is there, senior figures say, the Protocol issues could be subsumed into a grand reset of EU UK relations at the end of April, with a freshly negotiated package that could - in one fell swoop - resolve the other outstanding issues (the embassies issue,etc).

On24March, the European Parliament will formally ratify the TCA, paving the way for member states to formally adopt the treaty sometime inmid-April (the TCA has only provisionally been applied since1January).

Officials speak of a potential "handshake" moment, involving Boris Johnson and EU leaders, that might inaugurate a new, less fractious relationship.

There is self-interest in this, beyond simply tying up loose ends and reducing tensions around the Northern Ireland Protocol.The TCA provides for 19 sub-committees of EU and UK officials to keep it operating, a massive bureaucracy that will draw on the resources of every part of the European Commission.

Its understood the idea has been tentatively shared with London, which has been non-committal so far.David Frost would have to both recommend to Boris Johnson, and then facilitate, any such "happy" set piece, not something that is readily imagined.

"The question is, do they want to do this or dont they?" asks one EU source. "Do they want to maintain this friction for some other political purposes?"

Some officials entertain dark fears that maintaining friction is what the UK would prefer.They even worry that by keeping the Protocol in a state of perpetual turmoil, the UK could end up driving a wedge between Ireland and the so-called "coastal" EU member states (France, the Netherlands, Belgium) which take in Irish exports.

If those countries cannot depend on the checks and controls at Northern Irish ports, might they suggest imposing their own controls on food products coming in from the island of Ireland?

Brexit has a way of keeping such mood swings alive.

See original here:

Post-Brexit crossroads: Decision time for the EU and UK - RTE.ie

OurMP Richard Drax has been a keen advocate of Brexit.

So far the news stories are telling us that the deal the UK has agreed does not cover services (70% of our economy) or the arts (one of our strengths).

Bureaucracy was supposed to be less but seems much worse.

And the requirements for selling UK fish to Europe or mail order sales to Europe or taking horses to race in Europe seem not to have been properly thought out.

UK language students are having to pay for expensive visas and prove an adequate income for their year studying abroad.

We hear almost nothing about the positive side of Brexit - new markets, simpler regulations, less bureaucracy.

The UK vaccination success is sometimes cited but it seems to be more about the vaccine task force than about a set of different regulations.

Richard Drax writes a regular column for your paper. Could he be asked please to write a piece giving some positive examples of how leaving the EU has helped our economy, as a counterweight to the bad news stories?

Or is the news universally bad?

STEPHEN BENDLE

Beech Road Weymouth

See the rest here:

'What are the benefits of Brexit?' - Dorset Echo

With 2021 set to mark the end of Trump, Brexit and perhaps even Covid-19, investor uncertainty will likely dissipate as the year continues according to Liontrust's head of multi asset, John Husselbee.

Talking to Investment Week as part of the World Market Review, Husselbee and senior investment manager in the multi-asset team, Nathan Sweeney, believe that this means investors can finally, to some extent, see what lies ahead for the economy.

"This year is probably the beginning of the end of Trump, Brexit, and perhaps now with the vaccine in place, Covid-19 too. What this does is remove a lot of uncertainty for the market. [and] you can start to see where the road lies ahead. Investors are focusing again on the [investment] fundamentals; less of what might' happen and more on what should' happen from here."

To hear the full interview, including their views on the inflation outlook in 2021, click below.

Read the original here:

Partner Insight: 'This is the beginning of the end of Trump, Brexit and Covid-19' - Investment Week