Category Archives: Bitcoin

According to countdown statistics based on the average block generation time of around ten minutes, progress toward the next Bitcoin block reward halving has surpassed 60%. However, while most halving countdown clocks leverage the ten-minute average, the countdown leveraging the most current block intervals of around 7:65 minutes shows the halving could occur in 2023.

Just recently, at block height 757,214, mined on October 5, 2022, Bitcoins total hashrate tapped an all-time high (ATH) at 321.15 exahash per second (EH/s). Lately, block intervals have been faster than usual and well under the ten-minute average.

The speed at which the 2,016 blocks are found in between difficulty adjustments determines the difficulty and current block intervals suggest a large difficulty jump is in the cards. Now, prior to the next difficulty rise, the hashrate has continued to remain strong and block times at the time of writing are around 7:65 minutes.

The next mining difficulty retarget is scheduled to happen on or around October 10, 2022. If block times remain faster than usual even after the retarget, the protocols block reward halving could very well happen in 2023. Statistics from bitcoinsensus.com indicate that at 7:65 minutes per block interval, the halving could take place on or around December 19, 2023.

Bitcoinsensus.com further shows the halving time based on the average ten-minute rule which shows the halving will occur on May 1, 2024. Most countdown calculators apply the average ten-minute rule, and other data points suggest the halving could occur on April 20, 2024.

Either way, the progress toward the next halving is still more than 60% complete, and when it occurs, bitcoin miner rewards will be reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC post halving. Despite the high speed now, miners could easily slow down after the meaningful difficulty increase on October 10 is recorded and if BTC prices remain low.

This, in turn, would push the halving date back to the 2024 range and after all, theres still well over a years worth of BTC block subsidies to mine. A lot can change. According to a recent blog post from Blocksbridge Consulting, the difficulty change and low price range could give bitcoin miners a headache from loss of profits.

Bitcoins daily mining revenue per PH/s is currently around $80. If the difficulty rises 13% on Monday and bitcoins price stays at $19.5K, the daily revenue would decrease to $70 per (petahash) PH/s, Blocksbridge Consultings Miner Weekly issue #17 notes. That would cause mining companies to mine at all-time low revenues on a daily basis, even lower than what we saw during the summer following the May 2020 halving.

The blog post adds:

Unless bitcoins price breaks the $20,000 barrier, those who employ older-generation machines or have bloated mining operations will face an even tougher time ahead.

Viabtcs Viawallet halving metrics show that eight blockchains are expected to see reward halvings or whats known as reward reductions. Dash expects a reward reduction on June 20, 2023, as rewards will shrink from 2.76 DASH to 2.56 DASH. Other reduction events and reward halvings will stem from blockchains that include BCH, BSV, LTC, ETC, ZEC, and ZEN.

What do you think about the Bitcoin networks progress toward the next halving exceeding 60%? Let us know what you think about this subject in the comments section below.

Jamie Redman is the News Lead at Bitcoin.com News and a financial tech journalist living in Florida. Redman has been an active member of the cryptocurrency community since 2011. He has a passion for Bitcoin, open-source code, and decentralized applications. Since September 2015, Redman has written more than 6,000 articles for Bitcoin.com News about the disruptive protocols emerging today.

Image Credits: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Wiki Commons

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It is not a direct offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation or endorsement of any products, services, or companies. Bitcoin.com does not provide investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice. Neither the company nor the author is responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods or services mentioned in this article.

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Progress Toward Bitcoin's Halving Is 60% Complete, Block Times Suggest Reduction Could Happen Next Year Mining Bitcoin News - Bitcoin News

Bitcoin Cash's BCH/USD price has decreased 3.08% over the past 24 hours to $114.18, continuing its downward trend over the past week of -1.0%, moving from $115.71 to its current price.

The chart below compares the price movement and volatility for Bitcoin Cash over the past 24 hours (left) to its price movement over the past week (right). The gray bands are Bollinger Bands, measuring the volatility for both the daily and weekly price movements. The wider the bands are, or the larger the gray area is at any given moment, the larger the volatility.

