Category Archives: Bitcoin

The political and economic sun has been rising in the East over the past century with China playing an increasingly important role in global geopolitics. Despite this trend, I have long been skeptical of Chinas centralized and autocratic governance structure, and 2021 could be a monumental year, exposing the frailties of excessive control. If Bitcoin proves to be as important a technology as I think it is, then the CCPs decision to ban bitcoin mining could prove to be the biggest geopolitical faux pas of the next decade. In summary, while decentralized Bitcoin has displayed its resilience to regulation, bans and decreased the probability of a 51% attack, centralized China may have handed a critical technology of the future to its peers.

The U.S. and China have been at loggerheads in recent years with flashpoints over controlling companies, tariffs and trade, Xinjiang, the Olympics, coronavirus origins, Hong Kong, spying, Huawei, Taiwan, the South China Sea, TikTok and WeChat, Tibet, and so on. Hopefully the worlds two largest nations do not end in a hot war, but they will likely remain in a cold war for many years to come as the U.S. withdraws from its position as global hegemon, China rises in the East and we jostle for a new world order. Despite all this conflict, the geopolitics of bitcoin mining has fallen under the U.S.-China radar.

Most people do not properly comprehend Bitcoin let alone politicians and mainstream media outlets so ignorance of Bitcoin geopolitics is unsurprising. But just like Bitcoin is growing in financial and economic importance, so will its geopolitical significance.

There is a fascinating geopolitical shift underway in Bitcoin where power is shifting from the East to the West.

China and the U.S. are both trying to exert control over their populations. The Chinese centralized apparatus is far swifter and more effective than the U.S. Some would argue there are benefits to the Chinese approach like fighting the COVID-19 pandemic but there are certainly consequences too. While China is turning away bitcoin miners, Western entrepreneurs are capitalizing and entrenching this industry in the West.

We have established over recent quarters that Bitcoin is a powerful technology with immense potential for the world. The future is uncertain, but a digital, decentralized, secure and scarce asset has the potential to be a cornerstone of a new digital financial infrastructure. With each passing cycle, the probability that Bitcoin has a role to play in global financial infrastructure increases and smart individuals, institutions and funds are securing their exposure to the network.

Miners are a critical component of the Bitcoin network; they secure the network and process transactions. At the start of the year, China sat in the kingmaker seat in this industry with approximately 75% of global bitcoin mining resources. This dominance was potentially a powerful tool for the Chinese economy. Yet in Q3 2021, China decided to ban bitcoin mining. Rather than tax, coerce or confiscate the equipment, miners were allowed to leave China en masse in Q3 2021.

The reasoning for Chinas decision is uncertain but what we do know is that it would be very difficult to execute this type of blanket ban in a moderately free country. Imagine your country wiping out an industry at a whim. The U.S. is struggling to pass an infrastructure bill; how are they going to pass a ban on an asset they do not even understand? I wrote more about this in Worried About A Ban? Then You Need Bitcoin More Than You Think.

The Western world is far too swayed by tax revenue, fear of making mistakes and immediate political pressures to implement a blanket ban on bitcoin mining. By contrast, China is only able to implement a ban because it is centralized and autocratic. I expect this rash centralized decision could be the biggest geopolitical faux pas of the next decade, ceding technological power and resources to global peers.

Not only do miners secure the network, they convert energy into a digital monetary network, which has potentially profound implications for the broader energy industry. I recommend reading Nic Carters recent article Bitcoin Mining Is Reshaping The Energy Industry And No One Is Talking About It for more information . I also covered much of this ground in The ESG Solution.

1) Miners can utilize energy at times when normal consumers have low demand. Often this energy is wasted because we do not have a cost effective means of large-scale energy storage nor long-distance transportation.

2) Miners can provide a base load for intermittent electricity producers. Renewable energy producers are often the most intermittent, so miners can support renewables investment and ESG goals.

3) Miners can make an energy grid more robust because they can also be turned off if energy is required elsewhere.

