French election: Your guide to a vote that is set to shake the EU and NATO – POLITICO Europe

In order to get through the first round, parties that share a political hue such as the countrys four main left-wing parties tend to club together and agree to not run candidates against each other.

Sounds easy, right? But heres the rub: Turnout really matters. In 2022, when turnout was close to 50 percent, parties had to get approximately a quarter of the votes cast to reach that magic figure of 12.5 percent of registered voters. Voter turnout is expected to be higher in this heavily scrutinized election, which will make it easier for candidates to advance to the second vote. That means well probably see more three-way contests than usual in the July 7 round.

A big caveat about opinion polls ahead of the first round: Its a two-round vote, so the percentage of overall votes doesnt translate directly into seats. For now, the National Rally and some if its allies from the fracturing center-right have about 37 percent support, while the left wing New Popular Front grouping is at 28 percent and Macrons liberals have about 18 percent.

The question on everybodys mind is whether the anti-immigration National Rally will be ruling the country as of next month.

Marine Le Pens party needs at least 289 seats to command a majority in the French parliament, and at the moment the far right looks likely to make big gains on the back of a successful campaign in the European election. Again, opinion polls must be taken with a pinch of salt, but the National Rally could get between 195 and 245 seats, according to current projections. That would be a record increase from the 89 MPs they currently have.

If the far right gets a majority in the parliament, the French president would have to enter into a cohabitation arrangement with the National Rally and appoint a far-right prime minister. Bardella, the president of the National Rally, has said he would not seek to lead a government unless he had a majority. That presumably means he will need coalition partners or its an electoral strategy to bag a big turnout.

Originally posted here:
French election: Your guide to a vote that is set to shake the EU and NATO - POLITICO Europe