Trumps Syria and Ukraine Moves Further Alienate Americas Already Wary Allies – The New York Times

BRUSSELS European leaders have long understood that President Trump is an unreliable ally, subject to loud tantrums, abrupt shifts and sudden whims. They have worried about his ambivalence toward NATO, resented his personal attacks and bristled at his use of trade policy and economic sanctions to restrict their companies and markets.

Until now, Europeans have done little except complain about him. But Mr. Trumps recent actions in Syria and Ukraine may change that.

The more optimistic now argue Mr. Trumps betrayals in those conflicts are of a different category of seriousness, and may accelerate what has been a slowly building process of European integration and peeling away from the United States. Others are not so sure.

But there is agreement that Mr. Trump has destabilized Europes near neighborhood in a major, even fundamental, way that requires a unified response, if only Europeans can come together.

Mr. Trump this month pulled American troops out of Syria, forsaking the Kurds who were guarding European jihadists, and allowing Turkey to invade. Mr. Trumps impeachment inquiry has laid bare how through the course of the year he prized politics over policy in Ukraine.

Both episodes benefited President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, who has been working to destabilize European democracies, chip away at Western cohesion, and on Tuesday hosted his new friend, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, a NATO member.

As European leaders prepare for a meeting of NATO members in London in early December, Mr. Trumps capriciousness is testing Europes ability to cohere and adjust.

Europeans have put themselves in the position of being dependent on an undependable president, said Robin Niblett, director of Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London.

This just exposes again how Europeans remain overly reliant on the United States, he said, not only to deter Russia but to protect Western interests in the Middle East. But will Europeans do anything about it?

Mr. Trumps sudden withdrawal of American troops from northern Syria, and the quick response of Mr. Putin, have shaken Europeans. How deeply is the question.

This has been more grist to the mill for the need for European governments to take more responsibility for their near neighborhood," Mr. Niblett said. But that doesnt mean it will get done.

The European Parliament is preparing a resolution condemning Turkeys offensive and urging economic sanctions, but governments are split on the matter.

While to some degree Americas allies have priced in Mr. Trumps limitations and behavior, this is a whole different level," said Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, playing into all their fears about America as an unreliable ally.

So unreliable has Mr. Trump proved, in fact, that his allies would not dare call the December meeting a summit, NATO officials concede. It will incorporate only a reception at Buckingham Palace and a single morning session at a golf resort hotel an hours drive from central London.

The main reason for that, officials say, is because of Mr. Trumps tantrum about military spending that so distorted the last NATO summit meeting in Brussels in July 2018.

There, Mr. Trump was finally calmed down when the Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, told him, We get it, Donald, we need to buy more American arms. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, told him: We understand, we need to spend more so you can spend less.

Such remarks are revealing of Europes deepening disdain for Mr. Trump, even before his meddling in Syria and Ukraine.

European governments have a very low regard for Trump anyway," said Charles Grant, director of the Center for European Reform. They know that they need to work with the United States, but it confirms to them that Trump is incapable of thinking strategically, handing victory to the Russians in Syria.

Mr. Trumps move in Syria was particularly neuralgic for the French. They have been vocally furious with American unreliability ever since 2013, when President Barack Obama decided to ignore his own red line and call off bombing strikes on Syria in response to the regimes use of chemical weapons a decision passed on to Paris just as French war planes were preparing to join the United States in the strikes.

France felt abandoned then, especially after becoming more aligned with Washington under Presidents Nicolas Sarkozy and Franois Hollande and rejoining NATOs command structure.

But this is a whole new level of frivolousness in the way that the U.S. treats allies, Mr. Leonard said.

Mr. Macron was particularly bitter last week about Mr. Trumps unilateral Syria move, in a news conference after a Brussels summit meeting.

I understood that we were together in NATO, that the U.S. and Turkey were in NATO, Mr. Macron said. And I found out via a tweet that the U.S. had decided to withdraw their troops."

Asked about the seeming impotence of the European Union, he added, I share your outrage.

But such decisions also help those in Europe, like Mr. Macron, who are trying to make the case for more European strategic autonomy, both in defense matters but also increasingly in financial ones, as Europeans try to protect their firms from both American tariffs and secondary sanctions against Iran.

Mr. Macron is pressing for more spending on European defense, especially on French armaments, as a way for Europe to counterbalance a long-term trend of American retreat from multilateral obligations.

But whereas the European Union has mostly joined together in a common regulatory system on matters of trade and finance, it often remains a bloc of 28 foreign policies.

Europe is split, Mr. Leonard said. There are those deeply worried about what is going on and wanting to build a Europe that can defend itself, not just in defense but to push back on the extraterritoriality of American sanctions and Trumps weaponization of the international financial system. And there are those who think they have to suck up to Trump bilaterally, like the Poles, who only trust the Americans to deter Russia.

And then there are those like Germany that will follow Macron to a degree rhetorically, but when it comes down to difficult decisions about how much to spend on defense, how assertive to be on sanctions, holds back," he said.

But the more Mr. Trump and Congress go after European national interest and leaders, threatening a trade war with Europe and insulting its leadership, the more countries are driven into the French camp.

There are more structural developments that have shaken the way that Europeans view the United States, said Manuel Muniz, dean of the School of Global and Public Affairs at IE University in Madrid.

He cited Mr. Trumps questioning of NATO and collective defense; his abandonment of the Paris climate accord and the Iran nuclear deal; his imposition of trade sanctions on European products like steel and aluminum; his harsh attacks on individual European leaders at various times, including Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany and former Prime Minister Theresa May of Britain; and the behavior of some of his ambassadors toward their host countries and institutions.

Mr. Trumps criticism of European free-riding on defense is accurate, Mr. Muniz said, but it has also led to Europeans ceding responsibility for their own interests and fates.

But given his unreliability as an ally, Trump will accelerate the process of European integration on defense and security, he said.

In fact, in many corners of the world, Americas transformation from the indispensable ally to the unreliable one is now taken for granted.

Americas unreliability as both a global leader and ally or partner is no longer in doubt and countries are adjusting accordingly, and not just in Europe, according to Shlomo Ben-Ami, a former Israeli foreign minister and now vice president of the Toledo International Center for Peace.

The Kurds and Turks quickly scrambled to make a deal with Russia, and India is also pursuing closer ties to both China and Russia. The South Koreans are seeking a form of rapprochement with the North and even Saudi Arabia is looking for better ties with Iran, he wrote in an op-ed article for Project Syndicate.

The main problem is not just what Trump does, but how he does it, Mr. Leonard said. It is not just Mr. Trumps America First nationalism, he said. Alliances need predictability, and Trump is so unpredictable.

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Trumps Syria and Ukraine Moves Further Alienate Americas Already Wary Allies - The New York Times