JIM VIBERT: Theres no clear front-runner in Liberal race – The Guardian

Jim Vibert

The Chronicle Herald

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@JimVibert

The race to replace Premier Stephen McNeil is moving into its final frenetic lap without a clear front-runner.

In less than a month on Feb. 6 Iain Rankin, Labi Kousoulis or Randy Delorey will win the leadership of Nova Scotias Liberal Party and, very soon thereafter, become the premier of the province.

Who among them will be the partys chosen one is anybodys guess. The race has tightened to the point where none of the Liberals I talked to this week would hazard such a guess. (The campaign insiders and other Liberals interviewed for this column agreed to speak on background, which means, while I can disclose what was said, I cant identify the source.)

As with so many things during the pandemic, this leadership race is unlike any before in Nova Scotia, at least in living memory. There are no rallies, no coffee klatches or tea parties crowded with local party faithful trying to size up those who would be their leader.

Just one of four all-candidate encounters had the contenders in the same room. The other three were disappointing, technology-dependent events erroneously billed as debates that produced very little political heat and not much more light.

And so, after four months of COVID-limited campaigning described as always difficult and sometimes painful by one campaign insider we are nearer to knowing who will be the next premier, but only as measured by the calendar.

Key players on each of the three campaign teams believe their man has secured more than a third of the vote or, more accurately, of the points but none expects to win on the first ballot, which would require a candidate to take 50 per cent plus one of the available 5,500 points. (Each of Nova Scotias 55 ridings is worth 100 points, assigned based on vote share.)

When the race began four months ago, many Liberals felt that Delorey was the man to beat. He came out of the starting blocks with the backing of several caucus and cabinet colleagues and a potent campaign team headlined by well-known and better-connected Grits like Kirby McVicar, McNeils former right-hand man and John Gillis, MD and former party president.

Judged by the company he kept, Delorey was almost immediately dubbed the establishment candidate. Im not quite sure who the establishment is, but Delorey is the candidate of continuity; the guy who will mostly stick to the direction set by McNeil.

Iain Rankin, another former McNeil cabinet minister all three candidates served in McNeils cabinet but resigned to offer for the leadership was, in those early days, expected to give Delorey the best run for the top.

Like Delorey, Rankin has considerable support from his caucus and cabinet colleagues. At 37, hes the youngest of the three candidates and from the outset has been advocating the most progressive policies among the three.

Dont go to sleep on Labi, was the advice one prominent, long-time Liberal offered this week, echoing the opinion of a number in the party who believe Kousoulis, initially considered the longest shot in the short field, is outperforming expectations and, in the view of some, his two opponents.

Kousoulis is the son of Greek immigrants who worked in the family restaurant in his youth, then worked his way through university. After stints in banking and with Wilsons, he started his own business, just like Stephen McNeil, he reminds his Liberal listeners.

The three candidates have made a plethora of promises and policies announcements and on most of the major issues theres not much difference between them. But as the vote draws near, predictably, the barbs are becoming a little more frequent.

Kousoulis proposes to twin the highway from Sydney to Yarmouth, a promise Rankin has derided as a low priority with a big price tag. Conversely, Rankins drawn criticism from the other camps for pledging to get Nova Scotia off coal by 2030, because to achieve that goal, they say, power bills will go through the roof. Friday, 56 per cent of Nova Scotias electricity was generated by burning coal.

Wednesday evening, when most folks were still glued to screens watching the horrific Trump-inspired attack on the U.S. Congress, the candidates had their final debate. Like the earlier versions, it was more Q-and-A than give-and-take.

Delorey, who bills himself as the most experienced candidate all three were first elected in 2013, and all three served in cabinet, although Delorey arguably held more senior portfolios in health and finance said, now more than ever, we need a proven leader.

While that may well be true, Liberals have to pick a leader from among these three guys, and exactly how any of them has proven his leadership chops escapes me.

The final words are from a former Liberal MLA and cabinet minister in a long-gone government:

Taking the measure of a candidate is incomplete without face-to-face connection. Tasting skimpy samples of statements, debates and stories are part of a meager buffet. It is strangely comforting to be detached and yet very challenging to decide on who best to lead.

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JIM VIBERT: Theres no clear front-runner in Liberal race - The Guardian