The trading volume for the coin has fallen 5.0% over the past week, moving in tandem, directionally, with the overall circulating supply of the coin, which has decreased 0.47%. This brings the circulating supply to 19.20 million, which makes up an estimated 91.42% of its max supply of 21.00 million. According to our data, the current market cap ranking for BCH is #32 at $2.20 billion.

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This article was generated by Benzinga's automated content engine and reviewed by an editor.

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Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Cash Down More Than 3% Within 24 hours - Bitcoin Cash (BCH/USD) - Benzinga

The value of Huobis native token has shot up around 18% in recent trading, following the news of fresh investment in the Seychelles-based crypto exchange.

Huobis founder Leon Li Lin recently sold off his stake in the company to About Capital, a Hong Kong-based asset management firm, which was accompanied by the promise of more investment.

According to a blog post on the companys website, the move will see Huobi get a sufficient capital injection into its margin and risk provision fund, as well as a global strategic advisory board, joined by leading industry figures.

The acquisition will also reportedly see the company undergo a series of new international brand promotion and business expansion initiatives, with no specific mention of what this entails.

Though the acquisition will mean that Leon Li Lin will lose control over the firm, the announcement maintained the move will have no impact on Huobis core operation and business management teams.

Despite not being available for users based in the U.S. or China, Huobi is still one of the most popular cryptocurrency exchanges worldwide.

According to CoinGecko, Huobi is presently the eighth-most largest crypto exchange by 24-hour trading volume, with more than $465 million in normalized volume.

About Capital was by no means the only party interested in acquiring Lins stake from him.

Recent reports suggest that FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried and Tron founder Justin Sun were among the interested potential buyers, with the valuation for Lis slice said to be between $2 billion to $3 billion.

Despite successfully winning the interest of investors, it hasnt all been smooth sailing for the exchange in recent months.

HUSD, a stablecoin offered by the firm that is supposed to maintain parity with the U.S. dollar, at one point dropped almost 15% from its intended $1 peg. The firm maintained that the issue was caused by a short-term liquidity problem due to a time difference in banking hours, rather than any deeper financial instability.

Huobi has also been trimming down the selection of tokens it has on offer as part of plans to better fit in with global regulatory frameworks. It declined to comment any further on the reasons for the removals.

These tokens included Dash (DSH), Decred (DCR), Firo (FIRO), Monero (XMR), Verge (XVG), Zcash (ZEC), and Horizen (ZEN).

Disclaimer

The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.

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Native Token of Bitcoin Exchange Huobi Jumps 18% Amid Fresh Investment - Decrypt

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The crypto market fell with stocks after the highly anticipated jobs report showed the labor market is still tight and could keep the Federal Reserve on course to raise rates aggressively.

The price of bitcoin fell 3.3% to $19,380.74, according to Coin Metrics. Ether fell 2.7% to $1,322.40.

On Friday the Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added 263,000 jobs in September, compared with the Dow Jones estimate of 275,000, and that the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% from 3.7% in the previous month.

"The jobs report points to no change of tune on the horizon for the Fed, so we continue to expect firm interest rates which also adds pressure to crypto markets," said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at BMO Wealth Management.

Cryptocurrencies' correlation with stocks has weakened in recent weeks but remains high.

"Crypto looks to be at an important technical juncture here where it looks like it's trying to carve out a bottom, but feeling heavy," he added. "I still think it, more likely than not, breaks to the downside given rising interest rates and risk-off sentiment, but so far it's a surprising effort to hold the line."

The market has been in a good-news-is-bad-news holding pattern with the Federal Reserve laser focused on bring down inflation. While the new data shows strength in the U.S. economy, that could make the Fed more likely to continue with its aggressive rate hiking plan (whereas investors are hoping for a pause or a pivot), which puts pressure on stocks and weighs on crypto.

"Crypto has been the hardest hit by rate hike fears this year," said Callie Cox, U.S. investment analyst at eToro. "It makes sense many crypto projects don't have cashflows, so people invest in them for what they could be, not necessarily what value they're providing right now. When rates rise, the future value of a dollar falls."

Cox also highlighted the resilience of crypto assets in the second half of the year, noting that while stocks have revisited new lows with the spike in bond yields, bitcoin and ether haven't done the same. Bitcoin has been trading in a tight range of between $18,000 and $25,000 since falling to its lows of the year in June.

