PARIS The standoff with Russia over Ukraine enters a critical phase this week. The United States has snapped NATO to attention and moved forces east. Moscow has readied still more forces on the Ukraine border. But beneath those tensions, diplomatic avenues are being feverishly explored and the outlines of potential solutions, still amorphous, may be taking form.
President Biden meets Monday with Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and President Emmanuel Macron of France, at the same time, will visit his Russian counterpart, Vladimir V. Putin, in Moscow before traveling to Kyiv.
With the Biden administration staking out a hard line, Germany lying low and Mr. Putin seemingly determined to force a solution to Russias security grievances, it is Mr. Macron who has positioned himself at the center of the diplomacy in Europe. To Moscow, he is a quality interlocutor, as Mr. Putin called Mr. Macron, according to a senior official in the French presidency, speaking on the condition of anonymity in keeping with French government practice.
For Mr. Macron the chance to lead the effort to create a new European security architecture has placed him front and center on perhaps the biggest stage of his presidency, just two months before elections. It has given him an opportunity to step into a larger leadership role for all of Europe and to put some flesh on his sometimes grandiose visions for a Europe allied with, but more independent of, the United States.
Do we want a Russia that is totally aligned with China or one that is somewhere between China and Europe? Bruno Le Maire, the French economy minister, who is very close to Mr. Macron, said on Friday as Russia and China declared no limits to their friendship and called on NATO to abandon its ideologized Cold War approaches.
For France, the choreographed embrace of Mr. Putin and President Xi Jinping of China on the eve of the Beijing Winter Olympics was a demonstration of the ominous wider ramifications of the Ukraine crisis, as Mr. Macron embarks on several days of intense diplomacy.
The risks are as great as the potential payoffs for Mr. Macron. Solutions to the crisis seem fiendishly elusive for now, even if Mr. Putin has appeared less directly threatening toward Ukraine over the past week.
The French president has a double purpose: to stop the war that a massive Russian troop concentration at the Ukrainian border threatens; and to allay the festering Russian grievances that NATOs expansion eastward in 1999 and 2004 provoked, with the eventual aim of integrating Russia in a new European security system that offsets its lurch toward China.
Its a tall order, but Mr. Macron has never lacked for audacity. He will need to tread carefully. Theres frustration in European countries, including Germany, with Mr. Macrons tendency to forge ahead and then yell at them for not doing anything, said Jeremy Shapiro, a former State Department official who is now the research director of the European Council on Foreign Relations. That weakens him.
French officials described in broad outline the twin approaches Mr. Macron would adopt in his meetings with Mr. Putin and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine.
The first is to use the Normandy Format a grouping of France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia to bolster the 2015 Minsk 2 agreement, a deeply ambiguous document that secured a cease-fire in eastern Ukraine but that has proved largely inoperable, not least because nobody agrees on its meaning.
Could some interpretation of the accord, involving the eventual powers of the breakaway Donbas region over national policy, go some way toward satisfying Mr. Putins insistence that Ukraine never join NATO, a demand the United States and its allies, including France, are adamant in rejecting?
The second, in close consultation with Mr. Biden, is to secure a concrete signal of de-escalation that reverses the Russian military buildup and, as a means to achieving that, explores what Mr. Putins ultimate red line is in the confrontation.
The senior official at the French presidency said the nucleus of the Western conflict with Mr. Putin lay in the extension of NATO and the inclusion in it of countries from the former Soviet space, which created an area of volatility that has to be reduced. He added that Mr. Putin had told Mr. Macron that he wanted a conversation of substance that goes to the heart of the matter.
In effect, France appears to be saying that Mr. Putins demands, which include pushing NATO back out of formerly Soviet-controlled countries, cannot ever be satisfied but that getting to the heart of the matter involves acknowledgment that NATO expansion created permanent grievances with Russia even as it secured freedom for 100 million central Europeans.
No one believes that Romania, Lithuania and other states that joined an expanded NATO are ever going to leave it, or that NATO is ever going to abrogate its 2008 Bucharest statement that Ukraine will become a member of the alliance. But, as Turkeys almost 60-year flirtation with the European Union illustrates, there are ways of turning a candidacy for membership of an organization into an indefinite holding pattern.
