Proclaiming whats going to happen is a popular way to shrug off taking responsibility for helping to determine whats going to happen. And its something weve seen a lot with doomspreading prophecies that Donald Trump is going to run for president or even win in 2024.
One of the assumptions is that Trump will still be alive and competent to run, but the health of this sedentary shouter in his mid-70s, including the after-effects of the Covid-19 he was hospitalised for in 2020, could change.
Look to external issues too, for whatever the condition of his own health, his financial health is under attack, with businesses losing money and some banks refusing to lend to him after the storming of the Capitol.
Its also worth remembering that he lost the popular vote by millions in 2016 and by more millions in 2020; he never had a mandate. The Republicans are clearly gearing up to try to steal an election again, but their chances of winning one with Trump as candidate seem slim. Currently, he is creating conflict within the Republican party with his insistence on controlling it for his own agenda and punishing dissenters.
Another assumption we make when we assess Trumps prospects is that he wont be locked up in 2024, or that his reputation, such as it is, wont be severely damaged even in the eyes of some who voted for him before. Even in the past couple of weeks his standing has shifted significantly. Former attorney general Bill Barr is now speaking up to promote his book about how Trump was clearly advised that his claims of election theft had no basis and that his strategies to overturn the results were illegal. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has woken up people around the world (or at least those who were dozing) to Vladimir Putins malevolence and reminded Americans of how eagerly Trump allied himself with the Russian dictator, personally and politically. Suddenly a lot of Republicans are trying to scurry away from their own pro-Putin record, which may mean distancing themselves from Trump as well. His 2019 withholding of military aid to Ukraine to try to pressure Ukrainian president Zelenskiy into supporting his lies is also being re-examined under the harsh light of this war.
Additionally, Trump is facing many criminal charges, from allegations of financial dirty dealing by the Trump Organization in New York (Trump has called the various probes into the business politically motivated), to an investigation into whether Trump and his allies subverted election results in Georgia, where Trump claims election fraud took place. Just last week, the January 6 committee laid out a series of potential charges against the ex-president, including conspiracy to defraud the American people and obstructing an official proceeding of Congress. Trumps domestic status seems to be shifting rapidly. He is also facing so many lawsuits that both CNN and NBC published indexes of the cases. Last month news broke that Trump had left the White House with classified documents, which he claimed he had a right to take to his home. That could be a felony, though how much appetite the Biden administration has for jailing a former president remains to be seen.
Among the large array of civil charges Trump faces are E Jean Carrolls allegations of defamation over his insult-laden denial that he raped her (he has responded that he was simply responding in the line of official duties) and former consigliere Michael Cohens case that his return to prison was triggered by Trump after Cohen released a revealing memoir. There are also suits holding Trump responsible for the January 6 insurrection both from members of Congress, and two policemen injured in the mayhem. In February the courts ruled that these civil suits can go forward, and Trump lacks the immunity that would protect him from them. Trump has initiated lawsuits of his own, but a great many have been dismissed, although he is still suing his niece, Mary Trump, for disclosing tax information about him. She in turn is suing him and two of his siblings, alleging that they defrauded her out of much of her inheritance (which they deny).
Though the 14th amendment of the US constitution should ban all insurrectionists from running for elected office, it seems unlikely to be applied to 21st-century candidates the way it was to former Confederates. But still, the Georgia and New York charges are serious. All of which is to say that the road from early 2022 to late 2024 is bumpy for Trump. Popular opinion is fickle; George W Bush is Trumps age and clearly a permanent has-been. Even Barack Obama, at 60, has strolled offstage.
But even if Trump is not indisputably in the running, Trumpism is running rampant, and its a force to contend with in political races across the US. Trump was a super-spreader of his brand of amoral self-interest that tramples fact, truth, law and rights. The man himself is sulking in his private club in Florida enduring effectual exile from New York, Washington and Twitter but to a degree, his work is done. He has got an already corrupt political party to embrace his tactics and values. The brazen lies of prominent figures in the party show that theyve abandoned all ethics and standards, and will happily violate the oaths they took to uphold the constitution. Viral Trumpism has already merged with conspiracy theories such as QAnon, with anti-vaccine cults, with white supremacists and neo-fascists, and with the gun-fetishising groups that continue to have an ominous presence in public life.
I sometimes think of the American right as a pot on the boil; whats inside is concentrating as it shrinks. The Republican party has been losing membership for years: a Gallup poll earlier this month reports that 24% of eligible voters are registered Republican, a steady decline over the past 15 years.Thats a reminder that news stories revealing that a majority of Republicans believe something could actually mean that only a small minority of Americans do.
There have been high-profile defections and general atrophy in the age of Trump. Thats the shrinking. But then theres the concentration that renders those who remain more furious, more closed-minded, more ready to jump on any bandwagon that looks as if it leads to power, and even more rigidly committed to an increasingly rightwing agenda, even though or maybe because that means minority rule.
