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Brexit is killing the hospitality industry, with the number of venue closures rising sixfold in just a year, stark new data obtained exclusively by The Independent shows.

The net closure of almost 4,600 pubs, clubs, hotels and restaurants in the year to 31 March 2023 the 12 months that followed the ending of Covid restrictions lays bare the devastating impact of staff shortages caused by Brexit as well as the cost of living crisis. The figure compares to just 678 closures in the year to March 2022 and amounts to an average of 12.6 closures a day, with independent family-run businesses taking the biggest hit.

Britain now has 13,793 fewer pubs, bars, hotels, restaurants, nightclubs and other licensed premises than it had three years ago. This represents a 12 per cent contraction of the UK hospitality sector, and is more than twice the 6,400 net closures recorded in the three-year period before Britains withdrawal from the EU on 31 January 2020 and the onset of the Covid pandemic a few weeks later.

More than 30 per cent of nightclubs have gone to the wall half of them in the past 12 months while one in 12 restaurants, along with 5 per cent of sports and social clubs, ceased trading in the same period.

Many owners have cited persistent staff shortages since leaving the EU as the main reason they had to close. There are currently 142,000 unfilled jobs in the accommodation and food services sector, according to the Office for National Statistics. This represents a 6.5 per cent job vacancy rate, which is almost 50 per cent above pre-Brexit levels, and is the highest rate across all of the UKs business sectors.

Chef-restaurateur Mark Hix announced with heavy heart last year that he was closing his Dorset pub, the Fox Inn, because of staff shortages. Hix said that despite the end of Covid, the challenges simply continue, with rising costs and a difficulty to recruit like I have never known in my whole career.

Weymouth fish and chip shop Fish n Fritz, shut last month, also citing a lack of staff. Owner Paul Hay said the closure was not due to cost hikes or lack of business, but rather that we cant find staff to keep it open.

Michelin Guide-listed gastro-pub The Muddy Duck in Oxfordshire has ceased trading because it was unable to replace a departing chef team despite trying for three months. And Fenn, one of Fulhams top-rated restaurants, is to shut this weekend due to ongoing staff shortages that make keeping the restaurant open untenable.

Lord Heseltine, the former deputy prime minister who campaigned for the UK to remain in the EU, said: This is happening throughout the economy ... Brexit is a disaster, and increasingly people are saying so. Quite obviously we benefit immensely from access to the qualified European labour pool, and that has been denied to us, with these consequences.

The quicker Britain wakes up to the interdependence of this country with Europe and finds a way of accessing the single market again, the better our economy will be.

Economists say staff shortages are mostly due to post-Brexit immigration policies, which stopped free movement of labour from the EU, making it difficult to bring in lower-paid workers.

Brexit has led to less trade and lower growth, with the UK economy 5.5 per cent poorer than it would have been if Britain had stayed in the EU, according to a study by the Centre for European Reform. This amounts to 40bn in lost tax revenues. The Office for Budget Responsibility said that trade volumes are 7 per cent lower than if we had remained in the EU.

Mark Hix announced with heavy heart last year that he was closing the Fox Inn because of staff shortages

(Photo by Mark Thomas/REX)

Jonathan Portes, a professor of economics and public policy at Kings College London, and a senior fellow at think tank UK in a Changing Europe, told The Independent that lower-paid sectors have been the big losers in the post-Brexit immigration arrangements.

He said: The government would never openly admit it, but the consequence of their stated aim to move to a high-wage, high-skill economy and shrink the low-wage economy is that a significant number of low-wage employers, like hospitality companies, will go bust, as they simply do not have the wiggle room to adjust to paying higher wages.

Ministers will never say that some pubs and hospitality companies will go to the wall as a result of their immigration policies, but that is exactly what their policies are designed to achieve.

Jonathan Thomas, a senior fellow at the Social Market Foundation think tank, said: It was totally envisaged that the end of EU freedom of movement would cause job vacancies in sectors reliant on low-wage EU workers. It seems to be the governments view that hospitality, which grew substantially pre-Brexit, will be collateral damage that it will contract and be a smaller sector than it was.

The new figures on closures, compiled by consultancies CGA by NIQ and AlixPartners, reveal that poorer cities such as Aberdeen and Birmingham have suffered more, losing 19 and 17 per cent respectively of their city centre licensed premises in the past three years, compared to more affluent cities such as Bristol, which lost just 1.5 per cent. The picture in London is more patchy, but overall the city has endured a net decline of 15 per cent.

The mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, said: Our world-leading hospitality industry is a key driver of Londons and the UKs economy, but many pubs, restaurants and other venues have been hit extremely hard by the impact of Brexit, with changes to immigration rules making it harder to recruit workers.

With the ongoing cost of living crisis, this vital sector is facing an unprecedented and potentially catastrophic set of challenges that need to be addressed by ministers now.