We can take a step toward Putin, recognize he is not completely wrong, said Justin Vasse, the former head of policy planning at the French foreign ministry who now heads the Paris Peace Forum.
The senior official at the French presidency said, Ukraine is not a member of NATO and, to my knowledge, will not be for a while.
Mr. Macron wants to explore whether American offers last month could be complemented by further confidence-building measures that permit a way out of the crisis.
The American proposal involved more transparency about missile deployment in Eastern Europe and a call for reciprocal commitments by both the United States and Russia to refrain from deploying missiles or troops in Ukraine. Mr. Putin has rejected the American response to his demands as inadequate.
Conceivably the arms control offers of the other day could be combined with some sort of consultative mechanism for changes in NATO status, or some sort of moratorium on NATO expansion, or some creative interpretation of the Minsk agreement that gives a Donbas constituent assembly veto powers over what the government will do, Mr. Shapiro, the former State Department official, suggested.
None of this appears likely, however, given Mr. Putins unprovoked direct threat to Ukraine, his annexation of Crimea, his invasion of Georgia in the short war of 2008 and his history of tearing up treaties when it suits him. The Biden administration, with muscular proactive diplomacy, has signaled it is in no mood for compromise.
Ominous warnings. Russia called the strike a destabilizing act that violated the cease-fire agreement, raising fears of a new intervention in Ukraine that could draw the United States and Europe into a new phase of the conflict.
The Kremlins position. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, who has increasingly portrayed NATOs eastward expansion as an existential threat to his country, said that Moscows military buildupwas a response to Ukraines deepening partnership with the alliance.
Mr. Putin, it often seems, is only the latest exponent of what Joseph Conrad called Russian officialdoms almost sublime disdain for the truth.
Despite this, Mr. Macron, who knows that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would send gas costs spiraling higher at a time when the French electorate is angry about lost purchasing power, sees some potential in the Normandy Format. A first meeting last month ended with limited progress, a second meeting is scheduled soon, and a summit of French, German, Russian and Ukrainian leaders has been suggested.
The Minsk 2 agreement calls for a decentralization of Ukraine that confers special status on areas of the east now controlled by separatists, with the specificities to be agreed on with representatives of these areas.
Russia, in a creative interpretation of these specificities, has argued that they should include granting the elected representatives in these areas a veto on Ukrainian foreign policy decisions, including membership in NATO. In this way, Ukraine would effectively become part of Russias sphere of influence.
This is not going to happen, Dmytro Kuleba, the Ukrainian foreign minister, said last week. Never.
Mr. Zelensky, the president, has sounded more ambivalent. If it is not NATO, then point to some other security guarantees, he said last month. It was unclear what he had in mind.
The security guarantees offered by the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, in which Russia vowed to respect Ukraines existing borders and sovereignty, proved worthless.
Absent other avenues, the Normandy Format at least brings the parties together. Mr. Shapiro argued that it could help forge stability.
Instability is the Russian strength. Stability is our strength, he said. NATO and the European Union expansion were a very powerful way to secure democracy in Eastern European countries. But we got out of it what we could. If you believe in the superiority of the Western economic and political model, as I do, stability makes that evident, and spheres of influence are a pretty good way to establish that.
Mr. Putin, the French official said, wants long-term visibility on Ukraine and Europe. That appears to leave Mr. Macron playing a potentially dangerous game, trying to balance the new European security order he has said he seeks with his commitment to the United States and the NATO alliance.
Andrew E. Kramer contributed reporting from Kyiv, Ukraine.
