Putin sets the stage for NATOs second act – The Hill

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) the most successful and enduring mutual security pact in history is about to start its second act. In Act 1, the United States played the leading role in deterring Russian aggression and keeping the peace in Europe. In Act 2, Europeans will take center stage.

With longtime neutrals Sweden and Finland knocking on its door, NATO likely will grow to 32 members. For the transatlantic allies, however, the wise course isnt merely to expand NATO, but to reinvent it.

How to seize that opportunity which goes well beyond hackneyed calls for greater burden-sharing should be the focal point of NATOs Madrid summit later this month.

NATO should be fundamentally reconfigured to reflect three geopolitical realities. First, since its creation in 1949, the alliance has expanded dramatically as many of Europes ancient feuds and rivalries have been subsumed within pan-European values and institutions.

Second, NATOs 27 European members (excluding Turkey) vastly exceed Russia in economic clout, population and military spending. Third, America inexorably is turning its strategic gaze to China and the balance of power in Asia.

All three developments point toward the same conclusion: Its time for Europe to cast aside the crutch of dependence on U.S. military might and assume primary responsibility for defending itself.

Whats brought Europe to this moment is not so much Russian President Vladimir Putins second invasion of Ukraine, but the Ukrainian peoples valiant and effective resistance. Their fight for freedom has revived and unified the democratic West, while also puncturing the myth of Russian military prowess.

At the end of World War II, there was no way a devastated and destitute Europe could stand up to a victorious Soviet Union without U.S. power. But the Soviet imperium dissolved decades ago, while Europe has steadily become more prosperous, more economically and politically intertwined, and largely liberal and democratic in outlook.

As a result, what Russian strategists call the correlation of forces has shifted decisively in Europes favor.

With a population of around 145 million, Russia has the worlds 11th largest economy with an annual Gross Domestic Product of $1.48 trillion. NATO is a juggernaut in comparison. Its 30 members have a combined population of nearly 604 million and GDP of $18 trillion.

But even if you take the United States out of the equation, our European allies are more than a match for Moscow in both economic and military terms. Germany, the United Kingdom, France and Italy all have economies larger than Russias. Moscow devotes about $66 billion a year to its military forces; these four NATO countries alone spend more than three times as much.

The key questions are whether Europe can muster the will to translate these enormous advantages into a credible military deterrent of its own, and whether this should happen within or outside of NATO.

Overreliance on American protection has had catastrophic effects on E.U. security, contend Vincent-Immanuel Herr and Martin Speer of Germanys Charlemagne Prize Academy. They and others propose a European army organized under the auspices of the European Union.

This is in keeping with French President Emmanuel Macrons ambitious call for Europe to embrace strategic autonomy and become a global foreign policy actor.

Former President Trumps abrasive America First policy convinced many Europeans that they cant rely on U.S. power in perpetuity. Given its preponderant strengths and demonstrated habits of cooperation, theres no longer any reason for Europeans to contract out their security to anyone else.

True, but it makes little sense to organize Europes common defense forces under the EU, which has no security remit or mutual defense assurances. If Sweden and Finland join, NATO will encompass almost all of Europe except four small countries. It has a unified command structure, Article 5s one for all, all for one guarantee and, crucially, North American partners.

As Europeans develop forces capable of protecting themselves from a Russian attack, the United States must stay engaged in NATO both as a strategic reserve and an arsenal for our democratic allies.

Whats more, while Britain and France are members of the nuclear club, they cant supplant Americas indispensable role in nuclear deterrence. Russias stockpile of more than 4,000 nuclear weapons is really all that remains of its former superpower status. Thats why Putin and his cronies keep raising the specter of nuclear escalation as the NATO allies funnel arms into Ukraine and clamp stringent sanctions on the Russian economy.

So far, Europe hasnt blinked. On the contrary, Germany has announced a $100 billion increase in military spending, and with the conspicuous exception of Hungary European governments also are moving to reduce their heavy reliance on Russian gas and oil.

By taking charge of their own security, Europeans would remove a major irritant in their relations with the United States, while also enabling Washington to devote more strategic attention and resources to shoring up stability and security in the Asia Pacific.

Already, Washingtons contribution to NATOs budget has fallen from 22 percent to 16 percent, roughly the same as Germanys. Over time, the United States should be able to bring home many of the 100,000 U.S. troops now stationed in Europe, while leaving smaller forces to act as a tripwire.

After 70 years of deference to Washington on security matters, European leaders will need to reacquaint themselves with the risks, responsibilities and moral ambiguities of wielding hard power. They (and especially Germans) also will need to question habits of passivity and pacifism and disabuse themselves of sanctimonious notions about the efficacy of their multilateral and soft-power approach to containing international conflicts.

Americans should welcome Europes return to the historical stage as a second liberal bulwark, alongside the United States, to defend the free world against the league of pugnacious autocracies led by Russia and China.

Will Marshallis president and founder of the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI).

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Putin sets the stage for NATOs second act - The Hill