Why You Should Never Fly After Noon During The Holidays – Forbes

Want to lower the risk of a delayed flight? Book an early flight.

For travelers who want to dramatically lower the risk of a delayed flight during the holiday period, the golden rule is to book the earliest flight possible on your travel day.

The early bird gets airborne, statistically, with less delays and fewer cancellations, says Kathleen Bangs, a former commercial airline pilot and current spokesperson for FlightAware, an app that provides real-time, historical, and predictive flight tracking data.

The later it gets in the day, the more likely your flight is to be delayed or cancelled, explains Bangs. As the day wears on, airlines have less options for passengers which is why if you really need to be on-time, taking the morning flight is often your best bet.

This trend plays out throughout the year, even during non-holiday periods. In July 2021 at the 30 largest airports in the United States, for example, roughly 85% to 90% of morning flights were on time. Comparatively, 65% to 70% of flights leaving between 3 p.m. and 8 p.m. were delayed, according to the Office of Aviation Consumer Protection, which uses data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics and Transportation Security Administration (TSA).

Importantly, this pattern becomes amplified during busy travel periods like Thanksgiving week and the holiday period that starts before Christmas and runs through the New Year.

When FlightAware crunched flight data for Thanksgiving week over the past 10 years, it found a clear pattern of flight delays ramping up sharply as the day progressed. Flights scheduled to depart around 5 p.m. experienced the most delays of all. On the busiest days the Tuesday before and Sunday after Thanksgiving there were roughly 50% more delays for 5 p.m. departures compared to noon departures.

The odds of Thanksgiving flight delays increases as the day rolls on.

The domino pattern spikes over holiday periods simply because there are more flights leaving airports. Flights scheduled to depart late in the day are more vulnerable to delays because airlines reuse planes and crews throughout the day. So when one flight is delayed, it causes a chain reaction for other flights that rely on the same resources.

Later segment flights, which are those relying on crew and potentially the plane itself from a prior segment, are more susceptible to be delayed, explains Adit Damodaran, economist at Hopper, the airfare deal-finding site. In other words, an early flight getting delayed can have a ripple effect in which subsequent flights are also delayed.

So how can travelers diminish the risk of getting sucked into the delayed-flight vortex? Set your alarm clock. We recommend booking the earliest flight available, so youre less likely to be impacted by delays from earlier in the day, says Damodaran. If youre booked on an afternoon flight and some earlier flight gets disrupted, youre likely getting disrupted, too.

Next, be sure to build in extra time at the airport. Early, early, early, says Bangs. Get to the airportearly, especially if you do not have TSA Precheck. The security lines could be very long over the holidays.

If you have a choice between airports, it can be smart to choose the smaller option. Our data suggests that aside from whether the flight relies on earlier segments, the number of concurrent departing flights can also be a strong indicator of delays, says Damodaran. This is more likely on busier travel days at larger airports.

Want an early heads-up on potential delays? Keep an eye on the national weather forecast. Last weekend,American Airlines cancelled more than 2,000 flights, blaming bad weather and staffing shortages. The same issues caused widespread cancellations for Southwest and Spirit Airlines in recent months.

Look up the weather online in advance and recognize if large storm systems could impact your departure or arrival airport, suggests Bangs. As weve seen lately, even a storm system not in your path can still impact your airline in terms of delays and cancellations.

TheFlightAware appgives travelers real-time flight tracking and customizable flight status push alerts and notifications. You can check flight statuses by airline, airport and specific flight. In addition, check out FlightAwares interactiveMiseryMapto see which airports are shaping up to be migraine hubs. Hover over a problematic airport, and the map will show you which routes are experiencing the most delays and cancellations.

Its also a good idea to lock in some insurance. Travelers booking through Hopper can add change for any reason protection to their reservations. This plan gives you the power to instantly change your flight, including date, time, and airline, for any reason up to 24 hours prior to your scheduled departure with no added fees, says Damodaran, noting that Hopper also offers a cancel for any reason option as well as a flight rebooking guarantee. If your trip is delayed or you miss your connection, you can instantly rebook the next flight to your destination in the app no matter the airline at no additional cost.

Lastly, you might consider booking a back-up flight. My personal favorite trick is I often buy separate refundable or at least changeable tickets on two different airlines, leaving two to four hours apart, says Bangs. That way, if something happens with one carrier, I can hop on the other flight, and still have a ticket that can be refunded or used later for another flight A big caveat: You must cancel the unused flight before it departs, or youll forfeit any refund or changes.

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Why You Should Never Fly After Noon During The Holidays - Forbes