There are two kinds of blue states, which can be defined as states you can safely put in the Democratic presidential column and have uncompetitive Senate races. There are some that go blue all the way down the ballot, including for governor. This is California and New York. Then there are those that support Democrats in federal elections but are perfectly willing to support a Republican for governor, given the right circumstances. This is Massachusetts and Maryland, and maybe Virginia.
How about Connecticut? Well find out more over the next year, but it has tended more toward the latter kind. Governors races are close here, and could be again next year, despite a wide margin in party registration in favor of Democrats. No one, though, thinks that means our electoral votes are in doubt in the near-term.
All of which highlights why its important not to draw too many conclusions for next year from Tuesdays election results.
Republicans had a good day, and its important to understand why. Its just as important to remember that whichever party is in the White House typically suffers in off-year elections and then again in the midterms. Were in a never-ending cycle of wave and reprisal as the parties trade control of the federal government, and even a literal assault on the nations seat of political power less than a year ago was not enough to break that cycle. Instead, the party that countenanced that attack has been granted renewed political momentum as if nothing happened.
Regardless, it would be dumb to ignore the patterns. Democrats performed poorly in both New Jersey and Virginia, and are likely to struggle in next years elections, too, no matter what legislation ultimately passes Congress. That this pattern continually repeats itself doesnt make it less serious.
Connecticut didnt have any statewide races this year, but votes in nearly every town for local races gave enough grist for observers to draw conclusions, not necessarily based on reality. Republicans are convinced theyre back in the electoral picture after a series of wins Tuesday, but it wasnt all good news for them.
The biggest story nationally, after all, was whats been shorthanded as Critical Race Theory, which (a) doesnt really exist in the context its usually discussed even as (b) the winning Virginia candidate continually railed against it. We should expect this winning formula to be repeated across the nation in the coming year, pundits tell us.
But that strategy was taken for a test run here in Connecticut, in Guilford, for instance, and it was soundly defeated. Connecticut is no ones idea of a post-racial utopia, but neither is it apparently in the mood for the latest conservative moral panic. The Guilford news should give pause to anyone who thinks Connecticut Republicans can replicate what we just saw in Virginia.
So how will Republicans in Connecticut capitalize on momentum from races they did win? A good start might be laying off the social media for a while. Whoever is behind the official Connecticut Republican Party Twitter feed got into a fight just before Election Day first with a Democratic lawmaker and eventually with the entire internet by arguing that Nazis were a left-wing phenomenon because their official name included the word socialist.
Thats not only untrue historically but is an exceedingly odd subject for an official party organ to go to the mat over. Its fine to say it doesnt matter what happens on Twitter and that voters dont care, but a party that wants to be taken seriously should maybe attempt to present a dignified online appearance.
The most important takeaway from Tuesday, though, is that no one knows anything. Republicans are likely to do well in 2022 because thats what historical patterns show, and everyone whose opinion matters has decided Jan. 6 is some kind of aberration wed all be better off moving past. Its worth remembering, though, that a good national environment did not help the party get over the top in 2010 or 2014 in Connecticut, so it will take more than general anti-Biden feelings to get a win here.
What would be best would be for everyone to lay off the 2022 prognostications altogether. This years elections will have real consequences, but not in terms of predicting the future. Well all find out what happens over the next year. Then, if history is any guide, we can start collectively obsessing about 2024.
Hugh Bailey is editorial page editor of the New Haven Register and Connecticut Post. He can be reached at hbailey@hearstmediact.com.
