Conference Tournament Betting Report & Trends: Liability On Arizona – Gaming Today

Las Vegas sportsbooks see heavy college basketball betting action on Arizona (Photo by Christopher Hook/Icon Sportswire)

Thirteen months ago, a patron at one of MGM Resorts many Las Vegas Strip outlets wagered $500 on Oregon State, at 200-to-1 odds, to win the 2021 Pac-12 hoops tournament at T-Mobile Arena.

The Beavers had dropped their regular-season finale, at home to rival Oregon, after having won three in a row. They went into the league tourney at 14-12 overall, 10-10 in the Pac-12.

Nothing spectacular or special, by any angle or metric. OSU went on to beat UCLA, 83-79, in overtime, again the Ducks (75-64), and then Colorado (70-68) to win the event and secure a bid to the NCAA Tournament.

In the NCAAs, OSU beat Tennessee, Oklahoma State, and Loyola-Chicago before bowing out against Houston in the Elite Eight. But lets back up.

Five hundred bucks, at 200-1 someone won $100,000.

Somebody got us pretty good, says BetMGM director of trading Jeff Stoneback. Lost six figures on Oregon State, which went to (win in) the Sweet 16, to one person. But talk about a turnaround; the Beavers have won three games this season, and only one in the Pac-12.

At the South Point, sportsbook director Chris Andrews and his team posted their Pac-12 odds Monday. Interest trickled in, but he didnt pause a nanosecond when asked about his shops biggest liability come NCAA Tournament time next week.

Arizona, no question, he says. Oh, god yeah. We have a lot of Arizona money, a ton of money, on the Wildcats to win the entire thing. Arizona is our biggest liability.

With a new coach, former Gonzaga assistant Tommy Lloyd, and nearly a completely new roster, No. 2 Arizona forged a 28-3 regular season. Its lone pocks are away losses to Tennessee, UCLA, and Colorado.

Their unselfishness, leading the country with a 20.1 assists average, is part of the Wildcats excellence. Theyre also No. 5 in 2-point shooting, at 57.8 percent, and boast top-10 defensive efficiency, allowing a paltry 0.890 points per possession.

We also have a little bit of Arizona State money, at 50-1, but nothing crazy, Andrews said Tuesday. Thats about the only one, but 50-1 is not that outrageous. Plus, we have two locations in Mesquite, near the Arizona border, so well get some Arizona money from those guys.

Also, we took a little money on Xavier to win the Big East. But, again, nothing crazy.

An Oregon State-like windfall has not been had, so far, in 2022, as favorites held serve in eight of the first 11 conference tourneys.

Bellarmine (10-to-1 odds at the South Point) in the Atlantic Sun, Delaware (8-1) in the Colonial Athletic Association, and Wright State (5-1) in the Horizon League were the longest shots to have won their tournament crowns.

The elite leagues have just begun their postseason events, and the Vegas consensus indeed appears to favor Arizona as the top team in money, tickets, and attention.

That interest is exacerbated at BetMGM, whose properties line the Strip and nearly surround T-Mobile.

Stoneback expected Arizona to have five times as much money on it than any other Pac-12 squad. Ultimately, the Wildcats might garner as much as 75 percent of the total Pac-12 tickets written, he says, compared to the rest of the league combined.

Vegas odds on Arizona winning the Pac-12 tourney ranged from -130 to -175. Should the Wildcats play an opponent whose fans dont travel well, it will not shock Stoneback to see a 100-1 ticket advantage in Arizonas favor.

Our future odds might be a little bit higher on other teams, because of the money were getting on Arizona, says Stoneback. But we pretty much stay at the market price. We dont really stray away from it, just to give the professional bettors a bargain, or whatnot.

We just ride it out and hope it works out well.

Oregon State was 150-1 at Circa Sports and 500-1 at the South Point, but it showed that its stardust allotment was extinguished a year ago in a 14-point defeat to Oregon on Wednesday.

A doctor pal who did his undergraduate work at Arizona State asked me to pick up a futures ticket on his alma mater Tuesday, and I found 110-to-1 odds at Circa on the Sun Devils.

Alas, ASU 2022 was no OSU 2021, either. Wednesday, the Devils led by 17 with less than 14 minutes left but lost when Stanfords James Keefe picked up a loose ball and sank an eight-foot fling at the buzzer.

In the Big East on Wednesday, Xavier wilted toward the end of regulation against Butler and lost to the Bulldogs in overtime.

So Andrews and the South Point were alleviated of any worry in conference futures liability regarding both Arizona State and Xavier. Once again, its good to be the house.

Among the big boys, keep an eye on Texas Tech, which is 20-11 ATS this season and a 7.5-point favorite against Iowa State in the Big 12 tourney late Thursday night, according to DraftKings. The Red Raiders are about +275 to win the Big 12 tourney, at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Mo.

In the SEC, Alabama games have gone 20-10-1 to the over this season. The Crimson Tide vs. Vanderbilt total is 151 for Thursdays tilt inside Amelie Arena in Tampa, Fla.

Also, Texas A&M games are 20-10 to over, and the Aggies-Florida total Thursday at noon ET is 134.5 at Amelie.

In the mid-majors, the South Point has Toledo the -110 favorite to win the Mid-American. The Rockets are 22-8 ATS, second to only Middle Tennessees scintillating 21-7-1 in the nation.

Toledo is a 16.5-point favorite against Central Michigan at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse in Cleveland.

In the Big West, in the debut event for the new Dollar Loan Center in the southern Vegas foothills, UC-Irvine is the South Points 3-to-1 favorite.

The Anteaters, whose games have been 15-6-2 to the under this season, play UC-Santa Barbara, and the game has a 125.5 total. Ten of UCSBs past 14 games have finished under. The Gauchos are second in the nation over their past three games, shooting 55.4 percent. The game is a pick em.

Long Beach State, one of the countrys best cover teams at 18-9, is a 5-point favorite Thursday against Cal State Bakersfield, whose 6-16-2 ATS record is one of the worst in college hoops.

Many professionals and expert bettors relish the next few days when there will be as many as 50 games on the menu.

To Stoneback, this is the best week in Las Vegas for college basketball, especially considering customers have been able to attend any of the five conference tournaments being staged in the city.

If you like to bet college basketball and you like to attend college basketball games, and youre a college basketball fan, he says, this is the Utopia week, more than next week.

Next week, though, the NCAA Tournament begins, with 16 first-round games on both Thursday and Friday, and eight second-round tilts apiece on Saturday and Sunday.

Andrews says the great paradox is that the conference tournaments offer such exceptional games, but the real wagering commences next week with the NCAAs.

Definitely an appetizer, he says of the conference tourneys. Ive been saying it for years. The basketball is great, but the betting is not fantastic. Maybe its just because our numbers [power ratings and point spreads] are pretty solid at this point.

But the next phase, when we get into the NCAA Tournament, you have a lot of matchups that have never happened. THAT is when the betting really goes crazy.

Also read: Can I bet on college sports in my state? | Big Ten tourney odds | Big 12 tourney odds | SEC tourney odds

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Conference Tournament Betting Report & Trends: Liability On Arizona - Gaming Today