Source: CBECI

China has just handed over one of the most exciting new industries to the rest of the world. Miners have relocated across the globe, and the U.S. has been the biggest beneficiary. Most U.S. politicians probably have no idea what is going on, but some do. I know Ted Cruz is not everyones cup of tea but listen to this interview he gave on bitcoin mining. I think he understands a thing or two about the potential positive impact mining could have in America.

This is a guest post by Rob Price. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC, Inc. or Bitcoin Magazine.

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Chinas Bitcoin Ban Is The Unnoticed Geopolitical Event Of The Decade - Bitcoin Magazine

Popular Bitcoin ATM operator, Bitcoin of America, has announced their newest location in one of Chicago's hottest nightclubs. Joy District is known for its nightclub/restaurant hybrid. It is located in the heart of River North and has been awarded as one of Chicago's best and hottest rooftop bars. You can now socialize at Joy District with friends and even interact with a Bitcoin ATM all at the same time.

Bitcoin of America is a popular virtual currency exchange, registered as a money services business with the United States Department of Treasury (FinCEN)(RegNum). Bitcoin of America is known for ensuring a fast and hassle-free transaction, while providing top of the line customer support. Bitcoin of America is looking to provide their customers with a fast and easy transaction process, while securing the best rate in the market. They are headquartered in Chicago and have locations in most major cities across 31 US states.Bitcoin of America also offers online trade, a wallet and mobile app, and agent locations.

To date, Bitcoin of America has 30 plus Bitcoin ATM locations across the city of Chicago. You can find a majority of their locations in convenience stores, liquor stores, and 24-hour gas stations. This new location is changing the way that most people think about interacting with cryptocurrency. It is rare to find a Bitcoin ATM in a social setting like a nightclub, but Bitcoin of America is finally making this all possible.

Bitcoin of America is always looking to provide convenience to their customers. Their newest Bitcoin ATM location at Joy District also operates as a traditional ATM. Customers have the option to either withdraw cash or choose the cryptocurrency of their choice. Bitcoin of America is looking to change the way that they interact with their customers by making their Bitcoin ATMs more accessible. They launched their all-new universal kiosk this year.

There are 3 total functions that these kiosks offer. The first is the traditional ATM feature where customers can dispense cash from a debit card. The second function is being able to buy cryptocurrency with cash. The last is that customers can sell crypto in return for cash. They are hoping that these kiosks will help make cryptocurrency into more of a daily normality. What makes these locations so convenient for customers, is that often times there is a need to take out cash beforehand. Now customers have the ability to do it all at one location. Bitcoin of America has also explained that these universal kiosks are great for merchants who typically have a Bitcoin ATM and traditional ATM sitting next to each other because they are able to free up floor space.

Bitcoin of America has made a large footprint when it comes to bringing cryptocurrency to the City of Chicago. They announced in early October that they are now the official entitlement sponsor of The Chicago Blackhawks Post Game show. In August of this year Bitcoin of America also announced that they would be working with WGN Radio Chicago. WGN even added a daily Bitcoin price update sponsored by Bitcoin of America. They are hoping to bring awareness to cryptocurrency by promoting it across all platforms. Bitcoin of America has also been vocal about providing more free opportunities for the public to learn the basics of cryptocurrency and bringing more women into the industry.

Bitcoin of America is looking to places more locations similarly to their newest addition. They even offer a host program for any business owner looking to get involved. Bitcoin of America provides a fully automated, turnkey opportunity for businesses to make extra income by hosting a cryptocurrency exchange. The surprise to many is that all of this comes free of charge when you host a location. Bitcoin of America takes care of everything from maintenance to marketing. All of their locations receive a monthly ad budget on Google and 100+ business directories. With all of this increased marketing, Bitcoin of America mentions that it has led to increased foot traffic as well. There is also a chance for a wider network of customers, as locations are being advertised in new places. Bitcoin of America offers 24/7 customer support to both the host and to the client. They even take care of all maintenance and installation services for the hardware required to run a local bitcoin exchange.

Bitcoin of America is also hoping that their point-of-sale system will allow for locations like Joy District to begin integrating cryptocurrency into their businesses. The POS system allows stores to start accepting cryptocurrency as a form of payment. Similarly, to hosting an ATM, the, cost for this is zero. You even get the same advantages: free advertising, marketing materials, and passive income.