"To me, that's progress in this bear market," Cox said. "Crypto prices could be telling us the rate anxiety could be at a turning point. Crypto's strength is also a good indicator of frothiness in the market. It seems like the brutal growth selloff has finally washed out all the weak hands."

"Bitcoin is also far below its highs too," she added. "But stability is a step in the right direction."

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Bitcoin falls after the jobs report, but crypto prices show relative stability - CNBC

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In this episode of Bitcoin, Explained, hosts Aaron van Wirdum and Sjors Provoost discuss the upcoming Bitcoin Core major release, Bitcoin Core 24.0.

The Bitcoin Core project produces a new major release of its software roughly every six months. The 24th major release is currently in its release candidate phase, which means that it is being tested and could technically be released any day now (though this phase will probably last a few more weeks). In the episode, van Wirdum and Provoost discuss seven of the most notable changes included in Bitcoin Core 24.0.

This includes a change to how nodes download blocks when they sync with the network. While previous Bitcoin Core versions started by downloading only block headers to make sure that the blocks they download have sufficient proof-of-work, Bitcoin Core 24.0 nodes will initially not store these block headers in order to prevent a certain type of resource exhaustion attack. Van Wirdum and Provoost explain that this should eventually also allow for the removal of any checkpoints in the Bitcoin Core codebase.

They go on to explain that Bitcoin Core 24.0 also includes an added option for users to apply full replace-by-fee (RBF) logic. Until now, Bitcoin Core nodes applied the first seen rule, which meant that conflicting transactions wouldnt be accepted in the node's memory pool (mempool) and forwarded to peers. With this upcoming release, users can choose to make their nodes accept and forward conflicting transactions if they include a higher fee than (the) earlier transaction(s) they conflict with.

Further upgrades discussed by van Wirdum and Provoost include a tool to migrate legacy wallets to descriptor wallets, initial miniscript support, default use of RBF when creating transactions, an improved unspent transaction output (UTXO) selection algorithm which randomizes change output amounts for extra privacy and a new send all function to spend a particular (set of) UTXO(s) in full.

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The Upcoming Release Of Bitcoin Core 24.0 - Bitcoin Magazine

Bitcoin, Ethereum Talking Points

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Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to tread water above their YTD lows as economic data continues to allow for the Federal Reserve to remain aggressive in its battle against inflation. Nonfarm payrolls data on Friday showed that the US labor market continues to remain hot, albeit there are some signs of cooling. With the labor portion of the Feds mandate in check, Fed officials have indicated that will remain fully committed to returning inflation to target. As hawkish Fed policy shows no sign of abating, the outlook remains bleak for risk assets.

Despite the recent surge in US Treasury yields and collapse in equities, Bitcoin and Ethereum have both managed to keep their heads above water. While equities have pierced their June lows, Bitcoin and Ethereum have yet to break their respective lows. This could all change next week, as Thursdays CPI print could represent a major volatility event. Following the prior CPI release on September 13, risk markets tanked as inflation metrics increased.

US Economic Calendar

Courtesy of the DailyFX Economic Calendar

Despite the Friday rout in risk assets, Bitcoin continues to remain perky above recent swing lows. Price appears to be coiling around the key psychological level at $20,000, as price as consolidated into a tight range following the September 14th CPI print. Bulls have forcefully defended the $18500 area, while bears have prevented any break beyond $20400 from gaining steam. Price has notably made a series of higher lows this month, which offers support to the idea that something larger may be at play here. If markets were truly capitulating as many are looking for, highly speculative assets such as Bitcoin would likely not be showing such vibrant signs of life. While more price action is needed, an ascending triangle appears to be forming in BTCUSD. Should this formation materialize, higher prices may be ahead.

Chart created with TradingView

Like Bitcoin, Ethereum remains postured well above its YTD lows at $880. ETHUSD remains constrained to a much tighter range than Bitcoin, with price failing to materially break into a key pivot zone around $1400. Ethereum has largely struggled following the completion of the merge in September, with the network upgrade turning to be a sell the news event. As the outlook for risk continues to deteriorate, market participants may continue to follow economic data closely as Fed policy appears to drive all markets at the moment. With major event risk on the horizon next week, traders should keep an eye on how/if Ethereum breaks its recent range. While gravity continues to act forcefully on equities and bonds, crypto continues to defy the odds.