View original post here:
Macron Tries to Avert a European War and Reshape European Security - The New York Times
- NATO Protesters Receive 5- To 8-Year Prison Terms [Last Updated On: April 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 26th, 2014]
- NATO 3 get prison terms ranging from 5 to 8 years [Last Updated On: April 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 26th, 2014]
- Nato News [Last Updated On: April 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 26th, 2014]
- NATO - New World Encyclopedia [Last Updated On: April 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 26th, 2014]
- NATO - State [Last Updated On: April 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 26th, 2014]
- NATO: Definition from Answers.com - Answers - The Most ... [Last Updated On: April 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 26th, 2014]
- NATO - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia [Last Updated On: April 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 26th, 2014]
- European observers detained in Ukraine are branded 'Nato spies' - Video [Last Updated On: April 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 26th, 2014]
- Furious Russia Proposes Retaliation Against NATO Countries! - Video [Last Updated On: April 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 26th, 2014]
- Latvia: US troops arrive in Baltics for NATO drill - Video [Last Updated On: April 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 26th, 2014]
- No NATO. May 2012. Archive. Chicago, Il - Video [Last Updated On: April 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 26th, 2014]
- Erkkio Tuomioja: "Nato suojaa Suomea meteoriiteilta". - Video [Last Updated On: April 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 26th, 2014]
- US troops arrive in Latvia for NATO exercises: Baltic states concerned by Russian military threat - Video [Last Updated On: April 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 26th, 2014]
- Voglio andare a vivere a Laveno dove e' nato Pozzetto - Video [Last Updated On: April 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 26th, 2014]
- OcaqTv - Rusiya NATO srhdini pozdu -- F-16-lar havaya qalxd - Video [Last Updated On: April 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 26th, 2014]
- Men of War Assault Squad Cold War Mod - NATO vs Warsaw Pact - Video [Last Updated On: April 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 26th, 2014]
- US troops in Poland: American soldiers arrive for NATO exercises in response to Russia threat - Video [Last Updated On: April 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 26th, 2014]
- Ancona 23-04-14 PdCI - La crisi dell'Ucraina, la NATO e l'UE: pericoli di guerra e lotta x la Pace - Video [Last Updated On: April 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 26th, 2014]
- Eastermonday Peace ralley NATO Bchel germany 21.04.2014 - Video [Last Updated On: April 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 26th, 2014]
- How to change Gear 2 Strap NATO no tool needed - Video [Last Updated On: April 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 26th, 2014]
- CNN: NATO Scrambles Fighter Jets To Investigate Russian Bombers! - Video [Last Updated On: April 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 26th, 2014]
- NATO to deploy recon flights over Poland [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2014]
- Marine Le Pen: Vyvediem Franczsko z NATO - francztina, rutina - Video [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2014]
- Warum NATO/USA Russland einkreisen und erobern wollen - Video [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2014]
- 5 NATO troops killed in Kandahar Afghanistan UK's helicopter crash - Video [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2014]
- NATO troops killed in Afghanistan helicopter crash - Video [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2014]
- Prostittas priecjas par NATO karavriem Latvij - Video [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2014]
- Slovakia: NATO exercises in Central Europe - Video [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2014]
- NATO - Video [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2014]
- MV Bill - A Luz #PersianaBaixaMix (prod. DJ Nato pk) Part. @KmillaCdd - Video [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2014]
- "NATO 3" individuals sentenced - Video [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2014]
- Conversation: NATO's Evolving Mission - Video [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2014]
- NATO planes chase out Russian bombers - Video [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2014]
- NATO military response 'almost unthinkable' [Last Updated On: April 28th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 28th, 2014]
- NATO supply trucks stuck in Pakistan - Video [Last Updated On: April 28th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 28th, 2014]
- NATO News and Video - FOX News Topics - FOXNews.com [Last Updated On: April 28th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 28th, 2014]
- Poland: French Rafale fighter jets join NATO force - Video [Last Updated On: April 28th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 28th, 2014]
- RAF Deploys Typhoon Jets To Bolster Nato Air Policing Mission - Video [Last Updated On: April 28th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 28th, 2014]
- DatSyn News - USA And NATO Moving Closer To War With Russia - Video [Last Updated On: April 28th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 28th, 2014]
- Germany: Pro-Russians rally against NATO in Frankfurt - Video [Last Updated On: April 28th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 28th, 2014]
- Rasmussen: No need for NATO in Syria - Video [Last Updated On: April 28th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 28th, 2014]