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The Future of Nightlife Is Here: Bitcoin of America Adds Bitcoin ATM to Joy District Chicago - Crain's Chicago Business

According to Invesco Asset Managements presentation, the underlying fund, Invesco CoinShares Global Blockchain UCITS ETF, aims to achieve the performance of the CoinShares Blockchain Global Equity Index. The latest review document published by the index provider (CoinShares) states that the index aims to offer exposure to listed companies that participate or have the potential to participate in the blockchain or cryptocurrency ecosystem.

The review document further adds, During the quarter ended October 2021, the CoinShares Blockchain Global Equity Index generated a total return of 12.9%, in comparison to the MSCI World Net Total Return Index, which generated a total return of 3.8%. This strong quarter was primarily driven by a resurgence in crypto prices. However, although crypto prices overtook their April 2021 highs, stock valuations have not returned to the elevated levels seen in the first half of the year."

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Invesco CoinShares Global Blockchain ETF has a size of $1.075 billion and is domiciled in Ireland. It was launched on 8 March 2019. Since inception, the ETF has delivered 238% in absolute terms compared to the 1,572% return delivered by bitcoin.

However, the ETFs broader universe of blockchain and tech companies also makes it less volatile than bitcoin. When bitcoin nearly halved from around $60,000 to $30,000-odd levels from March to June 2021, the fund took a hit of just about 20%. However, the fund is more volatile than a broad equity index.

According to the funds presentation, its one-year standard deviation is 31.1% compared to 11.1% for the MSCI World Index. Bitcoin, on the other hand, has a one-year standard deviation of 75.5%, said a senior financial services executive, who declined to be named.

The Invesco ETF has a mix of crypto-related stocks and companies that are in the broader tech space. The ETFs largest holding (4.83%) is Coinbase Global Inc., a US-based cryptocurrency exchange. Its second largest holding (4.34%), GMO Internet is a Japanese company engaged in businesses such as internet infrastructure, online advertising and media, internet finance businesses and cryptocurrency, according to its website.

Around 65% of the ETFs portfolio is in blockchain-related companies and 35% is in companies providing broking services, mining operations or are crypto asset exchanges, or provide financial services, says the executive mentioned earlier.

The fund counts among its holdings providers of technology, technology hardware, software, systems, networking, financing projects; companies like IBM (one of the pioneers working in enterprise blockchain space), Oracle, Intel, AMD, Samsung Electronics, NTT Data Corp, Taiwan Semiconductor, Qualcomm," he said.

The Invesco India presentation points to the increasing adoption of blockchain tech in the world, including India. Blockchain is the technology that enables cryptocurrencies to exist, but it is not identical with them. The BFSI sector is leading the blockchain adoption in India. There are more blockchain solution implementations across major banks and insurance companies," it adds.

A Nasscom report cited in the presentation points to specific examples such as ICICI Bank using blockchain in international remittances and Bajaj Allianz General Insurance using blockchain in claims settlement.

The healthcare sector is also adopting blockchain, it says. Apollo Hospitals is collaborating with Oracle, Strides Pharma and NITI Aayog to build a blockchain solution that will store drug details such as drug serial number, labelling and scanning details about manufacturers supply chain which will track every hand change in the network," the presentation says.

Private companies and government institutions in India are warming up to the idea of blockchain.

As Mint reported earlier, market regulator Sebi has asked depositories to create, host and maintain a system using the distributed ledger technology, or blockchain technology, to record and monitor the creation of securities as well as to monitor the covenants of non-convertible securities, which will be tested from 1 January 2022.

The Invesco CoinShares Global Blockchain ETF FoF is, at best, a limited bet on crypto. The fund does not directly hold any cryptocurrencies. It benefits from rising crypto prices by investing a part of its portfolio in firms related to the crypto industry. The correlation of daily returns of the ETF and bitcoin prices over the past year is just 20%. However, for investors who are curious about this space, this may be a conservative way to take a small exposure to the crypto space.