Chart created with TradingView

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Bitcoin and Ethereum Forecast for the Week Ahead - DailyFX

CNBCs Jim Cramer prodded his myriad online non-believers on Friday with a challenge: bet against him. He dares you.

Cramer bragged to Crypto Twitter that hes divested from Bitcoin and Ethereum and bought a farm and boat with the spoils. He then coaxed doubters of his crypto market analyses to go all in on their anti-Cramer positions.

Soon, those doubters may be able to do precisely that.

According to an SEC filing from earlier this week, Tuttle Capital Management has applied to launch two exchange-traded fundsthe Inverse Cramer ETF (SJIM), and the Long Cramer ETF (LJIM)that will put an investors funds towards the opposite of whatever the outspoken television personality advises on his CNBC program Mad Money, and via his Twitter account.

The Fund is an actively managed exchange traded fund that seeks to achieve its investment objective by engaging in transactions designed to perform the opposite of the return of the investments recommended by television personality Jim Cramer (Cramer), the SEC filing reads. Under normal circumstances, at least 80% of the Funds investments is invested in the inverse of securities mentioned by Cramer.

The history of the relationship between Cramer and Crypto Twitter is long and storied. Once an ardent crypto bull who stated it was almost irresponsible not to buy Bitcoin, Cramer had a 180-degree change of heart once crypto markets crashed earlier this year.

On Twitter, apparent patterns of Cramers financial advice backfiring perfectly led to the emergence of a parody account titled Inverse Cramer ETF, which would gloat whenever Cramers prognostications turned out to be precisely incorrect.

As Cramer developed increasing skepticism of crypto assets in the aftermath of Mays crypto crash, the television host began accumulating an ironic following on Crypto Twitter, with users jokinglyor maybe notpositing that so long as Cramer continued to bash crypto, there was hope for the market.

Cramers statement today may have been some form of acknowledgement of the lack of deference his financial advice is now generally granted online, and potentially, of his awareness of a prospective batch of publicly traded, anti-Cramer financial products.

As one Twitter user posited though, what "Inception"-level event would transpire if Cramer ever turned bullish on the Inverse Cramer?

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Jim Cramer Says He Bought a Farm With Bitcoin ProfitsAnd Dares You to Bet Against Him - Decrypt

This is an opinion editorial by Holly Young, Ph.D., an active builder in the Portuguese Bitcoin community.

Like many women in Bitcoin, I was first introduced to it by my partner. He had been a banker, and spoke eloquently and knowledgeably about money. When he first told me about it in 2016 the thing that shocked me the most was how ignorant about money I was back then. He asked me if I knew what the gold standard was to my embarrassment, I had only the vaguest of ideas.

We both went on quite the learning journey together, he leading the way. We both did an online course, the first of its kind, about digital currencies and he went on to do a Masters from the same university, Nicosia in Cyprus.

My first Bitcoin conference was an experience. Of the hundred and fifty odd participants, I was one of only three women and I joked with the other two about how this was the only event we had ever attended where there was no queue at the womens bathroom. But there was no denying it the atmosphere at that conference was electric. We were fizzing with an irrepressible excitement. We were onto something big and we knew it.

My learning when it comes to Bitcoin has never stopped and I look back at those early days with a fond nostalgia. The more I learned, the further reaching the changes I made. Soon enough I had changed my diet, my lifestyle, my approach to religion, family, life.

I guess once you have seen how important a discovery Bitcoin is, it could be argued that there is something of a moral imperative to tell the people who you care about. Ive been doing my best to make Bitcoin the subject of conversation amongst my family and my friends. Of course (and sadly) the success of this attempt is highly correlated to the price of Bitcoin at the time. But even taking the highs and the low in dollars into account it still surprises me how slow Bitcoin is, how hesitant most people are.

The series of stories which I have written as the Orange Pill Diaries are all true, and theyre about my varied attempts to introduce people I know and care about to Bitcoin. Im hoping that in the telling of my successes and failures there might be some common themes that Bitcoiners might be able to recognise, build upon or use.