- BREAKING: UK Helicopter Crashes, 5 NATO Troops Dead in Afghanistan - Video [Last Updated On: April 28th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 28th, 2014]
- NATO Jets Intercept Russian Nuclear Bombers in North Sea Region... - Video [Last Updated On: April 28th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 28th, 2014]
- NATO exercise scenario: Naval response to invasion of allied country [Last Updated On: April 30th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 30th, 2014]
- April 28 2014 Breaking News NATO minesweepers set off on Baltic deployment - Video [Last Updated On: April 30th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 30th, 2014]
- WW3 - Its Official, SYRIAN TERRORISTS trained by ISRAEL & NATO to cause VIOLENCE and TERRO - Video [Last Updated On: April 30th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 30th, 2014]
- NATO forces serve world bankers: Analyst - Video [Last Updated On: April 30th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 30th, 2014]
- NATO Fest 2014 - Video [Last Updated On: April 30th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 30th, 2014]
- 2 NATO troops killed in attack in eastern Afghanistan - Video [Last Updated On: April 30th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 30th, 2014]
- NATO Holds Largest Post Cold War Drill Near Russia's Borders - Video [Last Updated On: April 30th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 30th, 2014]
- 65 years of NATO delivering democracy.in a full metal jacket - Video [Last Updated On: April 30th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 30th, 2014]
- AZD FEAT NATO - FREESTYLE BPC - Video [Last Updated On: April 30th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 30th, 2014]
- RAF Typhoons Arrive in Lithuania to Reinforce NATO Air Policing Mission - Video [Last Updated On: April 30th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 30th, 2014]
- RAF Jets Respond To Ukraine Crisis 28.04.14 - Video [Last Updated On: April 30th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 30th, 2014]
- NATO expansion to Ukraine will be grievous mistake for US - last US ambassador to USSR - Video [Last Updated On: April 30th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 30th, 2014]
- Sunday 4/27/2014 - Tarpley Points Out Fake-OSCE Observers Are Actually NATO Military Officers - Video [Last Updated On: April 30th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 30th, 2014]
- Helicopter crash kills 5 NATO troops in south Afghanistan - Video [Last Updated On: April 30th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 30th, 2014]
- Are doctors lying to you? Russia and NATO, Google Doodles - DKNews with 8byte - Video [Last Updated On: April 30th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 30th, 2014]
- i am NATO - Video [Last Updated On: April 30th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 30th, 2014]
- AP Interview: Tymoshenko calls for NATO membership - Video [Last Updated On: April 30th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 30th, 2014]
- STEFANO BORGONOVO:ATTACCANTE NATO IL DOCUMENTARIO - Video [Last Updated On: April 30th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 30th, 2014]
- RAF Deploys Typhoon Jets To Bolster NATO Air Policing Mission [Last Updated On: May 1st, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 1st, 2014]
- NATO opens second Baltic air base in Estonia with 4 Danish fighter jets amid Ukraine crisis [Last Updated On: May 1st, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 1st, 2014]
- NATO triples fighter jets in Baltic countries - Video [Last Updated On: May 1st, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 1st, 2014]
- Lithuania: US hands over NATO air patrol to UK - Video [Last Updated On: May 1st, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 1st, 2014]
- Ukraine: Kerry announces more support from NATO towards coup - Video [Last Updated On: May 1st, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 1st, 2014]
- NATO Power Turkish Military Industry Made in Turkey in 5 Years - Video [Last Updated On: May 1st, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 1st, 2014]
- Scoring Political Points? NATO bolsters forces in Eastern Europe - Video [Last Updated On: May 1st, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 1st, 2014]
- Arctic Trucks Hilux Matte NATO - Best Tuning - Video [Last Updated On: May 1st, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 1st, 2014]
- Putin: NATO Chief Rasmussen secretly taped, leaked meeting when he was Danish PM - Video [Last Updated On: May 1st, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 1st, 2014]
- Russia Accuses NATO of 'Provocative' Actions - Video [Last Updated On: May 1st, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 1st, 2014]
- Video: US deploys troops to Estonia - Video [Last Updated On: May 1st, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 1st, 2014]
- NATO & its future NAZI headquarters - Video [Last Updated On: May 1st, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 1st, 2014]
- OSCE team in Ukraine NATO spies: Analyst - Video [Last Updated On: May 1st, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 1st, 2014]
- NATO's soft war on Russia [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2014]
- NATO allies take over Baltic mission from Air Force [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2014]
- NATO official says Russia must now be viewed as more of an enemy than a partner [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2014]
- NATO official says Russia now an adversary [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2014]
- NATO official: Russian moves in Ukraine pose 'grave challenge' to global security system [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2014]
- North Atlantic Treaty Organization - The New York Times [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2014]