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Is Invesco's new fund a foot in the bitcoin door? - Mint

In a moment of balance and strength, I felt my muscles stiffen, the pressure against my right triceps increasing. Flirting with gravity, I engaged my core like I had a hundred times before, raised my hips a little higher, and started angling my upper body towards my friend. I looked at him with a labored gaze before I remembered my many teachers' endless insistence that I smile. With equal part astonishment and equal part disbelief, he muttered that he could never possibly do that: "That's impossible. You are just so flexible!"

The great mistake in that sentence is the word are: it took me five years to reach that yoga pose, and only in the last 12 months or so was I strong enough to finally experiment with the arm balance we were exploring. There was no static "are" involved, no fixed description that somehow belonged to my being or inscribed in my genome. Combining the balance, the strength, the flexibility, and the concentration required to hold my body in place was no mere accident or circumstance. For hours on end, day after day, week after week, I had put my money where my mouth was or rather, body where my yoga mat was and endured. I had put in the work that over time resulted in a body capable and strong enough to hold a complicated arm balance.

What the Bitcoin networks proof-of-work so neatly captures about reality is that nothing valuable in our world comes from nothing; nothing worth having can be had by the waving of magic wands. You must put real-world resources behind the computer network that powers bitcoin, for a randomized yet pre-programmed chance at receiving some new coins. Let there be light, said God allegedly and nobody else ever. This isnt just true in the ethereal world of digital money, but in probably every endeavor worth doing.

Wherever I look these days, I see proof-of-work. The skills that people have acquired are their proof-of-work long arduous hours before a computer coding, in a simulator trying to fly an airplane, in a baking hot sun laying bricks upon bricks, or in apprenticeships or training that teach you how to safely lay electrical wires or perform open-heart surgery. The humongous podcast catalogues that this or that podcaster has, or the astonishing output that certain writers have run up, are proof-of-work. The relationships people have cultivated, with their friends and families and lovers, are proof-of-work. All of them included different ingredients, came into existence in different ways and with different starting points, but all required nurturing to flourish. They exist, and flourish, because their participants have put work into them.

All of us are given very different starting points in life, and sometimes anothers raw talents seem altogether unfair. That guy had a head start; this dude lucked out; that family had financial resources; those people had better genes. Often, we see ourselves as uniquely disadvantaged compared to someone else or some ideal life we might imagine that others lead. Even so, very few people can succeed with raw talent or ability alone: even the most talented basketball player needs hours and hours on that court; the baseball batter with the most perfect build needs to hone that hitting ability into perfection.

Nobody gets anything for free, not even the Bitcoiners who stumbled onto the worlds best performing asset way before it was cool. They faced challenges of their own that us latecomers never had to: they doubted the entire project, more than once every time something bad happened or their underdeveloped markets dropped 80%. They had to learn on their own, rather than follow podcasters and how-to guides for everything. They had to invent, circumvent, or build the technical and financial infrastructure that the rest of us take for granted today. Yes, the ones who grasped the importance of bitcoin in the early days, and put in the mental and practical work required, have been richly rewarded but they also faced challenges to their diamond hands that the rest of us could hardly even imagine.

Deep friendships dont drop from the sky, but require long and hard work. Beyond the youthful relations that bloom during intense summers or first semesters at college, the enduring friendships we grown-ups have nurtured remain precisely because we maintain them. With our best friends, we've gone through rough patches, dealt with hard times, shared accomplishments, and put in the hours needed when either they wanted it or we needed it.

Soul mates, lifelong companions, and other idealized descriptions of love require even higher amounts of devotion and negotiation. They take time to develop, and not just days and weeks and years but time spent together, exploring, improving, attempting, and yes, negotiating. Successful relationships are proof-of-work. Its hard to carve out an intimate life with another person, harder the more stressors of politics, societal divides, and financial hardships surround them. One does not simply swipe right a few times and effortlessly find their perfect life partner: however well-matched you are, it takes work time, attention, commitment, vulnerability, and plenty of sacrifices. Its the proof-of-work that matters, not the proof-of-accident or fleeting attraction.

