James Carville is scared to death about whether Sanders and others can beat Trump – Vox.com

James Carville is scared to death of the November 2020 election.

In a rant on MSNBC that went viral on Tuesday evening, the longtime Democratic strategist vented his concerns about the partys prospects for beating Donald Trump, taking particular aim at the partys leftward lurch.

Eighteen percent of the population controls 52 Senate seats, Carville said. Weve got to be a majoritarian party. The urban core is not gonna get it done. What we need is power! Do you understand? Thats what this is about.

His diatribe took place against the backdrop of an Iowa caucus that had fallen into chaos and amid a rancorous ongoing debate among Democrats over the partys direction. He took particular aim at Sen. Bernie Sanders, who he fears could lead the party to defeat in November.

Carvilles lament distills a concern among the Democratic Partys establishment: Will ideological purity and playing to the base cost the Democrats victory in November? For Carville, at least, We have one moral imperative, and thats to beat Donald Trump. That his comments went viral speaks to the sense of urgency among Democrats, even as it only fuels the debate over the direction of the party.

I spoke with Carville this week by phone. We discussed where he thinks the Democrats went wrong, what it will take to build a majoritarian party in this climate, and why he doesnt have a lot of confidence in the current field of candidates.

A lightly edited transcript of our conversation follows.

Why are you scared to death about the 2020 election?

Look, the turnout in the Iowa caucus was below what we expected, what we wanted. Trumps approval rating is probably as high as its been. This is very bad. And now it appears the party cant even count votes. What the hell am I supposed to think?

Ill just say it this way: The fate of the world depends on the Democrats getting their shit together and winning in November. We have to beat Trump. And so far, I dont like what I see. And a lot of people I talk to feel the same way.

Whats gone wrong? Whos responsible?

I dont know. We just had an election in 2018. We did great. We talked about everything we needed to talk about, and we won. And now its like were losing our damn minds. Someones got to step their game up here.

What does that mean?

In 2018, Democrats recruited really strong candidates, really qualified candidates. And the party said, This is what were going to talk about and were going to keep talking about it. And you know what happened? We fucking won. We didnt get distracted, we didnt get deflected.

Give me an example of what you mean by distractions.

We have candidates on the debate stage talking about open borders and decriminalizing illegal immigration. Theyre talking about doing away with nuclear energy and fracking. Youve got Bernie Sanders talking about letting criminals and terrorists vote from jail cells. It doesnt matter what you think about any of that, or if there are good arguments talking about that is not how you win a national election. Its not how you become a majoritarian party.

For fucks sake, weve got Trump at Davos talking about cutting Medicare and no one in the party has the sense to plaster a picture of him up there sucking up to the global elites, talking about cutting taxes for them while hes talking about cutting Medicare back home. Jesus, this is so obvious and so easy and I dont see any of the candidates taking advantage of it.

The Republicans have destroyed their party and turned it into a personality cult, but if anyone thinks they cant win, theyre out of their damn minds.

I wouldnt endorse everything every Democrat is doing or saying, but are they really destroying the party? What does that even mean?

Look, Bernie Sanders isnt a Democrat. Hes never been a Democrat. Hes an ideologue. And Ive been clear about this: If Bernie is the nominee, Ill vote for him. No question. Ill take an ideological fanatic over a career criminal any day. But hes not a Democrat.

You know people are going to read this and say, Carville backed Clinton in 2016. So did the Democratic establishment. They blew it in 2016. Why should I care what any of them think now?

People will say anything. And first of all, Clinton won the popular vote by almost 3 million. And secondly, the Russians put Jill Stein in front of Clintons campaign to depress votes. And thirdly, the New York Times a week before an election, assured its readers that the Russians were not even trying to help Trump. And then they wrote 15,000 stories about Hillarys emails.

But back to Sanders what Im saying is the Democratic Party isnt Bernie Sanders, whatever you think about Sanders.

A lot of threads there. First, a lot of people dont trust the Democratic Party, dont believe in the party, for reasons youve already mentioned, and so they just dont care about that. They want change. And I guess the other thing Id say is, 2016 scrambled our understanding of whats possible in American politics.

Are we really sure Sanders cant win?

Who the hell knows? But heres what I do know: Sanders might get 280 electoral votes and win the presidency and maybe we keep the House. But theres no chance in hell well ever win the Senate with Sanders at the top of the party defining it for the public. Eighteen percent of the country elects more than half of our senators. Thats the deal, fair or not.

So long as [Mitch] McConnell runs the Senate, its game over. Theres no chance well change the courts, and nothing will happen, and hell just be sitting up there screaming in the microphone about the revolution.

The purpose of a political party is to acquire power. All right? Without power, nothing matters.

Whats the answer?