These stories are all about people I know, friends or family. This first installment is about my friend Isobel, who owns a small trail riding business on the west coast of Portugal.

Ive got something Id like to show you, is what she said. I hesitated. I was sweat streaked and dusty. There was mud in my hair and blood under my nails from where I had clung on coming down a steep bank. I smelled strongly of horse. What I wanted was a long, cool shower with plenty of soap and shampoo in the heat of the Portuguese evening.

But when Isobel tells me she has something to show me, its pretty much always something special. Once it was a German cavalry saddle from the second World War which someone had unearthed from someones grandfathers attic and given to her as a gift. She had restored it with oil and the love true horsemen and women bestow on good equipment. Another time it was a pair of three year old Lusitano colts standing in the dusk, down through a wood and across a little stream. They were trusting, curious, blinking in the light from my phone. They rifled gently through our pockets for treats, explored our hair and boots with their muzzles and submitted to being petted like puppies.

So I followed her into the cool of her hallway, expecting her to lead me further into her house. Instead she fumbled under a pile of horse blankets and pulled out a cracked Ikea picture frame. Inside it, a five euro note. I found this, she said. I was out on a ride through the dunes and I saw it in the heather! So I jumped off and grabbed it. I looked at her in some confusion. Well, its not mine, I replied.

No well, I mean, I know. To my great surprise I saw that she had tears in her eyes. I know Isobel as a cheerful, sensible businesswomen, one of the best horsewomen I know (and I know very many, on this continent and beyond). Nothing phases her.

Seeing her on the verge of tears was unthinkable and I was momentarily lost for words. I just wanted to thank you again for coming. she says.

With COVID-19, times have been hard. Its not like horses stop eating, or dont need vets, or dont need the blacksmith once in a while, just because travel restrictions are in place and no tourists are here. Feed has gone up in price, shoeing too and no clients have been coming. When I found this five euro note I kept it for if I really get to a time again when I have nothing on my bank balance. At least Ill be able to buy bread for my kids for the next day. So thank you for coming. Im so glad youve never stopped traveling, even in all the restrictions and that you have come to ride with me again.

I didnt know what to say. Riding with her is a real highlight of every visit to the area but it had stupidly never occurred to me just how tight for money she must have been with so few clients, or how valuable my custom was.

Brightening, she told me how, to save on blacksmiths bills, she has taught herself how to trim her horses feet and is changing her routes so they only need to take the soft sand paths through the dunes. Its sixty five euros per horse per eight weeks now, she added. I have seven horses. That adds up very fast. This way, I keep their feet trimmed myself and none of them need shoes. She was cheerful again. I reached out to stroke the pretty white mare who had just taken me through the sand dunes, a light hearted adventure of walking and chatting combined with wild gallops down the narrow, twisting paths, emerging suddenly at breakneck speed onto cliff tops, with the turquoise Atlantic below. Wed talked about horses and our respective children and wed come back a little giddy from the galloping and the ozone rich air.

Id visited some months before, and I remembered when this horse was new. Almost all of Isobels horses are rescue horses. When she came this mare was afraid of her own shadow. If you raised a hand in her direction she flinched fearfully away, expecting a blow. Now, munching calmly on her feed, she turned contentedly towards me and rested her head briefly against my shoulder. I reached in my pocket for the cash I had put there, to pay for the ride I had just taken. Id slipped in a little extra but still, it didnt feel quite right, paying Isobel in euros. Someone whose work and skill I respected so much should be paid in well, better money. I gave it to her and she took it with a smile and more thanks.

I weighed my options carefully, trying to gauge her reaction. I knew if I offered her any financial help she wouldnt accept it, would be offended, even, and that it may sour a friendship which even in its very early days I recognized as a valuable one. I thought quickly through the pros and cons and then took the plunge. Do you remember how I told you about Bitcoin, Isobel? I asked her. She nodded. Well, would you maybe have time later in the week so I can explain it more? I think it might be a good way for you to be able to plan for the future.

