The United Kingdom’s future nuclear deterrent: the 2021 update to Parliament – GOV.UK

Introduction

The United Kingdoms (UK) independent nuclear deterrent protects against the most extreme threats to our national security and way of life, both now and in the future, providing the ultimate guarantee to our national security. It is relevant not only for today but will remain an important part of our national security strategy for as long as the global security situation makes it necessary. This approach forms the cornerstone of this and previous Governments responsibility to maintain the safety and security of its citizens.

In 2007 the then Government, endorsed by a Parliamentary vote, started the programme to maintain the UKs nuclear deterrent beyond the early 2030s. The 2015 Strategic Defence and Security Review confirmed that commitment to an independent minimum credible deterrent. This intent was endorsed in 2016 when Parliament voted overwhelmingly to renew our nuclear deterrent and maintain the Continuous At Sea Deterrence posture, to ensure the UK has a credible, independent, and capable nuclear deterrent out to at least the 2060s. Achieving this will include replacing the existing Vanguard Class submarines with four new Dreadnought Class submarines and replacing the UKs current nuclear warhead. The Government published its Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy on 16 March 2021. While it was made clear from the outset of the Review that the nuclear deterrent would be maintained, the UKs nuclear deterrence policy was reviewed to ensure it remains fully aligned to todays security environment and continues to support the UKs overall security strategy.

Designed and constructed in the UK, the new submarines and the replacement warheads will include some of the most advanced systems ever built, employing world-leading and cutting-edge technology to deliver an effective and intensely formidable capability, directly supporting tens of thousands of jobs across the country.

This tenth annual update sets out the progress over the last twelve months of the programme delivering the UKs Future Nuclear Deterrent.

As reported last year the Covid-19 pandemic has had an impact on the delivery of the future nuclear deterrent programme. The Defence Nuclear Organisation (DNO) continues to work with the Dreadnought Alliance, a joint management team between the Submarine Delivery Agency (SDA), BAE Systems and Rolls-Royce, as well as the Atomic Weapons Establishment (AWE), to maintain progress on our priority programmes and to assess and manage the impact of the pandemic. Onsite activity at industrial facilities and offices is close to pre-Covid output. This recovery has been achieved through revised long-term alternative working practices being implemented and, although this work is ongoing, the actions taken have mitigated the risks that built up during the period.

While our key outputs have not changed, our adapted working approach, in line with government guidelines, continues to provide a safe and secure environment for our people and industrial colleagues. Whether working at home or on site to progress critical programme activities, ensuring our people are protected and supported remains as important as ever. We have also been working alongside our suppliers to ensure they are supported in managing Covid-19 both within their own operations but also their wider supply chains. They have responded by establishing controls and protocols to maintain output and minimise risk to our programmes and our strengthened approach to key supplier and supply chain management has enabled us jointly and quickly identify and address challenges to the programme.

Despite the effects of Covid-19 and challenges in some parts of the supply chain, the Dreadnought ballistic missile submarine programme continues to remain within overall budget and on track for the First of Class, HMS DREADNOUGHT, to enter service in the early 2030s. Recognising the high-levels of uncertainty caused by the pandemic, and particularly the short term uncertainty in our Industrial Partners and the wider Supply Chains, the commercial framework employed during Delivery Phase 2 was rolled forward for a further 12 months to March 2022.

Key staged investments made during financial year 2020-21 have allowed good progress to continue with the whole boat design and the construction process. These commitments have enabled the construction of the first two boats of the Class (DREADNOUGHT and VALIANT) to progress, with further investment in the shipyard facilities, and to procure materials and equipment for the Class. Rolls-Royce Submarines continue to make good progress with the manufacture of the nuclear propulsion power plants, the Pressurised Water Reactor 3, for all four Dreadnought submarines. The procurement on long lead items and other early work for the remaining submarines in the Class, WARSPITE and KING GEORGE VI, continues in line with the overall programme schedule.

As previously reported, production and delivery of the Missile Tubes (MT) to form part of the Common Missile Compartment have been subject to quality shortfalls across the supply chain resulting in their delayed delivery. All 12 missile tubes for HMS DREADNOUGHT have now been delivered to the BAE Systems Barrow shipyard, a significant milestone in the delivery of the programme. We continue to support our United States (US) colleagues in working with their US and UK suppliers to ensure future missile tube deliveries continue in a timely manner to support the Dreadnought programme.

