Covid-19: Jacinda Ardern and the last lockdown – Stuff.co.nz

OPINION: Labours bet the house this time. It could be politically disastrous for Government if it cant eliminate Delta and we end up like New South Wales, spending months in a state of perma-lockdown until enough of the population is vaccinated.

One of the things that has become very clear during this lockdown is that we are in the last gasp of the current elimination strategy.

The dual practical and political purpose of this particular lockdown is to buy enough time to get the vaccine rollout done, before getting on with trying to reintegrate with the world and get back to life with a variation of normal.

That new life will regrettably but quite possibly require masks, certain limits of public gatherings, and general public health measures for some years.

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Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern bet the house on the latest lockdown, says Luke Malpass.

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Delta is a game-changer. It is a hackneyed phrase: the prime minister has said it, Australias Scott Morrison and NSWs Gladys Berejiklian have said it. It is a well-accepted fact. But it has been a game-changer in more than one way.

Obviously it has had a big effect on the lockdown strategy. Its fast spread is the reason for going into lockdown less than eight hours after the first case was discovered and announced.

When it comes to keeping Delta out, the view is that there are no proportionate responses. The Government is chucking the kitchen sink at it.

Thats one way it changes the game. The other and this has been reflected in the arc of changing language used by Ardern over the week is that elimination of Delta, even in the medium term, is not going to be a sustainable strategy. The transmission is too quick; it will be too hard to keep out. Fortress NZ, kept safe from Covid at the bottom of the world with our big blue moat and our closed border, isnt going to be able to rely on those any more.

Since March this year, Ardern has used the language of a barricade versus individual armour to describe our Covid response and vaccine rollout: 2020 was the year of the barricade the closed border and 2021 was to be the year of the vaccine, which would provide each of us with individual armour against the virus.

The move to individual armour theoretically meant being able to dismantle the barricade.

But what if the barricade cannot be relied upon to work? It was no coincidence that Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins explicitly warned only the week before Delta was discovered that we should all prepare for a short, sharp level 4 lockdown if it did arrive. The Governments health officials had formed the view that, with NSW on our doorstep, it was almost certain to arrive.

Sir David Skeggs group, which was advising the Government on reconnecting with the world, also had the view that Deltas arrival was inevitable in the next few months. As it turned out, by the time Skegg got up and gave his speech on the reopening plan two Thursdays ago, Covid was already back in the community.

So elimination is highly unlikely to be sustainable. There were as many cases within a week of discovering this outbreak as there were in almost the entire month at the start of last year when Covid first arrived. Director-general of health Ashley Bloomfield has summed up this difference in the most straightforward way it might as well be a different virus.

For the Government, this will have fast-forwarded the messaging around what had looked like a slow and steady plan to reopen without scaring too many voters. And if it does manage to stamp out Delta which is looking positive but far from a slam dunk the political task ahead could potentially be made even tougher.

The most difficult thing politically about reopening was always going to be the rhetorical reverse-ferret that will be required. For 18 months, everything Ardern and Labour have done has revolved around keeping Covid out. We were told it was crucial for the economy, the health system and saving lives. And it was.

Now that will have to drastically change as we reopen and accept that Delta will arrive and that, even if we wanted to, tackling it with lockdowns would simply end up costing far more than it was worth.

Skeggs group has said that New Zealand should retain its elimination strategy for now, because it can easily be jettisoned if no longer needed. But once lost, its lost forever. Once the country starts to open up again early next year which the Government, rightly, is determined to go ahead with elimination will remain the policy. But it is completely unclear how this will work.

In no small measure, the Government has successfully used fear as a big motivating factor for people over the past 18 months. Now fear could work against it. As with a lot of things in this world, the Government cant fix Covid, and will essentially have to level with the public about this fact.

Ardern said as much on Thursday: No-one wants to use lockdowns forever, and I can tell you now that is not our intention, because we have new tools for managing Covid and we will use them. But for now, while we vaccinate, elimination is the goal.

But this all turns on the vaccine rollout working and getting through basically everyone who wants a jab by the end of the year. Thats precisely the reason Ardern has turned the top of the 1pm update into a misleading advertorial about the vaccine programme, in which she or the minister fronting produces a huge headline figure of the number of New Zealanders who have either booked or had at least one vaccination. Its a nonsense number.

Being booked and being vaccinated are not the same thing. Trying to pretend that the rollout is quicker than it is by blowing up a concocted headline number does no-one any favours and hurts the Governments credibility.

But it does speak to the political vulnerability of the Government. Elimination is still the strategy, and it needs to hold until the population gets vaccinated. The lockdown has given the vaccine programme a real shot in the arm, but the high rate of 85,000-plus vaccines a day isnt sustainable, because of a lack of vaccine it will have to slow by a quarter or a third. The big delivery of vaccine some four million-odd doses wont arrive until October.

All of that means this is the last-gasp lockdown. Delta is going to be here, it is going to have to be managed, but lockdowns wont be how it is done. They are too tough, too costly and, ultimately, compliance is unlikely to remain as high in the future.

Elimination via lockdowns was arguably the best strategy. But in a world of Delta, the economic juice wont be worth the squeeze. Now the Government has to remind Kiwis that it cant save every life, and also realign its messaging around the fact that health outcomes are never the only consideration in policy-making.

This lockdown may drag on, and there may still be others before the end of the vaccine programme, but it is now clear that its time in the Covid toolkit is coming to an end.

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Covid-19: Jacinda Ardern and the last lockdown - Stuff.co.nz