Russia abandons Donbas offensive to reinforce southern flank ahead of expected Ukrainian counteroffensive – Washington Examiner

SEIZING THE STRATEGIC INITIATIVE: Russia is taking Ukraine's threat to retake the southern province of Kherson seriously, shifting forces from its eastern front to prepare for an expected Ukrainian assault to reclaim lost territory in the south.

Ukraine is likely seizing the strategic initiative and forcing Russia to reallocate forces and reprioritize efforts, says the latest assessment from the Institute for the Study of War. Russian forces are increasingly transferring personnel and equipment to Kherson and western Zaporizhia Oblasts at the expense of their efforts to seize Slovyansk and Siversk, which they appear to have abandoned.

Russian forces are also redeploying military equipment artillery and aviation in particular to Crimea from elsewhere in Ukraine, according to the Washington-based think tank. Ukraines preparations for the counteroffensive in Kherson and the initial operations in that counteroffensive combined with the dramatic weakening of Russian forces generally appear to be allowing Ukraine to begin actively shaping the course of the war for the first time.

UKRAINES SHRINKING WINDOW TO CHANGE THE WAR NARRATIVE AND PUTINS CALCULUS

CUTTING SUPPLY LINES: Ukraine continues to use the high-tech weaponry provided by the U.S., U.K., and Germany to effectively disrupt the ability of Russian forces to move ammunition and other supplies on the battlefield, according to the British Defense Ministry.

Ukraines missile and artillery units continue to target Russian military strongholds, personnel clusters, logistical support bases and ammunition depots, the ministry tweeted yesterday. This will highly likely impact Russian military logistical resupply and put pressure on Russian military combat support elements.

There's been a very significant indicator that the firepower of Russia, at the very least the ammunition, has declined precipitously because the rate of fire of the Russians in the offensive actions that they have resumed have been dramatically reduced, said retired Gen. David Petraeus on CNN.

CNN quoted Western officials as saying the Russian casualty count has reached 75,000, with 20,000 dead and 55,000 wounded and out of action.

Meanwhile, Russia is trying to raise additional forces by telling the republics in the Russian Federation to provide a battalion. I mean, that is not the way to effectively, efficiently develop capable forces, said Petraeus. It gives you an indicator, I think, about the state of desperation of the Russians.

RUSSIAS PLANTING FALSE FLAG: The U.S. is calling Russias allegation that Ukraine shelled a prison camp near Olenivka in eastern Ukraine propaganda, and it is warning that Moscow is preparing to buttress the fiction with planted evidence suggesting Ukraine targeted its heroes of Mariupol with U.S.-provided HIMARS rockets.

We anticipate that Russian officials will try to frame the Ukrainian Armed Forces in anticipation of journalists and potential investigators visiting the site of the attack, said NSC spokesman John Kirby yesterday. And we have reason to believe that the that Russia would go so far as to make it appear that Ukrainian HIMARS the High Mobility Advanced [Artillery] Rocket Systems that have been in so much in the news lately were to blame.

In his CNN interview, Petraeus reflected the view of Western experts that the explosion at the Olenivka camp which killed 50 Ukrainian prisoners but curiously no Russians did not bear the hallmarks of an artillery strike.

All of the evidence, and there is quite a bit of it in today's day and age you can get commercial satellites, you can get a lot of different information through open sources, and so far, it seems pretty conclusive that this was a false flag attack, said Petraeus. This was Russia carrying out a horrific action against individuals, prisoners of war, who are viewed as real heroes in Ukraine.

WHITE HOUSE EXPECTS RUSSIA TO TRY TO FRAME UKRAINE FOR ATTACK THAT KILLED POWS

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HAPPENING TODAY: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi held a press conference at the U.S. Embassy in Tokyo tonight (Japan time) as she wrapped up her Asia tour, the highlight of which was her stop Tuesday in Taiwan.

Pelosi noted that her visit to Taipei sparked a furious military response from Beijing. To that end, as you see, the Chinese made their strikes, probably using our visit as an excuse.

We said from the start that our representation here is not about changing the status quo here in Asia and the status quo in Taiwan, It's about, again, the Taiwan Relations Act, U.S.-China policy, all of the pieces of legislation and agreements that have established what our relationship is. To have peace in the Taiwan Straits and to have the status quo prevail.

CHINA SIGNALS PLANS FOR 'GRADUALLY AND CONTINUOUSLY' RAISING PRESSURE ON TAIWAN

PELOSI SANCTIONED: The Chinese Foreign Ministry announced today that it was imposing unspecified sanctions on Pelosi and her immediate family members because of her disregard of Chinas grave concerns and firm opposition to her Taiwan visit.

