The Democrats Have a Lot of Cutting to Do – The New York Times

To win over their most centrist members, the Democrats will need to fit all their wishes into the smaller box.

Family proposals ~$1.9 trillion

Climate proposals ~$0.6 trillion

Child care and

universal preschool

Renewable energy tax credits

Clean

electricity

program

Clean air, water and

energy efficiency

Child and dependent

care tax credit;

caregiver expenses

New federal Medicaid program

Expanded

premium

tax credits

Medicaid

funding

for home

health

care

Medicare vision, hearing

and dental benefits

Health proposals ~$1.0 trillion

Other proposals ~$1.1 trillion

in spending increases

and tax cuts over 10 years

Family proposals ~$1.9 trillion

Climate proposals ~$0.6 trillion

Child care and

universal preschool

Renewable energy

tax credits

Clean

electricity

program

Clean air, water and

energy efficiency

Child and dependent

care tax credit;

caregiver expenses

New federal Medicaid program

Expanded

premium

tax credits

Medicaid

funding

for home

health

care

Medicare vision, hearing

and dental benefits

Health proposals ~$1.0 trillion

Other proposals ~$1.1 trillion

in spending increases

and tax cuts over 10 years

Family proposals

~$1.9 trillion

Climate proposals

~$0.6 trillion

Child care and

universal

preschool

Renewable

energy

tax credits

Clean electricity program

Clean air,

water and

energy

efficiency

Earned-

income

tax credit

Child care

tax credit;

caregivers

New federal

Medicaid program

Medicare vision,

hearing and dental

benefits

Health proposals

~$1.0 trillion

Other proposals

~$1.1 trillion

in spending increases

and tax cuts over 10 years

Source: Cost estimates compiled by Don Schneider, Cornerstone Macro

As Democrats in Congress debate how to pare back their big social spending bill to a total budget increase of less than $2 trillion over a decade they have even further to go than it may appear.

The Congressional Budget Office has said it is unclear when it will provide official estimates for the entire proposal written by the House last month. So weve turned to what several budget experts say are the best available estimates of the cost of everything in the bill, compiled by Don Schneider, an economist at Cornerstone Macro. The figures, detailed in the tables below, show that lawmakers starting point is far higher than the $3.5 trillion number they had used to describe the package initially.

All the new spending and new tax cuts and credits in the bill add up to closer to $4.7 trillion over a decade, the result of an ambitious agenda and some optimistic thinking about the price tag. The target number President Biden discussed with lawmakers this week would be less than half as much, an effort to win the votes of reluctant centrist Democrats. Lawmakers have also proposed a series of tax increases and spending cuts to substantially offset those costs.

Wherever possible, Mr. Schneider used numbers from the official scorekeepers the C.B.O. or the Joint Committee on Taxation. Some of the other figures were provided by House committee fact sheets or were estimated based on official scores of similar legislation.

Mr. Schneider was a Republican congressional staffer before taking his current job, and he personally has concerns about the budgetary effects of the legislation. But he said his estimates were not intended to exaggerate the costs of the bill, but to help investors understand the possible effects of the legislation.

Im serving market participants, he said. This is my best guess of what it is.

Democratic leaders have signaled that programs to help children and families will be a major focus of the legislation, and the House bill includes a number of such policies. The child tax credit was written as a near-universal policy of monthly payments to parents with children for four additional years. A program would subsidize child care for families that use it. Another would help states establish pre-kindergarten classes in public schools. The legislation would expand the Family and Medical Leave Act to provide paid leave to workers when they need to miss work because of childbirth or family illness.

OFFICIAL ESTIMATES IN GREEN

Provision

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The Democrats Have a Lot of Cutting to Do - The New York Times