Category Archives: Bitcoin

Ever since the dot-com and housing bubbles popped in 2000 and 2008, spotting bubbles has become a national obsession. Investors have spotted bubbles in bonds, credit, equities, gold -- you name it -- over the last several years.

I wouldnt use the B-word to describe any of those investments -- yet. In fact, I wouldnt even nominate any of them for Most Likely to Bubble Over. I would give that distinction to a certain cryptocurrency that is quickly making its name and fortune: Bitcoin.

Bitcoin has all the attributes of a bubble in the making. First, its radically new. Its a digital payment system that allows users anywhere in the world to transact directly without interference from intermediaries, governments, regulators or central banks -- at least for now. Transactions are administered by a decentralized network of computers, much like the internet.

In his book about the 17th-century tulip bubble in Holland, "Tulipmania," British journalist Mike Dash points out, It is impossible to comprehend the tulip mania without understanding just how different tulips were from every other flower known to horticulturists in the 17th century. The same could be said about the internet in the 1990s and about digital currency today.

Second, Bitcoin is shrouded in secrecy. Buyers and sellers of Bitcoin can trade anonymously, which makes the digital currency a favorite of criminals and hackers demanding ransom. Its origins are shrouded in mystery. Its creator goes by the name of Satoshi Nakamoto, but it's unclear who that person is or if it's even one person. That, too, is reminiscent of another bubble. At the height of Englands South Sea Bubble in 1720, one company floated shares "For carrying-on an undertaking of great advantage but no-one to know what it is." Of course, that didnt stop investors from throwing money at the company.

Riding the Wave

In 1720, share prices of the South Sea Company rose 400 percent in three months and then collapsed just as quickly

Source: ICF working paper, New Evidence on the First Financial Bubble by Rik Frehen, Will Goetzmann and Geert Rouwenhorst Note: European date format.

Third, Bitcoin has no value other than what a buyer is willing to pay for it, which makes it susceptible to the argument that underlies all bubbles. Namely, that any price is appropriate. But theres already reason to worry that Bitcoin's price is excessive. An investment in Bitcoin has returned a breathtaking 351 percent annually since its inception in July 2010 through Tuesday. To put that in perspective, an investment of $100 in Bitcoin from the beginning would be worth close to $3 million today. Its not easy to justify that kind of return for any investment.

Digital Gold

The price of Bitcoin is up 3 million percent since July 2010

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin is similar to other currencies and commodities such as gold, oil, potatoes or even tulips in that its intrinsic value is difficult -- if not impossible -- to separate from its price. But there are governments standing behind currencies and reliable currency markets for exchange. And with commodities, investors have something to hold at the end of the transaction. Bitcoin feels more speculative because its just digital ephemera.

That isnt true for all investments. Stockholders are entitled to a share of a companys assets, earnings and dividends, the value of which can be estimated independent of the stocks price. The same can be said about a bonds payments of principal and interest.

This distinction between price and value is what allowed many observers to warn that internet stocks were absurdly priced in the late 1990s, or that mortgage bonds werent as safe as investors assumed during the housing bubble. A similar warning about Bitcoin isnt possible.

During the dot-com craze, Warren Buffett was asked why he didnt invest in technology. He famously answered that he didnt understand tech stocks. But what he meant was that no one understood them, and he was right. Why else would anyone buy the NASDAQ 100 Index when its price-to-earnings ratio was more than 500 times -- a laughably low earnings yield of 0.2 percent -- which is where it traded at the height of the bubble in March 2000.

Internet Gold

The NASDAQ 100 Index's spectacular rise and fall within five years embodied the dot-com bubble

Source: Bloomberg

Thinking back on investors credulity during the last two bubbles, I cant help but wonder if buyers of Bitcoin understand what theyre invested in. They would be wise to ask themselves that same question.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg LP and its owners.

