MIXED RESULTS: Five days into an agreement with the Taliban, and five days before peace talks are supposed to begin between the Taliban and the Afghan government, the United States is trying to keep the warring parties on the path to peace.
This agreement ... lays out a framework by which we could proceed toward an eventual intra-Afghan negotiation, Defense Secretary Mark Esper told Congress yesterday. It was supposed to happen at this point five days from now, and the results so far have been mixed.
On Tuesday, the Taliban mounted 43 separate attacks against government checkpoints in Afghanistans restive Helmand province, according to Col. Sonny Leggett, the chief spokesman for U.S Forces in Afghanistan. The resumption of violence resulted in the deaths of 25 Afghan troops, according to one report, and prompted a U.S. drone strike against the Taliban yesterday. In a tweet, Leggett said that Taliban fighters appear intent on squandering the opportunity for peace.
SMALL, LOW-LEVEL ATTACKS: Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley, who appeared with Esper before the Senate Armed Services Committee, downplayed the significance of the resumption of violence, dismissing the Taliban offensive as a series of small, low-level attacks out on checkpoints.
They're all beaten back, they're at small, little outposts, said Milley, adding, There's a whole laundry list of these things that aren't happening There's no attacks in 34 provincial capitals, there's no attacks in Kabul, there's no high-profile attacks, there's no suicide bombers, there's no vehicle-borne suicide, no attack against U.S. forces, no attack against coalition.
MAJOR DISAGREEMENTS: One thing has become clear since the historic agreement was signed in Doha on Saturday the U.S. and the Taliban have very different views about the Talibans responsibility to further reduce violence as peace talks begin.
The Taliban are honoring their piece of it in terms of not attacking U.S. and coalition forces but not in terms of sustaining the reduction of violence. Our special envoy is over there now, he's going to bring pulling the parties back together, Esper said, referring to Zalmay Khalilzad, the U.S. diplomat who negotiated the U.S. troop withdrawal agreement.
Esper suggested that the latest attack may have been conducted by rogue commanders who need to be reined in. Keeping that group of people on board is a challenge, he said. They've got their range of hardliners and softliners, and so, they're wrestling with that, too, I think.
KHALILZADS CHALLENGE: In addition to trying to get the Taliban to back off, Khalilzad is attempting to resolve the impasse over the U.S. promise to facilitate the release of up to 5,000 Taliban prisoners in a swap that was supposed to be a prelude to next Tuesday's peace talks. Afghan President Asraf Ghani has vetoed that part of the deal, which was made without his input.
In a series of tweets, Khalilzad said he met last night with Taliban chief negotiator Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar for a candid discussion about next steps, followed by a constructive phone call with President Trump.
VERY GOOD RELATIONSHIP: After that call, Trump told reporters, The relationship is very good that I have with the mullah. And we had a good, long conversation today. And, you know, they want to cease the violence. They'd like to cease violence also.
Asked about the reluctance of the Afghan government to release thousands of Taliban fighters without a ceasefire or any progress on peace talks, Trump said, Well, they may be reluctant. You know, they've done very well with the United States for many years, far beyond military, if you look at all the money that we've spent in Afghanistan. We've spent trillions of dollars. Trillions of dollars.
US is committed to facilitating prisoner exchange, agreed in both US-Taliban Agreement & US-Afghanistan Joint Declaration. We will support each side to release significant numbers, Khalilzad tweeted.
THE BIG PROBLEM: The U.S. has oversold the agreement with the Taliban in its zeal to carry out Trumps desire to get out of Afghanistan after more than 18 years of war, argues Bill Roggio, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, who notes the deal includes no stipulations that the Taliban must halt attacks on Afghan forces.
Roggio accuses the U.S. of an active disinformation campaign by officials who seem determined to misrepresent the agreement.
On Sunday, [Secretary of State Mike] Pompeo claimed that the Taliban denounced al Qaeda and was committed to destroy the group. However, the deal says no such thing, Roggio writes. Instead, the Taliban committed to preventing al Qaeda from attacking the U.S. and its allies. This is the same commitment the Taliban made numerous times prior to Sept. 11, 2001. The Taliban has made similar promises since 9/11, yet it has harbored al Qaeda and other terror groups that have plotted against the U.S. and its allies.
Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyres Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited this morning by David Sivak. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesnt work, shoot us an email and well add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is meeting in Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin to try to reach a ceasefire agreement that would end fighting between Turkish forces and Syrian government troops in Syria's northwestern Idlib province.
