Third-party candidates are on the rise in Montana. But, will it matter? – Billings Gazette

To hear Gary Buchanan tell it, theres an eight-lane highway down the middle of Montana politics. It is the space left behind by the major political parties steering to the opposing guardrails of the political spectrum.

Buchanan, a career financial adviser and long-time public servant, is one of several candidates hoping to occupy the center lanes in Montanas newly created Eastern U.S. House District. You could say hes hitching a ride. The candidate is scrambling to gather voter signatures ahead of a May 31 deadline for non-party candidates qualifying for the November ballot.

Theres a question about whether this opening lane in the political asphalt really exists, or is merely a heat mirage. Voters like Bob Brown believe it's real because theyre occupying it. Libertarians also think its real, said Sid Daoud, the Montana Libertarian Party chairman.

This political space might best be defined by what it isnt, Brown said, which is his truth. Eighteen years ago, Brown was the Montana Republican Partys candidate for governor. Voters preferring Republican candidates had also twice elected Brown Montanas secretary of state, and before that elected him to the Legislature for 22 years.

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Bob Brown greets former President George H.W. Bush in 2000 in Great Falls where Bush was campaigning for his son, George W. Bush.

That started to change in 2016 with the election of President Donald Trump. Brown isnt a Trump guy. As most Republicans went all-in for the bombastic celebrity, Brown didnt follow along. The Montanan's notion of the art of a deal had always involved getting buy-in from both sides of the political aisle. That wasn't Trump's way.

I saw a poll that showed something like 80% of self-identified Republicans, maybe that figure is down closer to 70% now, were loyal to Donald Trump, Brown said. And I thought to myself, well, thats definitely not what I am. If thats what all the Republicans have become, or are, Im not a part of that. I dont know what I am, but I know thats what Im not.'

Full disclosure: Brown is a Buchanan supporter. He joined former Montana governor Marc Racicot in putting his name to Buchanan's campaign. Racicot, like Brown, had emerged from years of silence to warn the current Republican establishment that many voters are becoming disenfranchised.

As Racicot put in an open letter to RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel earlier this year, Many intensely loyal Republicans, more polite and less dangerous than those who breached the Capitol, are in larger and larger numbers, quietly but persistently looking for alternatives in the form of political movements and candidates of conscience, character, conviction and courage. Theyre not suggesting, hopelessly, a return to simpler times. Theyre calling, hopefully, for a return to simple, timeless and enduring values: presuming the best of each other, listening in good faith before acting or responding, exuding generosity and grace, self-correcting our own mistakes and being ambitious to accomplish something, not to be somebody.

The former governor backed those statements with his own credentials as a former RNC chairman and George W. Bush team leader in the recount of Florida ballots that decided the 2000 presidential election. He was Bushs campaign chairman in 2004.

The Montana Republican Party responded to all this third-partyism with a two-party response. It circulated an email pointing out all the Democrats who Buchanan has donated to over the years, plus a few he hadnt. In truth, the candidate had donated, like a businessman, to candidates of both parties. Buchanan had also hosted Greg Gianfortes campaign kickoff for governor in 2016.

A spokesperson for incumbent Rep. Matt Rosendale told the Montana Free Press that Buchanan was a Democrat. Full stop.

Third-party contenders

There are three other candidates trying to appeal to voters not locked into a major party. Theyre all Libertarian: Roger Roots, Sam Rankin and Samuel Thomas. Daoud said theres never been a better time for Libertarians to run. The politics of the pandemic, mask requirements, and for some an expectation to get vaccinated for private work or as government employee, are straight out the Libertarian playbook.

We know the reality of it is, were like a super-duper long shot, and even the Democrats are a super-duper shot if you look at the way the races have gone, Daoud said.

Daoud pauses for a minute, and then explains that Libertarians needed to communicate more to own the message about public health mandates versus personal liberties. Then he adds, The Libertarian Party at this point is a more well-greased machine than the Democrats at this point. Weve been long shots, weve been called pointless in the past, but the reality is that every cycle were increasing our percentage of the vote. Membership is up 50% in the past two years.

Sid Daoud is the Montana Libertarian Party chairman.

A few of Daouds statements are worthy of asterisks. Libertarians are strongest in Western Montana, to which Daoud concurs. Counties in the newly formed Eastern U.S. House District, have only given Libertarian candidates more than 5% of the vote in congressional races twice since 2010. The best performance was a 6% showing in the 2017 special election for U.S. House. Thats more a highway stripe than a viable center lane.

It is true that the Democratic machine in Eastern Montana could use some grease. In 21 of Montanas 56 counties, there is no local Democratic county chairperson, no committee structure, according to the Montana Democratic Party roster of county committees. All 21 of those counties are in the Eastern U.S. House District, although there are tribal committees at the Fort Peck and Fork Belknap reservations.

Election data from 2010 to present shows that in four of the last seven U.S. House races, the margin of victory for GOP candidates over Democrats in the counties that now comprise the Eastern district has been greater than 20%. Only once was the margin closer than 15%.

Montanas current at-large representative, Matt Rosendale, has all the characteristics of a dominant incumbent on the Eastern districts 2022 House ballot. He won 61% of the vote in the east as a statewide candidate running against Democrat Kathleen Williams in 2020. The only Republican to do better since 2010 was Denny Rehberg, who was an eight-year incumbent in 2010 when he won 62% of the vote in the Eastern district counties. Rehberg managed to set the bar high in an election year without a presidential race, or top ticket Senate race, to drive up voter interest.

Rosendales campaign also has $1 million cash on hand. The rest of the field has reported less than $75,000 combined.

Whats surprising is that despite those advantages for an incumbent, there are still 11 people running for office, said Jeremy Johnson, political scientist at Carroll College. The advantages for Rosendale havent discouraged the competition, including other Republicans. Theres a four-candidate Republican primary. Challengers Kyle Austin, James Boyette, and Charles Walkingchild faced off in a Miles City debate April 21. Rosendale didnt attend.

There is also a three-candidate Democratic primary. Penny Ronning, Mark Sweeney and Skylar Williams debated in Havre on April 28.

The three-candidate Libertarian primary is new ground for the party, Daoud said. It wasnt until 2020 that Montana allowed Libertarians to have a primary. One occurred earlier in a Missoula race for state Legislature.

Neither the Libertarians nor Buchanan have had a chance to share a stage with other candidates this spring. There is an all-comers forum scheduled for May 8 in Billings at Art House Cinema and Pub. The event is organized by Forward Montana.

It remains to be seen how Libertarian or independent candidates shape the outcome of the race, especially in a district where Republican candidates have voting margin to burn without losing.

There are more Republican-leaning voters in the Eastern district, as we know. So, how important is this or who is affected? Johnson said. Obviously, just for the demographics of the Eastern District, the expectation is all other things being equal the Republican has a big advantage. So, theres a lot of hill to climb.

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Third-party candidates are on the rise in Montana. But, will it matter? - Billings Gazette