By framing, repeating, and delivering a coherent, meaningful message that is relevant to peoples lives and having the political skill not to be sucked into every rabbit hole that somebody puts in front of you.

The Democratic Party is the party of African Americans. Its becoming a party of educated suburbanites, particularly women. Its the party of Latinos. Were a party of immigrants. Most of the people arent into all this distracting shit about open borders and letting prisoners vote. They dont care. They have lives to lead. They have kids. They have parents that are sick. Thats what we have to talk about. Thats all we should talk about.

Its not that this stuff doesnt matter. And its not that we shouldnt talk about race. We have to talk about race. Its about how you deliver and frame the message. I thought Cory Bookers baby bonds plan was great and the kind of thing the party could connect to peoples actual lives.

We have one moral imperative here, and thats beating Trump. Nothing else matters.

So your complaint is basically that the party has tacked too far to the left?

Theyve tacked off the damn radar screen. And look, I dont consider myself a moderate or a centrist. Im a liberal. But not everything has to be on the left-right continuum. I love Warrens day care plan just like I love Bookers baby bonds. Thats the kind of stuff our candidates should explain and define clearly and repeatedly for voters and not get diverted by whatever the hell is in the air that day.

Heres another stupid thing: Democrats talking about free college tuition or debt forgiveness. Im not here to debate the idea. What I can tell you is that people all over this country worked their way through school, sent their kids to school, paid off student loans. They dont want to hear this shit. And you saw Warren confronted by an angry voter over this. Its just not a winning message.

The real argument here is that some people think theres a real yearning for a left-wing revolution in this country, and if we just appeal to the people who feel that, well grow and excite them and well win. But theres a word a lot of people hate that I love: politics. It means building coalitions to win elections. It means sometimes having to sit back and listen to what people think and framing your message accordingly.

Thats all I care about. Right now the most important thing is getting this career criminal whos stealing everything that isnt nailed down out of the White House. We cant do anything for anyone if we dont start there and then acquire more power.

Can I say one more thing about the cultural disconnect?

Sure.

I want to give you an example of the problem here. A few weeks ago, Binyamin Appelbaum, an economics writer for the New York Times, posted a snarky tweet about how LSU canceled classes for the National Championship game. And then he said, do the Warren/Sanders free public college proposals include LSU, or would it only apply to actual schools?

You know how fucking patronizing that is to people in the South or in the middle of the country? First, LSU has an unusually high graduation rate, but thats not the point. Its the goddamn smugness. This is from a guy who lives in New York and serves on the Times editorial board and theres not a single person he knows that doesnt pat him on the back for that kind of tweet. Hes so fucking smart.

Appelbaum doesnt speak for the Democratic Party, but he does represent the urbanist mindset. We cant win the Senate by looking down at people. The Democratic Party has to drive a narrative that doesnt give off vapors that were smarter than everyone or culturally arrogant.

A lot of Democratic candidates dont talk like that. Warren doesnt talk like that. Sanders doesnt talk like that. Buttigieg doesnt talk like that. Cory Booker never talked like that.

Warren knows her stuff, and Im particularly hard on her, because she was the star pupil, the one who was smart, had a good story. But I think she gets distracted and loses her core anti-corruption message, which resonates. With a lot of these candidates, their consultants are telling them, If you doubt it, just go left. We got to get the nomination.

And then Biden gets in and blocks out good candidates like Cory Booker or Michael Bennet or Steve Bullock by occupying this mainstream lane. There just isnt enough oxygen and they couldnt get any traction. But these are serious people, professional people, and they couldve delivered a winning message.

Are you confident that any of the remaining candidates can beat Trump?

I dont know, I just dont know. Im hoping that someone gets knocked off their horse on the road to Damascus.

Buttigieg seems to model the sort of candidate you think can win.

Mayor Pete has to demonstrate over the course of a campaign that he can excite and motivate arguably the most important constituents in the Democratic Party: African Americans. These voters are a hell of a lot more important than a bunch of 25-year-olds shouting everyone down on Twitter.

I take all your points about power and the Senate and the need to be a majoritarian party. I just wonder where the limits are, especially in this media ecosystem where even the best Democratic messaging gets deformed and bastardized in right-wing media and thus never reaches the people Democrats need to reach, or at least doesnt reach enough of them.

I think the other side wants us to think there are no swing voters, that were doomed and it doesnt even matter if you have a message because you cant reach anyone. I think thats bullshit. I think thats a wholly incorrect view of American politics. But look, if no ones persuadable, then lets just have the revolution.

Falling into despair wont help anyone, though. I mean, you can curse the darkness or you can light a candle. Im getting a fucking welding torch. Okay?

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James Carville is scared to death about whether Sanders and others can beat Trump - Vox.com