My kids love a good swimming pool. I had made sure that the villa I had rented for our trip had one and a couple of days later I was lying beside it watching them plunge in, get out and plunge in again. Half my attention was on my book, which I wish I could tell you was something weighty on Bitcoin but was in fact an engaging novel about a penguin and mafia intrigues. I heard a bicycle on the gravel of the driveway and looked up to see Isobel peeking inquiringly around the hedge. Have you got time now? she asked. I brought my laptop.

We had spoken a bit about Bitcoin before. She knew I had an interest in it and was happy to talk about it. She also knew that I didnt want to give her financial advice on her personal situation but that I had made it very clear that if she had questions Id be more than happy to help. The real key to a successful orange pill, a good friend once told me, is awakening curiosity. And lets face it, most people come for the financial gains. Some people even stay for the gains, even when they have seen the revolution. Knowing Isobels financial situation, I started with the gains. I showed her a chart of Bitcoins price development over the years and I explained how, even though there are often dips, the dips have never gone to zero. I repeated the well known mantra: No one who has invested in Bitcoin for four years and not sold has ever lost money. Sketching it out roughly, I showed her why not.

But what is Bitcoin? was her eminently sensible question. I explained, as concisely as I could, how Bitcoin is a digital currency, whose ledger is maintained on the blockchain. I watched as the penny dropped when she started to realize the implications of property which is absolute. I compared it to the field where her two beautiful Lusitano stallions were no doubt at that moment happily chewing through the dry summer grass, a field whose deed had at some point in the mists of time been registered by an inhabitant of the village, now long dead. Ownership of the field and grazing rights was the cause of some strife for her and some government intervention from the council. We discussed inflation, which she was seeing in her life in the rising costs of the blacksmith and the feed she supplemented the dry grass with. I explained, as briefly as I could, how Bitcoin is decentralized and how crucial that is in determining its value. She had never heard of any altcoins (I think I once heard Elon talk about some kind of currency which I dont think was Bitcoin, but the mans a nut job anyway, she said) I repeated that Bitcoin is the only truly decentralized currency as a precautionary measure.

Then I asked her why she had her laptop with her. She told me she was curious. She had very little spare cash, she said, but she had seen how convinced I was in our first conversation. What she had heard during our conversation that day had helped her make up her mind. She wanted to buy a few euros worth.

I set her up with an encrypted email, a password manager and a wallet. Then we made our agreement. I told her I would pay for my daughter and I to go for a beach ride together with her. I would send her the euro amount in Bitcoin. We would wait to take that ride for bitcoin to double in value. Its an agreement which still stands between us. That was in May 2021, when one Bitcoin was $44,000. We still ride often together but were still waiting for Bitcoin to reach $88,000. That will be an all-time high to remember.

After I got her set up and explained what an orange pill was, I thought she would be well and truly done with talking about Bitcoin. Instead, she settled back in her chair. Where did Bitcoin come from? she asked. I put on a fresh pot of coffee.

This is a guest post by Holly Young. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

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Creating Hope In A Business Owners Life With Bitcoin Adoption - Bitcoin Magazine

O'Shares ETFs chairman and renownedShark TankinvestorKevin O'Learyhas once again spokenoutabout Bitcoin BTC/USD. He believes one factor is holding BTC back from moving out of the current trading range.

In aninterview, O'Leary, who will be speaking at the2022 Benzinga Crypto Conferenceon Dec. 7, said that support of U.S. policymakers could trigger an influx of institutional capital into the crypto markets, sparking aBitcoin rally.

"I think, and this is speculation, that if you got this thing done with just stablecoins, and you got it regulated, it would increase the value of a lot of different positions that I have, including Bitcoin," he said.

Earlier in August, he suggested that thecryptocurrency market should have strong policiesand regulations.

"I predict crypto, particularly Bitcoin, will be locked between $20,000 and $25,000 until we get a policy. After that, it's not going to go anywhere because there are not enough buyers," O'Leary said.

Also Read:Why Kevin O'Leary Says A New Digital Economy Is Emerging

He had said there is an ongoing battle between the SEC and other regulators regarding crypto, NFTs, and different crypto market-related products.

O'Leary said that Bitcoin is losing its momentum in terms of adoption, "There's a fatigue in this market now. And there's a lack of adoption, and there's a lack of wallets. There's a lack of a lot of stuff, and it's coming to the front now. People [are] saying, 'We've got to break through this.' It's like a giant log jam."

