Boris Johnson wants a feel-good Conservative Party conference, but a grassroots storm is brewing in Manchester – iNews

This weekend, a political leader will descend on Manchester preaching the old religion, tax cuts and deregulation. Only it wont be Boris Johnson kicking off the first in-person Conservative Party conference since he won with a majority of 80. Instead, it will be the leader of the Reform party, Richard Tice, whose event in the city overlaps with the Tories.

Sitting at 4 per cent in the polls, Reform doesnt currently pose a threat to Johnsons Tories, who continue to lead comfortably over Labour despite a fuel crisis. But the fact that Tice and his team spy an opportunity in Manchester in the first place points to discontent building among the grassroots. Can todays Conservative party still call itselfConservative?

Since entering No 10, Mr Johnson has moved the party to the left on economics, pledging higher spending and distancing himself from the austerity years under David Cameron. He has just committed to a rise in national insurance for both workers and employers, to pay for more spending on health and social care.

His love of spending and big infrastructure projects has caused alarm to his Chancellor, with Rishi Sunak worried over inflation warnings, the cost of living and servicing the national debt.

Meanwhile, the one-time freedom-loving politician who railed against the nanny state has transformed into a more cautious figure.

While some of this can be put down to leading the country through a pandemic and ending up in intensive care himself it means that, while the first conference since the Prime Ministers election victory (the 2020 event was a virtual affair because of the virus) ought to be a celebratory affair, many Tory activists will arrive wondering what the point of the partys majority is.

While this shift to the centre has played out well in the polls, his core base tend to take a different view. Its not a coincidence that some of the harshest criticism of the Johnson Government these days comes from those on the right whether its his former paper, The Telegraph, or MPs in his own party.

It is why this years event could still hold plenty of awkward moments for the Prime Minister and his Chancellor.

Many activists and MPs are still smarting at the fact that this is a tax-raisingGovernment. There are increasing concerns on the Tory right over the partys fiscal reputation. With a cost of living crisis looming as a result of staff shortages, gas price rises, the universal credit uplift suspension and possible inflation, the Government will come under pressure to spend more.

While some MPs are pushing for it, others are concerned. When a new 500m hardship fund was announced to soften the ending of the 20-a-week boost to universal credit, it divided opinion. MPs on the right suggested on Tory WhatsApp that it would add to borrowing and national debt.

Warnings this week from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey point to turbulence ahead. Mr Sunak can expect to face such questions this week at the conference, while fringes including Boom or Bust: The Economy in a Post-Pandemic World look set to stir up divides. Fiscal Conservatives such as Steve Baker will be sharing their thoughts outside the conference hall throughout the week.

Mr Sunak will use his speech to focus on jobs and the recovery. But the Chancellor will also face a grilling from his own side on the fringes when he appears for an in conversation on Tuesday with the director of the Institute of Economic Affairs and the chief executive of the TaxPayers Alliance. Both think tanks panned the national insurance rise.

The other area that risks a grassroots backlash is net zero. The phrase dominates the titles for the various fringe events and is seen by the Prime Minister as a good news story. Ahead of the COP26 summit in November, Mr Johnson wants to flex his greencredentials.

Yet there is already a storm growing. Several Tory MPs have formed a caucus with which to push to find the real cost of these policies. Expect some kickback from the grassroots in the fringe discussions on the issue. Even MPs on panels could struggle to stick to the script. The recent gas price rise is seen as tricky timing for a push on going green, given the rising costs people are feeling.

Mr Johnson wants to use the conference to return to his domestic agenda and focus on the recovery. The Prime Minister likes to make speeches and he will want announcements to go in them. Just look at Johnsons widely panned lacklustre levelling-up speech earlier this year as a warning of what happens when there is little of substance.

When Mr Johnson addresses his party, his supporters will want more than good news and optimism. They will want to know who is paying for what and what exactly is it for?

Katy Balls is deputy political editor of The Spectator

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Boris Johnson wants a feel-good Conservative Party conference, but a grassroots storm is brewing in Manchester - iNews