Poll shows Donald Trump ahead in Ohio, competitive in three other Great Lakes states as coronavirus pandemic – cleveland.com

CLEVELAND, Ohio A new poll shows Republican President Donald Trump leading in Ohio and competitive in three other key Great Lakes states as voters generally approve of his response to coronavirus and the ensuing economic upheaval.

Trump led both Democratic presidential candidates, former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, in Ohio. Trump led Biden in Pennsylvania and trailed in Michigan, with the race in Wisconsin a dead heat. The president performed better against Sanders, leading in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, though trailing in Michigan.

A majority of respondents in all four states said they approved of Trumps response to coronavirus and the economy, though they were worried about their current financial situation.

Researchers at Baldwin Wallace University, Ohio Northern University and Oakland University near Detroit polled 3,817 registered voters in Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin from Friday through Wednesday for the second of their planned four Great Lakes polls this year. The margins of error range from plus-or-minus 3.3 percentage points in Ohio to plus-or-minus 3.9 percentage points in Pennsylvania. The results are weighted by gender, race and ethnicity, education and annual household income to the 2016 electorate.

The poll results are generally good news for the president, who has been able to maintain support as the virus continues to spread and the stock market which he frequently brags about reaching record highs under his leadership craters.

An added political bonus for the president is the stoppage of in-person campaigning across the country. With the nation gripped by coverage of coronavirus, his Democratic challengers have little chances for earned media and a chance to criticize Trump on a wide scale as Washington works through the response, though Trump is also deprived of his favorite campaign tool large rallies.

Lauren Copeland, associate director of of Baldwin Wallaces Community Research Institute, said Trumps support could be tenuous, however, if the economy continues its skid.

Theres an intriguing finding where Trumps numbers are up, but people are worried about he economy and personal finances in particular, Copeland said. If the economy continues its downward spiral, I dont know if Trumps support will hold up.

Trump vs. Biden

Seth A. Richardson

A hypothetical matchup of Trump versus Biden produced races within the margin of error in all four states.

Trump led Biden in Ohio and Pennsylvania, but trailed him in Michigan. The poll results indicated a dead heat between Trump and Biden in Wisconsin.

The results in the four states for Trump against Biden were:

Trump vs. Sanders

Seth A. Richardson

Trump led Sanders in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, though trailed the senator in Michigan. All four races were within the margin of error, according to the poll.

The results in the four states for Trump against Sanders were:

Coronavirus response

The likely key factor in Trump remaining strong with voters despite significant upheaval to their lives and the economy is their current approval of his response to the coronavirus pandemic. More than 50% of voters in all four states said they approved of the presidents response to the outbreak. A roughly similar portion of voters said they approved of Trumps handling of the economy.

Robert Alexander, founding director of Ohio Northern Universitys Institute for Civics and Public Policy, said the wartime atmosphere against coronavirus was likely giving Trump a boost in the electoral matchups.

Like most crises, the president is likely to see a rally around the flag effect with a surge of support from the electorate, Alexander said. We find this to be the case with Trump, which may be inflating his numbers a bit. As concerns over COVID-19 persist and economic conditions worsen, it is likely Trumps approval numbers will wane. We are a long way from November, so we should be cautious about over interpreting results right nowespecially given the unprecedented circumstances we are currently experiencing.

Biden and Sanders received tepid responses from voters in comparison. Only around 30% of voters in each state said they thought Biden or Sanders would do a better job than Trump, with a similar amount saying they would do worse.

Soft Democratic enthusiasm

Trump had firmer support among respondents than either Biden or Sanders in all four of the states, with more voters saying they would definitely support the president than those who would definitely support either of the Democrats.

However, more respondents in every state said they were almost certain to vote against Donald Trump than for him.

Seth A. Richardson

That may indicate that voters want to vote against Trump, but dont like either Biden or Sanders as the nominee.

When asked if they would vote for Trump or the Democratic nominee, without either Bidens or Sanders name mentioned, Trump led in Ohio and trailed in Michigan and Wisconsin. The race was tied in Pennsylvania.

The Great Lakes Poll from January showed Trump trailing a generic Democrat in all four states.

Favorability

None of the candidates had a net-positive approval rating, save for Biden in Michigan. Trumps worst favorability rating was in Michigan, where only 41% of voters approved of Trump compared with 52% who held an unfavorable view of the president.

In Ohio, voters were split on their view of Trump, with 47% holding a favorable view of him and 47% holding an unfavorable view of him.

Seth A. Richardson

Ohio voters were more critical of Biden and Sanders. Biden had a net-unfavorable rating, with a 41% favorable to 44% unfavorable. Biden had net-unfavorable ratings in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, though voters in Michigan held slightly more favorable views of the former vice president.

Seth A. Richardson

Voters in the poll did not like Sanders, who held a net-unfavorable rating in all four states, and at more than 10% in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Michigan respondents were much kinder to Sanders, with only 42% holding an unfavorable view to 39% who held an favorable view.

Seth A. Richardson

Read full coverage of the Great Lakes Poll here.

Read more:

Poll shows Donald Trump ahead in Ohio, competitive in three other Great Lakes states as coronavirus pandemic - cleveland.com