For progressives, Republican desperation is a good sign, in its way. A popular party doesnt have to suppress votes and steal elections. A party aligned with the will of the people doesnt need to lie and cheat. Trumpism seems like a last gasp, a desperate last chance to hang on to whats slipping away. The old Soviet-satellite aphorism You can cut down the flowers but you cant stop the spring applies nicely.
The future of this country is white-minority. Yet the Republican party has done its best to alienate everybody else, while the rising majority of Americans support reproductive rights, climate action and many economic justice measures. The long-term progressive future of the United States seems almost inevitable. But with Trumpism still a force, the short-term future is alarming and unpredictable, and the damage may be lasting; whether its the prevention of climate action or the infliction of literal and financial violence on poor and marginalised people.
Enemies of authoritarianism and white supremacy have their work cut out, but the task is clear and straightforward: to protect the democratic process, upholding voting rights and free and fair elections, to try to win those elections for progressive candidates, and to articulate and defend the values behind those objectives.
Trump is treading water, but this is how resistance to Trumpism works, and how it can prevail if enough people work at it hard enough.
Originally posted here:
Donald Trumps power is fading: Trumpism is the clear and present danger now - The Guardian
- North Korea Wants to Convince the World It Can Nuke Hawaii. Donald Trump Is Happy to Oblige. - The Intercept [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2017]
- Donald Trump's peculiar obsession with authoritarian leaders - Chicago Tribune [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2017]
- Does Donald Trump Have Dementia? - The Root [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2017]
- Donald Trump Has Been Lying About The Size Of His Penthouse - Forbes [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2017]
- 'South Park' Creators Skirt Donald Trump Next Season Because Monkey Running Into Wall Can't Be Made Funnier - Deadline [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2017]
- AFT President: Betsy DeVos and Donald Trump Are Dismantling Public Education - TIME [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2017]
- This is the best news Donald Trump has had in a while - CNN [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2017]
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- Donald Trump - The New York Times [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2017]
- Make America Great Again! | Donald J Trump for President [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2017]
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- Amanda Knox: Donald Trump supported me when I was wrongly accused of murder. What do I owe him? - Los Angeles Times [Last Updated On: May 4th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 4th, 2017]
- Donald Trump Says Peace in the Middle East Is 'Not as Difficult as People Have Thought' - Newsweek [Last Updated On: May 4th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 4th, 2017]
- Donald Trump says he's a big fan of history. But he doesn't seem to trust historians. - Washington Post [Last Updated On: May 4th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 4th, 2017]
- Donald Trump Deletes Tweet Calling Mahmoud Abbas Meeting 'an Honor' - Newsweek [Last Updated On: May 6th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 6th, 2017]
- FCC to Investigate Stephen Colbert Over Controversial Donald Trump Joke - Variety [Last Updated On: May 6th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 6th, 2017]
- How Trump won another unlikely victory - CNN [Last Updated On: May 6th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 6th, 2017]
- Donald Trump's Tweets of the Week: Blasting North Korea, Shading the Democrats, Winning Bigly - Newsweek [Last Updated On: May 6th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 6th, 2017]
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- Martha Stewart Appears to Give Donald Trump the Middle Finger - Vanity Fair [Last Updated On: May 8th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 8th, 2017]
- Outside Donald Trump's offices, pigs will fly - The indy100 (satire) [Last Updated On: May 8th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 8th, 2017]
- President Trump seizes on election rules to push his agenda in new ways - USA TODAY [Last Updated On: May 8th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 8th, 2017]
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- Why Emmanuel Macron is the anti-Donald Trump - CNN [Last Updated On: May 8th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 8th, 2017]
- Donald Trump's highly abnormal presidency: a running guide for May - VICE News [Last Updated On: May 8th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 8th, 2017]
- Donald Trump Urges Senate Republicans to 'Not Let the American People Down' on Health Care - TIME [Last Updated On: May 8th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 8th, 2017]
- Donald Trump wants to ramp up America's presence in Afghanistan - Salon [Last Updated On: May 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 9th, 2017]
- Trevor Noah: Donald Trump Is 'Comedy Cocaine' - Variety [Last Updated On: May 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 9th, 2017]
- Donald Trump says Congress has too much power. He's wrong. - USA TODAY [Last Updated On: May 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 9th, 2017]
- Republicans abandon their virtues to stand behind Donald Trump and clap - Chicago Tribune [Last Updated On: May 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 9th, 2017]
- Donald Trump's New Website Features Military Personnel, Tweets, Merchandise - Newsweek [Last Updated On: May 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 9th, 2017]
- Donald Trump Can't Stop His Team from Undermining Him - GQ Magazine [Last Updated On: May 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 9th, 2017]
- Pipelines and Donald Trump: British Columbia Goes to the Polls - New York Times [Last Updated On: May 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 9th, 2017]
