How is Donald Trump able to maintain control of Republican party? – The Columbus Dispatch

"If you believe the other side is corrupt, immoral, and dishonest, it takes someone like (Donald) Trump to stand up to them," Robert Alexander

Robert Alexander| Guest Columnist

Robert Alexanderis the founding director of the Ohio Northern Institute for Civics and Public Policy. He is a political science professor at Ohio Northern University.

The rally around the flag effect is a well-documented phenomenon where a presidents public approval rating climbs in times of crisis.

In spite of countless controversies, including two impeachments, the January 6 riot, and more recently being the first president to have criminal charges filed against him, Donald Trump has managed to engender his own rally around the Trump effect among Republican voters.

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A modern day Rasputin, no matter how many times he looks to be politically dead, he is able to maintain his position as the leader of the Republican party. This is true not only in spite of his controversies, but also in spite of poor electoral performances among Republicans nationally since his 2016 victory.

This has led many to question why Republicans continue to stand with him. The answers lie in part with him and in part with broader trends in American politics.

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It is no secret that we live in polarized times.

Yet, the extent to which this polarization affects how we view others might come as a surprise . Majorities of both Democrats and Republicans view the opposing party as being close-minded, dishonest, immoral, and unintelligent. These numbers have only grown since 2016. It is quite a challenge to unite Americans when 72% of Republicans see Democrats as immoral and 63% of Democrats see Republicans as immoral. Similar findings occur among young voters too.

One poll finds that nearly half of college students would not want a roommate who voted for a different candidate and 53% say they probably would not go on a date with someone who voted for a different candidate. This tracks with another poll finding that 4 in 10 parents say they would be disappointed if their child married someone of the opposing political party.

These sentiments fuel an apocalyptic us versus them mentality where any loss on our side, is a win for their side. This is explained through the concept of negative partisanship where dislike of the other party is more likely to drive support than your attachment to your own party.

This phenomenon is tied closely to various psychological biases we hold such as in-group bias, self-serving bias and confirmation bias.

For instance, confirmation bias occurs when individuals selectively choose what evidence they pay attention to based upon preexisting beliefs they hold. If new information supports their worldview, they hold on to it. If it challenges their worldview, they discard it. This, of course, does not lead to accurate assessments of the world around them.

When it comes to the political parties, both Democrats and Republicans are reluctant to give the other party credit and refuse to accept blame when it is likely warranted.

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There is little Donald Trump could do that would make Democrats happy and we have seen that regardless of his behaviors, there is little Trump can do to lose support among Republicans.

To see how much an increase in polarization has affected the landscape today, it is worth examining Bill Clintons impeachment nearly 25 years ago. In that crisis, Clinton saw his public approval rating increase from 58% in November of 1997 to 71% after Articles of Impeachment were introduced to 62% after the Articles were rejected by the Senate in the Spring of 1999. Much of his bounce was not due to an increase in support among Democrats, but a surge in support among Independents and Republicanssomething that would be unthinkable today.

Donald Trumps approval rating has remained remarkably consistent over the years. There has been little he has done that has brought him support among Democrats or Independents. Yet, among Republicans, every time he has faced a crisis, polls show the party rallying around him. This is true since his indictment and Republican rivals have not been able to capitalize on it to make any significant inroads to challenge him for the 2024 nomination.

And yet, dedicated Republican support for Trump has not translated into great electoral success for the party.

Since his surprise victory in 2016, Republicans had an historic midterm loss in 2018 (losing 41 seats in the House), they lost the presidency and Senate in 2020, and fully underperformed in the 2022 midterm elections with Democrats gaining a Senate seat.

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Still, thanks to negative partisanship and psychological biases, Trumps supporters see him as being attacked unfairly, that the system is corrupt, or putting their energy into the misdeeds of their opponents. Many of them recognize Trumps foibles, acknowledging that he can be vicious and engage in morally questionable behavior. But they also believe that the other side is doing it too.

For partisans, Trump is their guy who will do whatever it takes to win. If you believe the other side is corrupt, immoral, and dishonest, it takes someone like Trump to stand up to them. And for that reason, they are willing to tolerate many of his antics.

Robert Alexanderis the founding director of the Ohio Northern Institute for Civics and Public Policy. He is a political science professor at Ohio Northern University.

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How is Donald Trump able to maintain control of Republican party? - The Columbus Dispatch