Pennsylvania’s Senate race is a bellwether for Democrats in 2022 and beyond | TheHill – The Hill

Democrats midterm election prospects are daunting.

They are defending razor-thin majorities in the House and Senate in a year when voters arepessimisticabout the state of the country and the economy and arefrustratedthat the party has moved increasingly to the left.

Democrats are also faced with a problematic internal chasm between progressives and moderates a dynamic that plagued President BidenJoe BidenRussian rocket attacks wound five in western Ukraine city of Lviv If we de-list the IRGC, what will the dictators think? Biden to propose minimum tax on billionaires in budget MOREs first year in office and is now a defining feature of Democratic Primary contests across the country.

Consequently, there are two major questions heading into the 2022 midterms:

First, will Democrats be able to turn around this unfavorable political climate by delivering on a more centrist yet still forward-looking agenda in order to win key toss-up races?

Second (which will portend the answer to the first), will the moderate wing of the Democratic Party that has a much broader national appeal compared to progressivism ultimately prevail in primary contests?

In the coming months, we will be able to answer both questions by focusing on one contest in particular: the Pennsylvania Senate race. The result of this Democratic primary will be a bellwether for the partys national performance in November; and at the same time, the outcome of this general election will provide a strong indication of the partys current and future political viability.

Generally speaking, statewide races in swing states, especially without an incumbent, are often indicative of the current national political environment. The Pennsylvania Senate race fits the bill: it involves an open-seat Republican Sen. Pat ToomeyPatrick (Pat) Joseph ToomeyThe Supreme Court just made a US-EU Privacy Shield agreement even harder The Hill's Morning Report - Biden on Russia: Distrust and verify Overnight Health Care Biden eyes additional COVID-19 funding MORE is retiring in a toss-up state that Joe Biden won in 2020 after Donald TrumpDonald TrumpBiden administration names FAA safety official as agency's acting chief Pennsylvania Senate primaries get personal Can Rick Scott trump Ron DeSantis to win the GOP base? MORE carried it in 2016.

Notably, the political power and tendencies of suburban voters in Pennsylvania mirror those of national suburban votersan important parallel, as suburban areas are the last remaining competitive areas left in the country, perDoug Sosniks recent analysis.

Indeed, elections both nationwide, and in Pennsylvania are won or lost in the suburbs. In 2020, the enthusiastic turnout for Democratsin the suburbs of Philadelphiapropelled Joe Biden to victory in the state and helped him win the presidency, along with his strong showings in the suburbs of Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin.

In 2018, suburban voters in Pennsylvania reelected Democrats in statewide races and secured upset wins for Democrats in local contests a trend that illustrated the partys strong performance nationally.

However, in the 2021 elections, there was ashift toward the G.O.Pin the Pennsylvania suburbs similar to suburbs across the country, even in blue states. In statewide elections inVirginiaandNew Jersey, as well as local races inNew Yorks Long Island suburbs, there was a demonstrable swing toward the G.O.P. that was driven by suburban voters defecting from Democrats.

Why did this shift occur, and what can Democrats do to prevent it from continuing in 2022?

Sosniks analysis provides critical insight. He notes that suburban voters main misgivings about the G.O.P. center on anti-Trump attitudes; while on the Democratic side, suburban voters dislike the culture wars and identity politics that are pervasive on the left, are concerned about rising crime, and arent looking for an expansive or intrusive federal government.

Thus, in 2021, Democrats alienated suburban voters in Pennsylvania and elsewhere because the party was viewed as being supportive of big spending plans, and as embracing or at the very least, not discrediting the identity politics and culture wars of the progressive wing.

At the same time, these voters clearly view Republicans more favorably without Donald Trump. In Trumps absence, Republicans found a viable model for a candidate with a suburban appeal: Glenn YoungkinGlenn YoungkinJudge rules 12 Virginia families with immunocompromised kids can ask schools to require masks Majority believes public schools on wrong track: poll Youngkin's crusade against equity hurts white people too MORE, the newly elected governor of Virginia. Youngkin was thought of as a more moderate Republican who spoke to issues that suburban voters in particular care about: lower taxes, less government interference in schools and businesses, and lowering crime.

In this sense, the general election for Pennsylvanias Senate seat will ultimately be a dry run and potentially a harbinger for the 2024 presidential election. Indeed, the frontrunner in the G.O.P. primary in Pennsylvania hedge fund CEO Dave McCormick, who has a9-point advantageover Mehmet OzMehmet OzPennsylvania Senate primaries get personal Biden asks Herschel Walker and Mehmet Oz to quit council or be ousted The Hill's Morning Report - Jackson fends off attacks; Biden to Europe MORE is working to delicately balance, as Youngkin did, the Trump-wing of the party with the moderate side.

Ultimately, if Democrats are unable to advance a national agenda this year that is centered on core moderate themes, Republicans will have a much better chance at winning the Senate seat in Pennsylvania, and of retaking control of Congress.

That being said, Democrats ability to convincingly make this strategic shift to the center by November hinges in large part on the success, or lack thereof, of moderates in key primary races across the country. In a number of congressional races and some Senate races, moderate Democrats are facing primary challenges from the left, as is the case in the Pennsylvania Senate race.

In Pennsylvania, the progressive Lieutenant Governor, Josh Fetterman, is in a close contest with Rep. Connor Lamb, who is backed by the establishment and is viewed as a more moderate, conventional candidate who has more crossover appeal to suburban voters.

Put another way, while a Fetterman win would be a daunting indicator for the Democrats chances of retaining control of Congress in the general election, a Lamb victory would be an encouraging sign for the party.

Indeed, Lamb winning would indicate that the Democratic Party is choosing to embrace a more moderate, effective and electable approach and at the same time, would show that Democrats have a fighting chance to regain their footing among suburban voters in Pennsylvania, and across the country.

Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an adviser to former President Clinton and to the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael BloombergMichael BloombergHow Biden and Democrats can stack up legislative wins before November Biden's State of the Union address won't help Democrats politically This SOTU, Biden can win back voters with a plan for lower drug prices MORE. He is the author of The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat." Zoe Young is vice president of Schoen Cooperman Research.

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Pennsylvania's Senate race is a bellwether for Democrats in 2022 and beyond | TheHill - The Hill