NFL playoffs gambling guide: Locks, props, parlays, teasers, what to avoid and more for the divisional round – CBS Sports

We have made it to the divisional round of the NFL playoffs, and if this weekend is anything like the wild-card round, we are in for quite an entertaining couple of days. There were surprises in all four games last week, but now that the wheat has been separated from the chaff and the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds are ready to host the victors from last weekend -- we can finally begin to evaluate who has a chance to make Super Bowl LIV.

All home teams are favorites this weekend, which shouldn't surprise anyone. But there are some interesting six-point teasers which I'll analyze below, as well as reveal the bets you should avoid and some long shots I'm interested in putting money on.

You may also want to get a few other experts' breakdowns. For that, the Pick Six Podcast always turns into a picks show on Fridays. Pete Prisco and R.J. White joined Will Brinson on this episode, which you can listen to below or click here to subscribe for all the episodes:

As for my picks, let's jump in now:

Deshaun Watson orchestrated an incredible comeback against the Buffalo Bills last week, but the Chiefs are one of the hottest teams in the NFL. Patrick Mahomes and Co. have won their last six games, including their last three by double digits. They are going to want to make a statement on Sunday, which is why they will win by double digits. The Houston Texansneeded divine intervention to win at home last week, so I'll take the well-rested Chiefs to advance.

Williams was injured in Week 11 and missed the following three games. He came back and rushed for 65 yards on 16 rushes in Week 16, and then 124 yards and two touchdowns on 12 rushes against the Los Angeles Chargers in the regular-season finale. Head coach Andy Reid clearly has made him an important part of this offense, and if the Chiefs get up early, they are going to rely on him a good amount down the stretch. Devin Singletary rushed for 58 yards on 13 carries last week against the Texans, and defenders had a hard time bringing him down. I think Williams can rush for more than 55 yards.

The Tennessee Titans scored an impressive 20-13 victory over the New England Patriots last Saturday, but Tannehill certainly did not impress in his first postseason start. He completed just 8 of 15 passes for 72 yards, one touchdown and one interception. The Titans wanted to run the Patriots to death with Derrick Henry, and they are going to try to do it again against the Baltimore Ravens this weekend. Tannehill will pass for at least 100 yards this week, but not 220 yards.

Many people seem to believe the Seahawks are going to beat the Green Bay Packers straight up just because Matt LaFleur's team failed to register any impressive wins this season. Still, the defense led the Packers to a 13-3 record, and Aaron Rodgers played well enough to secure a first-round bye. On the flip side, the Seahawks barely defeated a Philadelphia Eagles team with Josh McCown under center. I have the Packers winning this game by more than a field goal.

The point total of 44 for Vikings-49ers is the lowest of any game this weekend. The Vikings needed overtime to score more than 20 points against the New Orleans Saints last weekend, and Jimmy Garoppolo will make his first postseason start on Saturday. This Minnesota defense was absolutely outstanding in the wild-card round, and while I have the 49ers winning this matchup -- I don't think it's going to be anything close to a shootout.

It was impressive what the Titans did last weekend on the road against the Patriots, but they don't have much of a chance to beat the Ravens on Saturday. The Ravens haven't lost since late September and they have won their past three games by double digits. They are going to want to make a statement in front of their home fans this postseason.

Jackson has rushed for two touchdowns only once this season, but it could happen on Saturday. If the Ravens get up early, they will try to run down the clock, and Jackson is arguably their best option on the ground. I think he will rush for at least one touchdown, and who knows, Josh Allen caught a touchdown last week -- maybe Jackson will catch one off a trick play this week.

The Eagles played the Seahawks tough last week, but Russell Wilson should have scored more than just 17 points in Philly. The Packers defense is pretty relentless, and he will spend most of Sunday dodging Za'Darius Smith and Preston Smith. It wouldn't be surprising if the Seahawks are the lowest scoring team this weekend.

There's a saying in Tennessee that all Firkser does is catch touchdowns. Obviously it's somewhat of a joke since he only caught two touchdown passes this season, but there's also some truth to the matter. The backup tight end actually led all Titans receivers with 23 yards on two receptions last week, and caught Tannehill's only touchdown pass. Firkser is a red zone threat, and if the Titans plan on moving the ball slowly and methodically down the field using Henry, that means Firkser is going to have a shot on third-and-goal.

Ranking the moneyline value is always tough and completely subjective. Spread aside, I think the 49ers are going to beat the Vikings in San Francisco. Stefon Diggs has been sick all week and Adam Thielen received stitches in his ankle on Wednesday. The Ravens should beat the Titans and I put the Vikings at No. 4 since they shocked us last week. Maybe those people in Minneapolis are up to something. In the wild-card round I was convinced the Bills and Titans would win, so they were high in my mind when ranking the moneyline value. This week, I don't have an underdog that I'm absolutely in love with.

It's possible that the Chiefs could blow the Texans out, but if you're nervous about the nine-point spread, take the teaser. We've already discussed that I like the 49ers, but I don't think they will blow the Vikings out -- which is why Minnesota is at No. 3 at +13.

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NFL playoffs gambling guide: Locks, props, parlays, teasers, what to avoid and more for the divisional round - CBS Sports