Syrian forces, with Russian air cover, were on a march to wipe out the last rebel stronghold in Syria when they ran smack into Turkish troops and found themselves up against the second-largest army in NATO. Things came to a head on Feb. 27, when a Syrian airstrike on a Turkish convoy killed at least 33 Turkish troops.
In response, the Turkish forces have used drones and artillery attacks to destroy hundreds of Syrian vehicles and equipment, shot down three Syrian planes, and reportedly killed some 3,000 Syrian troops.
A report in the Economist described it this way: Turkey punched back mostly with unmanned drones, an indigenous model called the Bayraktar that has also seen combat in Iraq and against Kurdish insurgents in eastern Turkey. They fly low and slow, without the range and payload of Americas hulking Reapers. But they pack enough power to wreck armoured units. Syrias air defences, never very formidable, were useless against swarms of drones orbiting overhead. When Syrian jets managed to shoot one down, a Turkish F-16 soon downed two of the Syrian craft the regimes worst single-day aerial losses since the war began.
BEST DEFENSE IS A GOOD OFFENSE: There is no defense against hypersonic. It goes five to 10 times the speed of sound. You're not going to defend against it.
That was the blunt assessment of Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley discussing the future of warfare in which maneuverable hypersonic missiles and glide vehicles will change todays concepts of missile defense.
You're not going to shoot the arrow. Those things are going so fast you're not going to get it. You got to shoot the archer, Milley said. You got to go deep downtown, and you got to get on the offense. If you want to defeat hypersonics, you got to go to the source, the launch pads.
During the Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, Defense Secretary Mark Esper insisted the U.S. is not giving up on hypersonic defenses. We are putting money into defensive systems, he testified. One of the early things that we know we need that money is going directly into is a is a low-earth orbit missile tracking system, if you will, that would be able to track hypersonic systems moving through the atmosphere.
Related: Washington Examiner: How Russia got hypersonic missiles before the US
A BILLION HERE, A BILLION THERE: A new Government Accountability Office report has found that the Pentagon has failed to collect reimbursement for thousands of instances in which the U.S. provided support to partners and allies, at a potential cost of $1 billion.
Orders remain unpaid in part because DOD has not requested timely repayment or monitored reimbursement, the report found. These management weaknesses limit DOD's ability to obtain reimbursement for overdue [acquisition and cross-servicing agreement] orders, which, according to DOD, were valued at more than $1 billion as of November 2019.
I've tried to track that number down. I can't find the billion-dollar number, Esper said when questioned by Rhode Island Democrat Sen. Jack Reed. Esper said the reimbursements were caught up at this time but said there are still approximately $38 million outstanding in flying costs.
I want to pull the thread a little bit more on that billion-dollar number to make sure I'm not missing something and that GAO report is helping.
WAR CRIMES INQUIRY: The American Civil Liberties Union has prevailed upon the International Criminal Court to open an investigation into alleged war crimes said to have been committed by U.S. military and intelligence forces in, or related to, the war in Afghanistan.
In a reversal of a previous ruling, the ICC also approved the scope of the investigation into CIA black sites in Poland, Lithuania, and Romania, the ACLU said in a release.
The ACLU represents three men, all of whom claim to have been tortured in Afghanistan.
BOLTON BOOK DELAYED: The lengthy White House review process of John Boltons book has bumped the publication date of The Room Where it Happened until May. The book was set to publish later this month on March 17, but the White House must first comb through the memoir to ensure that no confidential details are published.
Portions of Boltons book have already leaked to the press, including information about Trumps phone call with Ukrainian leaders that became the foundation for the House impeachment process. Bolton wrote that Trump had said Ukraines military aid was being put on hold until it announced an investigation into Joe and Hunter Biden.
EXERCISE CANCELED: Just days after it said a joint U.S.-Israel missile exercise would go on as scheduled, the U.S. European Command has announced the remaining portion of Exercise Juniper Cobra 20 has been canceled.
The decision is in alignment with recent Israeli Ministry of Health guidelines on COVID-19, and a precautionary measure to ensure the health and safety of all participants, said a statement from EUCOM this morning.
INDUSTRY WATCH:
Raytheon/Lockheed Martin Javelin Joint Venture: The State Department has approved the potential sale of 180 Javelin missiles and 79 Javelin Command Launch Units to Poland at an estimated cost of $100 million.
Boeing: The State Department has also approved the potential sale of up to eight KC-46 Pegasus refueling aircraft for an estimated cost of $2.4 billion.
