Category Archives: Automation

Drawing senior business and IT leaders, the ISG Automation Summit will take place July 10-11 at the Roosevelt Hotel in Manhattan, the first of two ISG Automation Summit events scheduled this year. The second will take place in London, September 19-20.

The New York event will feature keynote speakers from BNY Mellon, TNG (formerly The News Group) and McKesson who will share their automation success stories. Other enterprise speakers include representatives from John Hancock, Bell Canada, AECOM, U.S. Bank and Ascension Ministry Services.

Automation experts from ISG will share lessons learned from advising a broad range of clients on robotic process automation (RPA) initiatives, revealing how to deliver on the promise of automation and avoid the pitfalls, including the importance of managing organizational change. ISG also will share valuable industry research and discuss the next wave in automation: cognitive computing.

Among automation software providers, IPsoft will be a featured speaker, and representatives with Automation Anywhere, Blue Prism and HCL also will speak at the event.

"Talk of automation and AI is everywhere today," said Mark Davison, ISG partner, Robotic Process Automation. "At this event, we will separate hype from reality and share practical, real-world experiences on how to successfully begin and continue your automation journey everything from deciding which processes to automate, to selecting the right business partners, to preparing your organization for change while looking ahead to the future of artificial intelligence and cognitive computing. This is a must-attend event for anyone interested in leveraging the power of automation to become more efficient and achieve their overarching business goals."

More details about the ISG Automation Summit in New York can be found at the event website.

About ISG ISG (Information Services Group) (NASDAQ: III) is a leading global technology research and advisory firm. A trusted business partner to more than 700 clients, including 75 of the top 100 enterprises in the world, ISG is committed to helping corporations, public sector organizations, and service and technology providers achieve operational excellence and faster growth. The firm specializes in digital transformation services, including automation, cloud and data analytics; sourcing advisory; managed governance and risk services; network carrier services; technology strategy and operations design; change management; market intelligence and technology research and analysis. Founded in 2006, and based in Stamford, Conn., ISG employs more than 1,300 professionals operating in more than 20 countriesa global team known for its innovative thinking, market influence, deep industry and technology expertise, and world-class research and analytical capabilities based on the industry's most comprehensive marketplace data. For more information, visit http://www.isg-one.com.

To view the original version on PR Newswire, visit:http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/isg-to-host-inaugural-isg-automation-summit-300483205.html

SOURCE Information Services Group, Inc.

http://www.isg-one.com

View original post here:

ISG to Host Inaugural ISG Automation Summit - PR Newswire - PR Newswire (press release)

With constant pressure on agency margins, and the uncertain economy affecting clients confidence, theres a noticeable lull in the amount of money available for conventional marketing which inevitably means less money for conventional agencies as well.

But its not all doom and gloom. This just means its time we explored the opportunities available for agencies willing to prove their ROI by adapting to the ever changeable economic landscape.

With the news that theres now an AI-powered social marketing tool, capable of predicting engagement stats and even writing posts, its difficult to see a future for content delivery thats anything but automated. Especially when you consider the time and resource thats currently poured into the creative process.

Brands should be looking at the examples set by companies such as Cosabella to see the benefits of mechanised ad delivery. It was recently reported that the lingerie brand had seen a 30% increase in customer base by replacing multiple e-commerce and digital marketing agencies with artificial intelligence.

While it is just one example that just happens to have been incredibly successful, it proves that if you focus on key KPIs its a viable, cost-effective alternative. It is important to note that the creative, in this instance, was not developed by the AI although that is the next logical step given the aforementioned marketing tool. A tool which is currently petrifying content creators across the globe.

Moreover, its not just the creative process thats embracing automation. At SHARE Creative weve developed a bot, with the specific intention of cutting down resource we spend on internal recruitment. The bot gives applicants the opportunity to find out more about the agency, what jobs are available and if applicants would be a cultural fit at SHARE. However, the predominant purpose of the bot is to keep hours spent sifting through CVs and budgets spent on promoting available jobs as low as possible. Previously, we would spend up to 7,500 per candidate but now, using the SHAREbot, this has reduced massively to just 1,500.

