Qatar is home to the USs largest military base in the Middle East and a long-time US ally. Since its Gulf neighbors, led by Saudi Arabia, imposed a blockade two weeks ago, president Donald Trump has enthusiastically praised the blockade and attacked Qatarcontradicting the messages from his own Defense Department, State Department, and Senate Republicans. His ex-ambassador to Qatar, who abruptly stepped down last week, this week took to Twitter to cheer the State Department for chiding the Saudis.
That same day, Trump chastised Chinas attempts to rein in North Korea, tweeting that it had not worked out. That must have made for an uncomfortable meeting, just hours later, between top Chinese defense officials and diplomats and the US secretaries of State, Rex Tillerson, and Defense, James Mattis.
US foreign policy experts who spoke to Quartz, many of whom work or worked in the National Security Council, State Department, or Pentagon in the past, say theyve rarely seen such a wide-open divide between what a US president is saying and long-stated US government agenda, or between the president and his own top policy and security advisors. It looks like we have two governments at the moment, said Edward Goldberg, a professor at New York Universitys Center For Global Affairs, and author of The Joint Ventured Nation: Why America Needs A New Foreign Policy.
Aside from contradicting his own officials, Trump has made a habit of bypassing them. This week his son-in-law and senior adviser, Jared Kushner, and the Trump Organizations former legal counsel are in Israel for peace talks with Israeli and Palestinian authoritiescutting out the State Department and its decades of experience. Kushner will brief Trump, Tillerson, and national security advisor HR McMaster on his return, according to the White House. During Trumps last visit to the Middle East, Kushner sat in on a meeting with Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu, while McMaster was left outside, reportedly for hours.
White House officials seem to have given up trying to reconcile the conflicting approaches. Asked on Air Force One on June 21 how the presidents tweets affected Mattis and Tillersons meeting with Chinese officials, a spokeswoman had only this enigmatic response: The president is not going to project his strategy. And tweets speak for themselves. While Trump has focused on a few hot spots, the result is that the bureaucrats and generals are running much of US foreign policy.
Traditionally, the National Security Council (NSC) is supposed to serve as the presidents chief advisory body on foreign policy, funneling information from State, Defense, and intelligence agencies into a cohesive action plan. Some tensions are normal; in the Barack Obama administration, friction between the Oval Office, NSC, State, and Defense ran high over how to respond to ISIL and the Russian invasion of Crimea, among other topics.
But this time is different. Mattis, McMaster, and usually Tillerson are increasingly united around traditional US policy goals, as in Qatar. Trump, backed by a tiny group of personal confidantes with no foreign-policy experience, including Steve Bannon and Kusher, is disregarding them.
Not only are officials from these agencies openly contradicting the president; more quietly, some are recommending that his public statements be ignored. US foreign policy still works fine if the international community realizes they dont have to react to every Trump tweet, explained one defense department official, who asked not to be named.
The message to the rest of the world is that it is not a systematic policy development process, said Stephen Biddle, a defense policy expert at the Council of Foreign Relations and a former advisor to the US military in Iraq and Afghanistan. It is poorly managed, poorly coordinated, and is going to be a challenge for any US embassy to try to understand and explain. You cant take a garden variety statement from the president or the secretary of State as US policy, said Biddle.
In the worst case, this confusion could cause the US to bumble into a war. We might find ourselves in a major military conflict with Assad, Iran, or Russia, without knowing why, exactly, or what US interests are, said Ilan Goldenberg, a director of the Middle East Security Program at the Center for a New American Security, and a former State Department chief of staff.
Some military heads of command have already had a conversation about what to do if Trump gives an order they cant comply with, said a former National Security Agency analyst who still consults for the US government, citing direct conversations with military agency personnel. If it gets to a point beyond their comfort level, theyre well trained by the military not to disobey, said the defense official. Instead, expect the military leaders to just say Im out.
Kushners close relationship with Saudi prince Mohammad bin Salman, the 31-year old who has just been named successor to the aging King Salman, has shaped Trumps embrace of Saudi Arabia, analysts say. He has also helped moderate the presidents views on China. Because he has the presidents ear at any time, his influence has proven hard to counteract. Kushner has proven tough to work around, one lobbyist in DC with foreign clients said.
But Kushners foreign-policy inexperience is a risk for the situation now developing in the Middle East. Its much more dangerous than other previous spats, said Bruce Riedel, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. What the Saudi royal family is doing is arguing whether the ruling family of Qatar has legitimacy, he said. If the Saudis want to push it all the way to its logical end, this could become a very dangerous crisis in the Gulf.