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $19,508, up about 1% in the last seven days.

Photo: Courtesy ofOntario Chamber of Common flickr

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Kevin O'Leary Says There's One Primary Catalyst That Can Push Bitcoin Higher - Bitcoin (BTC/USD) - Benzinga

Fed Watch is a macro podcast, true to bitcoins rebel nature. In each episode, we question mainstream and Bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.

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In this episode, CK and I cover a large chunk of the ongoing macro news. First, we covered New York Federal Reserve President John Williams speech on inflation, then the U.N. report demanding central banks change course and finally the OPEC decision to cut quotas by 2 million barrels per day (mbd).

Each week, CK and I lead off with a bitcoin chart to center our macro conversation from this perspective.

The daily chart from this week shows a slight bullish curl as it approaches the diagonal trend line. Several indicators are bullish, including more significant weekly and monthly signals.

The bitcoin daily chart showing bullish indicators

On the weekly chart, the first ever weekly bullish divergence has locked in. This does not mean we cant have further downside. If you look at the red columns on the chart below that signify weekly bearish divergences, you can see they often come in multiples. However, at the first sign of a weekly divergence, it does signal that we are very close to the ultimate reversal.

The sentiment in the Bitcoin ecosystem has started to shift from fear to being slightly more positive. If the price can capitalize here and break out, we could experience a sizable shift into bullish momentum.

The first ever weekly bullish divergence has locked in

In this section, CK and I also discuss a possible bitcoin decoupling from stocks. The correlation has been quite high recently, but bitcoin does offer some fundamentally different properties. As CK points out, bitcoin is not weakened by being exposed to a specific companys revenues in a credit crisis. Where companies might face harsh credit conditions, bitcoin doesnt. Bitcoin actually benefits from a flight away from credit risk.

In this segment, I read several quotes from a recent speech by John Williams, president of the New York Federal Reserve. Most of it revolved around a funny definition of inflation, which Williams calls the Inflation Onion.

The first layer of this onion is commodity prices, the second layer is prices of products like appliances and vehicles. The innermost layer of the inflation onion is wait for it underlying inflation.

There we have it: Inflation is an onion of different layers of prices. At the root is supply and demand and underlying inflation. No mention at all of money printing or debasement. I think what he intends to portray is that inflation works its way through the economy. Prices of commodities trickle inward to products, in this case, which in turn trickle inward to things like rents and labor.

This week saw the release of the United Nations annual Trade and Development Report, in which they described the current status of the global economy and provided policy recommendations. Overall, I was surprised by the cogent nature of the report, getting many things right. They even used terms like super-hysteresis and shadow banking, ideas weve been talking about on Fed Watch for years.

We go through several quotes right out of the report and find ourselves agreeing with them multiple times. It is only when the U.N. comes to make recommendations that they lose us.

The policy choices are straight out of the World Economic Forum or communist playbook. They are full of phrases like equitable distribution of income and redistributive policies. What they want the Fed to do is to stop rate hikes that are disproportionately hurting emerging markets and instead use price controls and regressive taxation.

A lot of this story doesnt make sense to me. OPEC+ had an in-person meeting on October 5, 2022 and decided to reduce their oil production quota by 2 mbd. However, this comes as they are currently producing 3.6 mbd below their current quota.

Under the voluntary production quota cut, OPECs total voluntary quota in November is 42.1 mbd, but their August production was 40.45 mbd. As it stands now, the reduction in the quota of 2 mbd, with current production levels, only shrinks OPEC's shortfall. They will still have 1.6 mbd of room to increase production!

Some people are figuring the new voluntary quotas by country, which results in a 0.86 mbd reduction, mostly from Saudi Arabia, but the total is as stated above. Ive been calling it voluntary because OPEC officials stressed that these quotas were voluntary.

Wait, what? How is this some sort of emergency? Its not. CK and I speculate on exactly why we see all the fear-mongering headlines we do from this story and it boils down to election season timing and narratives.

This is a guest post by Ansel Lindner. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc. or Bitcoin Magazine.

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The Federal Reserve Versus The UN And OPEC - Bitcoin Magazine