Thousands of pubs and resturants have closed in the past year

(PA Wire)

Tony Wilson, director of the Institute for Employment Studies, said: We are one of the only major economies in the developed world with less people employed now than before the pandemic began. It is clear that Brexit has held back growth, but it has also made inequality worse, with parts of the country more impacted by staff shortages and closures than others.

The government has used the shortage occupation list to create exceptions and make it easier to recruit low-wage workers, but while this has been used to help out the construction and social care sectors, it has not been extended to hospitality.

Trade bodies sayimmigration reformsare critical.UKHospitality chief executive Kate Nicholls said: These results [referring to the CGA data] are stark. We need to see significant support from government in the form of urgent action on the labour market and energy. Staff shortages have plagued the sector for years, and with vacancies 48 per cent higher than pre-pandemic levels, the government must take action to change the immigration system.

Labour MP Dame Angela Eagle, the former shadow business secretary, said we need to look beyond quick fixes to the immigration system. What seems to be happening is that most of our economic growth is because of increased migration, yet at the same time, the government grandly announce they want to reduce it.There is an incoherence about the government approach, which creates uncertainty for businesses as they plan ahead.

Karl Chessell, the director of CGA by NIQ, said that without sustained help to tide the sector through the current crisis, many more closures are likely over the rest of 2023. Graeme Smith, managing director of AlixPartners, added that their joint study revealed that, on current trends, the total number of licensed venues which currently stands at 101,315, employing over 2.2 million people was set to fall below 100,000 this year for the first time in decades.

Many business were already struggling because of Covid

(PA Wire)

Seventy per cent of employers think that restricted access to labour is a threat to their competitiveness, and will be in five years time, according to a poll published in a CBI report last year. Nearly half of the businesses said they wanted the government to grant temporary emergency visas for roles in obvious shortage.

And research carried out by think tanks the Centre for European Reform and UK in a Changing Europe suggests that Brexit has led to a shortfall of 330,000 people in the UK labour force, mostly in the low-skilled economy, compared to how things would have been if we had stayed in the EU.

Luke Wasserman, the co-owner of Fenn, which opened in 2018 and got a reboot off the back of Covid, said staffing has been an ongoing issue.

He said: Prior to Brexit, I believe things were very different. We had 10 good candidates per job before we left the EU; now we are lucky if anyone turns up. Its a constant battle, and especially upsetting because people have put in 60-hour weeks and we have built such a revered reputation. But the truth is that, while Covid was big, Brexit has been massive. You look at all the closures going on countrywide, and you see, yeah, this is definitely an issue.

A government spokesperson said: Hospitality plays a huge role in local economies and communities. We have been working hard to fill vacancies in the sector through our Hospitality Sector Council and our Plan for Jobs and are glad to see vacancies falling 16 per cent in the last year. During the pandemic, much of our 400bn of business support was aimed at hospitality, retail and leisure, and we have provided further support through the 18bn energy bill relief scheme and the energy bills discount scheme for UK businesses, which will run for a further 12 months.

Additional reporting by Archie Mitchell

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Revealed: The great Brexit pubs and clubs shutdown - The Independent

The London ambassadors from European Union (EU) member states are decamping this weekend to the south coast of England to think through the EUs post-Brexit relationship with the United Kingdom. The meeting is a welcome sign of warming relations but can only be the start. As ambassadors swap their oxfords for Wellingtons, they must consider bold approaches to rebuild the EU-UK relationship.

Februarys Windsor Framework breakthrough to reform customs arrangements for Northern Ireland has created an opening to put the EU-UK relationship on a much-improved footing. With fresh seriousness from Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and a willingness from EU negotiators to agree to significant concessions, rhetorical mudpies slung across the Channel were replaced by beaming photo ops and tea with the king when European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited London to finalize the framework and mark a new chapter in UK-EU relations.

The agreement has already led to progress in the relationship. In March, London and Brussels restarted talks on the United Kingdoms reentry into the Horizon Europe program, which dishes out billions for research and innovation projects (although difficulties in negotiations remain).

Even before the Windsor Framework was finalized, there were hints of what a productive relationship could look like. The EU granted the United Kingdom access to the Permanent Structured Cooperation project on military mobility in November, and Britain was represented at the first meeting of the still ambiguously defined European Political Community (EPC) in October. (The United Kingdoms refreshed Integrated Review of national security and international policy in March also endorsed the EPC and pledged that the country will host an EPC meeting next year.) The United Kingdom also strengthened ties to EU members such as Poland and the Baltic states through security assistance and announced a partnership with Italy (and Japan) on a fighter jet project. Most notably, Sunak and French President Emmanuel Macron found bonhomie and agreed to cooperate on migration in the English Channel. Now with Brexit on the road to resolution, the focus should be turning this collaboration into a real partnership.