To contact the author of this story: Nir Kaissar in Washington at nkaissar1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Daniel Niemi at dniemi1@bloomberg.net

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Bitcoin Balloons on Overheated Air - Bloomberg

Forbes

Bitcoin Is An Asset, Not A Currency Forbes Over the past year and a half Bitcoin has been on a spectacular run, rising in value 140% in 2016 and now an additional 49% in just the past month. This surge in value has invigorated Bitcoin backers convinced this boost in value makes Bitcoin a more ... Why has bitcoin's value soared?Financial Times Despite RBI warning, 2500 Indians investing in Bitcoins daily. Here is all you should know about its usage & dangersEconomic Times Bitcoin's popular design is being exploited for theft and fraudPhys.Org NewsFactor Network -Metro -Trinidad & Tobago Express all 40 news articles »

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Bitcoin Is An Asset, Not A Currency - Forbes

Online cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex announced May 12 they are resuming fiat withdrawals for specific customer profiles in certain jurisdictions.

Read more:Research Paper Suggests Bitcoin Volatility Will Match Fiat in Two Years

They are processing these requests in descending order for customers who intend to withdraw alarge quantity of funds.These withdrawals will beon a one-time basis until more options for the company arise.

The exchange also mentioned they started moving many of their funds outside of Taiwan. Between this action and other channels opening up to the company, Bitfinex noticed the price spread between them and other exchanges begin to narrow. Their press release also said,

As noted in our prior announcement, US correspondent banks continue to block international wires. USD, however, continues to flow domestically in Taiwan and other channels have been slowly ramping up as evidenced by the price spreads narrowing between Bitfinex and other exchanges.

However, the press release stated for time being the company can only process transactions over $50,000 until more channels for transactions become available and viable.

This news comes after several weeks of halted fiat currency withdrawals at Bitfinex, which have caused fear and doubt to spread across the bitcoin ecosystem.Many actors in the crypto-space have compared the price spread engendered by Bitfinexs policies as similar to what happened at Mt. Gox prior to its insolvency and subsequent fall from grace.

Jamie Redman, writing for bitcoin.com, echoed these sentiments: Traders dont feel confident in the market because of the 2013 Mt Gox scandal which shook the bitcoin community to the corePrice spreads began to happen slightly then picked up when Mt Gox suspended USD withdrawals.

Nonetheless, the price spreads are starting to balance out alongwith Bitfinexsannouncement. At the time of writing this, Bitfinex was sitting at $1812, with most other exchanges hovering around the mid to upper $1700 range.

These prices, however, do not mean that there are no bubbles propping up the bitcoin cap or price or artificially incitinga bull market. There could be a market run, but no one can guess whether that is true or not. Most of the time, market trends are impossible to predict. All the variables that influence value and price change regularly and rapidly.

Nonetheless, it appears that Bitfinex is poised to get their exchange running properly. They promised customers they are solvent, and said they merelyencountered legal and technical difficulties. Their mission is still to allow the fluid exchange of currencies across disparate crypto-spaces.

Bitfinex thanked their customers for the dedication and patience they have shown while the company tries to overcome a myriad of hurdles. They said,

We are deeply grateful for the patience and forbearance that our customers and shareholders have shown us as we work to restore normal operations. We apologize for the inconvenience and look forward to resolving these problems in the coming weeks.

What do you think about Bitfinex and these price differences? Let us know in the comments section below.

Images courtesy of Shutterstock and BTC Report app

Do you have an easy and fast way to calculate your bitcoin holdings? Check out our tools section.

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Bitfinex Now Processing One Time USD Withdrawals - Bitcoin News

The WannaCry ransomware made on average $23,333 a day. Monday was its most successful payday.

In just four days, the WannaCry ransomware reeled in enough money to buy 8,750 servings of avocado toast (or maybe a modest house, if you're into that sort of thing). And now the ransom has doubled.

The global ransomware plague started infecting computers on Friday, abusing an exploit discovered by the NSA that was leaked to the public by the Shadow Brokers hacker group. It breached computers through phishing emails and then spread through networks using a Server Messaging Block vulnerability on outdated Windows computers.