Of course we still have to conduct interviews, but the bot conducts most of the cultural and day-to-day chemistry meetings for us. We also still have to pay for adverts on Facebook and LinkedIn but, if you think that the last time we advertised for the position of Graphic Designer we received over 1,000 applications, the benefits begin to stack up when using the bot to filter through them. This in turn allows us to reallocate this time and money into developing new ways to help our clients. Dubious? Give it a whirl by clicking on the link here.

Of course, if youve had your eye on marketing publications like this one recently, youll know that the word on everyones lips is consultancy. Now, this may scare creative agencies as they dont have the greatest track record for playing well with consultants. However, if you look at the recent launch of new agencies such as Wolfgang, whose specific intention it is to bridge the gap between creative and consultancy, its a clear indicator that theres a gap in the market which is yet to be saturated.

In the coming months, we'll be bombarded with articles expressing how difficult it has become to prove our worth in the creative industry and how our jobs are all going to be taken in-house or stolen by robots.

However, the crux of the issue is that solving brand problems alone wont give clients the confidence or support needed to keep spending money. We have to find creative solutions to inefficiencies across entire organisations in order to adapt to a new era of creativity and the future of marketing.

Harry Wright is a content manager at SHARE Creative, with a penchant for linking psychological theories to modern advertising techniques. Follow him on Twitter @hazmccaz

Read more:

Consultants and automation to the rescue: are they enough to save the agency space in 2017? - The Drum

MUMBAI | BENGALURU: Capgemini is expecting to hire over 20,000 people in India this year and has reskilled 45,000 employees until May as it takes strides towards automation. The French IT services consultant had hired 33,000 last year and re-skilled 51,000.

"There is a lot of training. We are investing a lot of money in the development of training programmes because automation and the integration of automation is leading to a lot of opportunity for our workforce," Christopher Stancombe, head, industrialisation and automation, Capgemini, told ET.

The company has about 100,000 people in its India operations. It did not share its global hiring and training figures, citing a silent period before release of quarterly results on July 27.

"We are seeing an increase in demand and automation is helping our people be more productive," said Stancombe.

Most IT companies are hiring fewer people and reskilling staff in adopting automation and digitisation. Nasscom's annual review said jobs grew only by 5% in FY17 and there may be a 20-25% reduction over the next three years.

However, Stancombe said, "We have been more focused on the positive side. We are seeing that it is releasing people's time to enable them to do other things -a bit more analytics, customer care. We are seeing a positive influence and a great opportunity for us, clients and employees. Automation is actually increasing demand for people."

The gap between revenue and job growth is expected to increase, gi ven the commoditised nature of IT services as robotics, machine learning and artificial intelligence become a part of the business model.

TCS, India's largest IT firm, said it offered jobs to close to 20,000 this it offered jobs to close to 20,000 this fiscal and has skilled 200,000 employees across 600,000 competencies. The Mumbai-based company had 3,87,223 employees at March end, against 3,53,843 a year ago -a jump of 9.5%.

Bangalore-based Infosys is going to hire 20,000 in India in FY 2018.Total number of employees in Infosys stood at 2,00,364 as of March 31, 2017 versus 1,94,044 a year ago -a mere 3% increase.

In its annual report, Infosys said automation has helped it eliminate around 11,000 full-time employees worth of effort and repurpose those people into more "valuable and rewarding" tasks.

Excerpt from:

Capgemini may hire over 20000 in India - Economic Times

SINGAPORE: Singapore faces a serious gap in labour productivity. Singapores labour productivity grew by an average of 2.2 per cent per year from 2000 to 2013, according to estimates by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI).

Yet for Singapore to maintain historical levels of growth, the city would need to increase its labour productivity by an average of 5.8 per cent per year from 2013 to 2030 - a rate nearly three times as high as in the previous 13 years.

In many countries, increasing labour productivity usually requires employment to shift from less productive sectors, such as agriculture, to more productive ones, like manufacturing.

For Singapore, however, this model might not be workable. Its economy has been restructured to some extent, and its labour market is very tight. Employment shifts among sectors actually reduced Singapores economic growth from 2006 to 2012.

Further labour productivity gains need to take place within sectors. In this regard, automation technologies - which include artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning and robotics - hold considerable promise. Automation could raise productivity growth by 0.8 to 1.4 per cent annually in 20 large countries, according to MGI estimates.

To take advantage of this opportunity, executives and policy makers in Singapore need to understand the nature of todays automation technologies and the potential productivity improvements that they offer to Singapore and other Asian economies.