The United Kingdom may no longer be a member of the EU, but it is still a part of Europe. And the urgency is great. Policymakers in Brussels should see in London a partner that largely shares its outlook and embrace the United Kingdoms role in Europes security. Strategists in London should see their EU neighbor not just as a powerful trading bloc but an actor growing its geopolitical stature.

Put simply, London and Brussels need each other. By the House of Commons estimate, 42 percent of total UK exports went to the EU and 48 percent of imports came from the EU in 2022. For the EU, the United Kingdom is still one of the largest economies in Europe and a financial hub with deep access to capital markets despite its deep crisis in confidence. On defense, the United Kingdom is Ukraines single largest military supporter in Europe, second only to the United States worldwide. London has also promised increased defense spending in contrast to improving but struggling defense efforts elsewhere in Europe.

Beyond Ukraine lies China. Both London and Brussels are focused on the Indo-Pacific and working on how to manage the relationship with Beijing as competition moves closer to confrontationespecially between Washington and Beijing. The United Kingdom has the lead with its Indo-Pacific tilt, and Europe is grappling withbut inching forward ona new strategy and approach toward China and Taiwan.

Russias war in Ukraine, growing confrontation with China, and a rewiring of the global economy all serve as important reminders that the United Kingdoms relation to the EU almost seems like a footnote when you take a step back. The affronts, challenges, and challengers to the world system do not seem to differentiate much between the two. A stasis of skepticismor, at worst, estrangementcarries costly penalties for both sides of the Channel. As neighbors, global powers, and proponents of liberal governance in an increasingly geopolitical world, a productive relationship between London and Brussels becomes a necessity, not a luxury.

This is not to suggest that UK-EU policies will immediately fully align. There remain very real policy differences, and a reentry into the EU Single Market or Customs Union, let alone the bloc itself, is not in the cards. That should not stop policymakers from aspiring to a relationship based on shared interests. In practice, that means identifying areas of cooperation that are ambitious yet realistic across two priority areas: Defense and economics.

The EU has been bootstrapping its defense and security policies since the Russian invasion of Ukraine but is woefully underprepared for the geopolitical climate in which it finds itself. The United Kingdom can help. Options include:

On economics, the US Inflation Reduction Act and the EU Green Deal Industrial Plan are rewiring how traditional free traders do business. While slow in response, the United Kingdom still has a role to play. Policymakers could consider:

A bucolic weekend getaway on the coast wont bridge the cross-Channel divide. Real change will require buy-in from leadership at the highest levels in Brussels, capitals across Europe, and of course London. But the meeting does show that the European Union is thinking about its post-Brexit relationship with the United Kingdom. That is a start.

Jrn Fleck is the senior director of the Atlantic Councils Europe Center.

Ben Judah is the director of the Transform Europe Initiative in the Europe Center.

Mon, Oct 24, 2022

Fast ThinkingByAtlantic Council

Can Sunak steady the markets, the country, and the Conservative Party? How will minority communities in Britain view a history-making prime minister of Indian descent?

Image: British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen shake hands as they hold a news conference at Windsor Guildhall, Britain, February 27, 2023. Dan Kitwood/Pool via REUTERS

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How the EU and UK can start to collaborate in a post-Brexit world - Atlantic Council

Liberal Democrats

Party aiming to capitalise on disillusionment with government in blue wall Hertfordshire town in Mays local election

Sat 29 Apr 2023 01.00 EDT

Voters in the Hertfordshire town of Berkhamsted have been sending Victoria Collins, the Liberal Democrat prospective parliamentary candidate, videos of sewage. Out knocking on doors before local council elections in May, she claims the state of local waterways is an issue causing former Conservatives to move their vote.

A lot of people are just horrified, because theyre really proud of the local countryside, she says. Were talking to lifelong Tories who are saying, now might be the time to change.

With its half-timbered houses, smart coffee shops and reams of coronation bunting, Berkhamsted feels like true blue Tory territory. But the Lib Dems hope to make gains on 4 May. The partys leader, Ed Davey, even launched his local election campaign there, on a tractor.

Daisy Cooper, the MP for nearby St Albans, who won her seat from the Conservatives in 2019, says the issue of raw sewage being dumped into rivers sums up in a very obvious visceral and visual way, the state of the country; thats how bad its got, that they feel they can do this with impunity.

The local Dacorum district council has 31 Conservative councillors and 19 Lib Dems. With all the seats up for grabs, the Lib Dems believe they could even take control and then use it as a stepping stone to the general election, echoing their success in nearby Chesham and Amersham in 2021.

Its all of it, says Laila Walker, who stops Collins and Cooper in the street to offer her support and express frustration at the state of the country. The NHS obviously is just desperate. But cost of living theres not one thing, there are so many things.

Theres so much to do, agrees Mary Beard, a former teacher who is now a carer for her husband, as she stands at her front door in a well-kept conservation area near the town centre.

