Hugh Bailey: Here’s what this year’s elections mean for CT 2022: Nothing – The Advocate

There are two kinds of blue states, which can be defined as states you can safely put in the Democratic presidential column and have uncompetitive Senate races. There are some that go blue all the way down the ballot, including for governor. This is California and New York. Then there are those that support Democrats in federal elections but are perfectly willing to support a Republican for governor, given the right circumstances. This is Massachusetts and Maryland, and maybe Virginia.

How about Connecticut? Well find out more over the next year, but it has tended more toward the latter kind. Governors races are close here, and could be again next year, despite a wide margin in party registration in favor of Democrats. No one, though, thinks that means our electoral votes are in doubt in the near-term.

All of which highlights why its important not to draw too many conclusions for next year from Tuesdays election results.

Republicans had a good day, and its important to understand why. Its just as important to remember that whichever party is in the White House typically suffers in off-year elections and then again in the midterms. Were in a never-ending cycle of wave and reprisal as the parties trade control of the federal government, and even a literal assault on the nations seat of political power less than a year ago was not enough to break that cycle. Instead, the party that countenanced that attack has been granted renewed political momentum as if nothing happened.

Regardless, it would be dumb to ignore the patterns. Democrats performed poorly in both New Jersey and Virginia, and are likely to struggle in next years elections, too, no matter what legislation ultimately passes Congress. That this pattern continually repeats itself doesnt make it less serious.

Connecticut didnt have any statewide races this year, but votes in nearly every town for local races gave enough grist for observers to draw conclusions, not necessarily based on reality. Republicans are convinced theyre back in the electoral picture after a series of wins Tuesday, but it wasnt all good news for them.

The biggest story nationally, after all, was whats been shorthanded as Critical Race Theory, which (a) doesnt really exist in the context its usually discussed even as (b) the winning Virginia candidate continually railed against it. We should expect this winning formula to be repeated across the nation in the coming year, pundits tell us.

But that strategy was taken for a test run here in Connecticut, in Guilford, for instance, and it was soundly defeated. Connecticut is no ones idea of a post-racial utopia, but neither is it apparently in the mood for the latest conservative moral panic. The Guilford news should give pause to anyone who thinks Connecticut Republicans can replicate what we just saw in Virginia.

So how will Republicans in Connecticut capitalize on momentum from races they did win? A good start might be laying off the social media for a while. Whoever is behind the official Connecticut Republican Party Twitter feed got into a fight just before Election Day first with a Democratic lawmaker and eventually with the entire internet by arguing that Nazis were a left-wing phenomenon because their official name included the word socialist.

Thats not only untrue historically but is an exceedingly odd subject for an official party organ to go to the mat over. Its fine to say it doesnt matter what happens on Twitter and that voters dont care, but a party that wants to be taken seriously should maybe attempt to present a dignified online appearance.

The most important takeaway from Tuesday, though, is that no one knows anything. Republicans are likely to do well in 2022 because thats what historical patterns show, and everyone whose opinion matters has decided Jan. 6 is some kind of aberration wed all be better off moving past. Its worth remembering, though, that a good national environment did not help the party get over the top in 2010 or 2014 in Connecticut, so it will take more than general anti-Biden feelings to get a win here.

What would be best would be for everyone to lay off the 2022 prognostications altogether. This years elections will have real consequences, but not in terms of predicting the future. Well all find out what happens over the next year. Then, if history is any guide, we can start collectively obsessing about 2024.

Hugh Bailey is editorial page editor of the New Haven Register and Connecticut Post. He can be reached at hbailey@hearstmediact.com.

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Hugh Bailey: Here's what this year's elections mean for CT 2022: Nothing - The Advocate