Read more:
Hugh Bailey: Here's what this year's elections mean for CT 2022: Nothing - The Advocate
- Travel & Resources: DELHI / NEW DELHI - Utopia [Last Updated On: June 15th, 2016] [Originally Added On: June 15th, 2016]
- Travel & Resources: DELHI / NEW DELHI - Utopia [Last Updated On: June 16th, 2016] [Originally Added On: June 16th, 2016]
- Utopia - New World Encyclopedia [Last Updated On: June 16th, 2016] [Originally Added On: June 16th, 2016]
- Utopia (book) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia [Last Updated On: June 17th, 2016] [Originally Added On: June 17th, 2016]
- Chanel Mirage, Utopia, New Moon Illusion d'Ombre ... [Last Updated On: July 31st, 2016] [Originally Added On: July 31st, 2016]
- New Utopia Design Build - Los Angeles, CA, US 90012 [Last Updated On: August 14th, 2016] [Originally Added On: August 14th, 2016]
- THE NEW UTOPIA - Libertarian [Last Updated On: September 20th, 2016] [Originally Added On: September 20th, 2016]
- NEW TOWN UTOPIA by Christopher Ian Smith Kickstarter [Last Updated On: October 20th, 2016] [Originally Added On: October 20th, 2016]
- Travel & Resources: HONG KONG - Gay Asia and... - Utopia [Last Updated On: December 7th, 2016] [Originally Added On: December 7th, 2016]
- THE NEW CHAIN REACTION - Game Show Utopia [Last Updated On: December 7th, 2016] [Originally Added On: December 7th, 2016]
- DELHI / NEW DELHI: Massage and Spas - Utopia [Last Updated On: December 7th, 2016] [Originally Added On: December 7th, 2016]
- First Listen: Sinkane, 'Life & Livin' It' - NPR [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2017]
- Who is authorized to bind your family business to contracts? - Lexology (registration) [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2017]
- Meanwhile in Canada Things Are Just as Bad - New York Times [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2017]
- Stellaris: Utopia expansion lets you craft megastructural ringworlds - PC Gamer [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2017]
- 'Stellaris' Utopia DLC Gets First Trailer; Will Introduce New Buildings And Perks - iDigitalTimes.com [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2017]
- Utopia Pipeline project to bring 300 temporary jobs to New Philadelphia - New Philadelphia Times Reporter [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2017]
- With violin in hand, Mark Menzies finds hope for the future in the past - Los Angeles Times [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2017]
- Revolution: Russian Art review from utopia to the gulag, via ... - The Guardian [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- Brooklyn's A/D/O Co-Working Space Is Building a Utopia for Creatives of All Kinds - Artsy [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- Austra encourages listeners to imagine new, bolder futures - San Francisco Chronicle [Last Updated On: February 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 9th, 2017]
- Michael Loong Proposes New, Sustainable Ideology to Achieve Utopia in China - Satellite PR News (press release) [Last Updated On: February 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 9th, 2017]
- French photographer builds supernatural Astana, calls it Utopia of the 21st Century - Astana Times [Last Updated On: February 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 9th, 2017]
- The village aiming to create a white utopia - BBC News [Last Updated On: February 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 9th, 2017]
- A notable show BAMPFA's 'Hippie Modernism: The Struggle for ... - Berkeleyside [Last Updated On: February 10th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 10th, 2017]
- British Airways Concorde 'Alpha Foxtrot' Arrives at New Bristol Home - AirlineGeeks.com (blog) [Last Updated On: February 11th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 11th, 2017]
- In praise of utopias, not dystopias: Salutin - Toronto Star [Last Updated On: February 11th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 11th, 2017]
- The Bannon-Trump Arc of History - American Spectator [Last Updated On: February 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 13th, 2017]
- Everybody's Pop-Up Shop Throws a Wild AntiFashion Week Party With Adwoa Aboah - Vogue.com [Last Updated On: February 15th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 15th, 2017]
- Plotting 'No-Place' in 'Utopia Neighborhood Club' - Seattle Weekly [Last Updated On: February 15th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 15th, 2017]
- Utopia releases its next version of master data governance solution ... - SDTimes.com [Last Updated On: February 15th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 15th, 2017]
- Bruno Ganz on New Film About Last Days of East Germany: 'This Is a Subject That Will Never Let Me Go' - Variety [Last Updated On: February 17th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 17th, 2017]
- New Barbarians: Inside Rolling Stones' Wild Seventies Spin-Off - RollingStone.com [Last Updated On: February 17th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 17th, 2017]
- Drought-crazed utopia flushes away common sense - NewHampshire.com [Last Updated On: February 17th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 17th, 2017]
- Lenkom Theater: From Soviet utopia to post-modern dystopia - Russia Beyond the Headlines [Last Updated On: February 18th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 18th, 2017]
- GHOST To Record "Darker" New Album This Summer, Tease Completely New Lineup - Metal Injection.net [Last Updated On: February 18th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 18th, 2017]
- Protest Cabaret: Ithaca's Resistance - Cornell University The Cornell Daily Sun [Last Updated On: February 18th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 18th, 2017]
- Fighting for Utopia in Tough Times - AlterNet [Last Updated On: February 22nd, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 22nd, 2017]
- Mardi Gras brings on the fun - Tullahoma News and Guardian [Last Updated On: February 22nd, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 22nd, 2017]
- Angela Henderson-Bentley: New take on Jack the Ripper an idea whose 'Time' has come - Huntington Herald Dispatch [Last Updated On: February 23rd, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 23rd, 2017]