She highlights the expansion of free school meals as a policy she would like to see implemented more widely. Ive worked with some very poor children, and its difficult. At least then you know they have one good meal a day, she says. I understand a number of them dont have breakfast or anything like that.

Paula Surridge, an elections expert from the thinktank UK in a Changing Europe, says the Lib Dems are right to target blue wall areas like this. Theyre the right sort of places for them, and theyre there as a home for a lot of more liberal Conservative-leaning voters, who didnt vote Lib Dem in 2019 because they didnt want to let [Jeremy] Corbyn in by the back door.

But she cautions against expectations of sweeping gains on 4 May. This batch of council seats was last contested in 2019 when MPs were waging a debilitating war over Brexit. Back then, the Lib Dems gained more than 700 seats, while the two main parties, under Theresa May and Corbyn, both slumped to just 23% of the vote.

I would expect them to make a few gains; but I think both the Conservative losses and the Lib Dem gains are being a bit over-egged, she predicts.

On Berkhamsted High Street, disillusionment with the government is easy to find but its not necessarily matched by enthusiasm for the alternatives.

I think theyre bloody hopeless, to be honest, says Jenny Hackett, emerging from a dance class in the bunting-decked civic centre. Asked if she voted for the Conservatives, she concedes: Im ashamed to say I did.

I will not vote Conservative again, she says, but adds: I dont think Labour would do any better.

Like other voters the Guardian met in Berkhamsted, Hackett prefers Rishi Sunak to his predecessors but sees him as out of touch. Theyre so wealthy, they havent got a clue, have they? Hes a billionaire. But I do think hes the best of what theyve got.

Shelley Stoddart, fresh from browsing an estate agents window, says shes a bit disenchanted with all politicians, and has split her vote in the local elections between the Conservatives, Lib Dems and Greens. At a general election, though, she says: I would always vote Conservative. I think theyre all as bad as one another.

Mike Smith, a pensioner who worked for Kodak before it went bankrupt in 2012, says he has been waiting for two back operations for a year.

A Conservative voter in 2019, he says of the government: Theres a lot more they could do: theres quite a few things they need to address. Its not just the cost of living, its a number of other things as well. Government spend, efficiency, the NHS: all of those things.

Boris Johnson sold us down the river over Brexit, he says. The battle bus made people vote for something that wasnt really there in the first place, as far as Brexit was concerned.

Nevertheless, hell vote Conservative a next weeks local elections and is considering doing the same at the general election. Will I? I dont know. I dont think theres anybody better, to be honest. The Lib Dems, OK fine theyve won Chesham. Here, its pretty much Conservative. If they dont get their act together, I dont know theres nobody else.

Boundary changes mean Lib Dem candidate Collins expects to contest a new parliamentary seat, Harpenden and Berkhamsted, in 2024. It is unclear as yet who she will be facing, as the sitting Tory MPs, Gagan Mohindra and Bim Afolami, have been selected for other redrawn local constituencies.

Keir Starmer and the Labour party, meanwhile, barely seem to get a mention among voters here in the Chilterns, and despite tribal loyalties, are unlikely to mind the Lib Dems taking seats like these off the Tories. So perhaps it should be no surprise that the partys candidate for the Berkhamsted Castle ward, where Collins and Cooper are canvassing, is not out leafleting the neighbours, but at home, tinkering with his car.

Im a paper candidate, so Ill panic if I win, he grins. Introduced to Collins, who hopes to be his next MP, he says, its great to see you out: lovely, adding that when it comes to next years general election, I think weve got one objective.

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Cost of living, Brexit, sewage: how the Lib Dems plan to take Berkhamsted - The Guardian

Paula Surridge analyses UK in a Changing Europes latest Redfield and Wilton Strategies Brexit tracker poll. Shelooks at the influence of a partys Brexit stance on the voting behaviour of different groups to examine how much Brexit is likely to matter at the next election.

With Brexit seemingly of less concern to British voters and a general election on the horizon, a key question is the extent to which the Brexit positions of the parties will matter to the electorate when they next vote. It is a complex question, as voters are not always good at telling us directly the reasons for their vote. But it is critical for political parties thinking about how to engage with the issue in the coming months. Recent research has urged the Labour party to adopt a pro rejoin position, claiming it is a vote winner but has also found that the key swing groups were Leave leaning.

When asked what the most important issue facing the country currently is, fewer than one in five voters choose Brexit. Yet it clearly continues to play a key role in our national political conversation and to divide MPs both across and within political parties. For party strategists, though, a key issue beyond the detail of policy is how party positions on the EU affect the behaviour of voters.

Our Brexit public opinion tracker has asked a wide range of questions about peoples attitudes to Brexit, their Brexit identities and the extent to which various aspects of life in the UK have been improved or worsened as a result of leaving the EU. We have also asked voters about the influence of a partys Brexit stance on their voting behaviour, specifically: Which of the following parties would you be most likely to support and vote for?. Respondents can choose from A party that advocates FOR joining the EU, A party that advocates AGAINST joining the EU or A party that prioritises other issues first.