A KEANE HONOR: Retired Four Star General Jack Keane will recieve [sic] the PRESIDENTIAL MEDAL OF FREEDOM next week! Trump tweeted. Trump, a notoriously bad speller, apparently forgot the old rule, I before E except after Keane.
Washington Examiner: House Armed Services chairman wants to 'claw back' Trump border wall money
Washington Examiner: How Russia got hypersonic missiles before the US
Washington Examiner: Chinese company accuses CIA of decadelong hacking campaign
Washington Examiner: 'F--- the peace deal': SEAL who shot Osama bin Laden celebrates US airstrike after Taliban pact breached
The Economist: Turkey hits back against Syria, risking escalation with Russia
AL-Monitor: Pentagon says Patriot sale to Turkey still on table
Air Force Magazine: Congress May Intervene to Speed KC-46 Fixes
Reuters: U.S. Defense linguist charged with transmitting classified intelligence
Air Force Magazine: F-35 Full-Rate Production May Slip Again
Bloomberg: Nearly All the F-35 Jet Engines Ordered Last Year Arrived Late
The Hill: Coronavirus fears have stopped F-35 lines in Japan, Italy, Pentagon says
Stars and Stripes: Two U.S. Military Dependents Test Positive For COVID-19 In South Korea
Washington Post: Iranian Leadership Hit Hard, And Hospitals Give Bleak Assessment Of Spread
National Defense Magazine: Elon Musk: U.S. Needs Star Trek's Starfleet to Compete Against China
Miliitary.com: Here are the 16 jobs that will be available to troops in Space Force
Forbers: Ten Ways A Democratic President Would Change The Trump Defense Posture
THURSDAY | MARCH 5
8 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd., Arl. Association of the U.S. Army Hot Topics Forum on "Army Space and AMD (Air and Missile Defense): Protection of the U.S. Homeland, Forces Abroad, Allies and Partners, with Army Lt. Gen. James Dickinson, deputy commander of the U.S. Space Command; and Navy Vice Adm. Jon Hill, director of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency. https://www.ausa.org/events/amd-hot-topic
9 a.m. 2359 Rayburn House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense hearing on Defense Health Program, with Army Surgeon General Lt. Gen. R. Scott Dingle; Navy Surgeon General Rear Adm. Bruce Gillingham; Air Force Surgeon General Lt. Gen. Dorothy Hogg, Thomas McCaffery, assistant secretary of defense for health affairs; Lt. Gen. Ronald Place, director, Defense Health Agency; and Bill Tinston, program executive officer, Defense Healthcare Management Systems. https://appropriations.house.gov/events/hearings
9:30 a.m. 2212 Rayburn House Armed Services Subcommittee on Tactical Air and Land Forces Hearing: The Fiscal Year 2021 Army and Marine Corps Ground Modernization Programs, with testimony from Bruce Jette, assistant secretary of the Army for acquisition, logistics, and technology; Gen. John Murray, commanding general, Army Futures Command; Lt. Gen. Eric Smith, commanding general, Marine Corps Combat Development Command; and James Geurts, assistant secretary of the Navy for research, development, and acquisition. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
3 p.m. 1030 15th St. N.W. Atlantic Council discussion with British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace on "The Next Era of UK Defense." https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
6 p.m. 600 New Jersey Ave. N.W. Georgetown University Law Center discussion: "America's Misadventure With Torture: New Revelations and Hard Lessons, with former U.N. Special Rapporteur on Torture Juan Mendez; Alka Pradhan, human rights counsel to Guantanamo Military Commissions; former Military Commissions Chief Investigator Mark Fallon; Susan Brandon, former research director of the High-Value Detainee Interrogation Group; Gregg Bloche, professor at Georgetown Law; David Luban, professor at Georgetown Law; and Steven Barela, senior fellow at the University of Geneva. https://www.law.georgetown.edu/news
TUESDAY | MARCH 10
10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn House Armed Services Committee hearing National Security Challenges and U.S. Military Activities in the Greater Middle East and Africa, with Kathryn Wheelbarger, assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs; Gen. Frank McKenzie, commander, U.S. Central Command; Gen. Stephen Townsend, commander, U.S. Africa Command. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
2 p.m. 2118 Rayburn House Armed Services Subcommittee on Tactical Air and Land Forces Hearing: Department of Defense Tactical and Rotary Aircraft Acquisition and Modernization Programs in the FY21 Presidents Budget Request, with Bruce Jette, assistant secretary of the Army for acquisition, logistics, and technology; Brig. Gen. Walter Rugen, director, future vertical lift cross-functional team, Army Futures Command; James Geurts, assistant secretary of the Navy for research, development, and acquisition; Lt. Gen. Steven Rudder, deputy Marine Corps Commandant for Aviation; Rear Adm. Greg Harris, director, air warfare office of the Chief of Naval Operations; William Roper, assistant secretary of the Air Force for acquisition, technology, and logistics; Gen. James Holmes, commander, Air Combat Command; Lt. Gen. David Nahom, Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Plans and Requirements. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
