The truth about Donald Trump voters and violence in politics | TheHill – The Hill

With security heightened in Washington and capitals around the country, the possibility of political violence weighs on many peoples minds. Underpinning the question of possible violence is an even broader question: Will Donald TrumpDonald Trump'QAnon Shaman' willing to testify in impeachment trial, lawyer says Boebert clashes with Parkland survivor on Twitter: 'Give your keyboard a rest, child' Overnight Defense: FEMA asks Pentagon to help with vaccinations |US says Taliban has 'not met their commitments' |Army investigating Fort Hood chaplain MORE voters accept Joe Biden as the president?

These are important questions, as false claims about voter fraud began months ago from the political right and increased after election day. A few memorable examples include false claims that voting machines had switched votes to Biden, that large numbers of Trump ballots were destroyed, and that Republic election officials were unfairly restricted from observing polling stations. Despite these claims, no evidence was found for systemic election fraud and all legal challenges have been rejected by the courts.

Thus, these claims are false and constitute misinformation. In a recent study, we investigated the extent to which voters believe these false claims about election fraud - and whether they support political violence. We conducted a survey on Nov. 10, three days after the election was called in favor of Biden. We surveyed 617 Trump voters and 1,036 Biden voters, ensuring that participants were in proportion to the national distribution on age, gender, ethnicity, and region.

We asked questions to determine the extent that voters believe in the false claims of voter fraud and the election outcome as well as the possible consequences of these beliefs. What would lead Trump voters to accept Biden as the president? And -- most concerning given the recent events at the national Capitol building what would they do if Biden is inaugurated and Trump does not concede?

We found that false beliefs about election fraud and a Trump victory were widespread among Trump voters. More than 77 percent of Trump voters believe that fraud is common in U.S. elections despite no evidence to support this claim and more than 65 percent believe that Trump won the 2020 election. Only 22 percent of Trump voters believed Bidens win to be legitimate at the time of the survey.

However, another 21 percent said they would view Biden as the legitimate president if Trump lost his court challenges and/or conceded the election. Another 6 percent would be convinced by Trump losing his legal challenges but not by him conceding, and another 11 percent would be convinced by Trump conceding but not by him losing his legal challenges. But 40 percent of Trump voters said they would continue to view Biden as illegitimate regardless.

As for political unrest, very few voters on either side expressed high levels of political spite or support of violence. The majority of Trump voters, 88 percent, said they would not protest Bidens inauguration. Hopefully, this means that mass violence among Trump supporters is unlikely. However, it only takes a few individuals with a willingness to engage in violence to have a large negative impact.

We also took a look at what characteristics correlate with holding false beliefs about the election and voter fraud among voters. What is it that makes someone more likely to believe in false claims? We found that Trump voters with more knowledge of basic facts about American politics and more engagement with election news were more likely to hold false beliefs. However, it is important to note that knowledge and engagement with election news is quite different from cognitive reflection, which is a measure of the ability and disposition to think analytically. People with higher analytical thinking skills were associated with a reduced belief that Trump won among Trump and Biden voters.

Our survey is a mixture of good and bad news. The bad news is that 40 percent of Trump voters say they will continue to view Biden as illegitimate. With numbers that high, it is difficult to see how the political divisiveness in our country will improve any time soon. However, the good news is that the majority of voters support a peaceful transition of power and do not support violence.

David Rand is the Erwin Schell professor and a professor for management science and cognitive science for the Sloan School of Management at the Massachusetts Institute for Technology. Gordon Pennycook is a professor for behavioral science with Hill School of Business at University of Regina.

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The truth about Donald Trump voters and violence in politics | TheHill - The Hill