Falling case numbers may yet save the PM’s bacon – Telegraph.co.uk

Two years into his premiership, Boris Johnson finds himself - yet again - in a tight spot.

The significant poll lead the Conservative Party hassustained over Labour ever since the vaccine rollout began in earnest at the start of the yearis evaporating. YouGov and Survation both have the Tories dipping below the 40 per centthreshold, theirlead down to four points in their latest surveys. Opinium has just recorded a ten-point drop in the Governments net approval rating for its handling of the pandemic apromise of trouble down the line.

And Keir Starmer has just made an important tactical decision that could further complicate matters for the PM. Starmer's choice not to back the implementation of Covid vaccine passports leaves the Government open toCommons defeat, given the objections of dozens of Tory backbenchers.

Those pointing to polling that suggests around 70 per cent of the public support vaccine passports are rather missing the point. Ever since the pandemic began, polls have found Labour voters much more inclined than Tory ones to back the withdrawal of normal liberties.But the current tribe of Labour voters shorn of its working class red wallers is most unlikely to switch its support to the Conservatives and would probably forgive Starmer for his stance if it results in the hated Johnson getting a bloody nose.

On the other hand, there is no doubt that the announcement of vaccine passports has enraged a large chunk of the Conservative base, triggering a rash of resignations among grassroots members and outpourings of fury in the shires. So if the policy is actually implemented at the end of September then we should expect a further Tory slump, despite it polling well with the electorate overall.

The measure has come to symbolise a growing feeling that Johnson has mislaid the fundamentals of Conservatism whether in the growing size of the state or his Government's readiness to intrude on the private citizen, impose higher taxes or allow fiscal discipline to crumble. A tendency to exempt ministers from the standards expectedof the general public, illustrated by the PM's lethargic handling of the Matt Hancock affair and his initial willingness to allow himself and his Chancellor to dodge the consequences of the pingdemic, has also outraged voters.

Yet the PMs detractors should not get carried away. They have predicted his downfall many times before for instance, when the Supreme Court declared his prorogation of the Commons unlawful in autumn 2019 and when he appeared to bungle lockdown decisions while in shopping trolley mode in autumn 2020 and yet he bounced back each time.

As David Cameron, his contemporary at Eton and Oxford, wryly observed when Johnson concluded a new Withdrawal Agreement with the EU against expectations: The thing about the greased piglet is that he manages to slip through other peoples hands where mere mortals fail.

And a new escape route could already be opening up. Against the expectations of many experts and also contrary to Starmer's predictions -last Monday he declared that were heading to 100,000 cases a day - the latest official statistics show that new Covid cases are falling away. If this trend (which is now well-enough established to have led to a 4.5% fall in the seven-day average for case numbers) continues, then some Whitehall-watchersbelieve the PM will shelve the Covid passports policy, declaring it unnecessary.

It would then be seen as a mere ruse that was used to dragoon many younger adults down to vaccination centres for fear of not being allowed into nightclubs or football grounds in the autumn. No doubt it would still be highly resented as such by those of a libertarian disposition who follow politics closely, but its disappearance in a puff of smoke might well save the PMs bacon yet again.

By the end of nextweek, we will probably see whether the decline incase numbers will be sustained. Ministers fear it may be a blip caused by a reduction in mixing after the end of the Euros football tournament and that the July 19 Freedom Day relaxations will soon feed through into a new upward trend.

Yet the prize swinging tantalisingly towards the Prime Ministers reach is that normality resumes just as the virus ebbs away. Yes, there will need to be autumn booster shots for the over-50s. But his gamble of pressing ahead with relaxations on July 19 (notwithstanding the pingdemic and the threat of vaccine passports), on the basis of if not now, when? will have been vindicated.

Being able to throw Starmers doom-laden prediction of 100,000 daily cases plus a consequent upsurge in deaths back in his face in the autumn, and declare the UK the first major European country to have beaten the pandemic, would constitute a major political moment. The greased piglet would be running free once again.

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Falling case numbers may yet save the PM's bacon - Telegraph.co.uk