Moreover, the special prosecutor investigating the Trump campaigns possible ties to Russian election hacking is now investigating Kushners business dealings. If he becomes a bigger focus of the probe his star, and his influence, is likely to fade.
One Washington, DC consultant to Middle East governments compares Trumps stance on Qatar to a car with no driver but only a set of brakesin the form of State, Defense, and the NSC. The brakes are all that is stopping the tensions around Qatar turning into an all-out war against a US ally.
One emerging outcome of this is that foreign policy in general is increasingly under the control of the military. Mattis has a tremendous amount of autonomy, billions of dollars of weaponry at his disposal, and political capital, said Goldenberg. He can make decisions and back them up with real action. In particular, Mattis has been given full responsibility for troop levels in Afghanistan, normally something the president decides.
Described as both deeply thoughtful and extremely aggressive, Mattis earned a fearsome reputation for leading Marine troops in the bloody 2004 attack on Fallujah, but said last year he thought the Iraq war was a strategic mistake. Since taking the Defense job, he has urged for the US to provide more military support for anti-Iranian forces (paywall) in Yemen, and has armed Syrian Kurdish fighters.
McMaster, himself a general with experience in the Middle East and Afghanistan, has ex-Army officials Derek Harvey and Joel Rayburn on his team, giving even more heft to the military point of view. In contrast, Tillerson, as a civilian voice on foreign policy, is hampered by running a department with large numbers of senior posts and ambassadorships still unfilled, while trying to defend its budget, which Trump has targeted for nearly 30% cuts.
Taken together, the team is smart and well-respected, said Goldenberg. But, sometimes things cant be figured out with a military solution, he said. Sometimes they are grayer and murkier and uglier than good guys and bad guys.
A White House spokesman, Michael Short said that questions about a disconnect between the presidents words and the State and Defense departments actions were nebulous claims. Trump and Tillerson, he said, have both stated publicly that there are steps that Qatar needs to take to address concerns about support for terrorists and extremists. Given the high stakes involved, the United States is disappointed that this dispute between our partners in the Gulf has not been resolved.
The State Department is still pointing to a diplomatic solution. The president and the secretary both want to see the Qatar dispute resolved quickly, one official said. Through the secretarys phone calls and meetings, he believes it can be resolved.
Follow this link:
Under Trump, US foreign policy is increasingly being left to the generals - Quartz
- Top Biden allies say he's still the best bet to win against Trump in November - NBC News - July 1st, 2024 [July 1st, 2024]
- Most voters want Biden to step down, but dont agree on suitable alternative poll - The Guardian US - July 1st, 2024 [July 1st, 2024]
- Trump is a liar, but Biden debate disaster failed to reassure America - MSNBC - July 1st, 2024 [July 1st, 2024]
- Trump or Biden: Who's the better golfer? - Salt Lake Tribune - July 1st, 2024 [July 1st, 2024]
- Presidential debate: An unfortunate reality check about the night's weirdest Trump-Biden exchange. - Slate - July 1st, 2024 [July 1st, 2024]
- I knocked Biden out of the race in 87. Almost four decades later, he needs to quit again - Sydney Morning Herald - July 1st, 2024 [July 1st, 2024]
- Fact checks were prevalent during and after the Biden-Trump debate but not for real-time viewers - The Associated Press - July 1st, 2024 [July 1st, 2024]
- Letters: Between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, here's who actually paid attention during the debate - Chicago Tribune - July 1st, 2024 [July 1st, 2024]
- Biden campaign raises more than $33M since debate with Trump - The Hill - July 1st, 2024 [July 1st, 2024]
- Here's a look at some of the false claims made during Biden and Trump's first debate - The Associated Press - July 1st, 2024 [July 1st, 2024]
- Despair in the air: For many voters, the Biden-Trump debate means a tough choice just got tougher - The Associated Press - July 1st, 2024 [July 1st, 2024]