- Knowledge can fight ignorance: New speakers series will shed light on Yemen - Detroit Metro Times [Last Updated On: February 23rd, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 23rd, 2017]
- Hygge Is Where the Heart Is - New York Times [Last Updated On: February 24th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 24th, 2017]
- Utopia is coming, with a basic income for all - The Times (subscription) [Last Updated On: February 26th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 26th, 2017]
- Government shakeups and political unrest are coming to Stellaris in its Utopia expansion - PCGamesN [Last Updated On: February 26th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 26th, 2017]
- Rutger Bregman: 'We could cut the working week by a third' - The Guardian [Last Updated On: February 28th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 28th, 2017]
- The board hoard: your guide to the best new board games - The Guardian [Last Updated On: February 28th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 28th, 2017]
- Tempted To Move Out Of The US? New Zealand Wants To Help You Escape - Forbes [Last Updated On: February 28th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 28th, 2017]
- THE SOUND OF MUSIC to Welcome New 'Georg von Trapp' on Tour in Hershey - Broadway World [Last Updated On: February 28th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 28th, 2017]
- Stellaris Utopia Gameplay Expansion Out In April - Attack of the Fanboy [Last Updated On: February 28th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 28th, 2017]
- At BAMPFA, 'Hippie Modernism' Proves the Fight for Utopia is Far from Over - KQED [Last Updated On: February 28th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 28th, 2017]
- Stellaris Utopia Set To Launch April 6th - One Angry Gamer (blog) [Last Updated On: March 1st, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 1st, 2017]
- Railcar derailment in Utopia due to vandalism: Cando Rail Services - Simcoe.com [Last Updated On: March 1st, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 1st, 2017]
- Stellaris: Utopia Path to Ascension release date trailer - Gameplanet [Last Updated On: March 1st, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 1st, 2017]
- JUSTIN JOHNSON: It's a TRAP! - SCNow [Last Updated On: March 1st, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 1st, 2017]
- Watch brutal Xenomorph attack in new 'Alien: Covenant' trailer - CNET [Last Updated On: March 1st, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 1st, 2017]
- Dr. John to headline Utopia Fest in final year at Four Sisters Ranch - austin360 (blog) [Last Updated On: March 2nd, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 2nd, 2017]
- Want utopia? Start with universal basic income and a 15-hour work week - Wired.co.uk [Last Updated On: March 2nd, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 2nd, 2017]
- Extreme Channel 4 reality challenge Mutiny makes its sailors suffer - iNews [Last Updated On: March 4th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 4th, 2017]
- Utopia Frozen Yogurt and Coffee House | Ellensburg, WA [Last Updated On: March 4th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 4th, 2017]
- March 4, 2017 - EDP Foundation - Utopia/Dystopia / Hctor Zamora: Order and Progress - E-Flux [Last Updated On: March 4th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 4th, 2017]
- Utopia for Realists and How We Can Get There by Rutger Bregman digested read - The Guardian [Last Updated On: March 5th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 5th, 2017]
- A taste of 'Utopia' - Otago Daily Times [Last Updated On: March 5th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 5th, 2017]
- Father John Misty references Taylor Swift in new song, 'Total Entertainment Forever' - EW.com [Last Updated On: March 5th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 5th, 2017]
- Time After Time May Be Your New Bad TV Obsession - Gizmodo [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2017]
- 'Time After Time' delivers Jack the Ripper to modern-day New York - Long Beach Press Telegram [Last Updated On: March 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 7th, 2017]
- Why everyone hates the GOP's new health plan - The Week Magazine [Last Updated On: March 8th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 8th, 2017]
- A modern utopia: Inside the UK's first women-only housing community - International Business Times UK [Last Updated On: March 8th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 8th, 2017]
- Utopia Now! - Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies [Last Updated On: March 11th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 11th, 2017]
- Hello Cuba, Adios Utopia: Cuban Art in Texas - Observer [Last Updated On: March 11th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 11th, 2017]
- Whole of It: 'Free Cake at the Top' - Scottsbluff Star Herald [Last Updated On: March 12th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 12th, 2017]
- Utopia in the Time of Trump - lareviewofbooks [Last Updated On: March 12th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 12th, 2017]
- The Nature of Robots - Film School Rejects [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2017]
- Utopia Multimedia Festival brings artistic talents together in one place - Taranaki Daily News [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2017]
- The Electoral College is right for New Mexico - Albuquerque Journal [Last Updated On: March 19th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 19th, 2017]
- Equal writes and the best new women fiction: Book reviews - Express.co.uk [Last Updated On: March 19th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 19th, 2017]
- Liberal America Has A Sweden Fetish - GOOD Magazine [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2017]
- Utopia Creations travels to Florida - Journalism.co.uk [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2017]
- A Well-Ventilated Utopia - The New York Review of Books [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2017]
- 500 years after Sir Thomas More's Utopia, what have we learned? - The Sydney Morning Herald [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2017]
- This Swiss Startup Is Bringing AI to the Music Label Business - Bloomberg [Last Updated On: March 23rd, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 23rd, 2017]