2:30 p.m. 2212 Rayburn House Armed Services Subcommittee on Military Personnel Hearing: Domestic Violence in the Military Services What is Being Done to Reduce the Scourge of these Abhorrent Crimes? with Dolores Geise, director, Soldier and Family Readiness, U.S. Army; Lolita Allen, Navy counseling, advocacy, and prevention program manager; Col. Patrick Pohle, chief, Air Force Family Advocacy Program; Lisa Eaffaldano, assistant branch head, Prevention and Clinical Services, U.S. Marines Corps. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
WEDNESDAY | MARCH 11
10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn House Armed Services Committee hearing: National Security Challenges and U.S. Military Activity in North and South America, with Kenneth Rapuano, assistant secretary of defense for homeland defense and global security; Adm. Craig Faller, commander, U.S. Southern Command; Gen. Terrence OShaughnessy, commander, U.S. Northern Command. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
2 p.m. 2118 Rayburn House Armed Services Subcommittee on Intelligence and Emerging Threats and Capabilities hearing: Reviewing Department of Defense Science and Technology Strategy, Policy, and Programs for Fiscal Year 2021: Maintaining a Robust Ecosystem for Our Technological Edge, with Michael Griffin, undersecretary of defense for research and engineering; Bruce Jette, assistant secretary of the Army for acquisition, logistics, and technology; James Geurts, assistant secretary of the Navy for research, development, and acquisition; William Roper, assistant secretary of the Air Force for acquisition, technology, and logistics. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
2:30 p.m. 2212 Rayburn House Armed Services Subcommittees on Seapower and Projection Forces and Readiness Joint Hearing: Sealift and Mobility Requirements in Support of the National Defense Strategy, with Gen. Steve Lyons, commander, U.S. Transportation Command; Mark Buzby, U.S. Maritime Administration; Vice Adm. Ricky Williamson, deputy chief of naval operations, Lt. Gen. David Nahom, Air Force deputy chief of staff for plans and programs. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
2:30 p.m. 106 Dirksen Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Personnel hearing on programs in the Department of Defense, with Matthew Donovan, performing the duties of the undersecretary of defense for personnel and readiness; Virginia Penrod, acting assistant secretary of defense for manpower & reserve affairs; Thomas McCaffery, assistant secretary of defense for health affairs; Thomas Constable, acting assistant secretary of defense for readiness; Elizabeth Van Winkle, executive director, office of force resiliency. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
THURSDAY | MARCH 12
9 a.m. 2118 Rayburn House Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness Hearing: FY21 Navy and Marine Corps Readiness Posture, with James Geurts, assistant secretary of the Navy, research, development, and acquisition; Adm. Robert Burke, Vice Chief of Naval Operations; Gen. Gary Thomas, Assistant Marine Corps Commandant. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
9:30 a.m. 2212 Rayburn House Armed Services Subcommittee Strategic Forces hearing: FY21 Priorities for Missile Defense and Missile Defeat Programs, with Gen. Terrence OShaughnessy, commander, U.S. Northern Command; Vice Adm. Jon Hill, director, Missile Defense Agency; Lt. Gen. Daniel Karbler, commanding general, U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command; Rob Soofer, deputy assistant secretary of defense for nuclear and missile defense policy; Cristina Chaplain, Director, contracting and national security acquisitions team, Government Accountability Office. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
FRIDAY | MARCH 13
8 a.m. 1135 16th St. N.W. American Bar Association Standing Committee on Law and National Security breakfast, with Special Inspector General John Sopko discussing Corruption: A Threat to Rule of Law and Sustainable Peace in Afghanistan. https://www.americanbar.org/news
There is no defense against hypersonic. It goes five to 10 times the speed of sound. You're not going to defend against it You're not going to shoot the arrow. Those things are going so fast you're not going to get it. You got to shoot the archer.
Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, testifying Wednesday on the challenge of defending against hypersonic weapons.
Continued here:
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