Where NATO Forces Are Going In Response to Russia’s Military Buildup Around Ukraine – 19FortyFive

As Russian troops continue to mass around Ukraine, the United States and many of its NATO allies have begun deploying combat troops, warships, and aircraft to Eastern Europe to reassure anxious member states bordering Ukraine and Belarus.

Washington has dispatched 3,000 airborne and mechanized infantry soldiers and a half-dozen F-15 fighters, while London is deploying more than 1,000 additional troops. An additional 8,500 U.S. troops remain on heightened alert status, meaning they could deploy on short notice, perhaps in event of Russian escalation in Ukraine.

Nonetheless, Washington and NATO leaders have emphasized the new troops would not be sent into Ukraine, neither preemptively nor in event of a Russian invasion. That is manifestly credible because the forces involved are relatively small, lack heavy armored vehicles, are widely dispersed, and dwarfed by the tens of thousands of troops Russia has arrayed in western Russia and Belarus.

Poland and the Baltic states are especially concerned with Moscows deployment to Belarus of 30,000 troops mostly from its faraway Eastern military District, along with advanced weapon including Iskander and S-400 missiles, and Su-35S fighters. Though conveniently positioned for an offensive on Kyiv, these forces are also on the borders of Poland, Lithuania and Latviacountries invaded by Moscow in 1939-1940. Currently, Russian battalions in Brest, Belarus (site of a border fortress Soviet troops captured from Poland in 1939) are just 110 miles east of Warsaw.

Further to the south, Romania and Bulgaria are alarmed by Russias large naval buildup on the Black Sea, and the possibility that neighboring Ukraine could become a Russian-occupied warzone. Putins recently issued demands that NATO withdraw all international troops from these countries are not well received either.

That said, two NATO members bordering Ukraine have not requested NATO deployments yet: Hungary (which has warmer relations with Moscow) and Slovakia.

This article outlines where additional NATO forces are deploying in response to Russias buildup around Ukraine, with additional commentary regarding the capabilities of U.S. forces. It also explains what NATO deployments were already present (rotated under the Enhanced Forward Presence policy) that were not there in response to Moscows most recent actions.

Poland

The 82nd is a legendary airborne infantry division based in Fort Bragg, North Carolina. Such light infantry units and their towed artillery can be rapidly airlifted across the globe, but are vulnerable to Russian-style mechanized forces due to lacking armored vehicles for mobility, protection and firepower.

Preexisting forces

Poland already hosts 4,500 U.S. troops (going on 5,500), plus a rotating multinational battalion of around 1,000 troops from Croatia, Romania, U.K. and U.S.

Germany

The XVIII Corps, also based at Fort Bragg, is the long-standing parent formation for U.S. rapid response divisions, notably the 82nd and 101st Airborne Divisions, and the light infantry of the 10th Mountain Division. The 300 soldiers therefore will provide additional support to the troops from the 82nd, as well as likely prepare the ground in the event Washington decides to send more troops to Europe.

Romania

This 2nd Cavalry has been stationed in Vilseck, Germany since 2006. It disposes of three infantry and one scout squadrons (ie. battalions) all mounted on 18-ton Stryker 88 wheeled armored personnel carriers, as well as an engineer and field artillery squadrons and other support units.

Though more affordable to operate and easier to transport, the Stryker was criticized in the past for lacking the firepower to counter Russian mechanized forces. Recently, the Army has sought to address this shortcoming by integrating new turrets on some Strykers with 30-millimeter cannons (Stryker Dragoon) and Javelin missiles (CROWS-J). The 2nd Cavalry happens to have been the lead unit to test the up-gunned Stryker.

Preexisting NATO Deployment

Since 2017, theres been a 5,000-strong NATO Multinational Brigade Southeast based in Craiova, composed 80% of Romanian troops, but with international elements, especially from Poland and Bulgaria. Italy currently deploys four Eurofighters and 140 personnel for air policing; they are due to be relieved by German Eurofighters.

900 U.S. military personnel are based in Romania, including air cavalry and armored elements at Mikhail Kogalniceau Airbase, and USAF drone operators at Campia Turzii.

Russia-Romania relations have been poisoned by a frozen conflict in neighboring Moldova, formerly part of Romania. In the 1990s, Russias 14th Guards Army intervened to prop up a separatist republic on the east bank of the Dniester River called Transnistria. Some analysts Russian forces remaining there could be activated for military action in Ukraine.