There is but one proof-of-steak I endorse in my life the pictures of my carnivore(-ish) meals that I send, not to Instagram as my fellow millennials might have, but to my shitcoiner friends (always with a comment about staking). And even this proof-of-steak is technically proof-of-work, because you need to source it, earn it, make it, and most importantly: commit to it before it starts building you into the stronger human being for which steak is intended.

My generation was raised, intentionally or not, with the opposite mentality a proof-of-stake mentality, where our mere existence conveyed rights, benefits, and well-being. Every one of us spoiled snowflakes were unique and perfect the way we were, and now are, and tomorrow will be. Whatever we feel is real, whatever delusion we have incorporated lately must be unquestioningly accepted by everyone else. We cannot be exposed to any sort of risk, in case they traumatize us or hurt our precious feelings; horrific ideas of other people cannot be allowed in our midst.

Its no surprise that a generation of proof-of-stake later, we're all coddled and compliant, naive and credulous, unhealthy and stupid. It's no wonder we trust our monetary overlords more so than our own interactions with the world: the top stakers in our fiat proof-of-stake system say that something is, then surely who am I to object?

Everything important in life requires you to focus, to work diligently toward the thing you desire. You will face set-backs; others will do better than you; and you will wonder why on Earth you even try. Before you actually get around to pressing that buy button, do that bitcoin-paying gig, or mine those first sats, you get nothing.

Everything in the world requires work physical, mental, or financial. What we are isnt fixed, and at the bottom of bitcoins promise to the world lies the promise that work rewards and discipline matters. Everyone gets bitcoin when theyre ready, or intellectually open to it; everyone thus gets the bitcoin price and allocation they deserve.

You dont get things for nothing; You must put in the work before you reap the rewards. Bitcoin teaches us that. Until very recently in our societies, reality taught us that too.

In time, perhaps it can once more.

This is a guest post by Joakim Book. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

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Like Bitcoin, Everything Important Is Proof-of-Work - Bitcoin Magazine

1. Bitcoin Retreats From All-Time High, Ether Follows  CoinDesk
2. Fresh Bitcoin price highs put bulls in profit for Fridays $1.2B BTC options expiry  Cointelegraph
3. Bitcoin price pulls back from recent highs  Fox Business
4. Bitcoin Price Prediction Avoiding a Return to sub-$64,500 Would Be Needed to Avoid the Deep Red  FX Empire
5. Bitcoin: Q4 may turn out to be the best one yet this year  AMBCrypto News
6. View Full Coverage on Google News

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Bitcoin Retreats From All-Time High, Ether Follows - CoinDesk

Bitcoin and ether hit fresh all-time highs on Tuesday, extending their rally from a day earlier.

Bitcoin's price at one point rose above $68,000, eclipsing a previous record set in late October. The world's biggest digital currency climbed as high as $68,521 before easing slightly to $67,106.

It was last up over 2% in the past 24 hours as of 10:30 a.m. ET, according to Coin Metrics data.

Ether, the native currency of ethereum's blockchain, notched a record high of $4,840, surpassing the $4,800 level for the first time ever.

The token traded about 1.3% higher in the last 24 hours at a price of $4,805.

These record-breaking moves come amid a wider rally in the crypto market, which surpassed $3 trillion this week. So-called "ethereum killers" solana and cardano are up 21% and 16% respectively in the last seven days.

TheProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF, which launched in October and tracks bitcoin futures contracts pegged to the future price of the cryptocurrency, was up more than 8% on Monday.

While it is difficult to link short-term price movements to any specific event and cryptocurrency price charts are often rife with volatility some analysts think that both bitcoin and ether will continue to trend upward in the weeks ahead.

In a note sent on Monday, Mikkel Morch, executive director at crypto hedge fundARK36, said a $70,000 price for bitcoin now "seems imminent."

Others have bolder projections for where bitcoin is headed, as JPMorgan recently doubled down on its prediction that bitcoin would ultimately hit $146,000, with a shorter-term price target of $73,000 for this year.

Next week, bitcoin rolls out its biggest upgrade in four years.

The software upgrade is known as Taproot. It will mean greater transaction privacy and efficiency and crucially, it will unlock the potential for smart contracts, a key feature of its blockchain technology.

