New Zealands once all-powerful farmers split amid anger over Ardern climate policy – The Guardian

For decades, many of New Zealands most influential people didnt hold seats in parliament. They didnt pass legislation or regulations. They often didnt even work in the capital, Wellington.

Yet this group the elected leaders of advocacy groups Federated Farmers, DairyNZ and Beef + Lamb exercised immense power over parliament.

It wasnt that farmers affected the government. Farmers were the government, says Dr Hugh Campbell, a professor of sociology at the University of Otago.

Now that power already weakened by shifts in farmers share of exports and changes to New Zealands electoral system is critically threatened from within.

In recent years, the countrys farmers have come under significant pressure for their disproportionate greenhouse gas emissions; the agricultural sector produces more than half of New Zealands industry and household emissions.

When Jacinda Arderns Labour government began introducing measures aimed at reducing farmings environmental impacts the major farming advocates worked with the government to soften the impact. But a sizeable minority of disaffected farmers who call their movement Groundswell took to the streets to oppose the policies and denounce their ostensible representatives.

According to Campbell, this emerging schism in New Zealands farming community threatens to undermine the power of their traditional representatives, who recently wielded that influence to secure $710m in funding from the revenue generated by the countrys emissions trading scheme, even though the agricultural sector is exempt from contributing to those funds until 2025. It also illustrates the difficulty many governments face as they try to reduce agricultures climate impact, even when they win support from agricultures traditional champions.

Ive been accused of being a communist, been told Ive got no nuts, says Andrew Hoggard, the president of Federated Farmers. The more rabid supporters at times get angry with everyone else.

Part of the reason many farmers are so aggrieved is a feeling that they have lost the influence they once wielded, says Campbell. Between the second world war and 1973, farmers exercised absolute power, he says. They generated the vast majority of New Zealands exports and were scattered in a way that maximised their power under the countrys old majoritarian electoral system.

The result was a shadow world of farming politics which was deeply intertwined with New Zealands government, says Campbell. Farmers had direct access to the highest levels of government, right into the cabinet room.

That power began declining in 1973, when Britains entry to the European economic zone, global oil shocks and a collapse in commodity prices undercut farmers. This was exacerbated by the 1993 introduction of a proportional electoral system, which strengthened the political power of urban New Zealanders.

If you add together all the farmers in the country, were maybe one electoral seat, says Hoggard. Its middle-class Auckland swing voters who determine the government. That makes things a hell of a lot more tricky for me than it was for whoever was in the job 30 years ago.

But even if they were no longer dominant, says Campbell, farmers had enough residual power to keep the government off their back.

In 2017, however, Arderns Labour party won power in a shock election result and proposed a raft of policies designed to improve water quality, reduce pollution and cut greenhouse gas emissions. In 2019, Federated Farmers, DairyNZ and Beef + Lamb agreed to work with the government on how to bring agriculture into the countrys emissions trading scheme, from which farmers had long fought to remain exempt.

The old days of stomping our feet and saying, This is how its gotta be and we dont care what anyone in town thinks? Theyre long gone, says Hoggard.

The proposals prompted outrage among farmers, as did agricultural representatives engagement with them. Bryce Mckenzie, the founder of Groundswell, called the governments proposals an attack on farming. Groundswells subsequent protests were attended by thousands of farmers and became venues to air wider grievances. At some, attendees flew Trump flags and carried signs with phrases like Make Ardern Go Away and Media Treason.

Much of their anger was directed at DairyNZ and Beef + Lamb, which Groundswell believes have grown too close to the government. While Mckenzie is comfortable with the approach of Federated Farmers, he says DairyNZ and Beef + Lamb are not doing the best for farming overall.

Andrew Morrison, the chair of Beef + Lamb, said: Generally speaking, theres no difference between the Federated Farmers, DairyNZ and Beef + Lamb positions. Groundswell are perceiving a difference Were all signed up to the same program.

Hoggard, meanwhile, says Groundswells success has prompted Federated Farmers to develop a more outspoken communication strategy. The risk in the back of our mind, says Hoggard, is that [farmers] ask: What do I need to pay my Federated Farmers subscription for, when Groundswell is out there saying this more vocally and aggressively?

A DairyNZ spokesperson said its chair, Jim van der Poel, was unavailable for an interview.

In March, Groundswells frustrations prompted its leaders to decline an invitation to meet with Ardern because DairyNZ and Beef + Lamb representatives would also be present. Mckenzie called them pet lobby groups of the government and failing establishment bodies. Later, in a letter to DairyNZ members, van der Poel denounced Groundswells misinformation, personal attacks and political tricks.

Theyre not on talking terms any more, says Hoggard.

The consequences of that disunity and the political weakness it exposes could be profound, says Morrison. This isnt a threat, but the government has been clear that if we cant find a solution, agriculture will end up in the emissions trading scheme Its important that the sector be united.

That schism will widen, predicts Campbell. In the worst-case scenario, he believes New Zealand could see a massive radicalisation of rural populations. We underestimate to our peril the extent to which hard rightwing, ultra-libertarian radicalisation can take root in New Zealand.

In the short term, he says, the emerging schism creates a political bind. Farming representatives are in a really awkward position: they know where they have to go but theyre up against a group that doesnt want to go anywhere at all.

Its going to be increasingly hard to paper over what is essentially a fracture in peoples sense of reality, he concluded. Federated Farmers and major agricultural sectoral groups simply cant live in a world of climate denialism and denial of environmental impacts.

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New Zealands once all-powerful farmers split amid anger over Ardern climate policy - The Guardian