- Tim Scott has benefited from mentors along the way. He's hoping for another helping hand - The Associated Press - July 1st, 2024 [July 1st, 2024]
- Most of the world prefers Biden but is preparing for Trump - The Hill - July 1st, 2024 [July 1st, 2024]
- At Trumps Post-Debate Rally, Unease Among the Faithful - The New York Times - July 1st, 2024 [July 1st, 2024]
- US Supreme Court's slow pace on immunity makes Trump trial before election unlikely - Reuters - July 1st, 2024 [July 1st, 2024]
- Memo Reveals Trump's Plan to Slash the Size of the G.O.P. Platform - The New York Times - July 1st, 2024 [July 1st, 2024]
- Debate-watchers in the Biden and Trump camps seem to agree on something: Biden had a bad night - The Associated Press - July 1st, 2024 [July 1st, 2024]
- Opinion | Hillary Clinton: I've Debated Trump and Biden. Here's What I'm Watching For. - The New York Times - July 1st, 2024 [July 1st, 2024]
- The Supreme Court nears the end of another momentous term. A decision on Trump's immunity looms - The Associated Press - July 1st, 2024 [July 1st, 2024]
- Trump mocks Biden over debate performance, but says it's not "his age" that's the problem - CBS News - July 1st, 2024 [July 1st, 2024]
- Opinion | Joe Biden Is a Good Man and a Good President. He Must Bow Out of the Race. - The New York Times - July 1st, 2024 [July 1st, 2024]
- Americas big problem is not Biden, its the menace to democracy posed by Trump - The Guardian - July 1st, 2024 [July 1st, 2024]
- Biden reportedly won't quit the race, while Trump awaits Supreme Court immunity ruling - NewsNation Now - July 1st, 2024 [July 1st, 2024]
- The Supreme Court and Donald Trump - MSNBC - July 1st, 2024 [July 1st, 2024]
- Biden assures campaign donors he can still win election - BBC.com - July 1st, 2024 [July 1st, 2024]
- Chuck Todd: Does Trump or Biden have more to lose in the first presidential debate? - NBC News - July 1st, 2024 [July 1st, 2024]
- Biden vows to fight on and beat Trump after shaky debate - BBC.com - July 1st, 2024 [July 1st, 2024]
- Election 2024 post-debate: The road ahead for Biden and Trump - CBS News - July 1st, 2024 [July 1st, 2024]
- In Post-Debate Poll, Voters Think Biden Is Too Old to Be President Yet Alternative Candidates Perform Similarly ... - Data For Progress - July 1st, 2024 [July 1st, 2024]
- How Trump Shockingly Thrived With the New Debate Rules - POLITICO - July 1st, 2024 [July 1st, 2024]
- Donald Trump Returns to Capitol Hill for First Time Since Jan. 6 Riot - The Wall Street Journal - June 13th, 2024 [June 13th, 2024]
- Opinion: Donald Trump's advice on drinking and drugs is 'Don't start.' So what's wrong with that? - Yahoo! Voices - June 13th, 2024 [June 13th, 2024]
- Jeffrey Katzenberg Is Bidens Secret Weapon Against Trump - The New York Times - June 13th, 2024 [June 13th, 2024]
- Behind Closed Doors, Trump Disparages Milwaukee, Host of His Party's Convention - The New York Times - June 13th, 2024 [June 13th, 2024]
- Trump's Campaign Was Just a Scammy Money Grab All Along - The New Republic - June 13th, 2024 [June 13th, 2024]
- Opinion | The American flag isnt another Trump property. Time to reclaim it. - The Washington Post - June 13th, 2024 [June 13th, 2024]
- Republicans host 'pep rally' with Trump in his first visit to Capitol Hill since Jan. 6 attack - NBC News - June 13th, 2024 [June 13th, 2024]
- Trump met with GOP lawmakers in Washington to rally support, push for unity - NPR - June 13th, 2024 [June 13th, 2024]
- A second Trump term: from unthinkable to probable - The Economist - June 13th, 2024 [June 13th, 2024]
- Donald Trump on Capitol Hill for first time since Jan 6 riot - BBC.com - June 13th, 2024 [June 13th, 2024]
- Elections 2024 live updates: Trump touts 'tremendous unity' after GOP meetings on Hill - The Washington Post - June 13th, 2024 [June 13th, 2024]
- Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? - FiveThirtyEight - June 13th, 2024 [June 13th, 2024]
- Trump slams Justice Department in meeting with congressional Republicans - The Washington Post - June 13th, 2024 [June 13th, 2024]
- Bitcoin miners at Donald Trump's closed-door event say he thinks bitcoin can help win AI arms race - CNBC - June 13th, 2024 [June 13th, 2024]