AI WILL AFFECT BUSINESSES

For decades, organisations have used computers and machines to streamline and perform the work of humans. Recent advances in computing technology, programming techniques and data collection are making it possible for machines to do more cognitive work, such as finding patterns in data and reaching decisions.

When my McKinsey colleagues in China conducted a survey on AI, respondents identified more than 100 ways that AI might affect their industries. Innovation seems likely to accelerate, also because investment is pouring into new applications for AI.

AUTOMATION AFFECT JOBS TO VARYING DEGREES

A common fear is that automation will destroy jobs. But the situation is more nuanced. Tasks like collecting data or doing predictable physical labour can be automated readily. This is not the case for activities that involve social, emotional and cognitive skills, such as dealing with customers and managing workers.

By looking at the potential for automating activities, we found that just 5 per cent of occupations could be fully automated with currently demonstrated technologies. Many more could be partly automated: Some 60 per cent of jobs could have 30 per cent of their activities automated.

These jobs span the pay scales and ranks of organisations, all the way up to those working in companies C-suite leadership roles: Activities consuming more than an estimated 20 per cent of a CEOs working time could be automated using current technologies.

EFFECT WILL DIFFER AMONG GEOGRAPHIES AND SECTORS

Although automation will influence jobs in every sector and country, it will make more of a difference in some places than in others.

The potential for automation is concentrated in four countries with large populations, high wages, or both: China, India, Japan, and the US. These countries account for just over half of the wages and almost two-thirds of the work associated with automatable activities.

Of the 11 Asian countries that MGI studied, Singapore actually has the lowest proportion of work that can be automated with current technologies (44 per cent, which is admittedly still high).

In Singapore, much of the work that can be automated using existing technologies is in the citys larger industries: Manufacturing (equivalent to 213,800 jobs), administrative and support services (134,200 jobs), retail (124,900 jobs), and construction (120,000 jobs). Two smaller sectors have particularly high percentages of automatable work: accommodation and food services (60 per cent) and transportation and warehousing (59 per cent).

ADOPTION DEPEND ON FIVE FACTORS

Some think that automation will happen rapidly, but it appears likely that the adoption of automation will take decades. The pace and extent of automations effect on work activities depends on five factors.

First, whether a demonstrated technology can be turned into a commercial product or service quickly. Second, whether the costs of development and deployment, which have to be covered in advance, can be eventually recouped.

Third, dynamics in the labour market, including demographics, wage levels, and worker training, which can help workers adapt to new technologies. Fourth, the type and distribution of economic benefits such as increased productivity, improved safety, lower labour costs and higher product quality, which determines whether companies have a strong incentive to adopt automation technologies.

Last, regulatory and social acceptance, related to issues such as safety and liability, data privacy and security, and possible increases in unemployment levels.

A projected 50 per cent of all work activities could be automated by around 2035 if these five factors favour the rapid development and adoption of automation technologies.

Should automation develop more slowly, the same level of automation might not occur until 2075.

MAJOR ECONOMIC POTENTIAL

The productivity boost from automation in the worlds 20 largest economies could be equivalent to adding 1.1 billion to 2.3 billion full-time workers when we reach 2065, based on MGI's estimates.

This could increase growth by 0.8 to 1.4 per cent of global GDP annually. Such gains would offset some of the slowdown in workforce growth that is happening in many advanced and some emerging economies - a demographic trend that could cut economic growth nearly in half.

Previous periods of structural economic change created winners and losers, but not in a zero-sum way. In the US, for example, manufacturing employment fell from 25 per cent in 1950 to less than 10 per cent in 2010, but new jobs replaced the ones that disappeared and society was better off on the whole when the transition was complete.

As automation progresses, economic growth will increase most if workers who are affected by automation continue working at the same levels of productivity. Meeting this condition will require concerted action in the private and public sectors.

Business leaders could find ways to redeploy the displaced, either within their own organisations or elsewhere. Policy makers should develop measures to help workers develop new skills and to promote the creation of new jobs.

Singapore is well-positioned to help its workers enter the age of automation, thanks to efforts like the SkillsFuture programme, which helps workers pay for the training theyll need to keep up with the demands of the digital economy.