Moscow, in turn, professes outrage at the U.S. Aegis Ashore missile defense system deployed in Deveselu in southwestern Romania, claiming its launchers could also fire offensive Tomahawk land-attack missiles.

Bulgaria

Like Romania, Bulgaria is another NATO state with a Black Sea coastline. Russias demands that NATO withdraw foreign troops from Romania and Bulgaria havent been appreciated.

A U.S. Air Force F-35A Lightning II fighter jet performs during the California International Airshow in Salinas, California, Oct. 30, 2021. The F-35A is a fifth-generation multi-role fighter platform. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Andrew D. Sarver)

Preexisting Forces

Bulgaria is presently hosting 200 U.S. mechanized troops for training through June.

The Baltics: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania

The Baltics have long been vulnerable to encompassing Russian forces in Kaliningrad, Belarus, and western Russia, so Moscows current military flex is raising alarm. NATO contingents rotated there would only serve as a speed bump or trip-wire against a serious Russian attack, serving to buy time and boost political will until more substantial forces could enter the theater.

U.S. Military

Fast and heavy-lifting, the two-seat F-15Es are capable ground-attack aircraft that can still carry their weight in an air superiority role. However, they are not stealth aircraft, so the Air Force would avoid dispatching these too deeply into airspace interdicted by Russias extensive air defense systems.

An F-15E flies watch over the skies of Afghanistan on July 30. The F-15 and crew are deployed to Bagram Air Field, Afghanistan, from Mountain Home Air Force Base, Idaho.

British military

London is reportedly planning dispatch of up to 1,200 British Army, Royal Marine, and Royal Air Force personnel to unspecified destinations in the Baltics.

Danish Military

Pre-existing Deployments

Estonia hosts a rotating multinational mechanized battlegroup of 900 personnel, currently including troops from Denmark, France, Iceland and the United Kingdom. Four Belgian F-16 jets are based there on air-policing duties.

Lithuania hosts a multinational mechanized battalion with 1,200 personnel, including troops from Belgium, the Czech Republic, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway; and a U.S. mechanized infantry battalion with 500 soldiers. Four Polish F-16 jets are based there for Baltic air policing.

Latvia also has a Canadian-led multinational battlegroup with 1,500 personnel.

The Black Sea

British Royal Navy

Spanish Navy

Russia is heavily reinforcing its formidable Black Sea Fleet with warships and amphibious landing craft from Russias Northern, Baltic and Pacific currently in transit via the Mediterranean. Despite Russias extensive maritime strike capabilities in the Black Seas confines, Spain, France and the United Kingdom have dispatched ships to patrol its international waters and surveil Russian military activity.

Far more powerful NATO forces cruise in the neighboring Mediterranean, including Italian, French, British and U.S. carrier strike groups, counting dozens of F-35B stealth jump jets, and Rafale-M and Super Hornet fighters.

NATO Advisors in Ukraine

Since 2014, several hundred NATO military advisors have been deployed to Ukraine to train and advise its military. U.S. and British troops are also instructing Ukrainian troops on use of recently transferred NLAW, Javelin and Stinger missiles.

These advisors are not equipped for serious combat, and would surely be instructed to avoid combat with Russian forces should they invade. However, they do enhance the proficiency of Ukraines armed forces, and should Russia attack Ukraine, some possibly might remain in country to advise and liaise with Ukraines military.

Summary

Moscow predictably has decried the deployments as destructive stepping stones to World War III. But NATOs recent deployments are meant for signaling, not to fight a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Thats not an assertion reliant on trusting Washington press releases, just observing material reality.

NATOs latest deployments lack the mass and heavy weapons to counter the hundreds of armored vehicles and heavy artillery and missile systems Russia has concentrated in the region. Even the heavier elements of NATOs preexisting Enhanced Forward Presence amount to roughly a half-dozen mechanized battalions, compared to the 70 to 100 Russian battalion tactical groups arrayed in Belarus and western Russia.

The deployments simply assure NATOs eastern members the alliance will put its troops on the line to protect them, particularly as Putin contemplates pulling the trigger on what could become the most destructive armed conflict in Europe since World War II.

Sbastien Roblin writes on the technical, historical, and political aspects of international security and conflict for publications including the 19FortyFive,The National Interest,NBC News,Forbes.com,andWar is Boring. He holds a Masters degree from Georgetown University and served with the Peace Corps in China. You can follow his articles on Twitter.

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Where NATO Forces Are Going In Response to Russia's Military Buildup Around Ukraine - 19FortyFive