- The problem with Donald Trump's advice on drugs and alcohol - Los Angeles Times - June 13th, 2024 [June 13th, 2024]
- Trump Returns to Washington With Renewed Grip on the G.O.P. - The New York Times - June 13th, 2024 [June 13th, 2024]
- Opinion | J.D. Vance on Where Hed Take the Republican Party - The New York Times - June 13th, 2024 [June 13th, 2024]
- How Donald Trump's criminal conviction boosted his campaign fundraising machine - CNBC - June 13th, 2024 [June 13th, 2024]
- Donald Trump's Message to Milwaukee - The Atlantic - June 13th, 2024 [June 13th, 2024]
- Donald Trump Reportedly Questions Taylor Swifts Support for Joe Biden in Meeting With House Republicans: Why Would She Endorse This Dope? - Variety - June 13th, 2024 [June 13th, 2024]
- How One Move Illustrates Trump's Tactics - The New York Times - June 13th, 2024 [June 13th, 2024]
- Donald Trump Pulls Off Shock Lead in State GOP Has Not Won in 36 Years - Newsweek - June 13th, 2024 [June 13th, 2024]
- Donald Trump's 'Unhinged' Email Has Critics Asking: 'Is He Out Of Control?' - Yahoo! Voices - June 13th, 2024 [June 13th, 2024]
- JB Pritzker, the Democrat Who Isnt Afraid to Call Trump a Felon - The New York Times - June 13th, 2024 [June 13th, 2024]
- Opinion | In calling out Trump, Harris finds her mission - The Washington Post - June 13th, 2024 [June 13th, 2024]
- A Brief History of the Phrase 'No One Is Above the Law' - The New York Times - June 13th, 2024 [June 13th, 2024]
- Donald Trump Jr. moves to be MAGA's new kingmaker - Axios - June 13th, 2024 [June 13th, 2024]
- Opinion | Media should stop calling Donald Trump a 'felon' - The Washington Post - The Washington Post - June 6th, 2024 [June 6th, 2024]
- Donald Trump tries to court pivotal 2024 voters after guilty verdict - USA TODAY - June 6th, 2024 [June 6th, 2024]
- Opinion | Trump has been convicted, but maybe hold the champagne - The Washington Post - June 6th, 2024 [June 6th, 2024]
- Democratic, GOP strategists on problems Biden and Trump face with undecided voters - PBS NewsHour - June 6th, 2024 [June 6th, 2024]
- Trump's New York gun permit to be revoked following conviction: Sources - ABC News - June 6th, 2024 [June 6th, 2024]
- Trump asks to have gag order lifted in New York criminal trial - CBS News - June 6th, 2024 [June 6th, 2024]
- Donald Trump Is Plotting His Next Crime - Democracy Docket - June 6th, 2024 [June 6th, 2024]
- Trump Gets a Fund-Raiser in Silicon Valley - The New York Times - June 6th, 2024 [June 6th, 2024]
- Donald Trump: Unless there is a death penalty for drug dealers, you will never solve the problem - Fox News - June 6th, 2024 [June 6th, 2024]
- DNC to unveil new billboard calling Trump a "convicted felon" - CBS News - June 6th, 2024 [June 6th, 2024]
- Trump's Vows to Prosecute Rivals Put Rule of Law on the Ballot - The New York Times - June 6th, 2024 [June 6th, 2024]
- Will the Supreme Court nullify Trump's conviction? - Vox.com - June 6th, 2024 [June 6th, 2024]
- What's next for Donald Trump after hush money conviction - The Associated Press - June 6th, 2024 [June 6th, 2024]
- Is Donald Trump Really a Male Icon? I Hope to God Not. - The Nation - June 6th, 2024 [June 6th, 2024]
- Opinion | Trump Is Blocking Out the Sun: Three Writers on the Politics of the Guilty Verdict - The New York Times - June 6th, 2024 [June 6th, 2024]
- Looming over Trump's conviction: reversal by the '13th juror' - POLITICO - June 6th, 2024 [June 6th, 2024]
- Both Sides of a Breakup: He Didn't Think Trump Was So Bad - The Cut - June 6th, 2024 [June 6th, 2024]
- Trump asks judge to lift gag order in hush money case after guilty verdict - Axios - June 6th, 2024 [June 6th, 2024]
- Court Delays Trump's Georgia Case, and U.N. Warns of 'Climate Hell' - The New York Times - June 6th, 2024 [June 6th, 2024]
- Republican Election Clerk Takes on Trump and His Supporters - The New York Times - June 6th, 2024 [June 6th, 2024]
- Trump surrogate Byron Donalds hearkens back to Jim Crow era when 'the Black family was together' - NBC News - June 6th, 2024 [June 6th, 2024]
- Donald Trump to speak at private CEOs meeting, weeks after conviction - CNBC - June 6th, 2024 [June 6th, 2024]
- Trump's conviction prompts election-year debate among Democrats: How much to focus on the verdict? - The Associated Press - June 6th, 2024 [June 6th, 2024]