In December 2021, President Joe Biden reportedly offered to convene a meeting between North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members and Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the future of Russias concerns relative to NATO writ large.REF In particular, the Kremlin is unhappy with the close relationship between NATO and Kyiv, and the possibility of Ukraine someday becoming a member of the Alliance.
This offer of a meeting comes on the heels of a large-scale Russian military mobilization on Ukraines borders, a Kremlin-backed and Kremlin-manufactured migrant crisis along Polands, Latvias, and Lithuanias borders with Belarus, a Moscow-inspired natural-gas shortage in Eastern Europe, and regular Russian-sponsored cyberattacks against the U.S. and its allies. Proposing a meeting between NATO and Russia under the current circumstances is a diplomatic blunder by the Biden Administration.
Rather than offering to meet without preconditions, the U.S. should support a meeting only once Russia meets certain conditions. Furthermore, if Russia meets the conditions and this meeting comes to fruition, it should take place only through the NATORussia Council (NRC) that includes all 30 members of the Alliance. A discussion that leaves a majority of members out, especially those from Central and Eastern Europe, would only embolden Putin to make more aggressive demands and undermine NATO collective defense at a time when allied trust in President Biden has cratered.
The Biden Administration should clarify the U.S. position as supporting a meeting of the NRC only once certain conditions are met. Furthermore, the President should reiterate that NATOs open-door policy is not up for negotiation, nor does Russia have a veto right over any nations membership in NATO. President Biden should tread carefully, making sure that a diplomatic blunder does not become a monumental mistake.
The 1997 Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security between NATO and the Russian Federation (NATORussia Founding Act) created the NATORussia Permanent Joint Council (PJC) in part to build increasing levels of trust, unity of purpose and habits of consultation and cooperation between NATO and Russia.REF The PJC was replaced by the NRC in 2002 as a result of the declaration on NATORussia Relations: A New Quality. The declaration states that [t]he NATO-Russia Council will serve as the principal structure and venue for advancing the relationship between NATO and Russia.REF Typically, NRC meetings occur at the level of ambassador, foreign minister, or defense minister, rarely at the heads of state and government level. The last such NRC meeting, which was attended by President Barack Obama, took place in November 2010 after the NATO Lisbon Summit.REF
In April 2014, following Russias invasion of Ukraine and illegal annexation of Crimea, NATO suspended
After a two-year suspension, NRC meetings resumed in 2016,REF with 10 meetings occurring between 2016 and 2019, the last in July 2019.REF In February 2020, NATO proposed a further NRC meeting, a proposal that Russia has yet to accept.
In October 2021, Russia suspended its mission to NATO after the Alliance withdrew the accreditation of eight Russian intelligence officers working at the Russian mission in Brussels.REF Shortly thereafter, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg reiterated the Alliances willingness to convene an NRC meeting.REF While NATORussia meetings at the political level have not taken place since 2019, military-to-military engagement has continued. For example, in February 2020, General Tod Wolters, NATOs Supreme Allied Commander Europe met his Russian counterpart in Baku, Azerbaijan, to aid in transparency and deconfliction measures.REF While the usefulness of consistent military-to-military engagement is evident, the U.S. governments and NATOs willingness to continue NRC meetings despite Russias egregious actions is ill considered.
Russia prefers that issues related to NATORussian relations and the future of Ukraine be decided between the U.S. and Russia or with a small cadre of large European nations and the United States. The Biden Administration must resist the temptation to assent to such a format. Any discussion on NATORussian relations should be conducted through the NRC format; furthermore, the U.S. must insist that any discussions on the future of Ukraine include Ukraine at the table as an equal partner.
Putins behavior resembles that of the czars more than that of his Soviet predecessors. Everything this imperial leader does aims to maximize and secure his personal power. The impact of his reign has been bad for Russia. In recent years, democracy has been in retreat, basic freedoms (of speech, assembly, and a free press) have been eroded, minority groups and political opposition figures are often oppressedand sometimes killedand the countrys economy is in tatters.
To distract his people from their many woes, Putin has pursued a dangerously aggressive and expansionist foreign policy. Along the way, he has undone the postWorld War II world order and undermined Americas strategic interests in many parts of the world.
Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 and continues to occupy, illegally, 20 percent of that countrys internationally recognized territory. Six years later, Putin invaded Ukraine and illegally annexed the Crimean Peninsulathe first time one European country used military force to annex part of another since the days of Hitler. Russia still fuels a separatist conflict in the eastern part of Ukraine that did not exist before 2014. Since April 2021, Russia has been stationing troops along the eastern border of Ukraine for a potential invasion. Its troop numbers currently sit at more than 94,000,REF and that number could increase to 175,000REF in the coming weeks.
Russia has sowed anxiety and instability throughout most of the rest of Europe, as well. It has weaponized its natural gas exports to Europe, turning off the tap when countries dare go against its wishes. NATOs members and partners have been under constant cyberattack. Russia has used banned chemical weapons as part of assassination attempts of political opposition leaders and Russian dissidents across Europe. Russia has constantly meddled in elections in the United States and across Europe in an attempt to undermine legitimate state structures and democratic processes. Russia has even gone as far as to conduct military exercises simulating a nuclear strike against NATO member Poland.
When Russia decided in March 2014 to illegally annex Crimea and invade the Donbas region of Ukraine, it proved once again that it was no longer a trustworthy actor in the transatlantic community. NATO duly ceased meeting with Russia in the formal NRC format, but only briefly, with meetings resuming in 2016.
Before Russia is invited to meet with NATO at the head of state level, Moscow mustat a minimummeet the following seven conditions. Russia must:
The Biden Administrations offer of a meeting to discuss the future of Russias concerns relative to NATO writ large is a highwire act that could easily play into Putins hands by lending credence to false Russian propaganda narratives. Before engaging with Russia any further, the Biden Administration should:
Under the current circumstances, President Biden is wrongto suggestthat Moscow should be awarded a high-level meeting with NATO. The NRC should only meet again at the heads of state/government level once Russia demonstrates that it is a responsible and collegiate actor in the transatlantic community. Realistically, this is unlikely to occur while Putin is in power. The Russian people will continue to suffer, and Russian influence on the international stage will continue to be marginalized. Now is the time for U.S. leadership and strengthnot weakness and meekness.
Daniel Kochis is Senior Policy Analyst in European Affairs in the Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom, of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy, at The Heritage Foundation. Alexis Mrachek is Research Associate in Director of the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy of the Davis Institute. Luke Coffey is Director of the Allison Center.
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Seven Actions Russia Must Take Before Receiving Another Meeting with NATO - Heritage.org
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