Geoffrey Miller: How should New Zealand respond to the Ukraine-Russia crisis? – Newshub

Why should the crisis matter to Wellington some 17,000 km away from Kyiv and Moscow?

One reason is that Russia is, like New Zealand, an APEC member. An Asian and Pacific power as much as a European one, Russia lies very much within New Zealand's orbit: Vladivostok is only a two-hour flight away from South Korea, one of New Zealand's closest trading partners.

Indeed, Russia is increasingly looking eastwards in part thanks to the impact of climate change.

Melting Arctic ice means that the 'Northern Sea Route' along Russia's coast is slowly emerging as a new, lucrative shipping route for journeys from Europe to Asia and a much faster alternative to the Suez Canal. As the route becomes more viable, development is likely to accelerate in Russia's Far East.

Moscow is also enjoying increasingly close relations with Beijing, partly as a by-product of its isolation from the West since Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014. China and Russia are planning joint military exercises and in a recent video call, Xi Jinping addressed Vladimir Putin as his "old friend", while Putin described Russian-Sino relations as being at an "all-time high."

Indeed, China's relationship with Russia is so good that the US last week called on Beijing to use its influence to try to convince Moscow to deescalate the crisis over Ukraine.

NATO allies, especially the United States and United Kingdom, have been unusually outspoken and blunt about the prospects of Russia launching a war with Ukraine. A constant flow of intelligence has been released throughout January to support the view that Russia is planning an invasion.

For instance, on Saturday, Reuters reported claims from US officials that Russia was moving blood supplies for treating potential war casualties to the border. Earlier, on January 14, the US said it believed Russia was planning a 'false flag' operation to create a pretext for war, which was followed by a British statement on January 23 that said Russia was planning to install a puppet government in Ukraine.

These claims should be taken seriously, but raw intelligence should also be viewed with a healthy degree of scepticism. This year marks the 20th anniversary of the release of the British Government's infamous September 2002 dossier that helped to underpin Tony Blair's case for war on Iraq. The dossier's central claims about Iraq's possession of weapons of mass destruction were later discredited or proven to be false.

Indeed, even Ukraine's own president seems to be doubtful that the current situation really is as dramatic as the US and NATO are making out. A phone call between Volodymyr Zelensky and Joe Biden last week reportedly "did not go well", with Zelensky later telling reporters "we don't need this panicI don't consider the situation now more tense than before."

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Geoffrey Miller: How should New Zealand respond to the Ukraine-Russia crisis? - Newshub