Overall, the electorate are split relatively evenly across these categories, with 37% saying they would be most likely to support a party in favour or joining the EU, 28% a party that is against joining and 36% saying they would be most likely to vote for a party that prioritises other issues.

There is, as we would expect, a strong pattern of 2016 Remain voters preferring to vote for parties in favour of joining, and Leavers preferring parties which are against joining. However, there is also evidence of large groups of voters on both sides preferring parties that are prioritising other issues.

When it comes to winning general elections, crafting a coalition of voters is key. For Labour and the Conservatives, groups of voters which switch between parties at elections are of particular importance when it comes to winning key seats.

Two groups of voters in recent vote intention polling are especially important. First, those who voted Conservative in 2019 but now say they will vote Labour: it is crucial for Labours polling lead to keep hold of this group. Second, those who voted Conservative in 2019 but are now undecided. Ensuring these voters come home to the Conservatives by polling day will be central to Tory hopes for the next election.

Separating out these different groups shows a more complex pattern of preferences, that pose different challenges for the parties.

Among those who voted Conservative in 2019 and currently would again, a party which is against joining the EU is the most popular response but only just. More than one in three would prefer a party which prioritises other issues, and one in four prefer a party which advocates for re-join. This highlights that even among those voters continuing to support the Conservatives, there are differences to navigate.

But divisions are even more marked amongs the groups of voters that have moved away from the Conservatives. Among those who voted Conservative in 2019 and now intend to vote Labour, there is an even split between those who would prefer a party in favour of rejoin, and those who would prefer a party which will stay out of the EU. However, the largest group are those that want a party that prioritises other issues.

For those who voted Conservative in 2019 but are now undecided voters, fewer than one in ten would support a party advocating for joining the EU, and a two-thirds would prefer a party to be focused on other issues.

The data suggest that those who voted Conservative in 2019 are now the most likely to want a party to prioritise issues other than Brexit, while those who voted Labour in 2019 are most likely to want a party to advocate for joining the EU.

This might at first appear to offer a straightforward solution to Sir Keir Starmer. But critically, the groups of voters Labour needs to boost the coalition it built in 2019 to government are more likely to want a focus on other things. Though a majority of currently undecided voters would prefer a party to not focus on Brexit, those who do express an opinion want a party that is not advocating joining the EU.

For the Conservatives, the difficulty is not that their voters are split between Brexit and other issues. Rather, the party can no longer rely on its Brexit position to hold on to voters who now have other priorities. To win back undecided voters, it is key to understand and act on their policy priorities.

For a majority of voters, the most important issues facing the country are the economy (and inflation) and the NHS. While these are clearly not unrelated to Brexit, a focus on these issues and party policies to address them is likely to be of much greater importance to voters in the next 18 months than any move to (re)join the EU.

By Professor Paula Surridge, Deputy Director, UK in a Changing Europe.

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Will Brexit matter at the next election? - UK in a Changing Europe

Rosie Goldsmith, a journalist and director of the sponsoring European Literature Network, chaired the panel and began by reminding the audience that a survey made several years ago of workers among the United Kingdoms creative industries found as many as 96 percent of the respondents saying they favored the country remaining in the European Union.

Brexit has changed our lives, Goldsmith said. We wont just be whingeing here. Well try to come up with how we can collaborate better and create literary cultural hubs.

Panelists included:

Mathias Rambaud provided a PowerPoint presentation onthe British book market and how Europe, prior to Brexit, had provided translation funding.

Some 200,000 books are published yearly in the United Kingdom, which makes it the third-largest market worldwide. By contrast, roughly 100,000 books are published yearly in France, although both countries have approximately the same population, around 67 million. This is explained by exports from the UK which represent 60 percent of all revenue, whereas in France exports represent 17.5 percent of all revenue. However, only 5.6 percent of books in the UK are translations while in France 16 percent of books are translations. Until recently French was the number one language for translation fiction sales in the UK, but Japanese has just overtaken French.

The United Kingdom was part of the Creative Europe program until 2020. The withdrawal from the European Union resulted in a significant decrease in funding for translated literature, Rambaud said, describing additional funding that had been available, provided by the French Institute and the Centre National du Livre.

On a brighter note, Rambaud said his work with the European Union National Institutes for Culture in London means trying to develop sustainable and long-running projects in the United Kingdom. One of these includestheEuropean Writers Festival, which grew out of the European Writers Tour that was created in 2017. This years festival will be held on May 20 and 21 at the British Library and will feature 30 European writers in partnership with EUNIC London, and the European Literature Network.

The United Kingdom could have remained part of Creative Europe despite leaving the European Union, according to Alexandra Bchler. She pointed to the examples of Norway and Iceland, both of which are participants in Creative Europe while non-EU members.

