The Supreme Court Is More Unpopular Than Ever. That Could Help Democrats. – FiveThirtyEight

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The Supreme Courts conservative justices arent on the ballot this November. But for Democratic voters, the upcoming midterms are looking more and more like a referendum on the countrys high court.

In late June, when the Supreme Court overturned the constitutional right to abortion in a contentious and divided ruling, Republicans had a solid 2-percentage-point lead over Democrats in generic-ballot polling, which asks Americans whether they plan to support Republicans or Democrats in the upcoming congressional election. A little over two months later, though, and abortion is mostly or completely illegal in 14 states and those generic-ballot polls look very different. According to FiveThirtyEights average, Democrats now have more than a 1-point lead over Republicans.

Thats a remarkable shift in a year when Republicans should have the wind at their back normally, the presidents party loses seats in the midterm elections. And although things could change in the months leading up to November, theres mounting evidence that the Supreme Courts ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Womens Health Organization is galvanizing Democrats and shaking up the political landscape in the process.

A Pew Research Center poll conducted Aug. 1-14 found that more Americans have an unfavorable view of the Supreme Court than at any other point since Pew began asking the question just over 35 years ago. Only 28 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents have a favorable view of the Supreme Court, down 18 points since January and nearly 40 points since August 2020. Republicans views of the court, meanwhile, have gotten a bit more positive since the beginning of the year, which has created a gaping 45-point partisan gap in the Supreme Courts favorability rating.

Its not just that views of the court are changing the importance of abortion as an issue priority is also skyrocketing for Democrats in the wake of the Supreme Courts decision. According to the same Pew survey, the economy remains voters top issue overall, but the share of Democrats who say abortion is a very important issue for the midterm elections rose from 46 percent in March to 71 percent in August. Meanwhile, in a Gallup poll conducted July 5-26, 13 percent of Democrats said that abortion issues were the most important problem facing the country driving record-high levels of concern among Americans overall. An additional 9 percent of Democrats said that the judicial system and the courts were the most important problem.

This heightened focus on abortion and the court seems to be having a real effect on the midterms, too, with Democrats and independents saying in polls that they have a greater desire to vote for candidates who share their views on abortion. According to a Kaiser Family Foundation poll conducted July 7-17, for instance, nearly three-quarters (72 percent) of Democratic voters and 56 percent of independent voters say the Supreme Courts decision in Dobbs has made them more motivated to consider a candidates position on abortion. However, 62 percent of Republicans said the decision hadnt made a difference to them.

Americans cant vote Supreme Court justices off the bench, of course, but the Pew survey suggests that Democrats are more and more likely to think the court has too much authority. A solid majority (64 percent) of Democrats say the Supreme Court has too much power, up from only 23 percent in August 2020. Increasingly, Democrats also say that the justices are not making politically neutral decisions. Just over half (51 percent) of Democrats say the justices are doing a poor job of keeping their own politics out of their decision-making, up from 26 percent in January.

Even Republicans are somewhat divided on this question: One-third (33 percent) of Republicans said the court was doing an excellent or good job of keeping politics out of their decision-making, while 25 percent said the court was doing a fair job and 12 percent said it was doing a poor job. (An additional 15 percent of Republicans said they werent sure, and 13 percent said the Supreme Court justices should bring their own political views into their decision-making.)

This isnt the first time that anger surrounding the Supreme Court has reshaped a midterm election. In 2018, the fight over Justice Brett Kavanaughs confirmation to the court appeared to help Republican candidates in some key Senate races. At the same time, however, there were signs that year that the changing makeup of the Supreme Court and the possible impact on abortion rights was raising the salience of the issue for Democrats. That didnt seem to pay off for Democrats in the 2018 midterms since their base was motivated by other issues, but 2022 may be different.

According to FiveThirtyEights presidential approval tracker, 42.4 percent of Americans approve of the job Biden is doing as president, while 53.2 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -10.8 points). At this time last week, 42.7 percent approved and 53.0 percent disapproved (a net approval rating of -10.3 points). One month ago, Biden had an approval rating of 39.6 percent and a disapproval rating of 55.7 percent, for a net approval rating of -16.1 points.

In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead by 1.2 points (44.9 percent to 43.7 percent). A week ago, Democrats led Republicans by 0.9 points (44.6 percent to 43.6 percent). At this time last month, voters preferred Democrats by 0.1 points (44.3 percent to 44.1 percent).

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The Supreme Court Is More Unpopular Than Ever. That Could Help Democrats. - FiveThirtyEight