Johnson should make the most of his popularity, because it wont last – The Guardian

The sun shines on the prime minister, despite everything.

The mood of the people soars as the YouGov mood tracker finds nearly half happy, up from just 20% in early January. Many more are optimistic or content. Everywhere the talk is of pubs, hairdressers, relief at schools being open, hope for summer holidays and the joy of vaccinations.

See how the news favours the government. Take this week: the unpopular European Super League collapses after government threats, Hiring picks up in sign of recovery, Businesses report strong trade, PM aims to supercharge hunt for Covid treatments and Johnsons ambitious green target all this in one days Financial Times, no Johnson fanzine. Sidestepping the sleaze, the government is micro-managing the news ahead of the 6 May elections. Naturally those stories are not all they seem. But how wise it has been to abandon that 2.6m newsroom where reporters would be daily shouting out rude words such as Greensill, Arcuri and food banks.

Most people, most of the time, think and talk about politics very little. The election expert Prof John Curtice says only a third, at most, are interested. There is a correlation between an intense interest in politics and unhappiness, which is all too familiar to Labour supporters. But out there most people are happily emerging from the greatest national trauma of our lifetimes, many with overflowing bank balances to spend. Rishi Sunak has deliberately set the property market booming, as his reckless stamp duty holiday causes a 16-year high in sales, gifting house owners an average 8.6% boost in property value. Yes, its disgusting that Foxtons estate agents took almost 7m in support from the taxpayer yet is giving its chief executive a monster bonus. But, hey, this is hedonism time, the perfect fit for Boris Johnsons persona. Theres no luckier time for local elections in just two weeks. Polling puts the Tories nine percentage points ahead, with Johnson riding high.

In his first election outing, Keir Starmer is cast as a killjoy, pointing to all the reasons not to be cheerful and there are plenty. Expectations of election results are low: Labour and Curtice predict as many losses as gains. Because of last years postponement, these elections will be complex to deconstruct, as they relate to seats won and lost last time in different years. For example, Labour entered the 2017 local elections as much as 19 points behind, so could make gains in some places. But in places with elections last in 2016, pre-Brexit, Labour was just three points behind, so may now take losses. Labours best hopes are the Tees Valley, West of England and West Midlands mayors, and maybe a couple of counties, Derbyshire and Lancashire, even if the party trails in the country overall. While the sun shines, stories of sleaze may take time to permeate through to politics avoiders. In the 1990s John Major set himself up for a fall with his back to basics campaign. Yes, bad behaviour is priced in with Johnson, but how much sleaze will be tolerated for how long?

Starmer has heaved Labour back from a 20-point abyss, and done well at skewering the governments deadly Covid blunders, but any opposition party would have been silenced by vaccine success. After these elections, Labour will be forced into a serious confrontation with the elemental shape-shift in British politics, a gradual evolution that suddenly exploded into Brexit. There is no going back to the old certainties of left and right or geography, warns Curtice.

Johnsons tanks are parked on acres of Labours old lawns, with his levelling up and left behind talk and his shameless towns fund bribes to newly won northern seats. The danger is that all thats left for Labour is to defend poor and disadvantaged people, who dont vote much anyway: Labours high score for caring doesnt earn many votes. The party founded to represent the working class reels in shock at losing seats in places long considered working-class heartlands. Labour may wish Brexit would vanish down a memory hole, but Curtice warns it remains the key electoral divide and Johnson plans to make extolling Brexit benefits a centrepiece in the next election. As 80% of Labours vote now comes from remain supporters, the only realistic choice open to the party is to craft an appeal that will maintain and enhance its support among remain voters, be they working class or not, writes Curtice.

A majority in the 2019 election, 52%, voted for parties backing a second referendum: Labour must come to terms with its new nature as the party backed by the urban and suburban, young, skilled, graduates and ethnic minorities. It needs to win seats like Londons Bromley and Chislehurst, which Curtice tells me would take Labour into a majority and thats not impossible, as young, well-educated people spread out to old Tory suburbs. Can Labour cope with such an identity change?

It will be more at ease contemplating the Johnson governments likely fall from grace by next spring. As last months budget made cuts in virtually every department, Britain will be deep in a new austerity, for all Johnsons promises. The NHS has nothing like the money or staff to cope with unprecedented waiting lists, nor have schools a fraction of what it takes to help children catch up. Youth unemployment will be worse and local councils poleaxed again. The Tory party will be riven between fiscal old-timers demanding cuts to the deficit, and Johnsons desire to splash out on eye-catchers.

Cassandra-like doom warnings wont get Labour elected but there will be an urgent yearning for it to paint a picture of a far better country, with Joe Bidens boldness and borrowing suggesting the way ahead. The current euphoria will fade as people tire of Johnsons sleazy salesmanship. There will be no Tory levelling up, as his tanks on Labour lawns will be exposed as cardboard disintegrating in the austerity rain.

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Johnson should make the most of his popularity, because it wont last - The Guardian