Before it was accidentally (and only temporarily) shut down, WannaCry had locked down more than 200,000 computers in more than 150 countries, affecting banks, universities and hospitals, with a demand that the targets pay $300 worth of bitcoins by May 20. On Tuesday, the ransom doubled from $300 to $600, and the tally of WannaCry victims had reached more than 374,000 computers.

In the last 72 hours, more than 261 people have decided they would rather pay the ransom than lose their important files forever, according to trackers analyzing the three known bitcoin wallets. (You can track the amount yourself here.) A majority of the payments came on Monday, just hours before the first deadline passed and the ransom rose.

In total, the hackers behind WannaCry made $69,535 by Tuesday morning, as payments continued to flow in. While the original ransomware has been slowed down, patched variations of the malware -- pointing to the same bitcoin wallets -- have appeared, this time without a kill switch.

If every ransom ends up being paid, the hackers could make more than $1 billion from the breach. One risk analysis firm estimates that WannaCry could cost the world's economy $4 billion in damages and losses.

It's unclear who is behind the massive attack, but researchers have found clues in the code linking the ransomware to North Korea.

First published May 16 at 9:19 a.m. PT. Updated at 11:52 a.m.: Added details about the potential economic loss from WannaCry.

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Watch the WannaCry bitcoin ransom trickle in - CNET

Bitcoin is in the news again after Friday's worldwide ransomware attack. The malicious software locks down victims' computers and refuses to grant themaccess to their files unless they agree to pay at least $300 in bitcoin. Which may have you wondering: What is bitcoin? And why do the attackers want payment in that currency?

Here's a refresher on bitcoin and how it's connected to the ransomware threat.

What is bitcoin?

Bitcoin is a kind of digital currency. You can buy it with dollars or euros, just like you can trade any other currency. You store it in an online wallet. And with that wallet, you can spend bitcoin online and in the physical world for goods and services. Even PayPal supports bitcoin.

And, of course, bitcoin has a valuation, which you may have heard aboutbecause bitcoin's price has fluctuated up and down.

[How to protect yourself from the global ransomware attack]

What's different about bitcoin?

Usually, if you pay for something on the Internet, you use a credit or debit card. That card is connected to information about you, such as your name and billing address.

You can use bitcoin the same way, but unlike with a credit card, the transactions you make with the currency are completely anonymous. They can't be used to identify you personally. Instead, whenever you trade in bitcoin, you use a "private key" associated with your wallet to generate a bit of code called an address that is then publicly associated with your transaction but with no personal identifying information. In that way, every transactionis recorded and securely signed in an open ledger that anyone can read and double-check.

So you can use bitcoin to protect your privacy. Is that why the WannaCry attackers picked it as a form of payment?

Possibly. Bitcoin has certainly gained prominence in the news mediaas a technology that can facilitate crime. But even though the identities of people in a bitcoin transaction may be hidden, the public ledgerhas increasingly helped law enforcement trace the movement of bitcoins from place to place.

The Justice Department has successfully prosecuted online criminal operations that used bitcoin.In 2013, the government arrested Ross Ulbricht, the founder of a major underground drug market, and seized more than $3.5 million worth of bitcoin. Two undercover FBI agents associated with the investigation werelater accused of stealing some of thatcurrency.

Could law enforcement wind up doing something similar with WannaCry?

The government is already investigating. On Monday, White House homeland security adviser Tom Bossert told reporters that attribution the process of figuring out who was responsible for the crime is generally pretty tough incomputer attacks. Often, the attackers are located beyond the reach of U.S. law enforcement or have shrouded their activities behind multiple layers of security. But, Bossert said, I don't want to say that we have no clues.

How much money have the attackers collected?

So far, it looks to be about $55,000, according to a bot designed by the news site Quartz that is tracking the amount of money in the attackers' wallets.

Considering that Europol, the European Union law enforcement agency,has said that more than 200,000 computers have been infected with the malware, that doesn't seem like a lot of money.Still, the value of a single bitcoin has risen steadily in recent years. Hours before WannaCry began spreading last week, the price of one bitcoin hit an all-time high of $1,830. Some analysts predictthat it could break $3,000 by year's end although the price fell by $200 after the attack was revealed.