At Literature Across Frontiers, which is based in Wales, Bchler said, All projects are coordinated with partners. We advocate for literary translation because you cant have exchange without translation. What we do has been diminished because we dont have access to funding. [With Brexit], we ended up with a trade deal that didnt make any provision for the creative sector.

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At London Book Fair: Brexit and Creative Industry Funding - Publishing Perspectives

The UK exported 340 billion of goods and services to the EU last year (Image: Getty)

A new analysis of UK trade has exploded the myth that a post-pandemic downturn in exports can be blamed on Brexit.

Pro-remain commentators have used lower export figures to argue the UK would be better off in the EU.

But experts at the Centre for Brexit Policy say this ignores global problems such as a shortage of computer chips following the pandemic.

In a paper to be published this week they also warn the UK is failing to make the most of its natural resources, following a fall in North Sea oil and gas production.

Report author Phil Radford said the nature of the UK economy meant it was harder hit than others by disruption caused by Covid.

He said: In 2019, the motor vehicle and aerospace sectors were easily our biggest goods-export industries.

They delivered a combined 20 percent of all UK goods exports in 2019.

Yet this sectoral study shows that in the UK, these two sectors were easily the hardest hit by recent global events, including the pandemic, microchip shortages and the temporary collapse of civilian aviation. In G7 terms, this made UK trade uniquely vulnerable to global events.

He added: UK exports missed out on recent surges in global demand. Declining long-term investment in the North Sea meant our trade did not benefit from the energy crisis, as happened in the US and Canada.

Meanwhile, offshoring in our pharmaceutical industry meant we failed to gain from the spike in demand for vaccines, like Germany and the US.

READ MORE: Kirstie Allsopp blames Putin, Liz Truss and Brexit for mortgage crisis

But Brexit has had a trivial effect on UK-EU trade, the report will say.

It contradicts claims from bodies such as the Tony Blair Foundation, which claimed in February that Britains trade has been hit significantly by its departure from the single market.

The UK exported 340 billion of goods and services to the EU last year.

Energy industry body Offshore Energies UK last month warned that 90 percent of firms involved in North Sea oil and gas were cutting investment as a result of the energy windfall tax known as the Energy Profits Levy imposed by the Treasury, which is expected to raise 40 billion over five years.

Political uncertainty and increased costs have also reduced investment, the industry says.

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What Brexit downturn? Experts say report shows EU exit not to blame for export issue - Express

Many were recently transfixed by Boris Johnsons appearance at the Commons Committee of Privileges following allegations of his misleading parliament over Partygate. The committee is yet to deliver its report, but this could ultimately result in the former prime minister being removed as an MP.

This episode refocused the nation on Johnsons often contested relationship with the truth. It had particular resonance because Partygate brings back painful memories for many of us, of a time when we couldnt gather with friends and family for occasions such as weddings and funerals, let alone with colleagues at work. Pandemic restrictions directly touched all our lives.

In contrast, the complex and lengthy debates over Brexit affected few of us personally. The intricacies of the negotiations, and seemingly endless arguments in parliament about implementing the 2016 referendum result, indeed caused many simply to switch off. But, as explored in my recent book with Lisa James, The Parliamentary Battle over Brexit, examination of this period often finds Johnson at the centreand displaying even more troubling behaviours. We didnt set out to write a book about Boris Johnson, but he is unavoidably present at every stage of the Brexit story. His duplicity throughout caused more lasting and tangible damage than that over the parties in Number 10.

Some early flashpoints over Brexit have already received significant attention. Johnson famously drafted two Telegraph columns taking opposing positions before deciding which side to support in the referendum, and his backing of Vote Leave surprised and disappointed David Cameron. Arguments over the truthfulness of claims on the Brexit battlebus are also well-rehearsed. But neither of these familiar and disputed episodes is essential to the case.

After the referendum, Johnson was widely expected to replace Cameron as Conservative leader. However, his campaign imploded when Michael Gove denounced him as unfit for office. Instead, Theresa May became prime minister, and Johnson a constant thorn in her side.

Initially appointed Mays foreign secretary after the referendum, Johnson made frequent unhelpful interventions, often around the time of party conferences. For example in September 2017, a Telegraph column set out his bold vision for Brexit, which went well beyond his policy brief and was seen as a veiled leadership bid. The following summer he resigned from the Cabinet, following on the heels of Mays Brexit secretary David Davis, over her Chequers proposals. His biographer Tom Bower suggests that a key considerationrather than necessarily the principle of Brexitwas Johnsons fear that Davis would gain the support of Brexiteers in any future leadership contest.