The Government also has institutions in place, like the Smart Nation Programme Office, that could assist with tracking the progress of automation and devising new initiatives to help companies deploy advanced technologies. Tying spending and incentives to investments in new technologies more closely could be one approach.

I am optimistic that Singapore and other Asian economies have the human and technological capital, as well as the international outlook, to capitalise on the opportunities created by automation while limiting the downside.

Diaan-Yi Lin is Managing Partner of McKinsey & Company in Singapore.

Read this article:

Commentary: The optimist's case for automation - Channel NewsAsia

Sprinkles, a chain of bakeries, has installed 15 or so cupcake ATMs around the US. Beyond providing on-demand desserts at any time of day or night, these machines also hold a valuable lesson for workers who fear that robots will take their jobs.

The lesson: dont become a cupcake seller.

Prestige Economics founder Jason Schenker thinks kioskification and related trends in the service industry are just getting started. In the cupcake world, that means the baker should focus solely on making the cakes. The ATM, meanwhile, handles the simple, repetitive task of selling them, freeing up bakers to focus on developing new flavors or other high-value tasks.

An ATM, kiosk, or some other delivery system can increase sales, because it attracts customers frustrated by long lines or who want a cupcake during non-business hours. (Or, they are intrigued by the novelty of it.) If sales go up, then more workers are needed to make products to fill the machinesideally, the sort of work thats more meaningful to them than exchanging money for cupcakes. Schenker suggests that, in this way, kiosks could help create more jobs.

As it happens, thats generally what happened with cash ATMs since they were invented 50 years ago. Since 2000, the number of bank tellers in the US has increased by 2% per year, faster than the rest of the labor market, according to research by James Bessen (pdf), an economist at the Boston University School of Law.

ATMs let banks operate branches at lower costs, which allowed lenders to open more of them. Therefore, automation itself sometimes brings growing employment to occupations, according to Bessen.

The same could be true in other industries, like the robo-advisors that are capturing a small but growing share of the financial advice business. Schenker points out that many industries make the bulk of their profit from 20% of their customersthe so-called 80/20 rule. Automation could allow financial firms to focus the efforts of human employees on personalized services for clients who have more complicated, lucrative needs.

Not everyone is convinced. The notion that automation could permanently reduce the need for human employment is a reason some think universal basic income will become necessary. French leftwing presidential candidate Benot Hamon suggested taxing wealth created by robots and providing citizens with monthly income payments. Microsoft founder Bill Gates thinks a robot tax could be used to fund public services and training programs.

These days, if bank-teller jobs are under threat, arguably its not because of the ATM but rather the iPhone. Smartphones are streamlining a wide range of banking services, and more transactions are now made without cash. Since peaking in 2009, the number of bank branches in the US has started to decline (pdf), reducing jobs for tellers as well (paywall).

The ATM itself has also been forced to evolve, offering more features, like accepting cash deposits and integrating into our digital lives by connecting with mobile phones, according to Accentures Jeremy Light. He argues that ATMs will become even more important as bank branches close down. Humans, meanwhile, will focus on roles that provide more complex services, like advice.

Its hard to predict which jobsif anywill be created as a result of robots, apps, and other forms of automation. But as Schenkers cupcake theory suggests, innovation doesnt always destroy jobs, even in the industry its transforming.

Read next: Weve been worrying about the end of work for 500 years

Go here to see the original:

Lesson from the cupcake ATM: Better to be a baker than a seller - Quartz

Several poll watchdog groups are now drafting amendments that they would propose to strengthen the 10-year old Election Automation Law.

In a press briefing, the Automated Election System (AES) Watch, transparentelections.org, Philippine Computer Society and Reform Philippines Coalition (RPC) said they were already outlining provisions aimed at changing and improving Republic Act (RA) No. 9369.

We are actually drafting a new Automated Election System (AES) law that would strengthen the institution of automated elections in the country, said RPC spokesperson Glenn Chong.

He said the new AES draft aimed to better ensure that the basic principles of an automated poll system were safeguarded.

This would strengthen the security and ensure that our elections would be transparent, clean, honest and secure, Chong said.

Single contractor

The election watchdog groups had been criticizing the Commission on Elections (Comelec) for tapping Smartmatic International for the last three national elections despite the AES providers supposed violations of the provisions of RA 9369.