In light of how cheaply and easily hackers can push out ransomware, winning even a handful of bitcoins and holding onto them for a while could make the cyber-thieves a large sum of money.

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What you need to know about bitcoin after the WannaCry ransomware attack - Washington Post

In the past few weeks,a widespread and coordinated international cyberattack seized control of hundreds of thousands of computers in 150 countries. Those affected by the cyberattack would see a window pop up on theirscreen telling them that their files were inaccessible, then demanding payment of a ransom lest their files bedeleted. But the ransomers in this attack werent demanding gold bars, a parachute or sacks of unmarked bills delivered to a secure location. They wanted bitcoins.

Bitcoin iswhat is known as a cryptocurrency, a digital currencythat is distributed without any kind of centralized bank. The mechanism of distribution is complicated you can read a full rundown but basically bitcoin relies onusers distributed computing power to ensure the viability of transactions.Running the software to keep track of transactions takes resources, and users who do so are motivated by the prospectof earning bitcoins in exchange for theircomputers assistance in keeping track of abitcoin ledger.

Boosters ofbitcoin see the currency ashaving many strengths compared to regular money: Cryptocurrencies have no central bank managing and issuing them and their use remainsmostly anonymous when transactions occur. (This latter point is arguable, as Ill discuss momentarily.) And unlike regularmoney, which usually moves across the world via banks or financial agencies, cryptocurrencies can move around through digital wires unhindered by processing fees or taxes.

The perceived strengths of bitcoin as an alternative to fiat money that it moves around pseudonymously and thus is much harder for government officialsto track or seize accounts isalso its weaknesses. Indeed, these characteristics have made bitcoin the currency of choice for ransomware hackers as well as illicit online marketplaces like AlphaBay (and the now-shuttered Silk Road) allowingbuyers and sellers to trade black-market goods like drugs and credit card numbers alongside quotidian, traditional online marketplace goods such as clothes and books. Yet the ethereal aspects of bitcoin you dont need to store itin a bank andit doesnt exist on paper but ismerely a string of numbers means its the ideal tool for a digital ransom.

I think [bitcoins] association with malware and ransomware signals that it has a problem because bitcoin investors and developers and pardon this terrible term bitvangelists dont want that,Julian Gottlieb, an associate professor of politics at the University of Oregon who studies cryptocurrencies, told Salon.

Institutional investment gives cryptocurrencies like bitcoin a patina of legitimacy, Gottlieb explained. In Japan right now, because of some economic stagnation, theres been an effort for investors to diversify their portfolios, and theyve been encouraging people to diversity portfolios and invest in bitcoin, he said.

The value of a single bitcoin, currently about $1,700, rises and falls depending on how many people invest in the currency meaning how many people buybitcoin in exchange forreal money.

So is bitcoin to blame for enabling these digital ransomers? Many bitcoin enthusiasts scoff at this idea. Becky Metivier, in a blog for Sage Data Security, argued that bitcoin is not to blame for ransomware. Metivier pointed out that poor security policies and practices are just as much to blame for ransomware as encryption and bitcoin.

Metivier wrote, Because of its association with ransomware, bitcoins benefits have been obscured by a cloud of misconception.

Part of that misconception is the notion that bitcoin use is really anonymous. Because all transactions are recorded in the blockchain basically an ever-growing ledger theres some ability to track bitcoin transactions.Bitcoin is pseudonymous, not anonymous, saysCharles Bovaird, lead markets writer for CoinDesk, a cryptocurrency news site. The cryptocurrencys transactions involve transfers betweenbitcoin addresses, which arestrings of letters and numbers.Every time a bitcoin transaction takes place, it gets recorded on the blockchain, where it is linkedto the addresses involved.

Added Bovaird: Over time, a bitcoin address can develop user history. If one of these addresses is associated with several transactions,it makes it easier to track the user of that address.