May eventually agreed a Brexit deal with the EU after many months of negotiation, particularly focused on avoiding border problems for Northern Ireland. When this was put to the House of Commons, Johnson was the first Conservative backbencher on his feet and denounced it as a national humiliation that makes a mockery of Brexit. His voice was influential, and was followed by many other Conservative critics. The deal was defeated by a whopping 432 votes to 202, with Johnson among the 118 Conservative rebels voting against it. This pattern repeated two months later, in March 2019, when he was one of 75 Conservative MPs to reject the deal.

When May responded by publicly denouncing parliaments intransigence, Johnson again took to the pages of the Telegraph to criticise her in the strongest terms. In an article titled Theresa May is a Chicken Whos Bottled Brexit, he argued that it was wrong in every sense to blame MPs for blocking Brexit.

These interventions, and the repeat rejections of her deal, helped erode and ultimately destroy Mays premiership. In the contest to replace her, it was Dominic Raab who publicly floated the idea of proroguing parliament potentially to force through a no-deal Brexit. He had promised this to the hardline Eurosceptic ERG in hopes of winning their votes, but they ultimately chose to back Boris Johnson. Johnson had almost certainly given the same assurances, but publicly claimed not to be attracted to the idea. Having won the premiership, he then proposed a five-week prorogation, later overturned in the Supreme Court. While claiming at the time that this was nothing to do with Brexit, his aides later admitted the obvious: that it was.

But the most fundamental falsehood related to Johnsons eventual Brexit deal, negotiated in haste when it became clear that parliament would not permit a no-deal outcome. Having publicly assured the Northern Ireland DUP that no British Conservative government could or should sign a deal with the EU which put a trade border down the Irish Sea, Johnson went on to do exactly that. In effect, he agreed a deal that Theresa May had rejected, precisely to avoid such border problems. ERG hardliners were dismayed by the Northern Ireland provisions, but by then feared that Brexit might otherwise be lost. Crucially Mark Francois, now ERG chair, recounts Johnsons private promises to the group that if they voted for the deal he would subsequently reopen it.

Notwithstanding these clear disagreements, Johnson sold his package during the 2019 general election campaign as oven ready. He roundly rejected claims that it would create a trade border in the Irish Sea. These were the foundations upon which Johnsons electoral mandate was built. In a direct reversal of his previous position, his campaign was fought on a manifesto suggesting that the country had been paralysed by a broken parliament and which criticised MPs for thwarting Brexit. Johnson therefore claimednotwithstanding his own rebellions on Mays dealto be the man to get Brexit done.

British politics has continued to have to live with the consequences of these various falsehoods. Most obviously, the DUP has refused to enter power-sharing arrangements at Stormont until the Brexit deal is changed, and Northern Ireland continues to be without a government. This is despite Rishi Sunaks careful negotiation of the Windsor framework (which Johnson notably voted against). More broadly, the UKs key institutionsincluding parliament and the courtshave yet to recover from the attacks that they suffered during the Brexit period.

The story of Johnson and Brexit has rarely been fully told. It is clearly awkward for Conservatives, who understandably prefer to move on. Brexit in general is also too awkward for Labour to have felt able to expose Johnsons behaviour. But while his dishonesty over Partygate is seriousreally seriousthe legacy of his dishonesty over Brexit goes far deeper.

Read the rest here:

Boris Johnson's greatest dishonesty is still over Brexit - Prospect Magazine

Arron Banks has successfully appealed part of the judgment in his libel claim against Carole Cadwalladr before the Court of Appeal. The case hinged on the public interest defence, which was established for the first phase of publication (a TED talk). The appeal focused on whether the claimant had to show serious harm had been caused by later phases of publication (further publication of the Ted talk and a Tweet) to succeed in his claim once the public interest defence had ceased to apply.

Background

The claimant is a businessman who was the leader of the campaign for the UK to leave the EU. The defendant is a freelance journalist. The claimant sued the defendant for libel in a talk (the TED Talk) and a tweet (the Tweet), each of which suggested that the claimant had secretly broken the law on electoral funding by taking money from a foreign power and subsequently lying about it. The TED Talk and the Tweet were both published online to a substantial audience in this jurisdiction.

By the time of the trial, official investigations had found no evidence that there had been any such breach of the law, and so a defence of truth was abandoned by the defendant. Instead, she relied on the statutory defence of publication on matters of public interest. The case hinged on (a) whether the claimant had proved that publication had caused serious harm to his reputation or was likely to do so, and if so, (b) whether the publication was protected by the public interest defence.

In the High Court, the trial judge held that the defendant was only able to rely on the defence of public interest until publication of a statement by the Electoral Commission exonerating the claimant. Despite this, the trial judge concluded that the claimant did not meet the threshold for serious harm in the second phase of publication of the Ted Talk or the Tweet and the claim was therefore dismissed.

