New Zealand has long been seen as the moderate, even absent,voiceonChinain the "Five Eyes" western alliance, so much so thatitscommitment to the group was questioned just 12 months ago.
The recent signing of asecuritypactbetweenChinaand nearbySolomonIslandsappears to have changed that.
New Zealand's tone on bothsecurityand Beijing's growing presence in the South Pacific has toughened, a shift analysts say reflects concerns the agreement will give Beijing a strategic foothold and potentially a military presence in the Pacific that could destabilise Western influence.
Also read |Australia-Solomon Islands meet, discussions include China deal
"It's a real challenge to New Zealand's sense of where the Pacific is heading," said Robert Ayson, Professor of Strategic Studies at Victoria University of Wellington.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern described thepactas "gravely concerning" and called onSolomonIslandsto discuss it within the PacificIslandsForum.
"What is really changing around us is the level of assertiveness and aggression we see in the region," Ardern said later at a United States-New Zealand Business Summit.
New Zealand has previously often shied away from such criticisms, which analysts put down to the country's heavy trade reliance and close economic relationship withChina.
BothChinaand theSolomonIslandshave said the newpactwill not undermine peace in the region. Details of the final agreement have not been released but Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said the agreement called forChinato help theSolomonIslandsmaintain social order and cope with natural disasters, and did not pose a risk to the United States.
Watch |The Pacific power struggle: US officials land in Solomon Island
Soft power
But statements by Ardern and Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta were a clear signal they shared U.S. and Australian concerns about Chinesesecurityengagement in the Pacific, said Anna Powles from the Centre for Defence andSecurityStudies at Massey University.
"It also sent a signal to the Pacific that New Zealand supported regional collectivesecurityinitiatives, and to third parties, specificallyChina, that regional crises in the Pacific would be managed by the region," she said.
While small and with limited military capabilities, New Zealand's soft power in the Pacific is arguably stronger thanitsallies. It has a large Pacifika population and strong family, business, sporting and cultural ties along with territories in the region.
New Zealand seesitself as a Pacific country and wants stability and prosperity foritsneighbours, and needs a free and open Indo-Pacific to protect trade and telecommunication connections.
David Vaeafe, programme manager at non-governmental organisation Pacific Cooperation Foundation, said the relationship with the Pacific was not all about money but about listening and understanding what the region needs.
"New Zealand's foreign policy towards the Pacific is slowly evolving and engaging from being 'you shouldn't do this' to consulting and being part of that process," he said.
Also read |Senior White House official Kurt Campbell visits Solomon Islands after it signed security pact with China
Five Eyes Criticisms
A year ago, there were questions over Wellington's commitment to the Five Eyes alliance with Australia, Britain, Canada and the United States, after Mahuta said Wellington was uncomfortable with expanding the role of the group.
There had been criticism after New Zealand opted not to sign joint statements from other Five Eyes members, including one on Hong Kong and another on the origins of COVID-19.
White House Indo-Pacific coordinator Kurt Campbelltold a business summit earlier this month that New Zealand's underestimation ofsecurityrisks in the past appeared unlikely to be an issue.
"I think there is an understanding that the challenges that are presenting themselves on the global stage are not so distant - they're closer and they have direct implications," he said.
Already New Zealand and Japan have announced plans to increasesecurityties and other moves are afoot.
Mahuta visited Fiji at the end of March and signed an agreement that among things will facilitate information on sharedsecuritychallenges.
Also read |Security deal with China won't affect peace, says Solomon Islands prime minister
At the start of the month, a partly New Zealand-backed tuna processing plant for theSolomonIslandsthat is set to create more than 5,500 jobs was announced.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade has quietly shuffled more money into Pacific development cooperation budget for 2021-2024, according to changes made onitswebsite. The fund has been increased since December by nearlyNZ$120 million ($75 million) to $1.55 billion.
New Zealand's budget on Thursday will likely give further detail on Pacific spending with New Zealand's defence minister previously highlighting the region as a priority.
"New Zealand is quite strongly aligned to the United States and Australia," VUW's Ayson said. "That doesn't mean we always see eye-to-eye and it doesn't mean the we're as closely aligned as Australia, but New Zealand'ssecurityalliance is quite strong."
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