Recently, the groups said it was possible that fraud was committed during the May 2016 elections after all the security features required by RA 9369 were, according to the groups, disregarded by the Comelec and Smartmatic.

Maricor Akol, transparentelections.org coconvener, said one particular provision that the groups were considering is how to ensure accountability in case the error is committed by the Comelec.

There were no provisions for penalties [in RA 9369]. What would happen if they are the ones guilty of failing to secure the system? What if they fail to do something? In the revision that we are coming out with, well come out with the penalties, Akol said.

AES Watch spokesperson Nelson Celis said the draft measure was already in its final review stage.

It is already for submission to the Senate hopefully in two to three weeks, he said.

Subscribe to INQUIRER PLUS to get access to The Philippine Daily Inquirer & other 70+ titles, share up to 5 gadgets, listen to the news, download as early as 4am & share articles on social media. Call 896 6000.

Here is the original post:

Groups draft changes in law on poll automation - Inquirer.net

NEX Optimisation has implementedout a new settlement service for over-the-counter (OTC) FX, helping better facilitate and streamline bilateral settlement netting processes for market participants. The launch will mark one of the industrys first instances of a fully automated Settlement Netting Service, initially targeting OTC FX as well as additional asset classes moving forward.

The London Summit 2017 is coming, get involved!

The new service will help address thelingering issue of settlement failure rates. While only estimated at nearly 3 percent, these do amount to nearly $1.5 billion on a daily basis. However, the deployment of an API to simultaneously communicate with clients, banks and custodians systems will help mitigate and ideally reconcile this issue.

NEX Optimisations service will abandon the manual process in favor of automated netting between clients and their dealers to date, manual methods have resulted in settlement fail rates and other unnecessary fragmentation that has had a disconnect with markets.

In its first iteration, NEXs Settlement Netting Service will target and automate the settlement netting of only OTC FX, though is also slated for an expansion into all asset classes in the near future. The service was developed utilizing Traianas technology infrastructure, yielding several new benefits for trading activities and settlement processing.

This includes heightened efficiency via the reduction of lead time between netting and settlement as well as a lower operational and funding costs, settlement fail breaks and costly claims. This has been one of the largest areas of emphasis through its Settlement Netting Service, which had been working to improve in this area.The service will also help provide a standardized process for netting participants. In addition to reduced risk exposure, the automated service is also in full compliance with regulatory regimes and the new FX Global Code of Conduct.

Joanna Davies, Managing Director at Traiana, commented on the launch: The Settlement Netting Service will allow traders to execute with any bank on any trading venue and enjoy optimised, efficient, automated and consistent post-trade processing from execution through settlement.

Settlement netting processes have traditionally been fragmented across organisations and asset classes, requiring extensive manual processing, which does not reflect the way in which the market is moving. By automating the entire netting process via a central hub, weve brought an essential tool to the market that will significantly reduce breaks and have a direct impact on costs for our clients, she added.

The release of the Settlement Netting Service comes just one month after NEX introduced a new infrastructure for NEX Infinity, which improved testing for FX and cash equities on the distributed ledger. The initiative has since helped clients benefit from less complexity and more optimized resources across the transaction lifecycle.

Read more here:

NEX Optimisation Rolls Out New Automation Settlement Service for OTC FX - Finance Magnates

Kal Juman, principal of Industry Labs and business sales consultant; Imran Abdool, president of Blue Krystal Technologies and Business Insights, and lecturer on finance, economics, and strategy at the University of Windsor; Richard Douglas-Chin, associate professor, English Literature, University of Windsor

In their continual quest to cut costs, boost revenue and maximize shareholders value, todays corporate bosses have made automation their standard modus operandi.

However, what is often good at the individual firm level is problematic at the societal one: automation has meant bigger bottom lines for shareholders at the expense of less-skilled workers becoming unemployed or underemployed. With the rise of populist politicians in America and Europe, companies would be well-placed to rethink their level of automation going forward.

There are two important aspects to increased automation: brand experience and long-term strategic planning. Automation affects brand experience through reduced or even eliminated interaction with the customer. Almost everyone has heard an anecdotal story of a frustrating experience with a self-service or self-checkout counter. Automation has touched all industries; even law and finance have now seen their consumer-interaction significantly eroded. At the corporate level, increased automation represents a trade-off between brand experience and cost savings. The challenge for companies is to find the optimal level in this trade-off, but the difficulty arises in comparing a tangible quantity (cost savings) with an intangible one (brand experience).

