Covid-19: New Zealand’s vaccine roll-out explained in 10 charts, and compared with the rest of the world – Stuff.co.nz

More than half the country have now had a single dose of the Covid-19 vaccine, with tens of thousands getting a jab every day. But those numbers dont tell the full story. Kate Newton and Henry Cooke dig into the roll-out.

We have enough vaccines.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern isnt releasing details until Thursday, but was happy to say earlier in the week that a looming supply problem caused by huge demand for vaccines had been sorted. On Wednesday, new numbers showed the stockpile of jabs kept in reserve had also recovered.

RYAN ANDERSON/Stuff

A drive-through vaccination clinic.

But as our vaccine roll-out races ahead, massive inequities remain both across regions and ethnicities. And even with a world-beating speed, New Zealand remains behind much of the rest of the developed world.

Here's a deep look into the vaccine roll-out across New Zealand, and how it compares with the rest of the world.

Lets get these overall numbers out of the way if youre looking for how this compares with other countries, scroll down.

At midnight on Tuesday 2.7 million Kiwis have had at least one jab.

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Thats just over half the entire country: 52 per cent. But we have to remember that about 15 per cent of the country are aged under 12, and wont get the vaccine any time soon. So if we look at the 4.4 million people aged 12 or over, 61 per cent have got a single jab.

However, one jab gives only partial protection. New Zealand is focusing on these first jabs, while leaving a six-week gap before second jabs. The Government has only been giving out about half as many second jabs every day.

Just 1.4 million Kiwis have had both jabs and are considered fully protected. Thats 32 per cent of that 12+ population or 27 per cent of the entire population.

New Zealands vaccination story varies wildly based on where you live.

Three-quarters of those aged 12+ have had a jab in Nelson Marlborough, the best-performing district health board (DHB). For context thats a vaccination rate better than the United States.

Its closely followed by the Southern DHB who has also cracked 70 per cent.

But those rates compare with just over half of the 12+ population for Taranaki, the worst-performing DHB.

But the South Islands good fortune has not come to its major centre: Canterbury is the worst-performing of New Zealands three main cities on first doses, with 56 per cent of its population jabbed. Wellingtons DHBs are on top, with over two thirds (68 per cent) receiving at least one dose. Auckland is in the middle with 63.8 per cent of the 12+ population having had a jab so not far off the national rate.

Things are a bit different when it comes to second doses, which provide fuller protection.

Once again Taranaki is in last place, with 23 per cent of its 12+ population double-dosed. And again Nelson Marlborough are on top with 42 per cent of its 12+ population double-dosed.

Canterbury is again the worst of the main centres, with just 27 per cent fully protected, but Wellingtons DHBs are not far ahead of them with just 28 per cent of its 12+ population fully protected. Aucklands DHBs are a bit ahead of the national curve, with 33 per cent of its 12+ population double-dosed.

Funnily enough, Taranaki has generally been meeting its own self-set plans. But as of this week there are no more plans: The Ministry of Health says the unprecedented demand because of the outbreak means the plans are of no more use, and will not return until October.

New Zealands speed has dropped slightly from the past few weeks, when we were going faster than most of the world ever managed.

It is still going very fast, however, with over half a million doses doled out over the week to Tuesday. At 74,000 doses a day about 1.5 per cent of the country have been getting a jab every single day.

Thats faster than Australia who are sitting at about 1.1 per cent and rivals Korea and Japan at their peaks, while easily outstripping the peak rate of other Western nations. But it is a (slight) drop-off from heights of 1.6 per cent reached the week prior.

We know that this rate won't be maintained forever, because eventually New Zealand will run out of people who are motivated to get the vaccine and run into those who aren't so keen. But as a point of illustration, if that pace was maintained, the entire roll-out would be finished on November 9. Before that, 80 per cent of the 12+ population would have had a first jab by September 23, 90 per cent by October 1, and 100 per cent by October 10.

New Zealand is no longer at the bottom of the developed world. But its not far from it.

With the countrys huge first dose campaign, the Government has now partially protected more of its population than several other nations, including Australia and Poland. The lead is slight, however: 52 per cent of our entire population has at least one jab, compared with 51% of Australia. If the vaccine roll-out keeps going at its current speed, we will likely pass several other nations on this statistic in the next week or so, including the United States.

Yet on second doses, we remain behind every country in the OECD other than Costa Rica.

You can blend these two figures to get a slightly better idea of how our overall vaccine roll-out is going compared with other nations, by looking at the overall number of doses doled out per 100 people.

New Zealand remains behind Australia on this measure, with about 79 doses per 100 people compared with 82 in Australia. And while we may be ahead of countries like Mexico, were far behind the countries we traditionally compare ourselves with such as Canada, the UK, the USA, and the EU, who have all doled out more than 100 doses per 100 people.

New Zealands vaccination campaign was staged by priority groups, with healthy young people intended to get the vaccine last.

The Government set up four different priority groups to manage this, with the first (border workers) being the most important and the last (the general population) the least.

But while the Government has basically vaccinated everyone connected to the border, it hasnt finished vaccinating its two other priority groups, yet is marching ahead with the general population.

Lets go through each of these in turn.

Group 1 border workers does appear to be mostly complete. The Government estimated there were 50,000 of these people earlier this year, but there was clearly more: 64,000 have now had a first jab, while 60,000 of them have had their second.

Group 2 is frontline health professionals and people in rest homes. The Government estimated there was 480,000 of these people, but again this must have been an undercount: 552,000 have had at least a first dose, while 456,000 have had a second. If we assume that the actual ceiling for this group is 550,000, that still leaves 100,000 frontline workers or rest home residents with only partial protection.

But the real gap is in group 3, an amorphous group that takes in everyone aged 65 or over and everyone with a health condition that could make a Covid-19 infection a particularly bad time, from pregnancy to asthma.

The actual size of this group is very tricky to work out: We know there is 750,000 people aged 65 or over, and then the Ministry of Health estimate there is anywhere between 700,000 and 1.2 million people with a health condition that makes them eligible.

But it is clear that not all in this vulnerable group are protected, and that they are falling behind the general population who are vaccinating at pace.

Just 689,000 people in group 3 have had at least one dose, while 524,000 have had both. Given we know the group has to be at least 750,000 just to cover the over-65s this suggests many vulnerable people are unprotected.

And group 4 - the general population under-65 are racing ahead of them. A total of 1.36m in group 4 have had a first jab, and 331,000 have had a second.

Stuff has asked the Ministry of Health for an explanation of group 3s laggardly pace. Covid-19 Minister Chris Hipkins has noted in earlier weeks that many people technically eligible for group 3 may just be saying they are in group 4 when turning up for a jab.

Its also worth noting that when group 3 were first allowed to book vaccines, there were far fewer slots than there are now meaning many people booked a first jab for late-September or October. Since then a huge slew of clinics has opened up, meaning those in group 4 have often been able to just get a walk-in vaccine, or book an appointment for the next day.

Another lens we can look at for vulnerability is ethnicity, particularly as we know Mori are far more likely to be hospitalised and die if they are infected with Covid-19.

Mori continue to lag the general population while close to a third of the 12+ population (32 per cent) is now fully protected, just 21 per cent of Mori are. Around four in ten Mori have had a first dose, compared to six in ten of the full population.

Some of this is explainable by age structure, as Mori people are typically younger and thus werent eligible for the vaccine as early as older populations. But not all of it: Mori aged 20-34 are about half as likely as the rest of the population to have had a first or second jab.

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Covid-19: New Zealand's vaccine roll-out explained in 10 charts, and compared with the rest of the world - Stuff.co.nz