This constitutes a gross interference in Chinas internal affairs. It gravely undermines Chinas sovereignty and territorial integrity, seriously tramples on the one-China principle, and severely threatens peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, the ministry statement said.

BLINKEN: CHINAS RESPONSE SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION: Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who is in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, for a meeting of ASEAN nations, called Chinas military drills, which included firing almost a dozen missiles over Taiwan, a significant escalation.

Blinken told reporters on the sidelines of the meeting that China was using Pelosis peaceful visit as a pretext to increase provocative military activity in and around the Taiwan Strait, and that he had a vigorous communication with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who was also at the meeting.

I reiterated the points that we made publicly as well as directly to Chinese counterparts in recent days, again, about the fact that they should not use the visit as a pretext for war, escalation, for provocative actions, that there is no possible justification for what theyve done and urge them to cease these actions, Blinken said, according to the Associated Press.

BLINKEN WARNS CHINA NOT TO RISK 'UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES' MILITARILY OVER TAIWAN

MENENDEZ, RISCH: CHINA BULLYING TAIWAN: In a bipartisan joint statement, Sens. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) and Jim Risch (R-ID), leaders of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, called Chinas live-fire exercises around Taiwan dangerous and provocative.

The extensive drills which essentially represent a blockade create immense risks for passengers in civilian airlines and ships on the high seas, the senators said, calling the war games yet another chapter in Beijings unrelenting efforts to bully and coerce Taipei.

To be clear, Speaker Pelosis visit to Taiwan provides no justification for this sort of measure. Beijing should not be under any false illusion that these military drills will lessen resolve in the United States or elsewhere, or erode our commitment to stand with the people of Taiwan and their right to determine their own future. Just the opposite.

ROGERS: DELAY OF ICBM TEST WEAK-KNEED PEARL-CLUTCHING: The White House announced yesterday that a routine test of Americas aging arsenal of Minuteman III was being postponed so as not to inflame the situation in Taiwan, where China is firing missiles and conducting live-fire war games to show its displeasure with Speaker Pelosis visit.

We do not believe it is in our interest, Taiwans interest, the regions interest to allow tensions to escalate further, which is why a long-planned Minuteman III ICBM test scheduled for this week has been rescheduled for the near future, said John Kirby at the White House.

The announcement provoked a biting response from Rep. Mike Rogers (R-AL), the top Republican on the House Armed Services Committee, who said the pattern of suspending routine tests projects weakness.

Earlier this year, President Biden canceled a long-standing Minuteman III ICBM test as a useless concession to Vladimir Putin. Now, we learn that President Biden has postponed a second ICBM test to placate Xis tantrums, Rogers said in a statement.

These weak-kneed pearl-clutching attempts at appeasement hurts our readiness and will only invite further aggression by our adversaries.

NEW DOD SPOKESMAN: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has tapped a one-star general to fill the Pentagon press secretary post left vacant by John Kirbys move to the White House last May.

Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder is currently director of public affairs for the Air Force, and like Kirby, he has a long resume of public affairs positions and is generally well-regarded by the Pentagon press corps.

He will spend the next few weeks closing out his Air Force and Space Force responsibilities before assuming his new role later this month, Austin said in a statement.

No mention was made of whether Ryder would retire from the Air Force and serve as a civilian. Kirby previously served as Pentagon press secretary while an active duty rear admiral but was replaced by then-Defense Secretary Ash Carter, who felt it was important to have a civilian serve as chief spokesperson, especially because the job requires defending administration policy.

Kirby went on to retire and then take a job as State Department spokesman in the Obama administration.

BRIG. GEN. PATRICK S. RYDER NAMED PENTAGON PRESS SECRETARY

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FRIDAY | AUGUST 5

1:15 p.m. 405 E 42nd St., New York, N.Y. Defense Undersecretary for Policy Colin Kahl participates in a virtual discussion: U.S. Nuclear Policy" at the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference. Livestream at https://media.un.org/en/asset/k1h/k1hev56ufq

These weak-kneed pearl-clutching attempts at appeasement hurts our readiness and will only invite further aggression by our adversaries.

Rep. Mike Rogers (R-AL), lead Republican of the House Armed Services Committee, reacting to the news the Biden administration has delayed a previously planned Minuteman III ICBM test to avoid provoking China.

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Russia abandons Donbas offensive to reinforce southern flank ahead of expected Ukrainian counteroffensive - Washington Examiner