The Judgment

The three issues put to the Court of Appeal (the Court) were:

On the first issue, the Court agreed with the trial judges decision that the finding of serious harm at the time of the publication needed to be reassessed at the point which the public interest defence fell away (i.e., phase two of the publication). A statement is only to be regarded as defamatory if, and to the extent that, its publication causes serious harm to reputation or is likely to do so. It is a reminder in cases that involve continuing publication that each phase must individually cause serious harm to the claimants reputation.

On the second issue, the Court disagreed with the trial judges finding that the publication did not cause serious harm because it was made in the defendants echo chamber. It was significant that the TED Talk had been extensively published in England and Wales in Phase Two and the trial judges finding that the harm caused was less because the opinions of these viewers were of no consequence to the claimant was wrong in principle.

On the third issue, the Court held that despite the trial judge erring on the second issue, this did not fatally undermine her conclusion insofar as the Tweet was concerned. However, in light of the finding on the second issue, it was incorrect to conclude that harm caused by the later publication of the TED Talk was not serious.

The Court held that damages should be assessed and awarded in respect of phase two of the publication of the TED Talk but not in respect of the publication of the Tweet.

Conclusion

The appeal reinforces to journalists the need to continually assess whether a statement remains in the public interest. If new evidence comes to light which causes the defence to fall away, the availability of other defences should be considered -if there are none, this case highlights the risk of a defamation complaint being upheld if serious harm is being caused.

A link to the judgment can be foundhere.

Read the original:

Leader of Brexit campaign successfully appeals part of his libel case - Lexology

Unfortunately, none seem ready to accept that theyve been metaphorically breeding, feeding and raising those dogs just yet, but it reminds me of the now legendary 2015 tweet that goes I never thought leopards would eat MY face, sobs woman who voted for the Leopards Eating Peoples Faces Party.

They voted to end freedom of movement without the vaguest inkling that it would be THEIR freedom of movement that ended.

OTHER NEWS:

They cry woke! at anyone challenging their view, blissfully unaware that theyre led sleepily by the nose via self-proclaimed patriotic newspapers owned offshore for tax purposes.

They blame the Metropolitan Elite for subverting democracy whilst voting for a party of privately educated millionaires that seem incapable of keeping their fingers out of dodgy pies.

And now they want to leave the European Court of Human Rights so they can persecute refugees, clearly oblivious to the fact that they themselves are, indeed, humans with rights.

But gone to the dogs is a start I suppose.

The falsehoods are stretched so thin now that reality is clearly visible through it. Maybe, just maybe, theres an awakening afoot and the days of the Leopards Eating Peoples Faces Party are coming to a close?

We can only hope, because until this ends, it only gets worse.Alan, Llandod

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Read more from the original source:

Letter: Brexit benefits myth is being stretched thin - Powys County Times

The Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, has urged the UKs Government to ease the post-Brexit visa rules that, according to him, are preventing European Union citizens from visiting the capital for different purposes, such as education, work, as well as tourism.

According to a report provided by the UKs Government, before the Brexit transition period, over 1.5 million children entered Britain each year to pursue their studies or through organised school trips, SchengenVisaInfo.com reports.

The report notes that at the time, Britain welcomed a total of 750,000 children from France and Germany alone, who could enter the country by only holding their European Economic Area identity cards.

But since October 2021, all children planning to visit Britain are required to have a passport, while those with non-EU passports, also taking into account refugees, are subject to a 95 visa.

>> Applying for a Schengen Visa in the UK

Londons Mayor, together with London & Partners, will launch a new tourism campaign this summer in order to attract visitors from France and Germany.

Khan has considered that encouraging more young Europeans to visit London is essential for the tourism sector as well as the rich cultural exchange of ideas and experiences.

In addition, the Mayor called on the Government to launch a Youth Group Travel Scheme, the main purpose of which would be to make Britain open to a more significant number of school children from countries worldwide.

As part of efforts to permit further cultural exchange, the Mayor of London has also said that the Youth Mobility Scheme should be extended in a reciprocal agreement with European Union countries, which would also support several supports, including the hospitality and catering sectors which are dealing with notable labour shortages.

Our post-Brexit future does not have to mean isolation from our European friends and partners and restrictive policies that only damage our economy and opportunities for growth, Khan pointed out.

London Mayors comments have been welcomed by the Executive Director of the Tourism Alliance, Richard Toomer.

The tourism industry warmly welcomes the mayors commitment to encouraging youth travel to and from our nations capital, Toomer said.

He said that the UK has much to offer to visitors from other countries, stressing that the country should be encouraging tourists to visit this territory instead of putting up unnecessary barriers.

Toomer said that the decision to accept ID cards at the border no longer has significantly affected the number of foreign visitors to the UK, especially on organised school trips. He stressed that last year alone, there was an 83 per cent reduction in the figures of students that operators in Europe sent to the UK.

>> UKs New Passport Rules Severely Reduce EU School Visits

Originally posted here:

London Mayor Calls on Gov't to Ease Post-Brexit Visa Rules for EU ... - SchengenVisaInfo.com