The iconic retailer Sears has had ailing brand experience for years preceding its current financial decline. During Sears profitable years the company hastily paid out excess cash to shareholders rather than reinvesting in Sears in-store experience. In decades past, Sears had a unique brand experience. Now, Craftsman has been sold off from the larger Sears Holding Corp. and the fate of Kenmore is questionable too. Without a unique brand experience, Sears bricks-and-mortar stores cannot compete on price point and convenience with online retailers such as Amazon. Sears failed to utilize its vast inventory, cataloging and corporate resources for a first-mover advantage in online retailing before Alibaba and Amazon.

Conversely, when brand experience is successful, a premium can be charged for that success. For example, Apple is famed for its achievement in developing its brand and its ensuing customer experience. Walk into any Apple store and compare first-hand this experience with another technology retailer. One of Apples star products, the iPhone at its most basic functional level is no different from similar products, but the Apple experience always commands a price premium.

Being cognizant of the trade-off between automation and brand experience not only benefits corporate shareholders but our broader society as well. Two futures can exist in the relationship between corporations and their workers: one where corporations have higher profits and less employment or one where employment and corporate profits rise in tandem. A company can boost innovation, profits and employment by combining risk-taking with empathy for consumers and workers.

It can be argued that a companys present stock price captures the markets perceptions of automation benefiting a company this is a standard assumption of modern stock pricing in which the current price is based on all available information. However, it can also be argued that market perceptions can and have been significantly wrong e.g., the dot-com bubble, the recent subprime crisis and behavioural finance research. Therefore, current financial markets may be overvaluing automation.

With regard to strategic planning, its no secret that investors and financiers are short-term rather than long-term oriented. Wall Streets culture, as well as the high speed of Internet communication, promote bonuses reflecting short-term performance demarcated by quarterly or annual time frames. The recent incident involving a United Airlines (UA) flight and the forceful removal of one of its passengers demonstrates how quickly capital markets react to perceived company performance: immediately after this story broke, UA stock was down 4 per cent in the next mornings trading reflecting the speed of capital markets and also consumers swift negative judgment on UAs brand experience.

Perhaps it is time for a novel approach: link corporate bonuses to a long-term performance horizon. Specifically, CEOs shouldnt leave with a golden parachute or be able to cash out stock at current prices. Instead, there should be a time delay of five to 10 years before cashing out a significant portion of their stock thereby aligning their incentive with long-term corporate (and incidentally societal) good.

This trend is already beginning: the number of IPOs in America has fallen significantly over time. Private capital markets are seen as longer-term oriented than their public counterparts. Company founders and stakeholders are beginning to express their preference for this type of governance and financing. They are recognizing that automation can be a substitute or a complement, and with proper planning the latter is quite profitable.

Follow us on Twitter: @GlobeBusiness

Read more here:

Companies must strike a balance between automation and brand experience - The Globe and Mail

The bankers are not yet ready to buy into dystopian visions in which robots render humans superfluous. But they are seriously discussing the risk that artificial intelligence could eliminate jobs on a scale that would dwarf previous waves of technological change.

SINTRA, Portugal The rise of robots has long been a topic for sci-fi best-sellers and video games and, as of last week, a threat officially taken seriously by central bankers.

The bankers are not yet ready to buy into dystopian visions in which robots render humans superfluous. But, at an exclusive gathering at a golf resort near Lisbon, the big minds of monetary policy were seriously discussing the risk that artificial intelligence could eliminate jobs on a scale that would dwarf previous waves of technological change.

There is no question we are in an era of people asking, Is the Robocalpyse upon us? David Autor, a professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, told an audience Tuesday that included Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, and dozens of other top central bankers and economists.

The discussion occurred as economists were more optimistic than they had been for a decade about growth. Draghi used the occasion to signal that the European Central Bank is edging closer to the day when it will begin paring measures intended to keep interest rates very low and bolster the economy.

All the signs now point to a strengthening and broadening recovery in the euro area, Draghi said. His comments pushed the euro to almost its highest level in a year, though it later gave up some of the gains.

But along with the optimism is a fear that the economic expansion might bypass large swaths of the population, in part because a growing number of jobs could be replaced by computers capable of learning artificial intelligence.

