Tiny Nicks Gambling Picks: 11/29 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Washington Wizards @ Orlando Magic -9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports FL

We might be reaching the top of the market with Orlando here, as Im not completely sold that they should be a double-digit favorite. Unless of course the opponent is Washington, who continues to show a complete lack of seriousness on the court. That lack of seriousness and competitiveness mostly comes in the second half of games for the Wizards, as theyre 29th in average second-half margin.

So that has me looking away from the strong Magic record in first halves and expecting their talent to eventually win out down the stretch here. The strength of Orlandos defense should carry them, even against an up-tempo team like the Wizards, who will refuse to play any defense themselves. With the Magic an excellent 8-1 against the number in home games, I expect them to be able to win by margin here against an awful team.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Houston Rockets/Denver Nuggets Under 216.5 (-110; Odds Via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Altitude

Im not usually looking to mess with the under on totals in this range given the modern NBA, but these teams are different. Houston and Denver are a combined 22-11 to the under this season, and get off to especially slow starts. And theyve already played twice this season, going under in both meetings with just 211 and 191 points.

As usual its all about tempo, and these are two of the slowest teams in the league with the Rockets 28th and the Nuggets 25th in pace. Theyre also very good defensively, with both teams top-8 in defensive rating, efficiency, points allowed, and opponent effective field goal rate. There are also plenty of injury issues for both squads including Nikola Jokic, so Im just not seeing a lot of points in this one.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) North Florida/Iowa First Half Over 80 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on BTN

Itll take an act of Congress for me to stop betting the over when Iowa hosts a cupcake school in Carver-Hawkeye Arena. The consistency is amazing, as their three games this year have averaged 87.3 first half points. The second halves are actually slowing down though, averaging just 81 points, which makes this derivative total out of line with the full-game number of 167.5 points.

Im jumping on that value here as the opponent doesnt seem to matter for the Hawkeyes, they just run it up and make numbers like this very reachable. I dont think theyll have any trouble with that against a North Florida team thats 330th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and havent seen an offense anywhere near what they will tonight. The Ospreys also hoist the 11th-most threes in the country, so those will either go in or create runouts, leading to plenty of early points no matter what.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Colorado/Colorado State Over 148 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 8:00 PM CT on CBSSN

If this game has half the excitement of the football game these schools played this fall, were in for a fun and high-scoring game. These are two very good teams with very good offenses, both top-40 in adjusted offensive efficiency, and both play at an above average pace.

The key for me here is Colorados usually strong defense taking a big step back when the team isnt at home, and this will be their first true road game. Colorado State has long been a team that pushes tempo and scores like crazy in Fort Collins, so with KenPom making this just a slight over lean, Ill take a shot that the offenses shine tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Louisiana Tech/New Mexico Over 148.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 8:00 PM CT on MW Network

Another slight edge from KenPom has this game sneaking over the total, but its a number I was surprised by. New Mexico is always going to play up-tempo with a strong offensive game, and are actually all the way up to 6th nationally in adjusted tempo. I just dont think Louisiana Tech is ready for it, as they havent played a team anywhere near as fast-paced as the Lobos this year.

The only actual test from their extremely soft schedule was a trip to the aforementioned Colorado State Rams, who put up 81 points with excellent interior scoring. Thats what New Mexico does best, as theyre 13th in the country for percentage of points from inside the arc. I think this Bulldogs defense is in for a rude awakening here, and Ill take the over on what is a very discounted total when the Lobos are involved.

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Tiny Nick is 1710-1504 ATS (+87.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.

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Tiny Nicks Gambling Picks: 11/29 - Zone Coverage