Outside of enthusiasts, who share information about cryptocurrencies in many different online forums and news sites, the average person might hear about bitcoin only when its in the news for something like a cyberattack or ransomware story. Bitcoin has shown its promise for a lot of illicit activities, like hacking for pay, large-scale heists online, said Gottlieb. The semi-anonymity of the technology does lend itself to that.

Gottlieb sees a problem in the way that the media industry covers bitcoin:Since the currencyis decentralized, no central voice candefend bitcoin when a news story portrays it in a negative light.

If Chase Bank were hacked, they would have a PR community, Gottlieb said. But [bitcoin] is a fractionalized community; theres no way to respond to something like this en masse.

One might draw a similarity to the Occupy Wall Street movement: Because ofthe inherently decentralized nature of bitcoin transactions, one bad apple say, a man climbing a public art structure and refusing to dismountat a protest reflects poorlyon the entire organization, with no point person in the PR department to run damage control.

For his part, Gottlieb sees bitcoin as having more populist possibilities that extend beyond itspotential as a tool for cybercriminals. The same thing that makes it possible for hackers to hold digital assets hostage and extract wealth from people with bitcoin also allows it to be a potential source of power for activists in authoritarian regimes, he said. It can keep people anonymous, protect their identity.

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Recent ransomware attacks raise the question: Is bitcoin only for cybercriminals? - Salon

New York Times

All About Bitcoin, the Mysterious Digital Currency - The New York ... New York Times What is Bitcoin and where did it come from? Here is information about the electronic currency that hackers behind the global ransomware attack are demanding. AP Explains: What is bitcoin? A look at the digital currencyABC News all 96 news articles »

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All About Bitcoin, the Mysterious Digital Currency - The New York ... - New York Times

Bitcoin Price Drops After "WannaCry" Ransomware Taint Investopedia Bitcoin price has undergone a price revision following the WannaCry cyber-attack. Current speculation is that this is related to the fact that the attackers have requested that the ransom be paid in cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. Bitcoin has enjoyed ... and more »

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Bitcoin Price Drops After "WannaCry" Ransomware Taint - Investopedia

WCry, the National Security Agency exploit-powered ransomware worm that began spreading worldwide on Friday, had reportedly affected hundreds of thousands of computers before the weekend, but the malware had only brought in about $20,000 in ransom payments. However, as the world returned to the office on Monday, those payments have been rapidly mounting, based on tracking data for the three Bitcoin wallets tied by researchers to the malware. As of noon Eastern Time on Monday, payments had reached an estimated $71,000 since May 12. So far, 263 payments have been made to the three wallets linked to the code in the malware.

The payment history for each wallet shows individual transactions ranging mostly between 0.16 and 0.34 Bitcoin (approximately $300 and $600, respectively), with the number of larger payments increasing over time. Different ransom amounts have been presented to victims, and the price of Bitcoin has climbed dramatically over the past week, causing some variation in the payment sizes.

According to researchers at Symantec Security Response, tracking ransom transactions would have been much more difficult if not for a bug in code that was supposed to create an individual bitcoin wallet for each victim:

Because the code failed, it defaulted over the three preset wallets. This, along with the "killswitch" code that was left in the initial wave of WCry malware, may be an indication that the malware wasn't yet fully tested when it was launched.

Excerpt from:
WCry ransomware worm's Bitcoin take tops $70k as its spread continues - Ars Technica

Financial Times

Bitcoin's surge fuels fears of asset bubble Financial Times An increase in initial coin offerings (ICOs) unregulated issuances of crypto coins where investors can raise money in bitcoin or other crypto currencies is fuelling the market and drawing attention from lawyers and financial professionals. Many ... Bitcoin is Pioneer, Pioneers Are Shot in the Back: Jeff Pulver on Ethereum, ICO & MoreCoinTelegraph The strange mix of reasons why bitcoin has soared to all-time recordsQuartz all 5 news articles »

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Bitcoin's surge fuels fears of asset bubble - Financial Times