The 2015 Strategic Defence and Security Review estimated that the programme is likely to cost a total of 31 billion (including inflation, over the 35 years of the programme) and set a contingency of 10 billion. The programme remains within its overall budget and, as of 31 March 2021, 10.4 billion had been spent in total on concept, assessment, and delivery phases, of which 1.9 billion was spent in financial year 2020-21.

As previously reported, on 25 February 2020, Parliament was notified of the Governments intention to replace the UKs sovereign nuclear warhead. While the overall programme to deliver the replacement warhead is in its preliminary phases, it continues to be subject to across Government scrutiny, oversight, and approvals processes.

The requirements, design, and manufacture of the warhead are sovereign to the UK, meeting our obligations under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. The UK warhead will be integrated with the US supplied Mark 7 aeroshell to ensure it remains compatible with the Trident II D5 missile and delivered in parallel with the US W93/Mk7 warhead programme.

AWE will continue to build the highly skilled teams, facilities and capabilities needed to deliver the UKs replacement warhead programmes, while also sustaining the current in-service warhead until it is withdrawn from service. The transition of the current mark 4 warhead to the mark 4A is ongoing, addressing obsolescence to ensure we continue to have a safe, secure, and available stockpile until the UK replacement warhead is available in the 2030s.

The UK also continues to participate with US partners on work to extend the life of the Trident II D5 missiles. These life extension programmes will address obsolescence and continue to provide sufficient missile packages, including spares, to support the UKs current stock entitlement.

We continue to make good progress dismantling our decommissioned submarines, reducing the Ministry of Defences (MOD) nuclear liabilities, and associated non-discretionary costs. In March 2020, dismantling work started on a third boat, REVENGE, and the removal of its component low level radioactive waste is scheduled to complete by March 2022. This work is being conducted in parallel with the development of the necessary facilities, processes and technical solutions that are required to support the steady state disposal of all our laid-up submarines. Despite an interruption to the work on REVENGE, which was caused by the impact of Covid, it remains on track to deliver a safe, secure, cost-effective, and environmentally responsible solution for dismantling all our non-operational submarines, with the first disposal, SWIFTSURE, planned for 2026.

The MOD Nuclear Enterprise Skills Strategy continues to mature. An Enterprise-wide Strategic Workforce Planning and Skills team has been established to develop our understanding of the growing need for the variety of skilled personnel, including Nuclear Suitably Qualified and Experienced Personnel, required in the Defence Nuclear Enterprise (DNE) as the defence nuclear programmes gather pace. Key to that effort is to provide appropriate incentives for the retention of nuclear-skilled staff within the Enterprise as well as to attract additional suitably qualified people into the DNE. Work is also underway to raise the profile of Defences nuclear-skilled cadre with key nuclear-focused further and higher education institutes, aiming to attract a more diverse range of young people into the sector. The Workforce Planning and Skills team is also working with the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy to identify how collaboration between defence and civil nuclear enterprises can enhance the skills base and to maximise investment and deliver wider economic growth within the nuclear sector.

Collaboration with the US remains strong through our cooperation on Strategic Weapon System and reactor technologies under the terms of the 1958 Mutual Defence Agreement and 1963 Polaris Sales Agreement. Warhead related collaboration includes research on warhead safety, security, and advanced manufacturing technologies taking place under the UK-US Joint Technology Demonstrator project.

We continue to cooperate with France under the TEUTATES Treaty, signed in November 2010, working together on the technology associated with the nuclear stockpile stewardship in support of our respective independent nuclear deterrent capabilities, in full compliance with our international obligations. Progress continues to be made with the delivery of the experimental hydrodynamic capability at Epure in France and associated capabilities at AWE which will allow both the UK and France to conduct independent experiments ensuring both nations nuclear weapons remain safe and effective.

Since 1962 the UK has declared our nuclear capability to the defence of NATO. Nuclear deterrence is a critical part of NATOs overall strategy and the UKs deterrent provides an important contribution to Euro-Atlantic security. This year we have continued to coordinate closely with NATO Allies to maintain an effective and balanced defence and deterrence posture. More widely, we are working with international partners to reduce the threat from nuclear terrorism and on research to support arms control and verification.

