Why the election could make Theresa May more liberal – The Guardian

Theresa May: For someone who says, Politics is not a game, shes awfully good at it. Photograph: Daniel Leal-Olivas/AFP/Getty Images

This prime minister likes to surprise. Thought she was cautious? Cue this snap election. Thought she would just be Cameron continuity? Oh no: austerity slowed, the ban on grammar schools lifted. A reassuring remainer to handle Brexit? Nope. Shes become a full-throttle Brexiteer.

She has ascended in politics by pursuing a clever strategy: lying low, surfacing only at moments of significance, and not allowing herself to be easily defined. Endorsed, but not embraced, by nearly everyone in the Conservative party and now the wider public by not being too close or associated with anyone or anything. For someone who says, Politics is not a game, shes awfully good at it.

Indeed, come the summer, her majority in parliament is likely to increase significantly. What does this mean for her programme for Brexit and government? The speculation has started. But the truth is we dont really know.

Some say it will allow her to pursue a softer Brexit with more compromises, freed from a troublesome right wing on the backbenches, currently calling the shots thanks to a slim majority. But others argue that it will enable her to secure her plan for a hard Brexit, a cadre of Theresa Mays minions in the Commons obliging and a fresh mandate proving to the EU that there really is no turning back for the UK.

The Tory manifesto is likely to reveal little. Thats because the PM has framed this election narrowly, about giving her the endorsement to negotiate with the EU, the details of which she is reluctant to give in advance and provide a running commentary on. If we take her at face value that she only came to this election decision belatedly then there has been little time to think deeply about an original and radical programme of domestic reform.

Certainly, nearly a year into her government, the creativity and ambition of the policies proposed have not matched the welcome, rousing rhetoric of a new settlement for the state and those on modest incomes. And with the opposition so weak, there is little political incentive to be truly bold in the manifesto.

What is clearer is that, should Mays Tories win on 8 June, she would then be much more likely to get her own way which she would like, not being the most tolerant of disagreement, especially within her own ranks. Justifying the election, she lamented the division in Westminster, which others might regard as a necessary and healthy part of democracy. It was a little overblown too, considering a clear majority of parliamentarians voted to trigger article 50 only a month ago.

But it will not be such smooth sailing for her. After June, the bulk of Tory MPs will still be creatures of the Cameron era. Considering the abruptness of this election, many of the candidates especially those fighting safe seats will have been around when her predecessor was still in charge. There will be loyalty, but they will not be pushovers: conservatism is not known to attract those with a collectivist mindset.

Happily, it is likely that many candidates will be liberal conservatives too. Not just because of the Cameron connection or indeed their younger age. But also because of the electoral reality. Those extra parliamentary seats have to come from constituencies that are currently held by Labour, with a higher proportion of voters on more modest incomes and from black, Asian and minority ethnic backgrounds.

The threat to sitting Tory MPs comes from a revived and shamelessly pro-remain Liberal Democrats in southern England. Ukip, meanwhile, increasingly seems a divided, amateurish and redundant force. To win big, the Conservatives need to reassure the floating voters of liberal Britain.

In June, Mays power will probably be strengthened. Discreet and surprising, the prime ministers final destination on Brexit and domestic reform is uncertain. But it is likely that the composition of the future Conservative party in the Commons will push her to a and expose her own more liberal conservative positioning.

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Why the election could make Theresa May more liberal - The Guardian