Meanwhile, ether has been on an upswing since it implemented Altair, a network upgrade that went live in late October.

Altair was largely seen as a non-event to most everyone except validators that is, the people on the ethereum network who verify transactions. But the upgrade was a pivotal step in implementing ethereum 2.0 or Eth2, which has been in the works for years and will fundamentally overhaul the entire network.

Ethereum 2.0 would have the network switch from the energy-intensive "proof-of-work" mining system, where miners solve difficult math equations to create new coins, to "proof-of-stake," which just requires users to leverage their existing cache of ether as a means to verify transactions and mint new tokens.

Eth2 aims to make ethereum more scalable, secure and sustainable. This change will be huge not just for ethereum, but for the wider cryptocurrency community at large.

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Bitcoin hits new all-time high above $68,000 as cryptocurrencies extend rally - CNBC

What happened

After weeks of almost continuous good news for the cryptocurrency industry, we are seeing a widespread sell-off today. Big cryptocurrencies are down, altcoins are down, and even meme coins are having a rough day.

In the last 24 hours, Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) is down 5%, Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH) is down 1.3% after being down as much as 8%, and Dogecoin (CRYPTO:DOGE) has fallen 2.4% as of 1 p.m. EST. Very few cryptocurrencies are trading higher today and some are down nearly 10% in the last 24 hours.

Image source: Getty Images.

The biggest news this week is that inflation is going up faster than expected and cryptocurrency investors don't quite know what to make of that. Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies were up sharply yesterday after the Labor Department reported that the consumer price index was up 6.2% from a year ago, the highest inflation rate since December 1990.

Higher inflation in theory will lead to higher interest rates and investors looking for ways to hedge inflation and higher rates. As a store of value, Bitcoin, in particular, was seen as a potential place for investors to put money if inflation picks up. That's why it was up yesterday, but the trend has reversed course today.

It will take time for the market to figure out what to do with the latest inflation data. There are solid arguments that inflation is only heading higher but there are also solid arguments that many inflationary drivers like higher auto prices, rising food costs, and even higher oil and natural gas prices will ease over time.

We also learned on Wednesday that Bitwise Asset Management decided to withdraw its application for a Bitcoin futures ETF. The company will focus on a spot-based ETF instead, but the two products could have brought a new cohort of users into the Bitcoin market.

Cryptocurrencies have been on a quick run higher over the past month. Bitcoin and Ethereum, in particular, are up over 20% and a pullback is natural at this point. It could simply be that big investors are taking some chips off the table today.

Bitcoin Price data by YCharts

The biggest questions for cryptocurrencies are still outstanding, like what are long-term use cases and when will fees for transferring cryptocurrency come down? Those will get answered in time, but right now we're seeing natural volatility in a new market for investors and creators.

This article represents the opinion of the writer, who may disagree with the official recommendation position of a Motley Fool premium advisory service. Were motley! Questioning an investing thesis -- even one of our own -- helps us all think critically about investing and make decisions that help us become smarter, happier, and richer.

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Why Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin Are All Down Big Today - Motley Fool

Bitcoin's recent breakout likely has legs, but investors should be cautious with how much of the cryptocurrency they own, says Inside Edge Capital Management founder Todd Gordon.

"I think it should be a part of client portfolios, but a small part," Gordon told CNBC's "Trading Nation" after bitcoin hit a new all-time high on Tuesday. "We actually don't have resistance until about [$125,000] to $150,000, so I do think it'll get there."

Roughly 3% of Gordon's portfolio is invested in various digital assets. With Apple looking into crypto technology, U.S. mining on the rise as a result of China's ban and the expansion of the metaverse, the space has several upside catalysts despite its "amazing" volatility, he said.

"I'm bullish, but volatility is so extreme, please be careful and understand what you're dealing with here," Gordon said.

Though Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell helped spark the recent rally by saying he was not considering a crypto ban, the Fed could also become one of bitcoin's biggest headwinds, Chantico Global founder and CEO Gina Sanchez said in the same interview.