Policymakers and economists conceded that they have not paid enough attention to how much technology has hurt the earning power of some segments of society, or planned to address the concerns of those who have lost out. That has, in part, nourished the political populism that contributed to Britains vote a year ago to leave the European Union, and the election of President Donald Trump.

Generally speaking, economic growth is a good thing, Ben Bernanke, a former chairman of the Federal Reserve, said at the forum. But, as recent political developments have brought home, growth is not always enough.

In the past, technical advances caused temporary disruptions but ultimately improved living standards, creating new categories of employment along the way. Farm machinery displaced farmworkers but eventually they found better paying jobs, and today their great-grandchildren may design video games.

But artificial intelligence threatens broad categories of jobs previously seen as safe from automation, such as legal assistants, corporate auditors and investment managers. Large groups of people could become obsolete, suffering the same fate as plow horses after the invention of the tractor.

More and more, we are seeing economists saying, This time could be different, said Autor, who presented a paper on the subject that he wrote with Anna Salomons, an associate professor at the Utrecht University School of Economics in the Netherlands.

Central bankers have begun examining the effect of technology on employment because it might help solve several economic quandaries.

Why is workers share of total earnings declining, even though unemployment is at record lows and corporate profits at record highs? Why is productivity the amount that a given worker produces stuck in neutral?

The mere fact that we are organizing this conference here in Sintra testifies to our interest in that discussion, Benot Coeur, a member of the European Central Banks executive board, said in an interview, referring to the Robocalpyse debate.

Of particular interest to the European Central Bank is why faster economic growth has not caused wages and prices to rise. The central bank has pulled out all the stops to stimulate the eurozone economy, cutting interest rates to zero and even below, while printing money. Four years of growth have led to the creation of 6.4 million jobs. Yet inflation remains well below the banks official target of below, but close to, 2 percent.

One explanation is that more work is being done by advanced computers, with the rewards flowing to the narrow elite that owns them.

Still, among the economists in Sintra there was plenty of skepticism about whether the Robocalpyse is nigh.

Since the beginning of the industrial age, almost every major technological innovation has led to dire predictions that humans were being permanently replaced by machines.

While some kinds of jobs were lost forever, greater efficiency led to more affordable goods and other industries soaked up the excess workers. Few people alive today would want to return to the late 1800s, when 40 percent of Americans worked on farms.

Robocalpyse advocates underestimate the power of scientific advances to beget more scientific advances, said Joel Mokyr, a professor at Northwestern University who studies the history of economics.

Think about what computers are doing to our ability to discover science, Mokyr said during a panel discussion, citing computers that can solve equations that have baffled mathematicians for decades. There may be breakthroughs that we cant even begin to imagine.

There are other explanations for stagnant wages besides technology.

Companies in Japan, the United States and Europe are sitting on hoards of cash, doling out the money to shareholders rather than investing in new buildings, equipment or innovative products. Just why is another topic of debate.

Hal Varian, the chief economist at Google whose self-driving technology may someday make taxi drivers unnecessary said that the plunging cost of information technology has virtually eliminated the fixed cost of entering a business. Companies can rent software and computing power over the internet.

And flat wages reflect the large number of women who have entered the workforce in recent decades as well as the post-World War II baby boom, Varian said, adding that those trends have run their course. We are going to see a higher share going to labor, he said.

Yet already, disruptions caused by technology help account for rampant pessimism among working-class and middle-class people across the developed world.

Bernanke referred to polls showing that about twice as many Americans say the United States is on the wrong track than say the country is moving in the right direction.

As a result, last November Americans elected as president a candidate with a dystopian view of the economy, Bernanke said.

Autor concluded that it was too early to say that robots are coming for peoples jobs. But it could still happen in the future.

I say not Robocalpyse now, Autor said, perhaps Robocalpyse later.

Go here to see the original:

Robocalpyse now? Central bankers argue whether automation will kill jobs - The Seattle Times

USA TODAY

Automation saved this American manufacturer USA TODAY Marlin Steel in Baltimore, Maryland, was able to stay in business by automating its processes to stay competitive when many other manufacturing jobs went overseas. Video by Jasper Colt, USA TODAY ...

Read the original here:

Automation saved this American manufacturer - USA TODAY