- Trump made one of his own tweets into a Twitter header. Cue the Twitter shade. - CNN [Last Updated On: May 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 9th, 2017]
- Read Donald Trump's Interview With TIME on Being President - TIME [Last Updated On: May 11th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 11th, 2017]
- Donald Trump Thinks He Invented a Phrase That's Been Around Since 1932 - Vanity Fair [Last Updated On: May 11th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 11th, 2017]
- Donald Trump After Hours - TIME [Last Updated On: May 11th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 11th, 2017]
- Donald Trump Is Launching a Panel to Investigate Voter Fraud - Fortune [Last Updated On: May 11th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 11th, 2017]
- Donald Trump thinks he invented the phrase 'priming the pump.' That's telling. - CNN [Last Updated On: May 11th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 11th, 2017]
- What Donald Trump doesn't understand about the federal government - Washington Post [Last Updated On: May 11th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 11th, 2017]
- Donald Trump, 'Brexit,' Snapchat: Your Thursday Briefing - New York Times [Last Updated On: May 11th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 11th, 2017]
- Donald Trump Backslides on Campaign Promise To Curb Legal Immigration - Breitbart News [Last Updated On: May 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 13th, 2017]
- James Comey, Donald Trump, San Antonio Spurs: Your Friday ... - New York Times [Last Updated On: May 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 13th, 2017]
- Donald Trump's Financial Ties to Russian Oligarchs and Mobsters Detailed In Explosive New Documentary from the ... - AlterNet [Last Updated On: May 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 13th, 2017]
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- Donald Trump's tax law firm has 'deep' ties to Russia - ABC News [Last Updated On: May 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 13th, 2017]
- Is Donald Trump boosting the economy? Goldman finds mixed signals - MarketWatch [Last Updated On: May 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 13th, 2017]
- Does Donald Trump want to be president? - Fox News [Last Updated On: May 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 13th, 2017]
- Donald Trump la Mode - New York Times [Last Updated On: May 14th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 14th, 2017]
- Yet another reason Donald Trump is bad news: He's utterly lacking in integrative complexity and that's dangerous - Salon [Last Updated On: May 14th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 14th, 2017]
- Today Marks Trump's Twenty-First Visit to a Golf Club Since Becoming President - Vanity Fair [Last Updated On: May 14th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 14th, 2017]
- Who Is Mary Anne Trump? Donald Trump's Immigrant Mother Came To America For A Better Life - Newsweek [Last Updated On: May 14th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 14th, 2017]
- Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey supports Donald Trump's use of the social media platform - Los Angeles Times [Last Updated On: May 14th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 14th, 2017]
- Donald Trump's Mother's Day proclamation is straight out of The Handmaid's Tale - Quartz [Last Updated On: May 14th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 14th, 2017]
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- 'Our Institutions Are Under Assault' - HuffPost [Last Updated On: May 14th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 14th, 2017]
- Donald Trump's disastrously bad week in Washington - CNN [Last Updated On: May 14th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 14th, 2017]
- What Donald Trump said about the spread of classified material during the campaign - PolitiFact [Last Updated On: May 17th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 17th, 2017]
- Donald Trump's plan to disenfranchise minority voters - The Hill (blog) [Last Updated On: May 17th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 17th, 2017]
- Donald Trump, douard Philippe, Ransomware: Your Tuesday Briefing - New York Times [Last Updated On: May 17th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 17th, 2017]
- Republican Congress won't rein in Donald Trump - USA TODAY [Last Updated On: May 17th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 17th, 2017]
- Donald Trump Is a Stress Test for Democracy and We Are Failing - Slate Magazine [Last Updated On: May 17th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 17th, 2017]
- Donald Trump, Ransomware, North Carolina: Your Tuesday Briefing - New York Times [Last Updated On: May 17th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 17th, 2017]
- Donald Trump, Israel, Erdogan: Your Tuesday Evening Briefing - New York Times [Last Updated On: May 17th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 17th, 2017]
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- KING: Donald Trump has reached peak white privilege - New York Daily News [Last Updated On: May 18th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 18th, 2017]
- How Trump learned about the special prosecutor - Politico [Last Updated On: May 18th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 18th, 2017]
- Stephen Colbert Uses 'Let It Go' From 'Frozen' To Mock Donald Trump - HuffPost [Last Updated On: May 18th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 18th, 2017]
- Donald Trump Said Saudi Arabia Was Behind 9/11. Now He's Going There on His First Foreign Trip. - The Intercept [Last Updated On: May 18th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 18th, 2017]
- Chinese propagandists are using adorable kids to take on Donald Trump - Washington Post [Last Updated On: May 18th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 18th, 2017]
- Donald Trump, Emmanuel Macron, Google: Your Thursday Briefing - New York Times [Last Updated On: May 18th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 18th, 2017]
- Trump's Loyalty Test - TIME [Last Updated On: May 18th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 18th, 2017]
- Donald Trump: Come out, come out, wherever you are - The Hill (blog) [Last Updated On: May 20th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 20th, 2017]
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