"As the economy continues to reopen and the numbers start to heat up, at some point we will see the Fed stepping back" from its massive monetary support, reducing liquidity in the markets and potentially stifling crypto performance, Sanchez said. She is also the chief market strategist at Lido Advisors.

Global central banks looking into creating their own digital currencies could also pose a threat, she warned.

"Central bank digital currencies have the potential to have an edge when it comes to regulation and that's the big unknown right now with crypto," Sanchez said. "It can create big winners and losers."

All things considered, she agreed with Gordon that caution was key.

"If you take a position, it should be a very small one," she said.

Disclosure: Gordon owns bitcoin.

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Bitcoin could head as high as $150,000, trader says, but there's a catch - CNBC

Selim Korkutata | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

The Securities and Exchange Commission has until Nov. 14 to give a thumbs up or thumbs down to the VanEck Bitcoin ETF, the first exchange-traded fund in a long line of "spot" bitcoin ETFs that have applications in front of the regulator.

The SEC has delayed a decision on the application twice before, but now that a maximum 240-day review period is over, they must decide.

The ETF and bitcoin community are not optimistic.

"I think there is literally zero chance of passage in the next three years," Dave Nadig, director of research at ETF Trends, told me.

That pessimism is born out of two developments:

1) Key regulators, particularly SEC Chair Gary Gensler, have indicated they are reluctant to expand crypto offerings, particularly a "spot" bitcoin ETF, unless there is legislation clearly defining which regulatory agencies have control over the various crypto spaces, such as crypto exchanges; and

2) Legislation tucked into the recent infrastructure bill will place onerous reporting requirements on crypto.

Crypto investors got their first splash of cold water earlier this year when Gensler spoke at the Aspen Security Forum on Aug. 3, where he noted the need for more investor protection around the crypto space. He said, "Given these important protections, I look forward to the staff's review of such filings, particularly if those are limited to these CME-traded bitcoin futures."

Sure enough, Gensler soon approved the first bitcoin futures-based ETF, the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF, which began trading on Oct.19.A second bitcoin futures ETF, the Valkyrie Bitcoin Strategy ETF, began trading on Oct. 22.

But the futures market operates in a "regulated" space.Bitcoin and bitcoin exchanges do not. Gensler has signaled his reluctance to approve securities that are not operating in a "regulated" space.

While the SEC approved bitcoin futures ETFs, claiming they existed in the "regulated" futures market, they seem to have no interest in more exotic products around bitcoin, as Matt Tuttle found out.

Tuttle, who manages Tuttle Capital, had applied for a short bitcoin futures ETF, which would have been allowed to go short bitcoin futures and the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust.

The SEC asked him to withdraw the application.

"The basic theme [from the SEC] was, they don't want anything out of the ordinary, they didn't want inverse or levered bitcoin products," Tuttle told me.

He is also pessimistic on the chances of a "spot" bitcoin ETF approval.

"My guess is it will be a while," he told me. "There is nothing from Gensler that indicates he is getting more comfortable with a pure-play ETF, so we should assume it will be a punt for now."

Crypto enthusiasts are also worried about the implications of the new infrastructure bill that recently passed Congress. President Joe Biden is expected to sign the measure.

Tucked into the massive bill are two provisions that affect crypto investors.The first would require that any person who receives a digital asset worth $10,000 or more to gather information about the person who sent the asset and fill out a tax form describing the transaction to the Internal Revenue Service.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong called the provision "a disaster if I understand it. Criminal felony statute that could freeze a lot of healthy crypto behavior (like DeFi)."

A second provision would redefine "broker" to include "any person who (for consideration) is responsible for regularly providing any service effectuating transfers of digital assets on behalf of another person." This would make many people working in the crypto space a "broker" and "would subject them to nonsensical and potentially ruinous broker tax reporting requirements," according to Will Wilkinson, who writes the Model Citizen blog.

Michelle Bond, a former senior counsel at the SEC who is now CEO of the Association for Digital Asset Markets, a group of firms in the digital marketplace, said that these new laws were a clear negative for the development of crypto.

