Donald Trump ‘laying the groundwork’ for another presidential run – DW (English)

At a recent rally in Texas, Donald Trump talked about Hillary Clinton and how the 2020 election was allegedlystolen from him through voter fraud.

"The 2020 election was rigged and everyone knows it," Trump asserted, even though all such claims have been thoroughly disproved. The US Supreme Court, which is majority conservative thanks to judges put on the bench by Trump himself, has thrown out a lawsuit seeking to overturn election results in four battleground states.

If this rhetoric sounds familiar, it's because the messaging at Trump rallies today consists of bits and pieces he's been using since he first ran for president (such as the hatred against Hillary Clinton) and the voter fraud conspiracy he's been focused on since his 2020 loss.

"He is doing what he's always done: playing to his base and throwing them red meat," said Brandon Conradis, a campaign editor at the political news site The Hill and a former newswriter with DW. "It's the greatest hits, still."

On January 6, thousands of supporters of former President Donald Trump flocked to the US Capitol, waving flags and claiming the election had been stolen from their political idol. Later, some 800 protesters stormed the iconic building, hunting down lawmakers, beating up police officers and leaving a trail of destruction. Five people died in connection with the riot and dozens were injured.

Many observers later said the riot marked an attempt to overthrow the government, instigated or orchestrated by the former president. A select committee of the US House of Representatives has begun investigating the events, and Trump's possible role in them. For his part, Trump has claimed there was "love in the air" on January 6.

The Capitol riot sparked global outrage. Many Republicans still, however, say the incident was a legitimate means of protest against what they claim was a rigged election. Some Republicans have even staged rallies outside US prisons in support of jailed rioters. The exact interpretation of the January 6 events will certainly have a big impact on the US midterm elections in November 2022.

Hundreds of individuals are facing prosecution over their role in the January 6 attack. So far, over 50 people have been sentenced for their actions on that day. Many left a slew of evidence on social media, boasting of their crimes, which has helped in handing down convictions. Defendants willing to plead guilty can hope to receive a reduced sentence.

The city of Washington, D.C, is suing members of the right-wing extremist group Proud Boys, loyal Trump supporters, to recoup damages for the Capitol attack. Authorities have accused the group's leaders of having conspired "to terrorize the District of Columbia" in "a coordinated act of domestic terrorism." Criminal charges have already been brought against several Proud Boys members.

Radio host and conspiracy theorist Alex Jones is considered a key instigator of the Capitol riot. He drummed up support for the pro-Trump march in Washington, calling for a million people to turn up and protest against allegedly corrupt Democratic Party. The congressional panel investigating the events of January 6 has found Jones helped finance the rally.

Images of Jacob Chansley, a topless, tattooed rioter wearing a striking, horned headdress, went around the globe. He soon became a symbol of the January 6 attack. Now, the self-proclaimed "QAnon Shaman" and conspiracy theorist from Phoenix, Arizona, has pleaded guilty and been sentenced to 3 1/2 years in jail.

Capitol Police officer Aquilino Gonell broke down as he rewatched footage of the deadly riot during a hearing of the congressional panel investigating the attack in July. That day, Gonell recalls, he thought "this is how I'm going to die, defending this entrance." One of Gonell's fellow police officers was killed in the Capitol riot, and four others committed suicide in the months that followed.

The reason die-hard Trump supporters managed to force their way into the Capitol is that US security agencies were unprepared. The US Senate found that despite warning signs of a potential attack, the police leadership failed to act: National Guard reinforcements were called in too late, and the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security downplayed the threat of violence.

Many political analysts predict Donald Trump will run again in the 2024 presidential election. While his supporters would be elated, critics would surely regard this as a nightmare come true. Until now, Trump has weathered practically all political scandals not even his role in the January 6 Capitol attack seems to have undermined a potential comeback.

Author: Oliver Pieper, Goran Cutanoski

Trump also came out with a new hit single, if you will, during his rally in Conroe last weekend. The former president spoke out stronger than he ever had before in favor of the insurrectionists who stormed the US Capitol in Washington on January 6, 2021.

"If I run and if I win," he said, referring to the 2024 presidential election, "we will treat those people from January 6 fairly. We will treat them fairly. And if it requires pardons, we will give them pardons because they are being treated so unfairly."

"When Trump says provocative things like this, he above all craves the attention," Michael Cornfield, associate professor of political management at George Washington University, told DW.

The violent attack on the Capitol saw an angry mob disrupting the session of Congress about to formalize Joe Biden's election win. Five people died, more than 700 have since been charged. As a result of the attack, Trump was impeached during his last days in office after being charged with "incitement of insurrection."

In the days following the Conroe rally, numerous high-profile Republicans have spoken out against Trump's idea of pardoning those who stormed the Capitol. South Carolina senator and well-known Trump ally Lindsey Graham said he hoped the perpetrators would "go to jail and get the book thrown at them because they deserve it."

New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu was also adamantly against the idea. "Of course not," Sununu told CNN when asked whether the Capitol rioters should be pardoned. "Oh my goodness. No."

But high-profile Republicans, observers say, aren't the target audience for Trump's contentious statements anyway.

"Trump doesn't care about" criticism from the high echelons of his party, Conradis said. "He is appealing to his base, and those who stormed the Capitol are definitely part of it. Those are the die-hard [supporters] who are going to vote for him no matter what."

Thousands of people turn up to Trump's rallies like this one in Georgia in June 2021

Keeping his supporters close will be crucial if Trump does decide to run again in the 2024 presidential election. Statements that begin with "If I run and if I win" certainly make it sound like another Trump candidacy is a likely scenario.

"Obviously anything could happen, but where things are right now, he definitely wants to run again and is laying the groundwork," Conradis said. "He doesn't want people to forget about him. He loves the spotlight, he is a showman and he wants the media coverage."

Cornfield is less sure. "He's an entertainer with an important political position and a political past. But his political future is very much up in the air," he said.

Either way should Trump decide to run again, things are looking good for the former president. In a poll first published by The Hill at the end of January, Trump garnered 57% of the vote in a hypothetical 8-candidate 2024 Republican primary, the first place by a wide margin. In second place with 12% is Florida governor Ron DeSantis.

Currently Trump leads polls among potential Republican presidential candidates

Trump has also built up an impressive war chest. He raised $51 million in the second half of 2021 alone, bringing his total funds to $122 million, according to federal filings. Many of those dollars came from small-time donors, "normal Americans," as Conradis put it. "That in itself tells you how much support he still has."

Cornfield points out that Trump has only spent a fraction of this money on supporting candidates on the local and state level in the midterm elections coming up this November. Normally, the politics professor explains, someone looking to run for president would spend much more this way. But he believes Trump is saving the money for something else.

"He's knee-deep in lawsuits and it could get worse," Cornfield said.

And good legal defense is expensive.

Of course, Trump might also hope that he won't have to face any judges at all if things go his way.

"Not to be too cynical, but one of his primary motivations for running again is that he will make the case that because he's a candidate for president, he's immune from prosecution," Cornfield said.

Whether that move would work is a different story. As of now, it's still not clear whether Trump will attempt to take back the White House. If he does, though, the Democrats would face a serious opponent.

"Trump is still the person elected in 2016," Conradis said. "That's why he could win again."

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Donald Trump 'laying the groundwork' for another presidential run - DW (English)