The Department continues to deliver on its commitment to strengthen the management of all nuclear programmes under the leadership of Vanessa Nicholls, the Director General Nuclear of the DNO. The organisation sponsors the Defence Nuclear Enterprise which includes responsibility for the management of the defence nuclear portfolio, including providing the Senior Responsible Owners for the main nuclear equipment programmes, and for the delivery of the UK warhead.

On 31 August 2021, after more than four years in post, Rob Holden stepped down as Chair of the SDA. Under his stewardship, the SDA developed from a proposal in the 2015 Strategic Defence and Security Review to a fully established delivery Agency that makes a critical contribution to the provision of the nuclear deterrent. Rob established a strong, knowledgeable, and well-respected Board during his time in role and provided important leadership and guidance to the work of the SDA. Jonathan Simcock became the Interim Board Chair from 1 September 2021 while the process to recruit a new permanent SDA Board Chair takes place. Jonathan is an experienced member of the SDAs Board, having served as a Non-Executive Director since 2018 when the Agency was established, and has a detailed knowledge and understanding of the SDAs work. He has also been a member of the Board of Sellafield Ltd since 2019, which offers valuable synergy between the defence and civil nuclear enterprises. A permanent Board Chair will be appointed in the coming months.

As previously reported, on 1 July 2021 AWE plc, the company running the AWE facility, became an Arms-Length Body, wholly owned by the MOD. The new model will enhance the Departments agility to manage the UKs nuclear deterrent and improve the delivery of core defence objectives, including the replacement warhead. The change will also enable the MOD to invest in the development of the workforce, infrastructure and capabilities needed for the replacement warhead programme. The MOD has appointed a new Board of Directors for the AWE plc Non-Departmental Public Body, including Alison Atkinson, AWE Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director and six Non-Executive Directors, it is Chaired by Sir John Manzoni.

The MOD continues to make progress on the recommendations made by the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) in their Defence Nuclear Infrastructure report of 13 May 2020. The MOD accepted the reports findings and continues to take steps to ensure lessons are learned and implemented to mitigate against similar experiences in the future.

Mensa continues to make progress following Office for Nuclear Regulation approval of AWEs Pre-Commissioning Safety Review submission in December 2020. Continuation of internal fit-out and commencement of commissioning has become peak activity within the Main Processing Facility (MPF) during 2021 and this will continue throughout 2022. The Mensa support building, which houses the control room that integrates the instrumentation and manages control of the system of systems for the environment and operations within the MPF is now complete. Work on the lighting protection system (an array of catenary towers external to the MPF), and the fitting of specialist blast doors within the MPF has also be completed. There has also been an increase of front-line workers, working within Covid-19 restrictions, in the MPF to install and connect processing plant and equipment, mechanical and electrical equipment, ductwork, ventilation as well as gatehouse operational equipment and services. The focus is now moving towards the completion of building works, internal fit out and building systems integration in order to commission and achieve Initial Operating Capability by the end of 2023.

The regeneration of Core Production Capability (CPC) facility is being delivered in two phases. The first will provide the means to manufacture new reactor cores and is projected to complete in 2022. The second phase will facilitate the production of nuclear fuel. With the first phase delivery nearly complete, commercial negotiations have focussed on making the remainder of the CPC contract Single Source Contract Regulation compliant as soon as practicable. Incorporating lessons from the first phase of regeneration, Phase 2 design continues and will be at a high level of maturity before construction. Phase 2 will be conducted in line with industry best practice and approval for funding of construction will be sought from HM Treasury when a mature design is available.

The Primary Build Facility at BAE Systems Barrow shipyard which comprises of two main facilities (buildings D58 and D59), is a linked group of buildings within which the fabrication of the submarine reactor pipework and the assembly of the reactor is carried out, together with supporting office and welfare facilities. Building D59 is now complete and became an operational facility in July 2021. Building D58 is progressing in line with a revised planned schedule and activity is on-going to alleviate the increased costs outlined in the National Audit Office report published on the 10 January 2020 covering defence nuclear infrastructure.

The Department plans to next report progress to Parliament in late 2022.

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The United Kingdom's future nuclear deterrent: the 2021 update to Parliament - GOV.UK