NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Sunday’s round of 32 – Las Vegas Sun

Robert Franklin / AP

Oral Roberts players and coaches celebrate after beating Ohio State in a first-round game in the NCAA mens college basketball tournament, Friday, March 19, 2021, at Mackey Arena in West Lafayette,Ind.

By Case Keefer (contact)

Sunday, March 21, 2021 | 2 a.m.

Handicapping second-round games involving mid-major teams that pull off major first-round upsets is always a tricky equation.

Its even trickier this college basketball season given the diminished non-conference schedule, and therefore, fewer data points of where teams from other conferences fit in with each other.

Is Oral Roberts, which shocked Ohio State as 15-point underdogs, just a lot better than expected in general? Is the same true of North Texas, which dispatched Purdue as 7.5-point underdogs? Or was the betting market just too high on the Buckeyes and Boilermakers Big Ten Conference?

More evidence to use towards finding answers is coming today with the start of the round of 32. As far as Oral Roberts and North Texas, Im believing in one more than the other as they continue their tournament journeys today.

Read below for picks on all of Sundays round of 32 games, separated into three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence.

No. 1 seed Illinois -7 vs. No. 8 Loyola Chicago, over/under: 133.5. Loyola is no longer the cute underdog story trying to dismantle the powers at be. The Ramblers are one of the powers at be. Theyve graded out as one of the most efficient teams in the nation all season and should only be this big of an underdog to one team Gonzaga. Sell high on Illinois because its recent run has inflated this number beyond reason. Play: Loyola Chicago +7.

No. 3 seed Arkansas +1.5 vs. No. 6 seed Texas Tech, over/under: 140.5. Texas Tech has gotten by all year by being a well-coached team that doesnt make a lot of mistakes. Now the Red Raiders have to take on a Razorbacks team thats well-coached, doesnt make a lot of mistakes and has a whole lot of talent. Because they werent fully healthy until late in the year, Arkansas doesnt get the credit for the caliber of players on its roster. The Razorbacks should be the favorite here. Play: Arkansas +1.5.

No. 5 seed Villanova -6.5 vs. No. 13 seed North Texas, over/under: 126.5. North Texas record may not have indicated as much but its more dangerous than Winthrop, and thats not revisionist history based on what happened in the round of 64. Villanova handled Winthrop but not all that convincingly, ultimately pulling away for a 73-63 win and cover as 6.5-point favorites. Against better competition today, the Wildcats shouldnt be favored by the same amount. Play: North Texas +6.5.

No. 1 seed Baylor -6.5 vs. No. 9 seed Wisconsin, over/under: 137.5. Lets hope Wisconsin saved some baskets after shooting North Carolina out of Mackey Arena in an 85-62 stomping on Friday. As long as the Badgers dont go completely cold on offense a real concern with this team they are set up to give the Bears all they can handle. Wisconsins defense, pace and smarts should frustrate Baylor. The opening line of -5.5 seemed closer to the true price. Play: Wisconsin +6.5.

No. 3 seed West Virginia -3.5 vs. No. 11 seed Syracuse, over/under: 148. If this number had stayed on 3 instead of swelling immediately, this would be higher up on the list. The half-point makes it a bit harder, but the Mountaineers remain the only way to look. Syracuse played its best game of the season in swallowing up San Diego State defensively and hitting seemingly every shot in a 78-62 win as 3-point underdogs. Thats not a true reflection of the Orange; this is a team thats gone cold on both sides regularly throughout the season. West Virginia came out sluggish in its 84-67 win over Morehead State as 13-point favorites but got into rhythm in the second half a rhythm that will be too much for the Orange if the Mountaineers can carry it over. Lean: West Virginia -3.5.

No. 7 seed Florida -8 vs. No. 15 seed Oral Roberts, over/under: 148. Ohio State didnt have the defensive pieces to adjust effectively to the Kevin Obanor-led Oral Roberts onslaught on Friday. Florida will on Sunday. The Gators have their issues but theyve been consistently tough to score on throughout the season. Oral Roberts defense leaves much to be desired, hence Ohio State nearly completing its comeback, with the Tre Mann-Colin Castelton duo likely taking advantage. Lean: Florida -8.

No. 2 seed Houston -8.5 vs. No. 10 seed Rutgers over/under: 132. On the one hand, Rutgers will slow this game down and at the least make it tough for Houston to cover a big number. On the other, Houston wants to play at that pace anyway and is better at it than anyone in the nation. Im not interested in betting against the Cougars unless their power rating elevates to a point where selling is the only option. Thats not the case here. Lean: Houston -8.5.

No. 4 seed Oklahoma State -6 vs. No. 12 seed Oregon State, over/under: 142. Even at its best, Oklahoma State hasnt blown out many opponents this year. The Cowboys dont have any wins as dominant as two of the Beavers last three 70-56 over Tennessee as 8.5-point underdogs and 75-64 over Oregon as 8.5-point underdogs. That being said, Oregon State doesnt have anyone who can slow Cade Cunningham if he plays anywhere near his best. You might be better off flipping a coin here. Guess: Oregon State +6.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [emailprotected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Sunday's round of 32 - Las Vegas Sun