Fact Check: Will The Oceans Be Empty of Fish by 2048, And Other Seaspiracy Concerns – ScienceAlert

Seaspiracy, the Netflix documentary premiered in March 2021 which exposes the darker side to the fishing industry, has caused much controversy since its release. One of the more dramatic claims made in the film was that, due to fishing, all of the fish in the sea will have disappeared by 2048.

To check this fact, we asked 8 experts in fisheries sciences, marine sciences, and ecology:Will the oceans be empty of fish by 2048?. Sevenout of eight answered'extremely unlikely'.

Ali Tabrizi, Seaspiracy's director and narrator, says in the documentary that "if current fishing trends continue, we will see virtually empty oceans by the year 2048". This claim has been echoed across manynews articlesand blogs since it was made in 2006, but where does it come from?

Ascientific paperpublished inScienceby Boris Worm and colleagues in 2006 which looked at the decline of marine populations and species. They found that loss of marine biodiversity has important effects on the ecosystem.

In one sentence in the concluding paragraph, they alsosaid thatthe "current trend is of serious concern because it projects the global collapse of all taxa currently fished by the mid-21stcentury".

Dr Michael Melnychuk, an expert in fisheries sciences from Washington University, highlights some of the issues with the 2006 prediction. Hesaysthat "the definitions of 'collapsed' by the authors are based on catch data, but these do not necessarily reflect abundances of fish populations".

He alsopoints outthat the method used by the authors to extrapolate data into the future was not realistic.

Dr Robert Steneck, an expert in oceanography from Maine University,highlightsthat "three years after the initial publicationWorm et al 2009(also published in Science) pointed out that many fish stocks are rebuilding globally".

Since 2006, the authors have also tried to emphasize the broader conclusions of their findingsinstead of this prediction.

There have also beennumerous scientific publicationsheavily criticizing the 2048 prediction for the reasons highlighted by Dr Melnychuk, but unfortunately this claim has stuck.

Dr Melnychukhighlightsa final reason why the 2048 prediction is inaccurate, it "assumes that our hands are tied and these trends will continue indefinitely".

Seapiracy claimed that oceans will be empty of fish by 2048 even though this prediction has been strongly refuted for over 10 years. Othersimilarly contentious claimswere made throughout the film in order to expose the darker side of the fishing industry and suggest that the only way to save the oceans is to stop fishing altogether.

Some of the experts believe that this overly negative image of the fishing industry could do more harm than good to the oceans.

Dr Alec Christie, an expert in marine biology from the University of Cambridge,says"the way this movie used data from scientific papers was a good example of questionable research practices - cherry-picking and unjustifiable and opaquely extrapolating data beyond the bounds of the study."

Dr Holden Harris, an expert in Fisheries Sciences from Florida University,addsthat Seaspiracy omitted some of the achievements in sustainable fishing.

"The convenient oversight of not including the many, many success stories of good management guided by science and community (e.g., US fisheries) provides an extremist view of the issue," says Harris.

"I also personally know some of the interviewees in the film, who have spent their life work in ocean conservation, and do not deserve the false light cast on to them.This is not how progress is made."

However, not all the experts agreed that the inaccuracies of Seaspiracy mean it does more harm than good. Dr Simon Allen, an expert in marine science from Bristol University,points outthat "at the end of the day, love it or loathe it, Seaspiracy has got some tongues wagging and people asking questions."

All the experts agreed with one claim made by Seaspiracy: overfishing is a serious issue.

Dr Harrissaysthat "today, it's likely that 1/3 of the world's fish stocks worldwide are overexploited or depleted. This is certainly an issue that deserves widespread concern."

Dr Allenaddsthat "overfishing is still the biggest problem on the global high seas".

Dr Christie's concluding opinion on Seaspiracyis that"we all agree that its message of the ecological harm of industrial fisheries is a major urgent issue, but we need to present facts not fiction and unite, build consensus, and use rational arguments to convince people to change."

It is unlikely that the oceans will be empty of fish by 2048. Although experts disagreed on the effectiveness of the Seaspiracy documentary to help protect the oceans, they all agreed that overfishing is a major issue.

Article based on 8 expert answers to this question: Will the oceans be empty of fish by 2048?

This expert response was published in partnership with independent fact-checking platform Metafact.io. Subscribe to their weekly newsletter here.

Read the rest here:

Fact Check: Will The Oceans Be Empty of Fish by 2048, And Other Seaspiracy Concerns - ScienceAlert