Though the law is ready to be signed by Biden, Bond is optimistic changes could still be made. The provisions don't go into effect until 2024, which gives the crypto industry time to gather their forces.

"It's not over yet," she told me."I think this will be a much longer-term thing." She is hopeful there could be "legislative fixes" next year and that "the industry will be able to provide comment for the rulemaking provisions."

Are crypto enthusiasts deluding themselves that a bitcoin ETF will be forthcoming?

"I think pessimism about a bitcoin ETF should extend into 2022 and beyond," Mark Palmer, an analyst who covers the fintech and digital assets space for BTIG told me.

"Gensler has made it clear that a bitcoin ETF would have no regulated entity backing it up," Palmer said. "I don't think the market has fully grasped that fact."

"We need more clarity around the crypto space," he said. "There is a hope Congress will provide clarity, but we think that is highly unlikely.The other is a jurisdictional question, whether it should be regulated by the SEC or the [Commodity Futures Trading Commission]."

While bitcoin is a commodity and thus under the control of the CFTC, a bitcoin ETF is a security that would come under the jurisdiction of the SEC.Palmer believes Gensler is unlikely to make any moves without clear regulatory authority over other parts of the crypto ecosystem, such as exchanges.

"Gensler's authority is unclear and he will be constrained until he gets greater clarity," Palmer said.

Bottom line:It could be a long wait for a bitcoin ETF.

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Decision time looms for the first spot bitcoin ETF. Heres why an actual launch could be years away - CNBC

Is bitcoin the new gold?

Not according to two of the world's leading gold authorities, but the cryptocurrency's rise is a phenomenon they can't help but acknowledge.

Bitcoin has outpaced gold substantially year to date, with the digital coin up nearly 133% and the yellow metal down about 4%.

The divergence calls into question whether investors are opting for bitcoin over gold as a hedge against rising inflation, but the strategist behind the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund begs to differ.

"I think it is quite possible for these two assets to coexist quite happily in the market because they do completely different jobs," George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street's SPDR ETFs, told CNBC's "ETF Edge" on Monday.

The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), the biggest ETF in the world backed by physical gold, will enter its 17th year in the public markets on Nov. 18. It is down almost 4.5% in 2021 and up around 281% since its 2004 launch.

"The historical promise of gold to investors has always been twofold: one, that over the long term and I stress this, over the long term gold can improve your returns and it can also help to reduce your volatility," Milling-Stanley said.

While gold has a track record of improving risk-adjusted returns over longer time periods "the holy grail of any asset allocator" digital coins carry more risk, increasing volatility and making returns subject to their often-drastic short-term swings, the strategist said.

That's why lasting inflation will likely draw gold back into favor, he said.

"Gold is a very good preserver of purchasing power during periods of sustained high inflation, by which I mean many months with inflation at over 5% a year. In those kind of periods, which we last saw sustained in the 1970s, then gold gave annual capital appreciation equivalent to about 16% a year or a real return of around 11%," he said.

"Right now, we've had inflation around 5% for maybe three or four months with everybody telling us it's transitory, it's going to pass, so I'm not at all surprised that gold hasn't responded to these inflation numbers just yet."

Bitcoin and other digital assets may be siphoning some capital away from gold, but it's too early to say if it's because they successfully hedge against inflation, GraniteShares founder and CEO Will Rhind said in the same interview.

The GraniteShares Gold Trust (BAR) is the fifth-largest gold ETF on the market by assets under management, according to ETF Database, and is also down around 4% this year.

"With the market cap of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, absolutely, they are attracting capital," Rhind said. "To the extent that they're attracting capital away from the gold market, though, I don't know."

"The reason why people are buying bitcoin and cryptocurrencies at the moment is highly speculative. That's a complete risk-on situation," he said. "It's less defensive in my mind. The reason why people are buying gold at this point is much more defensive. It's around the inflation story. It's around the long-term preservation of capital or purchasing power."

Gold prices hovered near two-month highs Tuesday after the Labor Department reported its producer price index rose 8.6% year over year in October, the highest annual rate in more than 10 years.

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Bitcoin vs. gold: Two leading authorities on the precious metal unpack the inflation hedge battle - CNBC